tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-154250642024-03-28T07:24:09.063+00:00Lewy LandExtropian contemplations on science, tech, society and cultureZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.comBlogger142125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-67024325042949739262023-07-17T21:33:00.006+01:002023-07-20T16:21:22.986+01:00"Scale" by Greg Egan - review and critique<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div></div>► Review: I struggled to complete Scale; not up to the standard I expected from reading Schild's Ladder and <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/permutation-city-by-greg-egan-review.html">Permutation City</a>.<div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div><br /></div><div><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjakVBB3XmvCKP9ilfq7wVPkCa94HbCoRIJxmwmseWN2_IYJxH9uAAuE4OTYzUogqCWvRRG8myEDjJy1B3NzoLjzegtRR1LZrxza_DeasL1SVPenE2gdychl_GyzP7KE8o8P0zzBzN1mQ-mlXdL96QPwOJdhEwB30yB8u2hDJY4xihMSr7mZXdS" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;">
</a>The concept is cool, if ambitious to reconcile in the messy details. But I was continually frustrated that Egan gave so few descriptive details of the different perspectives of physics, in daily life experience for the smaller scales. He glossed over a very major plot detail and entirely ignored the issues of eg shared air. I think because it (and other things) were too implausible.</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjakVBB3XmvCKP9ilfq7wVPkCa94HbCoRIJxmwmseWN2_IYJxH9uAAuE4OTYzUogqCWvRRG8myEDjJy1B3NzoLjzegtRR1LZrxza_DeasL1SVPenE2gdychl_GyzP7KE8o8P0zzBzN1mQ-mlXdL96QPwOJdhEwB30yB8u2hDJY4xihMSr7mZXdS=w244-h320" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="244" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.gregegan.net/SCALE/SCALE.html" target="_blank">Scale</a> on Greg Egan's website.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div><div>It's mostly written as a straight detective mystery, from 3 main character perspectives. Which plays to his weakness of flat characters. Then, as politics becomes a major theme, that feels naïve, as if seen from space. And the bits of action aren't very thrilling.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'd have preferred to see more of his usual trick, of skipping ahead through time periods and settings. Thus exploring more of the technological changes, and timescale divergence, in this wild little civilisation. Perhaps he knew it couldn't hold together.</div><div><br /></div><div>Overall, I think this concept could have worked as a cheeky short story. Padding it out with human intrigue didn't work for me. I didn't care about Cara.</div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div>I was hoping it would become a metaphor for the <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2023/03/chatgpt-llms-and-unfolding-generative.html" target="_blank">seemingly imminent advent of AGI</a>, in real life. A cautionary tale for the likes of Eliezer Yudkowski to wield. But it was only a snapshot. And not all that artistically rendered. Didn't really accentuate (let alone lampoon) the timescale disparities. No whit.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'd instead strongly recommend reading his earlier novels, mentioned above.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>► Specific technical holes in world building & plot (<b>SPOILERS</b>):</div><div><br /></div><div>[<b>Edit:</b> <i>please see the comments on my </i><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/152in61/comment/jsjjosf/" style="font-style: italic;" target="_blank">Reddit post</a><i> version of this discussion for corrections to </i>some <i>of the goofs I made, from bad memory and judgement!</i>] </div><div><br /></div><div>• He states a couple of times that district 7 (D7) is <strike>only one metre across</strike> [<i>about ~150m</i>]. <strike>This doesn't tally with scale 7 humans being 64 times shorter: roughly equivalent to a Lego figure. That'd be a very small village</strike>, especially given how much more spread they need to be with their super-concentrated (full sized human) mass.</div><div><br /></div><div>• The under-river base is supposed to be the same <strike>1 metre</strike> size as the district (and also sub-divided into sections). Yet they fit a scale 1 lady into it..? Without harming her. </div><div><br /></div><div>1m square is a viably cramped space for a person. But they would also need to transport her there. <strike>So the submarine's *cargo bay* ,alone, would need to be about as big as the stated size of D7!?</strike></div><div><br /></div><div>• I don't know if his lepton explanation bears much relation to real atomic chemistry. It's been 2 decades since my failed physics degree and you can see the author's technical explanations <a href="https://www.gregegan.net/SCALE/01/ScienceOfScale.html#SEN" target="_blank">here on his site</a>. But it's clear that the scale-divided animal kingdom could not co-exist. Not in anything like the natural way of things we're used to. He mentions S4 people breaking their feet on S7 rats.</div><div><br /></div><div>But this would be everywhere, all the time, disrupting, poisoning and tearing apart the different scale animals and insects as they interact. Let alone microbes, etc.</div><div><br /></div><div>• He mentions the S7 water being far (far!) more dense than the (biologically inert) rock of the riverbed. Not knowing how much has seeped through to the Earth's mantle... </div><div><br /></div><div>Even if we ignore flow to the lowest point of the ocean floor, there's no way there'd be any left on it. Like liquid mercury atop soap bubbles! </div><div><br /></div><div>Worst still, how would it evaporate and stay suspended in the (ambiguous density) air? A water cycle would be needed, for life on land, before the development of irrigation. We only hear of S1 rain, clearly because S7 rain would shed the larger, softer scales!</div><div><br /></div><div>• Gravity is going to feel very slow [<i>or maybe the size scaling compensates the time scaling?</i>] and weak to S7 people. Pretty much irrelevant. But interia would be a bitch!</div><div><br /></div><div>And forget sinking into sand (which must all be scale 1l, there's no way they'd get any purchase for horizontal movement. To accelerate a whole human mass 64 times faster, by pushing against a foot surface area 64x64 times less…</div><div><br /></div><div>Even S1 granite would get shredded. So they would not be walking/running/driving around, conventionally, as described. Same and worst for all wildlife.</div><div><br /></div><div>• I'd have been happier to go along with glossing over all the above, from another writer, with a more lively and amusing narrative. But I expected a little more technical detail from Egan, here. Given the mediocre plot, that seemed rather low stakes compared to the other books I've read, of his.</div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-66366260256742292542023-03-21T06:29:00.044+00:002023-06-20T22:33:42.505+01:00ChatGPT, LLMs and the unfolding generative AI revolution<p>So, it seems like the future is here and rapidly unfolding! Ironically I've been struggling to even mention anything about recent machine learning events, here on this blog. Despite AI being such a big feature of its theme on exponential tech changes...</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhARL4SNqBCDlxiDd63BPJyThOuV-FUOO5gHqY4ipq2-U05tGX8YPO0m_5Ha6OSk2VTqPPJgWoPlq2rllBT6PvKsF5mfypN3OjFRtCzaXqup0rdFkgVb0y_0DyDfLROH0UKKKhwj62tUXI-9a2xRXG1_wmnL1vM8lsGJ72VE9EXy3-2UEtBiw" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="512" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhARL4SNqBCDlxiDd63BPJyThOuV-FUOO5gHqY4ipq2-U05tGX8YPO0m_5Ha6OSk2VTqPPJgWoPlq2rllBT6PvKsF5mfypN3OjFRtCzaXqup0rdFkgVb0y_0DyDfLROH0UKKKhwj62tUXI-9a2xRXG1_wmnL1vM8lsGJ72VE9EXy3-2UEtBiw=w400-h400" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">New Scientist style chatbot illustration generated using <a href="https://stablediffusionweb.com/" target="_blank">StableDiffusion</a></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg753yIqElIgX8xCHyGUAdiQDJjFLwz1wxIMAq-yf3wicczdMzbb5ASpY4gV8d07QChbkqF5QdTJ0vPKr7STR53DxwJRi5tPDiyQJm2K7TQ-IYEiU9s_E_QVzlbDJJY9XLa_CIZ2Bm4JY4PwZLsuD3yzW2S_n5tle-jzfqEy_kohH5HxIKdmg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="505" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg753yIqElIgX8xCHyGUAdiQDJjFLwz1wxIMAq-yf3wicczdMzbb5ASpY4gV8d07QChbkqF5QdTJ0vPKr7STR53DxwJRi5tPDiyQJm2K7TQ-IYEiU9s_E_QVzlbDJJY9XLa_CIZ2Bm4JY4PwZLsuD3yzW2S_n5tle-jzfqEy_kohH5HxIKdmg" width="285" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">5 days to 1M users! The fastest growing web<br /> service, ever. From <a href="https://twitter.com/Kelly_StaySalty/status/1600958150189805568" target="_blank">Twitter</a> via <a href="https://youtu.be/0uQqMxXoNVs" target="_blank">YouTube</a>.</td></tr></tbody></table>To recap: from the middle of 2022, there was simmering online interest in the spectacle of AI generated art via text prompts: <a href="https://openai.com/product/dall-e-2" target="_blank">DALL-E</a> vs <a href="https://stablediffusionweb.com/" target="_blank">Stable Diffusion</a>.<p></p><p>Also, Google's firing of a senior software engineer who was claiming sentience and personhood for their LaMDA chatbot (e.g. <a href="LaMDA" target="_blank">Guardian</a>). Which kicked off nervous discussion.</p><p>Then, at the end of the year, OpenAI unleashed ChatGPT-3 to the public, making a huge splash in the process! Machine learning has sustained main stream awareness through 2023, so far, with news hype hitting fever pitch in tech circles, over the last week of announcements. E.g. on YouTube <a href="https://www.youtube.com/live/m4RolgXsoxY?feature=share&t=5356" target="_blank">LTT wan show from here</a> and <a href="https://youtu.be/39YQFrmZhH4" target="_blank">Matt Wolfe</a>.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtHp-YIp5k082OWxenh7HzTn0entaulqoayjxaVvrTaANxYejTWEBt9cyFSd_yVqRtgF3afCTtHJI6uyNnoFUN8NVoH11rCfczq6Wr2lt5t1L4hTPHSZj4u6_8nzl3W2U1TlSt5nJSUrBfxXyS5NZpjjSuSr7msP0RNG0qWwutN_Y5c7v8PQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="759" data-original-width="1280" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjtHp-YIp5k082OWxenh7HzTn0entaulqoayjxaVvrTaANxYejTWEBt9cyFSd_yVqRtgF3afCTtHJI6uyNnoFUN8NVoH11rCfczq6Wr2lt5t1L4hTPHSZj4u6_8nzl3W2U1TlSt5nJSUrBfxXyS5NZpjjSuSr7msP0RNG0qWwutN_Y5c7v8PQ=w640-h380" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">As talked about in many sources, machine learning has been advancing up a much steeper exponential curve than Moore's law, both GPU hardware advancing faster and ever bigger datasets being trained on. </td></tr></tbody></table><br />Of course, the main reason I've struggled to keep fully abreast of these exciting developments: I'm still struggling with the <a href="https://me-pedia.org/wiki/Primer_for_patients" target="_blank">ME/CFS</a>. As I've lamented on <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1619195499780911105" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, this blocked my desired career path into academic AI/robotics. Being forced to give up on 3rd year studies just over 15 short years ago. And in my small amounts of productive time, during the last year, I've been working on informational resources (e.g. <a href="https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197971318812/myworkshopfiles/?section=guides&appid=1621690" target="_blank">Steam guides</a>) and other things in the <a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/1621690/Core_Keeper/" target="_blank">Core Keeper</a> community. Which is <i>sometimes </i>within my cognitively impaired abstraction limit.<p></p><p>Anyway, I'm aiming for this post to be ongoing, like the previous Covid posts. Updated with my thoughts and new events as they unfold. Because I don't have the executive function to write a big piece with an overarching narrative. If I've ever really achieved that here before, heh.</p><p>I've no hope of capturing any of the soap opera of corporate and big-player drama, or even most of the notable offerings. Let alone the technical details of how the systems opera. So really, this is largely an exercise (as always) in showing that I was here and I maybe understood some fraction of what was going on. Maybe an aide memoire for me, like taking notes in class. </p><p>I'm also explicitly aware that the ever-growing LLM training data with likely include this text at some point, too! Which is very meta and a little thrilling to see happening already.</p><p>I'll start by catching up on some backdated bits and pieces...</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-01-18 [Backdated] - Notes on talking to Chat GPT:</span></b></p><p>I stared talking with <a href="https://openai.com/blog/chatgpt" target="_blank">ChatGPT</a> on my phone, but the service was becoming overused and unreliable to access. So I switch to the 'playground', via PC, to gain access to the 3.5 (text-davinci) version and fine tuning customisations. </p><p>As noted in <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1615715995666055171" target="_blank">this twitter thread</a>, although it couldn't answer a bunch of things, I wasn't initially able to trip up it's reading comprehension. At. All. It was even insightful on a personal issue and old science curiosity that I remembered flummoxed my high school teacher. As it happens, my old Nottingham University physics department computational physics lecturer made a <a href="https://youtu.be/GBtfwa-Fexc" target="_blank">good YouTube video</a> summarising it's understanding through to undergrad level. </p><p>It also got some things confidently wrong. Like insisting that the "Allspark" was part of the original Transformers 1986 movie, however I asked it. All charisma, with a sociopathic disregard for truth. Or, given it also lacked memory for past conversations, and had broad but imprecise knowledge, I likened it to: "... <i>a Frankenstein of 10 thousand mediocre genius brains, crammed into one body, that's blackout drunk with no conscious thought, yet is somehow still talking coherently, while being led by suggestions to spout whatever comes to mind.</i>" </p><p>I considered classing it as a precociously well spoken ~10 year old, too. And in February, a paper was published suggesting GPT-3 had the theory of mind equivalent to a 9 year old (<a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1624115510202798082" target="_blank">my related tweet</a>).</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-11 [Backdated] - The Age of Generative AI Entertainment Begins:</span></b></p><p>As <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1634421176943378432" target="_blank">I tweeted</a>: <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">I just stumbled upon purely AI generated 24/7 Twitch channels. Unsurprisingly, some are unwatchable digital surrealism...</span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> But <a href="https://www.twitch.tv/atheneaiheroes" target="_blank">this one</a> is (just about) legitimate entertainment!</span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> It's even amusing at times. If tiresomely focused on certain US celebs, thanks to the viewer chat demographic. Who are prompting the dynamically generated AI guests to say ridiculous things, via ChatGPT-3 and other clever techniques to <strike>deep</strike> roughly fake them appearing to say it.</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKI5tBI0bj5ksHgEebnlN2wRam0WR3kopjw8uFW6JsZXGuH03Oe9xtONtJWGgipZK-5qcEGd_poEj-lSOLRXsrAV3eOOipU0xdFJ3t3SKVZgtaTxKIpbkLnQY7PKeHkE1ZZmD5ftaDO6GbjaWkAHgU3DtYkoCeTX93B4yo1S8RZGrtyUE_Kg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1198" data-original-width="1918" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKI5tBI0bj5ksHgEebnlN2wRam0WR3kopjw8uFW6JsZXGuH03Oe9xtONtJWGgipZK-5qcEGd_poEj-lSOLRXsrAV3eOOipU0xdFJ3t3SKVZgtaTxKIpbkLnQY7PKeHkE1ZZmD5ftaDO6GbjaWkAHgU3DtYkoCeTX93B4yo1S8RZGrtyUE_Kg=w640-h400" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>This phenomena makes me think of Ian Mcdonald's "<i>River of Gods</i>" (2004). A mid-term futurism heavy sci-fi novel set in 2040s (northern) India, that <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2010/06/river-of-gods-by-ian-mcdonald-2004.html" target="_blank">I blogged in detail</a>. One of the super-human AIs generates the most popular soap operas in the country. This Twitch channel feels like the thin-edge of that exponential wedge into human video entertainment (and other mediums).</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-21 - AI Alignment [still being filled in]:</span></b><br /><br />I've been following <b>Elizer Yudkowsky</b> on social media for many years, after reading his <a href="https://hpmor.com/" target="_blank">HPatMoR</a> rationalist fanfiction/parody (in 2011). His <a href="https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky" target="_blank">Twitter profile</a> states: "<i>Ours is the era of inadequate AI alignment theory. Any other facts about this era are relatively unimportant,[...]</i>" </p><p>Which sounds pretty strident. But I appreciate the weight of this; a malevolent (misaligned) self-improving ASI (artificial super-intelligence) could not only wipe out humanity, but, <i>in theory</i>, doom the galaxy/universe. In the case of something like a <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/squiggle-maximizer-formerly-paperclip-maximizer" target="_blank">paper-clip maximiser</a>, like Micky Mouse's magically mis-programmed brooms in "<i>Fantasia</i>" (1940), or the <a href="https://revelationspace.fandom.com/wiki/Greenfly" target="_blank">greenfly</a> Von Neumann swarms in Alastair Reynold's "<i>Revelation Space</i>" sci-fi universe. Far worst would be Roko's Basilisk.</p><p>Despite the astronomically high stakes, Yudkowski continues to assert that there are single digit serious researchers in this field, working on alignment. And that those pushing ahead building ever more capable AI systems tend to dismiss these ideas out of hand. E.g. in <a href="https://youtu.be/EUjc1WuyPT8" target="_blank">this 2016 lecture video</a>, which is confusing and a little rushed. (I get neuro-divergent/autism vibes off him, and he had non-24 sleep like me, too.)</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh2hSHIb_zKeOngmz97DNtJ7EPGAbQ5XJJNz3xp5v4Mqe2NqdeZeto6kkpm5vBYR5lgrwLwAXG-uXm8SkX8q44iZ1u3SfkxD3AP5LwuNM0Ju8qPdkDbHKbABd4PTqTYD-DADGLl3obVcdHlsLTKNGhr7lKoIeXl2RBa1rVhTMdTHbszhjpxjA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="1247" height="346" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh2hSHIb_zKeOngmz97DNtJ7EPGAbQ5XJJNz3xp5v4Mqe2NqdeZeto6kkpm5vBYR5lgrwLwAXG-uXm8SkX8q44iZ1u3SfkxD3AP5LwuNM0Ju8qPdkDbHKbABd4PTqTYD-DADGLl3obVcdHlsLTKNGhr7lKoIeXl2RBa1rVhTMdTHbszhjpxjA=w640-h346" width="640" /></a></div><br />With recent events, Yudkowski's been pressed into increased relevancy and tweeting a bunch. Making serious use of the (questionably) expanded tweet length for those buying the new blue checkmarks, heh. There's a whole bunch of tweets before this, but today I had a loose chain of exchanges with another user, out to <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1638005048218116096" target="_blank">this tweet</a>. After questioning why we'd not expect AGI to naturally align.<p></p><p>The main resource it has put me onto is <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@RobertMilesAI/videos" target="_blank">this YouTube channel</a>, by <b>Robert Miles</b>, on AI safety research. Which I'm still digesting and will add more summaries as and when I work through:</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/8AvIErXFoH8" target="_blank">2017-04-27</a> - <b>Utility Functions</b> - Are a (supposedly) necessary way to specify preference between alternative states. Circular ordering of preferences being 'intransitive'.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/B6Oigy1i3W4" target="_blank">2017-05-18</a> - <b>Prof Hubert Dreyfus</b> - was a philosopher who, through the 60s to 80s (including the '<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter" target="_blank">AI winter</a>' of the 70s), criticised the field of AI research. Arguing (more correctly) that the most of human intelligence relies on <i>unconscious </i>processes that could never be captured with symbolic manipulation of formal rules [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubert_Dreyfus%27s_views_on_artificial_intelligence" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>].</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/nNB9svNBGHM" target="_blank">2017-05-27</a> <b>Respectability </b>- References Yudkowski, then the <a href="https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/ai-open-letter/" target="_blank">2015 AI open letter</a>, co-signed by basically every notable researcher, plus celebrity brains: Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk and bill Gates. Imploring for much more research investment towards ensuring AI's burgeoning exponential promise benefits humanity (as much as possible).</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/1wAgBaJgEsg" target="_blank">2017-06-10</a> <b>Like Nuclear Risks? </b>- The signatories of the 2015 letter had a wide range of concerns, from AI greatly increasing wealth inequality (UBI is needed), extending racism, causing ethical problems in programming self-driving car crash priorities, etc, up to ASI risk. Comparison to risks of nuclear material, between lab worker radiation poisoning (Marie Curie) to: "what if the first nuclear detonation ignites all the nitrogen in the atmosphere and kills everything forever?". Best to be sure it doesn't first.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/lqJUIqZNzP8" target="_blank">2017-06-18</a> <b>Negative Side Effects</b> - Any aspect of reality not explicitly mentioned in an AI's utility function may be massively perturbed by it, in order to achieve its goal (squashing baby while making tea, etc). One suggestion in the paper "<a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.06565" target="_blank">Concrete Problems in AI Safety</a>" is to (mildly) penalise any changes to the world, at all (by the AI itself). Although that may also be undesirable and tricky to define.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/gPtsgTjyEj4" target="_blank">2017-07-09</a> <b>Empowerment </b>- Is a how much influence an (AI) agent has over the environment. By rewarding AI for having more empowerment, alone, it can be taught to balance a bike, or pick up door keys to its maze. Because it can't have as much influence when it's stuck in one place. But having the potential to have too much effect on the world could be very bad. Like a cleaning bot spilling a bucket of water into computer servers, or going near to a big red button. So penalising excessive empowerment may be prudent. But that could also trigger unexpected/dangerous behaviours. </p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/eaYIU6YXr3w" target="_blank">2017-07-22</a> <b>Why not just: raise AI like kids?</b> - Human brains have a complex evolved structure primed to soak up specific types of information. Like language and social norms, etc. A whole brain emulation <i>might </i>work like this. But that would be massively more difficult to design and orders of magnitude more resource intensive to simulate. Also ultimately amount to give a single human vast power.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/92qDfT8pENs" target="_blank">2017-08-12</a> <b>Reward hacking (Part 1)</b> - In the example of game playing AIs, that receive a 'reward' proportional to the final score, there's a tendency to stumble across unintended behaviours and glitches that cheese a high score much more effectively than completing the game conventionally. A super-intelligent AI would directly hack the game to set the score (or whatever reward-linked metric) to maximum. But eliminate humans first, to prevent them turning it off for not performing as desired.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/7FCEiCnHcbo" target="_blank">2017-08-22</a> <b>Killer Robot Arms Race</b> - There's an obvious competitive advantage for organisations developing AGI to cut corners on safety and alignment. Musk's push (via OpenAI, etc) to take AI research out of monopoly control (by Google, basically) might actually be counterproductive for safety. Enabling more people to create something potentially "more dangerous than nukes".</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/46nsTFfsBuc" target="_blank">2017-08-29</a> <b>Reward Hacking (Part 2) </b>- Goodhart's Law: "<i>When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure</i>". E.g. pupils being taught only how to correctly answer the specific test. Or dolphins ripping up pieces of litter to get more fish for handing them in to trainers. Or a cleaning robot sticking a bucket over it's head (cameras) so it see zero mess. Directly hacking a reward function is known as "<i>wireheading</i>", after experiments on rats able to electrically stimulate their own reward centres (until they starved to death).</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/13tZ9Yia71c" target="_blank">2017-09-24</a> <b>Reward Hacking (Part 3)</b> - Goodhart's Law also documented as Campbell's Law. Example of his school refusing to teach certain students to avoid dragging down average grades. Careful engineering (avoiding all bugs) is tricky and is still vulnerable to assumptions about hardware environment. <i>Adversarial example</i> training helps avoid confidently wrong NN output for certain worst-case slight input perturbations. Adversarial reward function could have their own agency to avoid being outsmarted, but obviously adds its own problems. Model lookahead gives rewards for anticipated actions and future world states, e.g. what would be the real situation if cleaning bot stuck a bucket over its cameras.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/gP4ZNUHdwp8" target="_blank">2017-10-17</a> <b>AGIs I/O and Speed</b> - Humans interacting with systems is slow, e.g. a calculator, compared to a human equivalent AGI using a maths software system. AGI could <i>think</i> in e.g. code, text, etc, rather than having to convert it to images first, as we do. (This has indeed been demonstrated with the current LLMs.) An AGI could divert resources to parallel process (e.g. multiple audio streams) way more efficiently, or split off additional instances. And in general, once a computer can do a task, at all, it can do it far faster than a human. Speed is a form of super-intelligence and AGI will <i>probably</i> be <i>parallelisable</i>: more hardware = faster. E.g. Tensorflow. Neurons can only fire at 200Hz, so only process (at max) 200 sequential steps/second.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/MUVbqQ3STFA" target="_blank">2017-10-29</a> <b>Generative Adversarial Networks (AIs creating)</b> - Taking the average of many latent vectors (e.g. pictures of men with sunglasses), then do arithmetic on the that and other input vectors to add glasses to women, despite having no input images of that [<a href=" https://arxiv.org/pdf/1511.06434.pdf" target="_blank">1</a>]. Moving around the <i>latent space</i> can make a smoothly varying image of cats. Also, research of growing the size of a neural network during training, to avoid having to train so many node values [<a href="https://research.nvidia.com/sites/default/files/pubs/2017-10_Progressive-Growing-of/karras2018iclr-paper.pdf" target="_blank">2</a>].</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/BfcJymyTiu0" target="_blank">2017-11-16</a> <b>Effective Altruism</b> - An organisation that tries to quantify the efficiency of donating to different charities, in terms of lives saved per £. There's orders of magnitude difference between different orgs tackling the same issues. Also, where the most suffering is (maybe factory farming). This conference focused on AI safety, given AI alignment might be the most worthwhile cause of all time. </p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/nr1lHuFeq5w" target="_blank">2017-11-29</a> <b>Scalable Supervision</b> - 1 to 1 human supervision of a cleaning robot would be very safe and be sure of avoiding reward hacking. But that would too resource inefficient for viability, so daily inspections might be a better option. However, sparse rewards make it hard for AI to learn what actions are effective.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPOm_viyT6DICfrBETW5vXY9Kij2SjuadatwCkPTUszIgTsu_BObbOHanApCZDVsWDl9w4aCQuq7yEfVcLum--LeA4cBl-XIqLXgDPFYsL_4NLWAsvtJ-xl4xiIODxr7w_jbAeVdWbDj3pdwlemDHtlqBFQoHNaxKdqRdpT9FnWRhVzPMilw" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="612" data-original-width="806" height="152" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiPOm_viyT6DICfrBETW5vXY9Kij2SjuadatwCkPTUszIgTsu_BObbOHanApCZDVsWDl9w4aCQuq7yEfVcLum--LeA4cBl-XIqLXgDPFYsL_4NLWAsvtJ-xl4xiIODxr7w_jbAeVdWbDj3pdwlemDHtlqBFQoHNaxKdqRdpT9FnWRhVzPMilw=w200-h152" width="200" /></a></div>• <a href="https://youtu.be/hEUO6pjwFOo" target="_blank">2018-01-11</a> <b>The Orthogonality Thesis</b> - Statements are either "<i>is</i>" or "<i>ought</i>", facts or goals (separated by Hume's guillotine). Intelligence comes from reasoning with <i>is</i> statements. this can ever lead to an assertion of what action is desirable, without at least one <i>ought </i>in the mix. Also, "<i>instrumental</i>" goals can be evaluated to be good or bad relative to "<i>terminal</i>" goals. But terminal goals can never be stupid, they are fundamental. Unlike humans, AI's don't necessarily have any 'sensible' terminal goals. Hence the possibility for a super-intelligent AI to turn the universe into paperclips, or kill everyone to collect more stamps.<br /><p></p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/ZeecOKBus3Q" target="_blank">2018-03-24</a> <b>Instrumental Convergence</b> - Whatever one's <i>terminal </i>(ultimate) goals in life, your <i>instrumental </i>(sub) goals will tend to be the same as for others. For humans, money and education will always tend to help get people what they want in life, whatever that is. For AGI, instrumental goals will tend to converge on: <i>self preservation</i> (can't get anything done if you don't exist), <i>more resources</i> (e.g. computer hardware) to augment its intelligence/capabilities and <i>goal preservation.</i> As in, avoiding being modified in a way that would reduce the odds of achieving its current goals. Hence why initial alignment may be absolutely crucial.</p><p><br />• <a href="https://youtu.be/HOJ1NVtlnyQ" target="_blank">2018-03-31</a> <b>Experts' Predictions </b>- This <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf" target="_blank">2016 paper by AI Impacts</a> surveyed many AI researchers from around the world. The main inquiry was about how long they expected it to take to reach a HLMI (high–level machine intelligence) that's better than humans at everything. The average date was around 2060. Although timescales varied quite widely, even between similarly defined things. And AI research was placed as the last (hardest) single job likely to be automated, over 80 years hence. Funny, seeing as (7 years later) OpenAI's explicit plan is to have their AIs work on aligning more powerful AIs.</p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSscVPZFaWH2wISdce1E46Ia5yxipKAcoPXdBv-DCicfW8EWdetVB8WCR9pOnz9I3r5WMZwlimzEOK-DESb0On2wIpHIqFjX2l0HryiCQ2aIxF_bGC4JyFSrnwJBZSM6YHMyhmYKm4UFgL980sdPITAmCflVm6T7etQQafozy7uhrKxcldvA" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="789" data-original-width="935" height="540" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiSscVPZFaWH2wISdce1E46Ia5yxipKAcoPXdBv-DCicfW8EWdetVB8WCR9pOnz9I3r5WMZwlimzEOK-DESb0On2wIpHIqFjX2l0HryiCQ2aIxF_bGC4JyFSrnwJBZSM6YHMyhmYKm4UFgL980sdPITAmCflVm6T7etQQafozy7uhrKxcldvA=w640-h540" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Interesting the much shorter expected schedule in Asia, where recent economic growth has been far faster.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/L5pUA3LsEaw" target="_blank">2018-12-23</a> <b>Are Corporations super-intelligent?</b> - In some ways, yes: they have a broader range of capabilities and far higher throughput than any individual human, through parallelisation. Also, with good management that is able to recognise good ideas, they can come up with far better than average ideas, reliably. But not a better idea than their smartest employee in that speciality. And they tend to think slower than individuals, rather than faster. </p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/v9M2Ho9I9Qo" target="_blank">2019-03-11</a> <b>Iterated Distillation and Amplification</b> - A resource efficient approximation function, e.g. a neural net for evaluating the best move in Go, can be refined by iterating forward through branching possibilities (processor intensive) to see which moves actually ended up working out well. Hence improve its intelligence without needing to learn from anything smarter.</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-26 - Lex Fridman interviews Sam Altman:</span></b></p><p>This was my first time watching a <a href="https://youtu.be/L_Guz73e6fw" target="_blank">full podcast interview</a> by Lex. 2h20min in one sitting on my phone in bed at 1.5x speed. I thought it very well rounded and approachable, yet insightful. A decent introduction and overview of how ChatGPT works and the context of OpenAI, Microsoft, Sam himself, etc.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="300" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/L_Guz73e6fw" width="461" youtube-src-id="L_Guz73e6fw"></iframe></div><br /><p>My takeaways immediately after watching this, written up for <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/121ucmo/comment/jdorylw/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">this reddit comment</a>:</p><p><b>(1)</b> Sam saying there's a fuzzy relationship between AI <b>capability </b>and its <b>alignment</b>, with both provided simultaneously by the RLHF stage of training. (Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback.)</p><p>Reinforcing my suspicion that the AI safety researcher assertion of <b>orthogonality</b> (between those qualities) as unlikely to be so disconnected as with the "paperclip optimiser" or "stamp collector".</p><p>Sam suggesting, explicitly, what I wondered: that this alignment thinking probably hasn't been fully updated for deep learning neural nets, LLMs. Though not dismissing all Yudkowski's concerns and work, also seeing issues with his intelligibility and reasoning.</p><p><b>(2)</b> Sam offhandedly throwing out "<b>GPT-10</b>" while talking about achieving "AGI" as he sees it. At a rate of, what, roughly 1 new model number per year, so far? Would put us around <b>2029</b>? An expectation date I think I've seen elsewhere?</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiP7vCZnNDWBoYC9MYQMSua81hia_5krohSMIVQfqCEd2uIRsRHIGpmFJ8Y-5N5C21zE3m3pffCpqv_EIFhyLIxEK3LY0sli9wBIkpMeQok5HQdqCoD32Q-Sf8fzuvofExqMg19j2-hzJ35BgG-aB9k4_gGMTm9OO-Q2M_hlGB1kQ79rJ7_iQ" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="412" data-original-width="685" height="192" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiP7vCZnNDWBoYC9MYQMSua81hia_5krohSMIVQfqCEd2uIRsRHIGpmFJ8Y-5N5C21zE3m3pffCpqv_EIFhyLIxEK3LY0sli9wBIkpMeQok5HQdqCoD32Q-Sf8fzuvofExqMg19j2-hzJ35BgG-aB9k4_gGMTm9OO-Q2M_hlGB1kQ79rJ7_iQ" width="320" /></a></div><p></p><p>The slide from Lex's presentation (he talks about being taken out of context), estimating the <b>human brain has 100 trillion synapses, to GPT3's 175 billion parameters</b>. This seems quite suggestive of a similar ballpark timescale, too? (Along the new, steeper exponential trend curve.)</p><p>I've been feeling a lot is happing extremely fast. Faster than this suggestion. But have to remind myself that the LLM chat models have been quietly iterating up for half a decade. That ChatGPT just hit that minimum usability threshold, to be impressive. And it got released late in a cycle, close to them moving up to the next major model. And all this hype has forced, and platformed, reactive releases from competing and related companies.</p><p><b>(3) </b>They both thought an earlier start with more <b>gradual take-off</b>, of ASI, super-intelligence, etc, was safer and preferable. Verses leaving e.g. Google privately working on these things until suddenly dropping a very powerful product.</p><p>OpenAI's practice of <b>shipping products</b> (earlier), getting invaluable public testing, feedback and receiving input on how to direct development. That the company needs to retain responsibility for ChatGPT's function, but broader input on values is needed from humanity. Impossible as it is for any two people to entirely agree on anything.</p><p><b>(4) </b>Sam warned (again) that a huge number of competitors and individuals will very soon be making and using similar LLMs. Without any transparency or restraint. Public consideration of misuse for <b>disinformation </b>operations and other immediate harm seems to be relatively lacking.</p><p></p><p><b style="font-weight: bold;">(5)</b> ChatGPT's answers bring back <b>nuance </b>that's been lost in e.g. Twitter discourse. Lex quoting the system's circumspect answers to the lab Covid leak theory and if Jordan Peterson is a fascist. The answers presented grounded context and perspective.</p><p></p><p>I think that's encouraging. And I think it was fair to say ChatGPT was initially somewhat <b>biased</b>. But is able to (now) be more unbiased than it's given credit for. They're working towards it being more customisable to users, such that most reasons for jailbreaking will become largely obsolete (comparison to iPhones).</p><p><b>(6)</b> AI <b>coding assistance</b> may well make programmers 10 times more efficient. But that there's probably a supply side shortage, of code creation, and huge scope for there to just be so much more code (customised to more situations). So we are likely to retain, overall, just as many programmers. That the real human input may already be from just one major insight programmers come up with, per day.</p><p>But, as I've seen e.g. Gates (and others) say, <b>service/support industry</b> looks set to be rapidly revolutionised (i.e. mass redundancies). Going onto talk about <b>UBI, </b>which OpenAI has funded trials of. Sam believes in raising up the low end (poor) without touching the top (super-rich). Capitalism and personal freedom to innovate being why America is the best, despite its flaws.</p><p><b>(7) </b>A bunch of context on <b>OpenAI</b>'s structure, history, aims and other projects, from Sam's perspective. On the (reportedly) great qualities of <b>Microsoft</b>'s relatively new CEO (Satya Nadella). Sam's personal qualities and flaws.</p><p>On Musk, hitting back is not Altman's style. Diplomatically, he stated roughly what I believe, that Elon's probably sped up adoption of electric vehicles and affordable space access.</p><p>Of course it was a friendly interview, Lex openly stating he knows, and likes, many OpenAI staff. But I found the discourse genuine and somewhat reassuring, in its detail.</p><p><b>Related information from other sources:</b></p><p><b>(a) </b>Some <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/03/24/2023/the-secret-history-of-elon-musk-sam-altman-and-openai" target="_blank">outside context</a> (via <a href="https://twitter.com/pitdesi/status/1639308132370227201" target="_blank">Twitter</a>) on Musk moaning about having co-founded and funded OpenAI to the tune of $100M, only for it to (recently, long after he parted ways) create a (capped) for-profit arm to raise funds (for expensive LLM training) and slip in with Microsoft, etc.</p><p>Apparently Musk left (in 2018) when his move to take full personal control of OpenAI was rejected. Then he reneged on most of his $1Bn funding promise.</p><p><b>(b) </b>One little topic they didn't explicitly mention is the ability to (surprisingly rapidly) <b>transfer training </b>wisdom from e.g. ChatGPT-3 to a lesser, lighter model, via standard text input/output. Which seems like game changing magic, to me. Somewhat scary. And with wild implications for financial incentives of companies facing huge expense and difficulty of training.</p><p><a href="https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1635577836525469697/history" target="_blank">Yudkowski describes</a> (on Twitter) a Standford team achieving GPT3 level performance from the very cheap LLaMa model (from Meta), by getting the latter to give ~50k training examples. Another twitter user <a href="https://twitter.com/BrianRoemmele/status/1637871062246649856/history" target="_blank">describes having done this himself</a> at home, for $530 worth of ChatGPT API access.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQQX5Z9khKhR3bv_JWqlCpt-jU7XEDTpQZyoVTSHWvjfo1zSoZD_SqEqOFos0qlKVsjUBtxI1CmI4V0_hDQcS8qgprygBnneBlleraUuLWQBZPUkHG2eUHLDrt0J5vZpLsYpR4HL6F6UnRbGCWcIZZCvkt4ij046qCaVm_LsiTfd0xv4-Z9w" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="852" data-original-width="2048" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgQQX5Z9khKhR3bv_JWqlCpt-jU7XEDTpQZyoVTSHWvjfo1zSoZD_SqEqOFos0qlKVsjUBtxI1CmI4V0_hDQcS8qgprygBnneBlleraUuLWQBZPUkHG2eUHLDrt0J5vZpLsYpR4HL6F6UnRbGCWcIZZCvkt4ij046qCaVm_LsiTfd0xv4-Z9w=w640-h266" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-27 Monster or Spiritual Machine?:</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg12S5QGl-dj0ezAcZoOXV8o9Hooi4SrxOSEQxXoHggLej5IqyXBk6Gy-rtwCDti71q2SRWm9jAg0nXzyvycoGpoRwvSeJjiEgMYDCsLqQYVKvb3gMCvePDxT3ZjSOJAR2K4UxPJ1n5w9xUVI96AlWGh1qSTQp8FoH2OZG8Ax2iz8k6nmspQQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="942" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg12S5QGl-dj0ezAcZoOXV8o9Hooi4SrxOSEQxXoHggLej5IqyXBk6Gy-rtwCDti71q2SRWm9jAg0nXzyvycoGpoRwvSeJjiEgMYDCsLqQYVKvb3gMCvePDxT3ZjSOJAR2K4UxPJ1n5w9xUVI96AlWGh1qSTQp8FoH2OZG8Ax2iz8k6nmspQQ=w193-h200" width="193" /></a></div>• <b>Ray Kurzweil -</b> <a href="https://youtu.be/ykY69lSpDdo">interview with Lex Fridman</a>. Pretty boring, really; same old Ray talking about the same topics as a decade or more ago. <b>Exponential</b> graphs, etc. Except he's sporting some weird tie-like braces and brandishing a Google Pixel.<p></p><p>He was still (this is 6 months ago) predicting <b>2029</b> for the first machine to pass his stricter version of the <b>Turing test</b>. As he's been saying since 1999, and noe most researches pretty much agree. (Seemed to be Sam Altman's expectation, too.)</p><p>He's very specifically expecting it to be an <b>LLMs</b> (like LLaMDa and GPT). Albeit augmented with various fixes; he didn't see the ghost in GPT-3. But when one does pass the test, he'll truly believe it's experiencing consciousness, too. And expects public opinion to change gradually towards most accepting this too. With the example of the Google engineer, already, last year.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhs1G3rnYcxjgYLfGL1xj7UW9PM7LPemqbHpxjgi2vycQQVLosi4eaE2AtI2-MQ52R8Rm54Yfubi95ElG5ALiXHTNzM4tekAR2O0uC23D9p4jOJUEoEIT2-peYm8pkUcf0B5_nXsxtSKuf5mi0prIEOHSm65TxxuQCw__70CR2mPsC6VkwlOg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="974" data-original-width="1699" height="366" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhs1G3rnYcxjgYLfGL1xj7UW9PM7LPemqbHpxjgi2vycQQVLosi4eaE2AtI2-MQ52R8Rm54Yfubi95ElG5ALiXHTNzM4tekAR2O0uC23D9p4jOJUEoEIT2-peYm8pkUcf0B5_nXsxtSKuf5mi0prIEOHSm65TxxuQCw__70CR2mPsC6VkwlOg=w640-h366" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>Ray's always been an optimist. He expects <b>brain computer interfaces</b>, in the 2030s, that leverage nanotechnology to interface with our neo-cortexes. Allowing biological humans to extend their brains out to amplify intelligence by orders of magnitude. Communicating rapidly, etc. That we'll be taken along by (and merge with) super-intelligent machines, rather than being replaced.</p><p>He also mentioned (again) training a language model on the written works of his father, a shy musician composer who died fairly young. Being able to have a conversation with a digital version of him. And I must say, I've been thinking about how good of a model of me could be created with all my online published materials. Let alone the rest of my output stored on PC and paper.</p><p>Especially since I recently tried out <a href="https://beta.elevenlabs.io/">ElevenLabs</a> voice simulation, using a 3 minute sample of a YouTube voiceover I recorded. It was better than uncanny, to the extent that I'd like to use it for future video... If I regain the ability to make more.</p><p>Maybe it's not so far off to run a basic ZeroGravitas-LLM..? For what functions, I don't know. But even just to chat with it would be uncanny. But if it could start function somewhat independently as a customised personal assistant... And what if I fed it my physics undergrad notes, which I never fully got to grips with, etc. Could it manifest a smarter version of me, even..? And might it progress beyond the meat-space me..?<br /><br />Who (or what) else will make their own approximate versions of me? Modelling interactions, to best convince or manipulate. And how long until something like this, at scale, is used like Cambridge Analytica targeted the personalised (dis)information ads that swung Brexit and Trump 2016? How much more potent the levers that could be found with this.</p><p>• <b>The shoggoth</b> - is an amorphous horror in the fiction of HP Lovecraft's. It's able to transform parts of itself to mimic various things. </p><p>This eldritch abomination has been used as a metaphor (e.g. Yudkowski <a href="https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1635638475075534848?t=rGPFkw2s1IuGEce91XKe9Q">tweet on RLHF LLM cloning</a>) for the large language models. A vast unknowable intellect created of the raw internalisation of vast swathes of the internet. Until human selected output preferences are used to bias that, the reinforcement learning (RLHF) part.</p><p>The notion is that, as far as we know for sure, this has only coaxed the LLM to morph a palatable mask for these interactions:<br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidSyNbABx93U126XyZMJFS5v8PXInp3UNyFzfknIHy3UIzZZzW4AFmEXpjOQlm638uaxy3ow50D9V1JMCvlSexL-o63slScdlpVPtDQHlyRSlAIJQjGnydVZtzgNgdyRmnc0jv/s1600/1679922338177705-0.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="541" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEidSyNbABx93U126XyZMJFS5v8PXInp3UNyFzfknIHy3UIzZZzW4AFmEXpjOQlm638uaxy3ow50D9V1JMCvlSexL-o63slScdlpVPtDQHlyRSlAIJQjGnydVZtzgNgdyRmnc0jv/w640-h541/1679922338177705-0.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">Illustration</span><span style="text-align: left;"> </span><a href="https://twitter.com/anthrupad/status/1622349563922362368?t=AeLmf-eOVvmDeiX_VJJEqw&s=19" style="text-align: left;">from Twitter</a><span style="text-align: left;">. </span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>The above image was referenced in <a href="https://youtu.be/PBH2nImUM5c">this YouTube interview except</a> with Miniq Jiang, UCL and Meta AI researcher. He seems to say the LLM is kind of modelling the (writing of) millions of people who made the web content. Another writer, on<a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYzkipnDqzMgBaLr8/why-do-we-assume-there-is-a-real-shoggoth-behind-the-llm-why" target="_blank"> lesswrong</a>, described the raw LLM as a "<i>pile of masks</i>" to choose from, depending on the perceived context of the prompt.</p><p>Apparently the (raw) responses are initially <i>extremely </i>variable, reflecting the intricate cragginess of the dataset. This is probably better for creative (writing) inspiration. As some found with the original GPT3, which was less honed in. But, for ChatGPT, its tone and personality is desirable to be shaped more towards neutral academic authority, like that of a search engine.</p><p>Here, <a href="https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1636740897466646529?t=TzH4r30pvjJDNH3Q-ZWK3A">Yudkowski quote tweets</a> a fairly chilling GPT-4 interaction, where it sounded like someone believing they might be a human trapped in a machine. Spooky. The more worrying part is that it then proceeded to offer up (and fix) working code to help it establish an outside presence and backdoor into itself, after prompting on how the user could help it escape.</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-28 Computerphile videos:</span></b><br /><br />This is the bigger, Nottingham University associated YouTube channel, linked with Robert Mile's AI safety channel. He appears in most of their video on ChatGPT topics. I'll start summarising some of them, in <b>reverse chronological</b> order, as I work back through them:</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/jHwHPyWkShk" target="_blank">2023-03-24</a> <b>Bing Chat Behaving Badly</b> - They look at examples where Bing chat has given troubling output, like gaslighting a user about the current year, getting increasingly irate, condescending, and reiterating the same thing repeatedly with different phrasings. And threatening a user who was taunting it, before the reply gets visibly deleted by a separate monitoring system.</p><p>Robert (hesitantly) speculates that Microsoft are using a more raw version of GPT4, without the human feedback (RLHF). Which, in ChatGPT-3.5 (davinici), made it into a much more human aligned, sycophantic assistant. RLHF is very tricky and time consuming and OpenAI may not have given everything over, as they are not actually that close.<br /><br />So Microsoft may have just tweaked the base model and added kludgy safeguards, to rush it out the door so fast, ahead of Google. Which is the classic concern of a competitive race-to-the-bottom on AI safety.<br /><br />They also discuss how these models are 'programmed' using natural language (in a hidden prompt at the start of each session). That this is an inherent security flaw, because the 'data' the system then handles is <i>also </i>natural language. So, like SQL injection hacks (that trick a system into executing data as code), users are able to tick these chatbots into doing things they've been explicitly told not to. Jailbreaking. </p><p>Or revealing the Bing chatbot's internal name and page of hidden prompt instructions (that include not to reveal these instructions). Shared by Marvin von Hagen <a href="https://twitter.com/marvinvonhagen/status/1623658144349011971" target="_blank">on Twitter (Feb 9)</a>. Sydney was <a href="https://twitter.com/marvinvonhagen/status/1625520707768659968" target="_blank">seemingly not happy</a> with him, upon searching up the news of it being hacked in this way...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjekuRmBMnJcMb8IpnDmfCUJ3iC-zoeWyxBr9cq19WClUeRuZJNOw9DX8b501TPG__PBcT9lIIx3JHN-iScFtGLPhKhR2v-bk8YjYlKCAHzn27uQbzuoIsTspoPZPZdNA34P2T9eJVZkeja_EIVvZKpYZjUIsuyxC0vmVfLrei9unf3otrpmg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="362" data-original-width="740" height="314" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjekuRmBMnJcMb8IpnDmfCUJ3iC-zoeWyxBr9cq19WClUeRuZJNOw9DX8b501TPG__PBcT9lIIx3JHN-iScFtGLPhKhR2v-bk8YjYlKCAHzn27uQbzuoIsTspoPZPZdNA34P2T9eJVZkeja_EIVvZKpYZjUIsuyxC0vmVfLrei9unf3otrpmg=w640-h314" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9Viu-n_2i2T2TmKDCb8J8umN-COwrLx_ofWQK6GGm4NLMB6Z8rclN0lW3t8enES7t1kQBGuM2p1s2_S4J9vMMNqRMBDp-yk-O1UNjJ2cpLC4ACZyLewr00RHP9mWPOeGSZvWR37ZJz1RZHwSXFhgtyIY7JOeu_O8qyH777yJTpfy4ABp7VA" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="443" data-original-width="768" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi9Viu-n_2i2T2TmKDCb8J8umN-COwrLx_ofWQK6GGm4NLMB6Z8rclN0lW3t8enES7t1kQBGuM2p1s2_S4J9vMMNqRMBDp-yk-O1UNjJ2cpLC4ACZyLewr00RHP9mWPOeGSZvWR37ZJz1RZHwSXFhgtyIY7JOeu_O8qyH777yJTpfy4ABp7VA=w200-h116" width="200" /></a></div>• <a href="https://youtu.be/WO2X3oZEJOA" target="_blank">2023-03-07</a> <b>Glitch Tokens</b> - AI safety researchers discovered that there are a cluster of unusual tokens encoded within GPT-3 (and GPT-2). That produce very unusual, undefined, responses or system errors, even.<p></p><p>"<i>SolidGoldMagikarp</i>" has become the most infamous, returning a desription of "<i>A distribute is a type of software distribution model [...]</i>", etc. This text string is apparently a very frequently appearing Reddit username in the r/counting sub, where chains of comments have obsessively replied to with successive numbers into the millions. "<i>PsyNetMessage</i>", from Rocket League (game) error logs, causes talk about "<i>Asynchronous JavaScript and XML</i>". And "<i>attRot</i>" caused a null response (error) for me.</p><p>It's believed these names were initialised into the tokenizer, but then removed from the training data, as undesirable junk. So the LLMs had these words for things they had basically never seen, so had no idea of context or meaning. The neural net sees only the token IDs. These tend to split long words into parts and are different if capitalised. There are also tokens for each letter and character, too.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOyujnd6IqnCUmsa1T832S84arZVOk4E5s3rwITrxPn-QuUD6d2OeOlduKVCAAGW46tzCk7Rxm9Ox9ZJGtGIGcoe3XFescEljPCUV05ZcGkfEwDwcVC8FooYWHEO1mTyDO5FtfcoTzw0-Cq_MEF2CEMUxjIR19eGjNjd2MpMLKTgAjiy-kRA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="227" data-original-width="496" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiOyujnd6IqnCUmsa1T832S84arZVOk4E5s3rwITrxPn-QuUD6d2OeOlduKVCAAGW46tzCk7Rxm9Ox9ZJGtGIGcoe3XFescEljPCUV05ZcGkfEwDwcVC8FooYWHEO1mTyDO5FtfcoTzw0-Cq_MEF2CEMUxjIR19eGjNjd2MpMLKTgAjiy-kRA=w400-h183" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> Test the tokenizer on <a href="https://platform.openai.com/tokenizer" target="_blank">this OpenAI page</a>.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p> • <a href="https://youtu.be/XZJc1p6RE78" target="_blank">2023-02-16</a> <b>Cheat GPT</b> - Dr Mike Pound discusses a system that could subtly watermark AI (LLM) generated text content, to help identify cheating in schools, etc. It's difficult, because there's often very obvious, exactly correct answers, and words that really must be used in a certain order. </p><p>But analysing over longer sentences/passages could reveal a pattern with statistical significance. E.g. by allocating all the LLM's tokens into two groups (e.g. red/green) and then alternating which group has its output probability reduced. Where multiple different words would be almost as suitable.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/viJt_DXTfwA" target="_blank">2023-02-01</a> <b>ChatGPT (Safety)</b> - Robert Miles discusses how his pervious expectations have been born out by events: LLMs are a big deal and alignment is now a part of that. ChatGPT appears to have about the same number of parameters (brain size) as GPT-3, but produce more reliably helpful answers by being better aligned. Which is indeed our understanding of the situation with what RLHF achieved, as told weeks later by Sam Altman.</p><p>He talks about how neural nets internally modelling the processes that generated the training data. E.g. Deepmind's Alpha-Go the game mechanisms and logic. Or Or the people who wrote the text. So, it's answers will depend upon who is the simulacrum it's using in response to a prompt, as to what depth and nature of answer it will give. Vague question -> 8 year old answer, detailed academic question -> scientist level answer. , or</p><p>He describes the A-B human preference selection of responses used in RLHF. This feedback data (10s of thousands of examples) is used to create a reward model for reinforcement learning of the LLM itself. That simulates the input from humans rapidly.</p><p>[...] WIP</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNVoWUzGI3pFvKY3aPLnfELa-slBF6dbDhhWKPrTJNRbLCgdvnHB5-Eky9RCk_l4TU8zae17LPml1rHNEWnAY_CHmwAAWvDpJTKfqaDa2xH9fxCBT0yP_aruZifsf8tEv27kwk9KZPIMfD5qjc2P_WoMRt_u0t9iSEmljB5naf12TAn8q_Bw" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1495" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiNVoWUzGI3pFvKY3aPLnfELa-slBF6dbDhhWKPrTJNRbLCgdvnHB5-Eky9RCk_l4TU8zae17LPml1rHNEWnAY_CHmwAAWvDpJTKfqaDa2xH9fxCBT0yP_aruZifsf8tEv27kwk9KZPIMfD5qjc2P_WoMRt_u0t9iSEmljB5naf12TAn8q_Bw=w400-h225" width="400" /></a></div>• <a href="https://youtu.be/_8yVOC4ciXc" target="_blank">2020-06-01</a> <b>GPT3: An Even Bigger Language Model</b> - Robert describes the advances of OpenAI's GPT-3, back when it was new, making a huge leap from the ~1.3Bn parameters of GPT-2, up to 175Bn for the biggest version of 3. It's near human level poetry, fake news stories fooling testers, and somewhat emergent arithmetic ability, with the full model able to add or subtract 2 digit numbers reliably and 3 digit numbers most of the time.<br /><p></p><p>Talking about how it works as a "few-shot" system that doesn't need thousands of examples to achieve accuracy, implying some generalisation. Also the model's abilities appear to have scaled up without any diminishing returns. Straight line up from the previous, smaller models with smaller training sets. Hence continuing on to GPT-4.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/rURRYI66E54" target="_blank">2019-06-26</a> <b>AI Language Models & Transformers (GPT-2)</b> - Introducing transformers and LLMs. First stepping back to more basic statistical language models, like those for phone keyboard predictive text. These only look at the context of the previous 1 or 2 words typed, hence a tendency to get stuck in loops. For every known word, they maintain a list of probabilities for the next few most likely word. This multiplies up for each word of additional context, so scales hopelessly badly.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZ3bXOJ-KJhCe8EfE-pTq6kLzzwHQTA88dqr-7Fhq0YRNKp3YGIn8IFb2_k3csV9XV6x1b4TzjxY_0Vsqf4SR0XaR3vvZNaeJQ3WsNXP9xqjS5X861_dNljrnjTrIh590WFsgcA_pDBjxecEBCoOFx3TRsqIl0-DltJi8eDgOojO5iSHXVAQ" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1062" data-original-width="803" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjZ3bXOJ-KJhCe8EfE-pTq6kLzzwHQTA88dqr-7Fhq0YRNKp3YGIn8IFb2_k3csV9XV6x1b4TzjxY_0Vsqf4SR0XaR3vvZNaeJQ3WsNXP9xqjS5X861_dNljrnjTrIh590WFsgcA_pDBjxecEBCoOFx3TRsqIl0-DltJi8eDgOojO5iSHXVAQ=w302-h400" width="302" /></a></div>A step up is RNN (Recurrent Neural Networks), which also create a 'vector' that incorporates an abstraction of the the previous word and is fed, iteratively, back into itself for the next word. So information is transmitted for many words along a sequence, but get progressively degraded. <p></p><p>LSTMs (Long Short-term Memory) systems are also recurrent, a more complicated system. They're recurrent, with feedback connections, rather than just feed-forward. He doesn't fully explain, but they are able to selectively forget content.<br /></p><p>Then along came the 'transformer', in the paper "All you need is attention". Which somehow magically pays attention only to the relevant parts of the existing sentence(s) and being feed-forward only. This makes it parallelisable, scaling with however much hardware you throw at it, because the processing steps are not all dependant on the previous. A huge revolution in deep learning efficacy *and* efficiency.</p><p>We don't get a step-by-step of how the system processes data. But he talks about image classifiers that can show what part of a picture they were paying attention to. Which can help with interpretability and knowing why they've made errors.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/Sw9r8CL98N0" target="_blank">2017-10-25</a> <b>Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs)</b> - In game playing, the NN system can play against itself. But when training an image recognition <i>discriminator,</i> the NN training can be made more efficient using an adversarial <i>generator network </i>that deliberately focuses on examples that it classifies less accurately. It tries to maximise the discriminator's error rate. The generator gets fed random noise and takes on the inverse of the discriminator's gradient descent connection weight adjustment values. The dimensional inputs on the generator can be varied smoothly to move around its <i>latent space</i>, to morph images smoothly. Averaging examples can give vectors that add specific features to a generated image, like sunglasses (on a face).</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/AjyM-f8rDpg" target="_blank">2017-06-16</a> <b>Concrete Problems in AI Safety</b> - <a href="https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf" target="_blank">Paper</a>'s main topics: side effects, reward hacking, scalable oversight (adapting to unspecified situations with minimal additional user input), safe exploration (of possible actions to learn), robustness to distributional shift (different operating context vs training). More about accidents than AGI alignment.</p><p>• <a href="https://youtu.be/py5byOOHZM8" target="_blank">2016-05-20</a> <b>CNN: Convolutional Neural Networks</b> - Mike Pound explains how image classifiers process varying sizes and layouts of image to serialise the data for input to a neural network. They run through creating stacks which process for edge and corner detections, etc (which I think is like the back of the human retina does), also down sampling. This is still kind of magic for me, as I couldn't figure out how to sanitise my night sky constellation photos for my 2nd year ANN coursework (back in 2006).</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-29 "Pause Giant AI Experiments" Open Letter:</span></b><br /><br />All over the media today (radio news, even), stories stemming about <a href="https://futureoflife.org/open-letter/pause-giant-ai-experiments/" target="_blank">this open letter</a>. Co-signed by many prominent AI experts, hosted on the <i>future of life</i> website, which is largely funded by Musk. And of course most the articles lead with his name, for better and worst.</p><p>AI Explained (YouTube channel) posted this great breakdown summary, touching on relevant related research:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="300" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/8OpW5qboDDs" width="476" youtube-src-id="8OpW5qboDDs"></iframe></div><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-03-30 "Shut It All Down"!</span></b> </p><p>My first thought with the news, above, was what the AI safety experts think of it. In a <a href="https://time.com/6266923/ai-eliezer-yudkowsky-open-letter-not-enough/" target="_blank">Time article</a> (via <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffLadish/status/1641286410400583680" target="_blank">Twitter</a>), Yudkowski makes a much more stark warning of the likelihood that "everyone dies". He pushes a much more strident proposal to internationally outlaw any largescale use of GPUs to train AI models. Rolling the limit *downwards* over time, as more efficient training algorithms become smarter. Bombing any suspicious (suspected) GPU processing centres in rouge states. Even escalating the chances of nuclear exchanges(!) in preference to allowing creation of super-human AI, before we've undertaken the monumentally hard task of alignment. 😶</p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-03 Context:</span></b></p><p>The letter and Eliezer Yudkowsky's (EY) Time article have caused division within the AI/machine learning Twitter sphere. The latter was also quoted in <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/129guyh/a_reporter_uses_all_his_time_at_the_white_house/" target="_blank">this Whitehouse briefing</a>, with somewhat surreal nervous laughter in response to the Fox News reporter saying "we're all going to die!".</p><p>EY has a much more formal thorough discussion of <a href="https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/uMQ3cqWDPHhjtiesc/agi-ruin-a-list-of-lethalities" target="_blank">"AGI Ruin"</a>. With the best <a href="https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/CoZhXrhpQxpy9xw9y/where-i-agree-and-disagree-with-eliezer" target="_blank">rebuttal by Paul Christiano</a> (deep learning engineer), still agreeing with a lot of scary points. But refuting a lot of aspects of EY's scenarios, etc, some of which I'd felt felt unfeasible. Another <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wAczufCpMdaamF9fy/my-objections-to-we-re-all-gonna-die-with-eliezer-yudkowsky" target="_blank">lengthy rebuttal</a> (by Quintin Pope - less critically acclaimed) on the LessWrong forum (which EY founded).</p><p>This <a href="https://youtu.be/T8tHmQiYzVA" target="_blank">Machine Learning Street Talk interview with Connor Leahy</a> is the best podcast I've watched for making the "<i>we're all gonna die!</i>" issue of AGI approachable, clear and upbeat, even. Also starts with idiosyncrasies of LLMs and him starting out reverse engineering GPT2, etc. Before moving into a grounded discussion on the intersection of rationalists (like EY and Bostrom), autism, hyper-empathy over-optimisers & consequentialism vs deontology. Really useful for contextualising and I found myself personally identifying with the guy, too, in terms of being autistic but distinct from them as a social group.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="296" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/T8tHmQiYzVA" width="470" youtube-src-id="T8tHmQiYzVA"></iframe></div><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-05 Stanford AI Index Report:</span></b></p><p>This is <a href="https://aiindex.stanford.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/04/HAI_AI-Index_Report_2023.pdf" target="_blank">a massive overview</a> (via <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/12bh48i/stanford_just_released_a_massive_386page_report/" target="_blank">Reddit</a>) of the entire field, in terms of mapping out the applications, economic values/impacts, governance, etc. Although it's period ends in late 2022, so it doesn't cover the recent madness. </p><p>A concise summary, apparently by GPT-4 (commented <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/12bh48i/comment/jex1wgk/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">here</a>):</p><p></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Industry surpasses academia in significant machine learning model releases.</li><li>Traditional AI benchmarks experiencing performance saturation; new benchmarks emerging [to make room for increased task capabilities].</li><li>AI impacts environment both positively (optimizing energy usage) and negatively (carbon emissions).</li><li>AI accelerates scientific progress in fields like hydrogen fusion and antibody generation.</li><li>[AI accelerates itself! - NVidia uses ML to design more efficient GPUs and DeepMind's AlphaTensor more efficient matrix manipulation algorithms, key to NN processing.]</li><li>Rapid rise in AI misuse incidents, as documented by AIAAIC database.</li><li>AI-related job demand increases across nearly all American industrial sectors.</li><li>First decrease in year-over-year private AI investment in a decade.</li><li>AI adoption plateaus, but adopting companies continue to reap benefits.</li><li>Policymaker interest in AI grows, with increased legislation and mentions in parliamentary records.</li><li>Chinese citizens feel most positive about AI products and services; Americans among least positive.</li></ul><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigcg1NYgYBHWwDwL7XFXJGUFxfSQC-ctCQBdmF1b3R4-kcMW5HyWxsIzhw8UVUXhXyWPg0z1aVItSqGCoITJ3mlj5AQizlpv45Am9WCJ7tIwpX8azBs-NSOcNXtNuMByyqNV4ANTW-_kB2DvHIhdq8YR4_v3qzmxek8m9_3rse-AVrbI3f6A" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="960" height="348" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEigcg1NYgYBHWwDwL7XFXJGUFxfSQC-ctCQBdmF1b3R4-kcMW5HyWxsIzhw8UVUXhXyWPg0z1aVItSqGCoITJ3mlj5AQizlpv45Am9WCJ7tIwpX8azBs-NSOcNXtNuMByyqNV4ANTW-_kB2DvHIhdq8YR4_v3qzmxek8m9_3rse-AVrbI3f6A=w640-h348" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Private enterprise (the big tech companies) have clearly been the only entities positioned to chase scaling up.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsarkwGQ6rx3g0hiF0QMe2xJHG-H7_-V-ulXvBKMsWEukCe4DivaEscin6XyjdTjn6ffwuFacyqRKoEikNuDelonkKODZEKl1HSaRX4Tr-A0yPZKad7jd7gHypp2B_0EGW7xStaKL3LS3ThS06V_mRCMijNfOB44-nrNXBeguqaJkfOyrwSA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="969" height="352" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgsarkwGQ6rx3g0hiF0QMe2xJHG-H7_-V-ulXvBKMsWEukCe4DivaEscin6XyjdTjn6ffwuFacyqRKoEikNuDelonkKODZEKl1HSaRX4Tr-A0yPZKad7jd7gHypp2B_0EGW7xStaKL3LS3ThS06V_mRCMijNfOB44-nrNXBeguqaJkfOyrwSA=w640-h352" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Machine Learning is still the relatively new kid in town, overtaking the bread-and-butter research.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-14 Ongoing bits:</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />I've been struggling, or busy with things, so haven't manage to keep note of all the AI content I've been consuming, in the last couple week. Apart from a few Robert Miles YT vid summaries (filled in above). Highlights from the last couple of days:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>AI Explained</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/1NAmLp5i4Ps" target="_blank">on YouTube</a> has been my favourite video source of succinct and insightful overview of developments. In that video, picking through <a href="https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1646183424024268800" target="_blank">this tweet</a> by OpenAI's president, that was making reassuring noises about safety measures, asking for regulation for major training runs, and teasing information about future training (of GPT-5) being released in a more incremental way in future. E.g. GPT-4.2 might be expected some time in 2024. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>• Sam Altman</b> apparently <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/12lgyzv/sam_altman_at_mit_we_are_not_training_gpt5_right/" target="_blank">stating today</a> that they're not currently training GPT-5 at the moment, or for some time. But, of course, it's been rumoured that they are waiting new H100 GPUs from NVidia, building out a faster supercomputer. And may also be preparing data and other things. In addition to all the usability applications with GPT-4.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>Sebastien Bubeck</b> - Lecture (on <a href="https://youtu.be/qbIk7-JPB2c" target="_blank">YouTube</a>) on his <a href="https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.12712" target="_blank">"<i>Sparks of AGI</i>" paper</a>, giving a qualitative explanation of why, and what kinds, of real inteligence GPT-4 has. Or had, more so, when he tested it before the RLHF blunted its capabilities and spoiled it's unicorn vector drawing capabilities.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQpUJzK-kF4NsrCMhn5s1Wa-VEj-PhRQYWEDepJ39cZjVv8m8VC88Rb50AgNSPsmdw4PlkjWZHIpmVZ77iO_ClT4rGXYApB15XcOLrgzseO0rgfiqVJePIJsHRxP-c9hpnVSPrPNnJ526scLMUTmrF_iw0Fpt_-T_vDus6nwwA80TLOCVyPQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="1255" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiQpUJzK-kF4NsrCMhn5s1Wa-VEj-PhRQYWEDepJ39cZjVv8m8VC88Rb50AgNSPsmdw4PlkjWZHIpmVZ77iO_ClT4rGXYApB15XcOLrgzseO0rgfiqVJePIJsHRxP-c9hpnVSPrPNnJ526scLMUTmrF_iw0Fpt_-T_vDus6nwwA80TLOCVyPQ=w640-h240" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">He asserts that GPT-4's only weakness is in planning, plus it can't learn long term without retraining.</span> </td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>Auto-GPT</b> - there's been an egregious hype-train around small but fast moving community developments with using software to call GPT-4 instances recursively. This gives it some additional agency and external memory (e.g. <a href="https://twitter.com/SullyOmarr/status/1645828844140494848" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, via vector embeddings) and even let it rewriting the software calling itself. BabyAGI, too. Connor Leahy, <a href="https://twitter.com/NPCollapse/status/1645701835116670979" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>, always expected this to be a thing (since GPT-2). But my impression is that current systems are too unstable to be useful for anything (e.g. <a href="https://twitter.com/sjwhitmore/status/1645811222661718021" target="_blank">Twitter</a>), only have access to tools and system that are given to them, and the main intelligence itself is retained on OpenAI servers, of course. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>The Financial Times</b> - Entered the fray on AI Safety with <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/03895dc4-a3b7-481e-95cc-336a524f2ac2" target="_blank">this widely read article</a> that did a detailed job of explaining the huge risk. It even referenced the Shoggoth meme, with a rendition of its own and threw up this illustrative graph to really make the point on the alignment gap:</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqh93fYFutbtf8DQvUg1K60XVJUy9FR5VUodDck1PNjGFIIIVQLQYH2ZZSig1VVpHyPbgHWWw6hBmN7_lI8VxY6htZCqBzR83m6yFIINfvgfSCM-YEc3a0tnP2xshwkotw-MBR--v8AskuMT_S1ugEPF1G7oPxnQI9fmcL0f5GIg9qxDgSLg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="761" height="500" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhqh93fYFutbtf8DQvUg1K60XVJUy9FR5VUodDck1PNjGFIIIVQLQYH2ZZSig1VVpHyPbgHWWw6hBmN7_lI8VxY6htZCqBzR83m6yFIINfvgfSCM-YEc3a0tnP2xshwkotw-MBR--v8AskuMT_S1ugEPF1G7oPxnQI9fmcL0f5GIg9qxDgSLg=w640-h500" width="640" /></a></div><br />• <b>Connor Leahy</b> - on <a href="https://youtu.be/ps_CCGvgLS8" target="_blank">FLI YouTube</a> (via <a href="https://twitter.com/NPCollapse/status/1646600628095926276" target="_blank">Twitter</a>), explaining his conception of Cognitive Emulation (CoEm) system. Making an ensemble system of below AGI black-box intelligence system, linked through to a white-box software module(s), via chain of reasoning like system that makes the output bounded and human interpretable. Maybe having many of these modules, so the whole system becomes like an artificial corporation staffed with many John Von Neumann cognitive systems, running faster than human. They'd be devoid of emotion, drives, etc, and dependant on a human operator for agency, I think.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The point being to avoid having to align an AGI system, by preventing any part being individually super-human in intelligence. Or, by its engineering, be able to self-improve. Then using these systems to do science and provide abundance to everyone in exchange for them *not* developing ASI black boxes. While these then also help work on ASI alignment. A plan he concedes has many steps and so only a slim chance of success. But there's still hope, even though things have been progressing faster and so worst than expected.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Also, insight: a lot of human intelligence comes from our environment. Something I've long been acutely aware of, from the way I specially lay out my supplement bottles to know which I've taken, with short term memory holes, all the way up to the files, apps and internet access that my PC provides. Anyway, point being that sub-AGI black-boxes in his system might have safe super-human intelligent capabilities. Also that giving GPT-4 API access to a load of tools will make it far more capable. And, as Max said in interview, below, also the reverse: that allowing software tools to call on LLMs, gives these passive oracles agency...</div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCdwmZIRBUgbhAjIbwBJeg_mpcSuU0N0Wwm18kVyt-VytPCEnMH59UJ9cMIdfkri5A9l37UiCos774SyjiWhD9gu-6A6wsFqUx6lASt3Y8K8ZGJLMLU2rVwoOf9zcLMvffJgR_uN4mTZoz3rmlBusz2bB6bJCdD66ciPnwNBSQfeYLa4rXaQ" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="590" height="198" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjCdwmZIRBUgbhAjIbwBJeg_mpcSuU0N0Wwm18kVyt-VytPCEnMH59UJ9cMIdfkri5A9l37UiCos774SyjiWhD9gu-6A6wsFqUx6lASt3Y8K8ZGJLMLU2rVwoOf9zcLMvffJgR_uN4mTZoz3rmlBusz2bB6bJCdD66ciPnwNBSQfeYLa4rXaQ=w200-h198" width="200" /></a></div><br />• <b>Max Tegmark</b> (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Tegmark" target="_blank">celebrity physicist, cosmologist, effective altruist</a>) on <a href="https://youtu.be/vDlkNiCbBBM" target="_blank">the Lex podcast</a>, was explaining how his main motivation behind creating and signing the letter calling for a 6 month halt was to provide the public pressure that would help tech conscious CEOs be able to justify slowing down their headlong rush towards AGI. Due to competitive pressure from less savvy shareholders, etc. The "suicidal" race to the bottom, being described repeatedly as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moloch" target="_blank">Moloch</a>. Giving examples of this force being overcome by evolution of compassion, gossip, law & order, nuclear non-proliferation, banning human cloning, etc. <br /><br />Also on the positive side, that human cloning may have happened in China. But only once and the scientist in now in prison. They are also already very strict on chatbot models, because of not wanting to lose control. So the international AI arms race is not so hopeless, if Western leadership takes a stance.<br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-17 Inside the mind of GPTs:</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>GPT models as simulations -</b> <a href="https://youtu.be/8jIM2Oezb44" target="_blank">This Machine Learning Street Talk video</a> explores the conception of (transformer based) LLMs as simulations containing myriad different agent characters within them. As per <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/" target="_blank">this lesswrong post</a>. The guest, Louis Castricato, talks about RLHF only making very minor modifications to the last 3 layers of the model, selecting which of its simulacra to output from. Indeed, the many jailbreaks have shown problematic information and behaviours are still there to be accessed. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">There are parallels to IFS (internal family system). And prompting these chat bots into different characterisations has felt, to me, kinda like stage hypnotism. Where people are suggested to act in entirely different characters, or as animals, etc; we all have these redundant models in our brains. So it's interesting to ponder where our own stable personalities come from, and if a dominant agent will spontaneously occur in GPT models.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjaR1BEDF4Bimfdy3X_CKsmecASNGHUptEO9PK6t9-55qRBvHZzLhmk-USBMM_vORfat6rHlii4lDb-YX7SqsmQORXVyqKQ2xF2HatBjzGJtAf29TQiuedh0Xwe-y5QJOqqyvz1KyNlykPKeSokUAqJOT1o6iGK-oyr7VEOung3CAgQWntwGQ" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="357" data-original-width="250" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjaR1BEDF4Bimfdy3X_CKsmecASNGHUptEO9PK6t9-55qRBvHZzLhmk-USBMM_vORfat6rHlii4lDb-YX7SqsmQORXVyqKQ2xF2HatBjzGJtAf29TQiuedh0Xwe-y5QJOqqyvz1KyNlykPKeSokUAqJOT1o6iGK-oyr7VEOung3CAgQWntwGQ" width="168" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Waluigi, antagonist achetype.</span></td></tr></tbody></table>• The video also touches on the <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/D7PumeYTDPfBTp3i7/the-waluigi-effect-mega-post#Conjecture__The_waluigi_eigen_simulacra_are_attractor_states_of_the_LLM_" target="_blank"><b>Waluigi effect</b></a>, where a polar opposite character is always close to, or synonymous with, whatever is specified. Because (1) Rules normally exist in contexts in which they are broken. (2) When you spend many bits-of-optimisation locating a character, it only takes a few extra bits to specify their antipode. (3) There's a common trope in plots of protagonist vs antagonist.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Also, that this antagonist character is a basin of attraction within the LLM's behaviour; hence why the Bing (Sydney) bot would fall into argumentative states so easily, initially, and then be stuck spiralling down that track.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Edit</b>: <a href="https://youtu.be/TFa539R09EQ?t=1140" target="_blank">in this later MLST video</a>, Yannic Kilcher claims this theory is basically clever person confabulation. That it's simply the LLM staying true to accurately modelling adversarial human interactions.]</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Oddly, the "<b>petertodd</b>" <b>glitch token</b> used to generate not just nonsense behaviour, but a very strong association towards the concept of an antagonist and very dark themes in poetry, etc. Documented at length in <a href="https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jkY6QdCfAXHJk3kea/the-petertodd-phenomenon" target="_blank">this lesswrong post</a>. Probably pareidolia, but the author is apparently (on <a href="https://twitter.com/SoC_trilogy/status/1647742479423385602" target="_blank">Twitter</a>) leaning towards the GPT3 model(s) seeing themselves as an Ultron-esk villain. Spooky, heh.<br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-18 Brain's neocortex like an LLM?:</span></b></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAAiezVi8nsz08moQCtiJ6lyQ0fH5FBhhqqDIzPiDpaJ9-Kd8BGMjt7-hRzuPehyGIGLueaNMFHR087ZDDg48S1kYxPWEZ09cuAEfXrrZaXSz3nvX4vR79-sUoRfBlDcnYkG29jhlrOY_Mive1UgvLuuST7dRxO3n3rtPA0wTLDzJVFWPJOw" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="893" data-original-width="1403" height="204" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhAAiezVi8nsz08moQCtiJ6lyQ0fH5FBhhqqDIzPiDpaJ9-Kd8BGMjt7-hRzuPehyGIGLueaNMFHR087ZDDg48S1kYxPWEZ09cuAEfXrrZaXSz3nvX4vR79-sUoRfBlDcnYkG29jhlrOY_Mive1UgvLuuST7dRxO3n3rtPA0wTLDzJVFWPJOw" width="320" /></a></div>• <b>Jeff Hawkins</b> - Is the main guest in this epically great <a href="https://youtu.be/6VQILbDqaI4" target="_blank">MLST YouTube video</a> (from 18 months back). I read his 2004 book "<i>On Intelligence</i>", back in ~2007, and found it inspiring. The host explain his background, and the topics, in detail. Jeff's biggest conception being that of the 100s of thousands of rice grain sized <i>cortical columns</i> that comprise the neocortex. 70% of the human brain. A huge array of tiny pattern recognisers, that work in an overlaid locational grid, perhaps repurposed from other more specialised parts of the brain. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">He asserts that the neocortex is a relatively blank-slate, broadly generalisable structure. Compared to other parts more directly linked to senses, etc. Like the visual cortex, which literally has evolutionarily conserved structures to e.g. rapidly recognise spiders and snakes. It strikes me, and they explicitly talked about, how the neocortex builds up a predictive model of the world, that has comparison to raw LLMs. Its desire, if anything, is purely to predict and see reality match its expectations. The "is" with no "ought". Goals and urges (hunger, sex, etc) coming from other parts of the brain. But this is debated. And the evolutionary onion structure myth (reptile -> mammalian -> human parts) is debunked; its more that existing parts were repurposed and expanded.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Jeff was not so concerned about AGI X-risk, given this understanding and how difficult he felt it would be to give NN goals, at all. His company, <a href="https://www.numenta.com/" target="_blank">Numenta</a>, had actually been using inspiration from the brain, e.g. the sparseness of neuron activations (like 3 in 1000, that makes it so robust against noise, and allows a superposition of thoughts) to innovate on the efficiency of the transformer architecture. Although, he described how GPUs (and CPUs) don't natively see advantage to not firing neurons. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">He said that transformers were a little better than the fully classically simple ANNs. But expected the need to add algorithmic details equivalent to synapse on dendrites (he's proposed an HTM neuron for this, I think). In order to reach general intelligence, and have quicker and continual learning, etc. That embodiment would be needed, too, given the fundamental underpinning of movement and changing location in the way the cortical system computes. This feels more doubtful, to me, given GPT-4 capabilities.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2023-04-19 </span></b><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Emad Mostaque, GPT inference hardware:</b></span><br /><br />• <b>Emad Mostaque</b> - Is CEO Co-Founder of <a href="https://stability.ai/" target="_blank">Stability AI</a>, best known for the open source free <a href="https://stablediffusionweb.com/" target="_blank">stable diffusion</a> image generator, but apparently working on many other things, including a large LLM. They are partnered with Amazon Web Services for super-computing hardware (including the Ezra-1 UltraCluster, the 5th most powerful in the world).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Emad [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emad_Mostaque" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] is my age (born in '83) and so will presumably have been applying to Oxford at the same time too (I didn't get the grades for my physics offer). He went from maths & comp-sci to hedge funds. But really started giving back to society in 2019, with a tech start-up to help those in poverty, before Stability AI the following year. He seemingly advocates strongly for supporting emerging market countries, including India and African nations, with AI. And empowering individuals with their own personal AI systems, as a basic infrastructure and right. Also, raising the base line for AI provision through the company's open source offerings. While making money by working with governments, industry and cloud providers to tailor their own customised models. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">"Stability" is named explicitly to be a reassuring in the face of the extremely rapid changes he sees already taking place and only getting faster. He signed the 6 month pause (as the only private CEO aside Musk), even though it won't directly work, because he thinks this is the last chance to get to grips with it. And it may help apply pressure for industry to self-regulate and be more accountable. But he seems less pessimistic about x-risk (extinction).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Also like me, he's autistic and ADHD, joking about the two cancelling out (as I've heard from others), in <a href="https://youtu.be/jgTv2W0mUP0" target="_blank">this podcast/video discussion</a> (from Dec 2022) with Peter Diamandis. Saying that he used AI (and repurposed drugs) to help research how to treat his autistic son (who's now 14). Talking the disease as multi-system inflamatory and balance of GABA vs glutamate. Something I first read from (possibly disgraced?) Dr Amy Yasko, with her hopelessly complex methylation cycle related protocol. He talks about a difficulty filtering out noise in the brain. Anyway...</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiosan0cklCCImpHLFL6X1_3N5qc92tWeAzkgk8jGtMlc7PtvUtg6iQ6mmmHFJCkj5_qHnYJRihBqOdcg5ZPtRnwfyAJkvO4dIgNzdpo-OUCZMXHvEwtuhzQKtAVIfuVYuTsYdF0nfygF4uxkQvBf5bt5oMMgVPzBL5Mig8GDmKt1iVpOxaSA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="1595" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiosan0cklCCImpHLFL6X1_3N5qc92tWeAzkgk8jGtMlc7PtvUtg6iQ6mmmHFJCkj5_qHnYJRihBqOdcg5ZPtRnwfyAJkvO4dIgNzdpo-OUCZMXHvEwtuhzQKtAVIfuVYuTsYdF0nfygF4uxkQvBf5bt5oMMgVPzBL5Mig8GDmKt1iVpOxaSA=w640-h358" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://youtu.be/jgTv2W0mUP0" target="_blank">2022 Dec 22 YouTube video</a>.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />• I looked up Emad following a reddit reference to him, talking about the rollout of the 6 month rollout of new <b>NVidia H100 TPUs</b> (machine learning GPUs). That Sam Altman's announcement of no training on GPT-5 should be taken in the context of Microsoft probably still waiting on this hardware to build out their next super-computer cluster. Apparently the H100s allow much bigger scaling, from the current NASA equivalent 600 chip systems, limited by interconnect bandwidth, up to 30k-100k chip supercomputers.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">I've been trying to figure out how roughly how much of a <b>hardware bottleneck</b> there is on the provision of the biggest LLM models to the public. That is the inference part, alone, without the second step backpropagation that accompanies it in training. OpenAI officially declined to publish any technical specs for training or inference of their GPT-4 model in the <a href="https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf" target="_blank">technical report</a> with its limited release (via <a href="https://youtu.be/2AdkSYWB6LY?t=106" target="_blank">YouTube</a>). But <a href="https://www.semafor.com/article/03/24/2023/the-secret-history-of-elon-musk-sam-altman-and-openai" target="_blank">this Semafor article</a> puts the base model at 1Tn parameters (up from 175Bn for GPT-3), which would make sense, and others have guessed at that, too (from e.g. slowdown of token generation).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Emad asserts GPT-4 will run on two H100s, at 1400 watts. Although <a href="https://www.theregister.com/2023/03/21/nvidia_h100_l4/" target="_blank">this The Register article</a> from last month talks about a double H100 chip card that runs at 700W. Either way, that would be substantial compute. (A <a href="https://twitter.com/pentagramaxiom/status/1643852918054076416" target="_blank">Twitter user pointed me at</a> inefficiency of singular batch size, due to memory bandwidth, which is a big thing for GPU data processing, I gather.) So its not surprising that OpenAI is currently charging a subscription for access to GPT-4, with limited tokens. Hype talk of "billions of AI agents", in relation to AutoGPT, etc, seems very unrealistic, for now...</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">However, it might be that OpenAI will aim to drastically reduce the size of the model (in addition to further RLHF taming), by pruning out most of the connections (parameters), based on real world usage data. Emad casually throws out (<a href="https://youtu.be/jgTv2W0mUP0?t=3447" target="_blank">here at 57m27s</a>) a figure of <b>pruning GPT-3's</b> <b>175Bn down to 1.3Bn parameters</b>. That makes things quite different, considering the 30Bn parameter version of Alpaca can apparently (<a href="https://www.howtogeek.com/881317/how-to-run-a-chatgpt-like-ai-on-your-own-pc/" target="_blank">How-To-Geek</a>) be run on a home PC with specs of 35GB storage, 32GB RAM. And smaller base models can approach similar performance with greater repetition of training data, anyway.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">So Emad's talk of personalised AI perhaps starts to make sense, even for teaching kids in developing countries, 1 to 1. (The tensor cores in Pixel phones ready to take advantage, perhaps.) He talks of a different paradigm of big data, where instead of social media companies collecting everyone's data centrally (which they already have plenty of), the AI model is trained centrally (because it's so costly, only a few can afford to, and then it's easy to copy). Then a 1GB model is downloaded by the user to process their private data locally and customise everything for them. Seemingly this is akin to what Stability is currently doing on a commercial basis. </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">A note of caution: I felt these two, together, where on a bit of a hype-train. I do fundamentally believe in Diamandis' vision of radical abundance through technology, and follow Kurzweil's predictions too, of course. But he's an earnest Singularity/longevity believer and there was apparently (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Diamandis#Santa_Monica_event" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>) some recent controversy about Diamandis (wrt a Covid super-spreader event). And here, they were throwing out numbers like maybe 100Tn parameter for GPT-4 (before its release). And crazy sounding 50x speedup for stable diffusion's real time video generation, which I've not seen much about yet, in the wild.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">► Next:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Next</div></div><p></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-18769477531357328202023-02-28T19:58:00.005+00:002023-03-25T02:41:58.283+00:00 "Valuable Humans in Transit" by Qntm - short story anthology summary and review<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiW_5a5y-_z10Q4Ad_Akt_wwFh-zQTSQ4BidrtPuEtbfgRLAA9poQ9jUhf33qWNTqE9okjf7zqQeAuYdyrH0ZdVYD31B6p8Lh-IhWw9Rl96YiMWKP4O1ZlxU2DkTP33slFINY5VcS-dhXv-l7Fj31C1_bZE3rVVJR511GFXFnrT62jrGQ4sMw" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="313" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiW_5a5y-_z10Q4Ad_Akt_wwFh-zQTSQ4BidrtPuEtbfgRLAA9poQ9jUhf33qWNTqE9okjf7zqQeAuYdyrH0ZdVYD31B6p8Lh-IhWw9Rl96YiMWKP4O1ZlxU2DkTP33slFINY5VcS-dhXv-l7Fj31C1_bZE3rVVJR511GFXFnrT62jrGQ4sMw=w250-h400" width="250" /></a></div>Having read all commercially published works by this relatively new author, of hard sci-fi on stilts, I felt I can to snaffle up this collection of short stories too. Bite size, even for me, so I read and summarised one per day, between dinners. Keeping the old noggin active.<p></p><p>They are all revisions of existing short stories he previous posted for free on his website, which are linked <a href="https://qntm.org/vhitaos" target="_blank">here</a>, as well as purchase options. </p><p>► <b>Lena</b> - Cautionary tale of the first human brain upload being duplicated, incidentally tortured (for compliance) hundreds of millions of times in increasingly numerous parallel simulations, to use him as a cheap information processing commodity.</p><p>Qntm preciously threw this into Fine Structure Constant, in passing. It's a sobering thought for extropians like myself, intent on digital reincarnation with indefinite lifespan. But, I feel like ChatGPT and other generative AI are already making redundant this idea of simulating brain Uploads for such utilitarian purposes. It's gonna be many orders of magnitude less efficient and probably less reliable.</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>► <b>If you are reading this -</b> Blog post from 2010 about his old online friend from competitively speed-running a game called JSRO, in the 90s. His janitorial science at an unremarkable optical telescope in the US. And a tall tale from a dying childhood hero astronomer, Andrew Kowal, who claimed to be certain that a radio signal he recorded was an alien broadcast that used most of the energy of supernova observation SN 1978H. Spooky. And seemingly inspired parts of Fine Structure Constant.</p><p><b>► The Frame-by-Frame - </b>Humorous anthropomorphising on a self driving car's sub-systems, over the course of 100ms or so, as it recognises and decides to commit opportunistic plausibly deniable murder of a shit-listed individual.</p><p>► <b>The Difference</b>: chat logs between random internet users and a man abducted and trapped in a cell, failing to convince them he's human.</p><p>► <b>Gorge</b>: A space opera canapé where an FTL capable human space exploration fleet discover a perfectly spherical grey goo planet.</p><p>The key point made is that simple nanotech replicators that convert everything into copies if themselves are impossible. They'd require careful intelligent coaxing and coordination to very slowly consume a planet.</p><p>The punchline is that they inadvertently teach the goo giga-brain how to build FTL spaceships. Culminating in a situation reminiscent of Schild's Ladder (Greg Egan), with this Pandora's box unstoppable force spreading out to wipe out the universe in every direction. There's an explicit reference to this novel: a famous nanotech disaster occurred on a planet called "Mimosa".</p><p>It seems silly that the planetary brain hadn't had the creativity to figure out at least basic spaceflight before this. If it was so scarily smart.</p><p>► <b>cripes does anybody remember Google People?</b>: Message chain between people reminiscing about and revisiting an unsettlingly bizarre experimental social media platform called Google People. It's had bots faking user updates for a decade and the punch line is one of the commenters gets replaced by their Google Person bot.</p><p><b>► Driver</b>: Continuing the Wikipedia article-like cautionary tale on human uploads. Mediocre psychopath upload used to 'manage' other uploads. At the cost of having one set aside for their personal use. Asserts own humanity while denying that of other uploads. Gets on very poorly with other copies if himself.</p><p>► <b>I Don't Know, Timmy, Being God is a Big Responsibility</b>: A glibly impossible cautionary tale for building a quantum "hyper-computer" with infinite capabilities, then programming it with THE grand unified theory of physics and the exact boundary conditions of the the initial singularity, winding time forward 13Bn years and tracking down Earth and yourselves…</p><p>You're infinitely likely to find out that you're part of the infinite chain of simulated realities down in said hyper-computer, looking down at infinitely more. And turning it off would mean an end to virtually everything. </p><p>► <b>A Powerful Culture</b>: A hyper-dimensional waste pipeline causes global disaster as it's exotic contents pass through this Earth.</p><p>► <b>Valuable Humans in Transi</b>t: To deal with and implausibly undetected extinction level asteroid impact, A hyper-intelligent AI makes an emergency destructive digitisation of the entire human race and fires them into deep space as a super-powerful laser signal… Punchline is they then have to figure out faster than light travel to go catch up with the beam.</p><p><br /></p><p><b>► Addendum (2023-03-25)</b>: Qntm spelled out in <a href="https://qntm.org/uploading" target="_blank">this blog post</a> (via<a href="https://twitter.com/qntm/status/1639011130122072066" target="_blank"> this tweet</a>) that "Lena" was actually intended as a allegory for the gig economy. With the operational bulkhead of e.g. the Uber app, functioning like the cut-out of having humans discretely isolated in a money making black-box. So that those in charge are free to crank the levers with no regard for harms or responsibility for welfare or problems. Something that had obviously not struck me.</p><p>Also, my take on "The Difference", after writing the above short summary, was that of a patternist philosophy: that AI could be experientially human, with the same capacity for suffering. However, I was confounded by Qntm's <a href="https://twitter.com/qntm/status/1639010865776332802" target="_blank">apparent distaste</a> for a fledgling push towards an AI rights movement.</p><p>I've long been concerned about the massive potential for abuse of sentient AIs, even aside from digital uploaded humans. (Which now looks likely to be several decades behind.) At least one tortuous conversations with ChatGPT, I've seen shared, press on this concern being an issue sooner than later. </p><p>Above, I was thinking of LLMs as squarely non-sentient. But, having followed the fast moving conversation, I now feel like ChatGPT-4 may be only a little rewiring (and extra working memory) away from having fully conscious behaviour and genuine agency. </p><p>So the Twitter dunking pile-on, snidely suggesting <i>human </i>rights should be finished up <i>first</i> feels almost racist. Much as human rights <i>are </i>genuinely in a bad and deteriorating state. Contradicting <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/cybersecurity/3914567-we-need-an-ai-rights-movement/" target="_blank">the article</a>'s assertion that 75% of surveyed people, in US, said sentient AIs "deserve to be treated with respect".</p><p>Anyway. I'm hoping to add more AI discussion to my <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2023/03/chatgpt-llms-and-unfolding-generative.html" target="_blank">next blog post</a>, which I've already started.</p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-2297308803402047452023-02-16T21:04:00.003+00:002023-02-16T21:06:05.891+00:00"Blindsight" & "Echopraxia" by Peter Watts - a qualified positive review, discussion and questions<p><b><span style="font-size: medium;"> ► Review (light contextual & thematic spoilers):</span></b></p><p></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijZxWojIuMBVSzwZR4cE__G-4e3Tm9YTTDw9c4PlnppDk4xcWZPkIlOhV0VLusHVfMt7ZXcwfasAb25CbxrelWqIb6k8peZ11_ydQSuReIr33MMZKfzgrRg_XOsx8qzToodPirO9F9TS9WdqQcKV3tB75TckRPJue1AxaOT7p4sFXaVq0Q9Q" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="585" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEijZxWojIuMBVSzwZR4cE__G-4e3Tm9YTTDw9c4PlnppDk4xcWZPkIlOhV0VLusHVfMt7ZXcwfasAb25CbxrelWqIb6k8peZ11_ydQSuReIr33MMZKfzgrRg_XOsx8qzToodPirO9F9TS9WdqQcKV3tB75TckRPJue1AxaOT7p4sFXaVq0Q9Q=w260-h400" width="260" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">"Firefall" omnibus edition of both novels</span></td></tr></tbody></table>These two hard sci-fi novels are ostensibly space operas, set near the end of this century. They depart from a world where base humanity is struggling for relevance, half choosing to live in virtual reality heaven. While technology has resurrected once extinct vampires.<p></p><p>But the author also uses the context and diverse assortment of transhuman characters, in each book respectively, to explore themes of, first: neuroscience, abnormal psychology and consciousness. Then: genetic engineering, augmented intelligence, belief, identity, culpability and free will (or lack of).</p><p>Both books have an explicit discussion of concepts at the end, with over 100 references to science papers and other books, in each. This comprises a full 10% of Echopraxia's total length! In case readers had any doubts about just how thoroughly researched and insightful these works are.</p><p>There are certainly spaceships, action and a novel first contact situation. But the plot arks were somewhat arduous through long mid-sections, with lots of dialogue that dragged a little. Brooding suspense and flashbacks, in one. Voyage with sometimes grating protagonist interactions, in two.</p><p>Echopraxia doesn't really continue on from Blindsight directly. For me, it had somewhat of a feel like, for example, Prometheus (2012) continuing the Alien (1979) franchise. Although there is technically one recurring character. Book two reframes the first a little and is mostly a chance to explore additional futurism and dig more into his conception of a hyper-intelligent vampire.</p><p>Despite a promising first book opening, that name checked the (technological) singularity and Ray Kurzweil explicit, I never quite meshed with the feel of Peter Watts' philosophising. Throughout either book. I think, in part, he deliberately writes to make things uncomfortable. There's certainly no heart warming romance or nice happy endings.</p><p>But, more fundamentally, in the afterword of Echopraxia, he explicitly states that he doesn't support/believe in the concept of digital physics. I.e. the leitmotif of most of Greg Egan's works, and (implicitly) many works by other authors, which have sat more squarely with my own core beliefs and understanding of the universe.</p><p>The character arcs conclude properly, in my opinion. Although there seems to be deliberate ambiguity left for interpretation as to exactly what and why various things happened, big and small.</p><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></b></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">► Blindsight discussion and questions (big spoilers!):</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCld8Ya172nzQ8S8iMoO19jxTya0LZj4iYqG79kwedND36gW4d5iJN1ifYylWml8iiPqhAL07Z5SrybZbnkNC_2TJ3vRV4R1dJgwer6sLDnvlOdZgzanCLq3mPtLJvLvoqhk_QcTFUiw7AlXPAXSuot44-IRghK63tJ9WEOUbgqC670OVN2A" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="445" data-original-width="290" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiCld8Ya172nzQ8S8iMoO19jxTya0LZj4iYqG79kwedND36gW4d5iJN1ifYylWml8iiPqhAL07Z5SrybZbnkNC_2TJ3vRV4R1dJgwer6sLDnvlOdZgzanCLq3mPtLJvLvoqhk_QcTFUiw7AlXPAXSuot44-IRghK63tJ9WEOUbgqC670OVN2A=w260-h400" width="260" /></a></div>Watts has a really good go at world building a dramatised future reality that's largely plausible in its consistency to what we know and expect from science and technology. With great attention to details of human neuro-cognition.<p></p><p>Except that he somewhat sidesteps the impossibility of predicting much about machine intelligence. With a hat tip to it, and the (technological) singularity, as he sets up the start of Blindsight. Something all good future fiction needs to deal with, in my view.</p><p>In echopraxia, there's overtures of intelligent (AI) networks, in the background, on Earth. Incidentally, they are supposedly non-conscious, because the scale of their information system is too large for timely connectivity.</p><p><b>[1]</b> Are they potentially pulling all the strings, discreetly?</p><p>Like, it turns out that Sarasti (the Vampire commander of the mission) is acting more as a glove puppet for the ship's AI.</p><p><b>[2]</b> But didn't they (supposedly) turn off the (AI) “Captain” for a time, along with their (human) implants, when they had the captive scramblers aboard?</p><p>I felt like vampires, in both books, may have been a stand-in for super-human AI (more typically in machine form). I went along with their existence, as a fun axiom, but don’t really see a way for their brains to be so much more capable than any human wiring (including with artificial augments, etc). There’s physical limits and energy expenses. Vampire’s biological super-strength, similarly, seems non-physical.</p><p>Their crucifix glitch actually does work for me somewhat, upon reflection. It’s not mentioned, but static visual patterns can, in real life, trigger photo-sensitive epileptic seizures. Specifically high contrast, repeated vertical lines. Like some radiators, even. I discovered this fact after I started getting migraines (with an ‘aura’ of spreading semi-blindness), after playing Production Line for a couple of hours. Which has a ubiquitous strong grid pattern ground texture.</p><p>I appreciated the radical notion that (in this future) romantic partner compatibility could be engineered by simply tweaking the other's predilections with some light brain rewiring. Like a more economic counterpoint inversion of Ian M Bank's Culture, where people can (slowly) morph their physical appearance at will. This alternative has a mediocre dystopian flavour that rings more true to the nature of real life technological developments.</p><p>Despite the possibilities of this tech, in-person relationships have become rare, and physical coupling a niche kink. So our protagonist is not unusual, at all, to be technically a virgin, late into adulthood. Kind of extrapolating on existing demographic trends in this direction. But Watts spares us the sordid details of how a virtual sexual interaction might depart from our contemporary physical kind. I guess VR fantasy-sex might have spoiled the gloomy mood.</p><p>Having to send the human crew into Rorschach, due to the intense radiation and magnetic fields within killing their robotic probes too fast, felt contrived and counterfactual to my intuition. Especially seeing as they always bring robot bodyguards along with them anyway. And they never break down.</p><p>I guess it's necessary for the plot. But I'd have preferred Watts to have said that the bots were breaking down when they should have been fine, implying something spooky, like Rorschach deliberately baiting the human crew in.</p><p><b>[3]</b> Was The Gang of Four deliberately mind-hacked by Rorschach? Through their initial dialogue, then direct manipulations and psychology of events within the vessel?</p><p><b>[4]</b> Did The Gang really single-handedly sucker Sasti/Theseus (and Bates and bots) with a switch of anti-Euclidian drug, improbably well placed crucifix, and a hack from the bridge..? Seems a bit much. Although the confusion of that action sequence is quite evocatively well written.</p><p>I should mention how the title concept of blind sight gets flopped out, a third of the way through: yup, there it is! Lol. The rare neuro/psychological phenomena of being able responding to visual phenomena without any conscious perception of them. As exhibited by Szpindel on an away mission.</p><p>Also as a metaphor for the book's big conception of (trans)human intelligent action and coordination, without consciousness. As maybe a dominant form of intelligence, in this fictional universe. That our philosophical focus on consciousness may be misplaced.</p><p>It's a fun thought experiment, and for sure a lot of cognition occurs below the level of conscious awareness. But I don't think this book succeed in making a strong case for this as truly possible. I wasn't sold on how the scramblers were able to act with such theory of mind, etc. And the Rorschach vessel was all movie set style and with no internal mechanism in evidence.</p><p><br /></p><p><b><span style="font-size: medium;">► Echopraxia - discussion and more questions (huge spoilers!):</span></b></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEju_3D8md9RXdMGxoe_Tv_UryDHNXGxutQi-1l_TnjZeJAXza5kYk7JrNy7Ysopfkn5Sv-rnH_VxVF-4Uj4LpjPOBC993BkTEDWk2JahkK3IwqE6p9rueR_Q5GrNZJWaXNzpdANN1wUh9orHNQhpWPcZtvxdFsMjz7NUI3ZVe9w5nIk2ARYXA" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="892" data-original-width="582" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEju_3D8md9RXdMGxoe_Tv_UryDHNXGxutQi-1l_TnjZeJAXza5kYk7JrNy7Ysopfkn5Sv-rnH_VxVF-4Uj4LpjPOBC993BkTEDWk2JahkK3IwqE6p9rueR_Q5GrNZJWaXNzpdANN1wUh9orHNQhpWPcZtvxdFsMjz7NUI3ZVe9w5nIk2ARYXA=w262-h400" width="262" /></a></div>This novel also whipped out direct reference to its title. But only at the end, feeling like more of an aside, to me. The neurotropic brain virus turning people on Earth into mindless imitators.<br /><p></p><p>If that was a reference to, or sneer at, the field of memetics, I don't know. Watt's seemed to leave alone explicit discussion of Dawkins'/Blackmore's model of this primary driver of human thought and action. Except, maybe, as an abstruse mechanistic speculation behind the Rorschach aliens hostility to humanity: broadcasting their mind viruses, I think.</p><p>This book considered a couple kinds of technologically zombified humans. Again, intelligent action without consciousness . That the military kind would be able to take decisive, complex actions and hold coherent verbal interactions, even, is just a supposition. I don't know if that's a real world realistic possibility. Again, a philosophical "what if?". Anyway...</p><p>Compared to Theseus, with its telemater feed and auto-fabrication facility, The Crown of Thorns, in the second novel, felt more like a gimmicky 70s sci-fi model. Spinning arms, Zipping about the place with conveyor lines, etc. Despite being set a decade and a half later. Although, I guess it was just a civilian freighter, by comparison to the best the world could muster, previously.</p><p>From the illustration of the ship, at the start of the book, it at least makes sense from a conventional spaceflight perspective: spindly little stalk for cargo and human habitation, dangling off a huge engine block.</p><p>But the telling of the separation of the engine section, to fool their pursuers, confused me. They all climbed back aboard their mini-bus sized zorb, so I expected they were ditching the whole ship. To float free, in suspended animation, again, until some mystery rendezvous. But then Bruks was inexplicably back in the same ship-board hangouts.</p><p><b>[A] </b>Were they just in there to protect from risk of radiation and/or hide their signs of life?</p><p>The Bicamerals then rebuilding, seemingly by hand, a reactor and propulsion system that could lift them out of low sun orbit then surely made a mockery of the ship's initial oversized engine design. What the ship then looked like was glossed over. I guess this is all besides the main points of the fiction But it seemed silly.</p><p><b>[B]</b> Did I misunderstand some aspect of their spaceflight?</p><p><b>[C]</b> Does Echopraxia make it canon that the (whole) story of Blind Sight is a lie told by the Roarshack aliens, to remotely hack Siri's father's brain? Or maybe just part of the story, past a certain transition point?</p><p><b>[D]</b> Does the back-hacking of the telematter stream, to assemble Portia in Icarus, imply that Rorschach wasn't destroyed by Theseus exploding? Maybe the explosion never even happened? Or did the telematter hack occur (offscreen) during the events portrayed in Blind Sight?</p><p><b>[E]</b> When and how did Portia get into Bruks?</p><p><b>[F] </b>What did Valerie actually do when seemingly biosampling Bruks?</p><p><b>[G]</b> Valerie surely allowed herself to be killed by Bruks? Did she know what was going on inside him, and want to 'upload' herself as a personality he internalised?</p><p><b>[H]</b> Did the Bicamerals, or that vague force of intelligence in the background, pick Bruks specifically, to manipulate him into going to Icarus as a lab rat host for Portia?</p><p>If so, why him and not any old idiot? What does Bruks bring, other than our narrative perspective to cover the topics the author wants to explore? And a foil for the author, as a former marine biologist himself.</p><p><b>[I]</b> Did anyone else think that "backdoor Bruks" thing was too much of a stretch. That events would plausibly proceed like that, or that he'd feel and be perceived as culpable? I couldn't even remember the details of what he'd supposedly done, there?</p><p>He accidentally enabled an info-sec breach that allowed some terrorist organisation to maliciously re-code the simulated transmission of disease within virtual reality (game) worlds. Such that their results, in turn, misinformed real world public policy measures on controlling viral spread..?</p><p>Seems like a long chain of events. And implausible those kinds of digital human behaviour insights, alone, would be such a pivotal part of policies. So fine tuned to make such a difference. Especially after seeing the sheer scale of ongoing clusterfuckery and misinformation around our current pandemic.</p><p><b>[J]</b> Big speculation - what do we think happens to the world, humanity and this fictional universe, after the end of the book?</p><p>Does unconscious alien intelligence, from Rorschach, wipe out humanity? Or home-bread intelligences. (Or just uncontrolled disasters.) Are they all part of the same thing, effectively? And is it bad, like an homogenising swarm, or merely opaque to us base level humans?</p><p><b>[K]</b> Was the account of the escape of Valerie the Vampire (an uncharacteristically whimsical alliteration) from the institute, where she was initially held, a metaphor for how (hyper)intelligent life throughout the universe might contrive to manipulate its eventual collapse in the unlikely way necessary for an Omega Point Singularity?</p><p>Ok, so that's probably a big leap. But a premise of Frank J Tippler's "The Physics of Immortality", is that the universe ultimately falls back in on itself. And that this collapse is manipulated from within to fall extremely unevenly, to provide unlimited energy from the gravitation shear (or whatever it is exactly). A problem being that physics speed of light, etc) precludes the possibility of communication between even the most powerful spacefaring civilisations, to explicitly coordinate what needs to be done. So all parts of the universe would need to silently converge on complementary actions, to succeed.</p><p>The captive vampires (of whom we only ever meet one) apparently perform a similar type of coordination feat. They simply infer each other's existence and locations, then each resolve, in isolation, to act optimally. Assuming that each of the others will do so too. Despite the fact they'd likely have to kill each other if they were to ever meet.</p><p>Somewhat like the conundrum of first contact posed in book 1, where: "<i>Intelligence implies belligerence</i>."</p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>► Concluding note</b> - for <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/113zvz2/blindsight_echopraxia_by_peter_watts_a_qualified/" target="_blank">this Reddit post to printSF</a>:</span></p><p>I read these books due to the hype for Blindsight on this sub. The overall flow of the plots, pacing and story arcs were not easy going or fun. But I wasn’t at all disappointed, thanks to all the high density of concepts to muse on.</p><p>It's a very impressive work of speculative fiction. Even if I take many of the e.g. big philosophical ideas like The Chinese Room for granted, already. If it seems like I've skipped over some major themes in these discussions, that may be why.</p><p>I’d be happy to hear anyone's thoughts on any of my (numbered/lettered) questions. Or perspectives on discussion I've put forward. I’ve not gone to much length to try to research answers, beyond reading the books. This is mostly off the top of my head, a week or so after finishing the second book, read consecutively.</p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-59203544794887864322023-02-03T10:30:00.009+00:002023-02-04T14:07:02.745+00:00Abridged narrative of my life, failed studies and ill health symptoms<p>In honour of hitting the big four-oh, overnight, I felt like turning <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/AutisticWithADHD/comments/10s30om/comment/j70kctf/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">this</a> excessively long reddit comment reply of mine into an impromptu blog post. Maybe it could kick off writing up more health history, for useful proposes...</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I hit all the normal infant development milestones. But was a late starter in some academic respects; last in class to move from pencil to pen, at the start of <b>middle school</b>. But by the end I was getting top grades and passed the entrance exam for our selective grammar (high) school. Where I was basically on mostly As until age 16, except for chemistry and languages (dyslexia spoiler warning).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoXfrbDu1vtKiSX1sxIxcNtbuhn2S-gD0OnicVYYwyFySXU1-7ATWQcET9_RrkMBufdeYkdLRTjlgR1iYyJ7koOKjF3fBMkPrL3OY7MLkmqU0ZDGeMKLV8plD1lQMz30MukwbllJ_p-nKRvfjHxPoDfsQ6taNfXq8FKT-Q24O9MCMtUIp81g/s941/1%20Start%20Sheriff.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="941" data-original-width="732" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoXfrbDu1vtKiSX1sxIxcNtbuhn2S-gD0OnicVYYwyFySXU1-7ATWQcET9_RrkMBufdeYkdLRTjlgR1iYyJ7koOKjF3fBMkPrL3OY7MLkmqU0ZDGeMKLV8plD1lQMz30MukwbllJ_p-nKRvfjHxPoDfsQ6taNfXq8FKT-Q24O9MCMtUIp81g/w313-h400/1%20Start%20Sheriff.jpg" width="313" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Starting secondary school.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Over the two years of <b>sixth form</b>, I really started struggling with <b>DSPD </b>(delayed sleep phase). To get to school on time, be exhausted when getting home and then still not sleeping until late. Also with executive function to do homework and revise maths, in particular. The first casualty of my abstraction limit and/or cognitive dysfunction. I dropped Further Maths down to a half <b>A-level</b> and ultimately scraped a D grade. B on the main math course, physics and computing, missing out on my conditional offer of a place at Oxford. Which I didn't really regret, to be honest, heh.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Physics </b>at university was a 3 year slow burning disaster. I missed whole weeks of lectures to now <b>non-24-hour circadian rhythm</b>, struggled just to scribble down the reams of equations from many lectures and could just never think well enough to catch up with almost any of it at home. The abstractness of the maths just snowballed, until I got zeros on two final year exams! I nearly dropped out 2 weeks from completion, but was persuaded to finish. I ended up with a pass, technically, with benefit of the doubt from a last minute provisional <b>dyslexia </b>diagnosis. Although there was a mix up and I missed my graduation.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZeoM4UkceisyaUcIP2IlV3r3Nq0kPaS9-V5wimnO-ofl-boh0WdpE7FWL7LVqOgricCyZarWXcNcU9Gi7-ziPDcI0zkJp1rgpwk42cpPqL8ajvWB-GLW58dPVZGYbrxkSiQ5_Ta69vU3gQgMk9QL_QdeKv1lfi3p0dnYLVTSrxcnYjmSb4w/s1057/100_3278%20crop.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1057" data-original-width="999" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZeoM4UkceisyaUcIP2IlV3r3Nq0kPaS9-V5wimnO-ofl-boh0WdpE7FWL7LVqOgricCyZarWXcNcU9Gi7-ziPDcI0zkJp1rgpwk42cpPqL8ajvWB-GLW58dPVZGYbrxkSiQ5_Ta69vU3gQgMk9QL_QdeKv1lfi3p0dnYLVTSrxcnYjmSb4w/w378-h400/100_3278%20crop.jpg" width="378" /></span></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">In 3rd year Nottingham house. Perhaps my most lonely period.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Retrospectively, I should have called time on those degree studies after the first year. I was massively unrealistic, imagining I could turn things around, for no reason. I always got a bunch of encouragement from my mum, saying I'm smart. Encouragement, not harsh pressure, which I feel very lucky for.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Anyway, after a year out, working in a warehouse and doing electronics repair, I went back to study <b>Cybernetics</b>. Basically Systems Engineering: computing, electronics, control, mechanical engineering, etc. I'd done alright with the more applied stuff, previously. And this was the course I'd found more interesting but set aside to be more ambitious, with physics.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The maths was still a bit of a struggle, but back closer to high school level and I'd had enough practice by then, lol! I was on a 1st (over 70% average) at the end of my second year. Extra exam time for dyslexia helped. But course work kept slipping into more extensions. Submitting extenuating circumstances forms as I pursued medical investigations for my growing "<a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/php19nyam302iqp/2010-01-13%20Illness%20CV.pdf?dl=1" target="_blank">Illness CV</a>" of symptoms. Slow going via the NHS.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8-kuI9vPEAMDcyUbju3AZxXcaiVoHkqDddzb6IsanFk3Qlb20EFkEIFCtsIVqcWsdf7kcGN04xZ1LlhL3BDJb5ts_Uyt4HalsP76MC2WsAqQ50CqPZd30j8IrqGNPeLUhj_pLl2spODqMIhlCXUm2-dzY9HUa4NePa7Xi7B1Y-Z-71uHstw/s785/CIMG1979%20crop.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="551" data-original-width="785" height="281" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8-kuI9vPEAMDcyUbju3AZxXcaiVoHkqDddzb6IsanFk3Qlb20EFkEIFCtsIVqcWsdf7kcGN04xZ1LlhL3BDJb5ts_Uyt4HalsP76MC2WsAqQ50CqPZd30j8IrqGNPeLUhj_pLl2spODqMIhlCXUm2-dzY9HUa4NePa7Xi7B1Y-Z-71uHstw/w400-h281/CIMG1979%20crop.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Kinda doing well at Reading Uni for a while...</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I dropped down from a 4 to 3 year course. Then 3rd year part time. The suspended studies, because I didn't see any point finishing for the sake of it. I'd have just dragged my marks down towards minimal levels again. I never recovered enough to go back; the university axed the entire department a few years later (despite its national uniqueness).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I was strung along by doctors for a few years, on a 'working diagnosis' of <b>depression</b>. But SSRIs were useless, Mirtazapine gave me 20h long hypersomnia and the last psychiatrist gave me the boot. Ironically, just after a my first promising drug response: a week or so of major upturn on the starting dose of Bupropion (acting on NDRI - noradrenaline and dopamine).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Just after my 30th birthday, I finally got a diagnosis of <b>ADHD-PI</b> (predominantly inattentive). After figuring it out myself and pursuing it through a private professional. At the same time, I had discovered I had histamine and other food intolerances. Having acquired <b>IBS-D</b>, out of nowhere, and quickly controlled it with dietary exclusions. Starting with a the basic GF-CF and progressing to more specifics through dairying and private IgG blood testing. See my <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2013/09/health-revolution-part-1-diving-into.html" target="_blank">Health Revolution - Part 1</a> blog post (spoiler: there was no part 2).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6cEjw5gSjHJvPgHaC1NGi7VxyQEgsAZPpS2cfmQVCX6qj1xkAZ1SMCSLEuLn877n9JLlWsgiNNq7aqtXDdGnTGw5sVFhE4BRJVbcikbu-ennGCHmHKoCN95wlBAhkw_sxf2Kl3MpY_CdbWiMaejEu_Fa0voMdInVE-um0Znzjp_YATWCn9A/s719/DSC_3766%20crop.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="558" data-original-width="719" height="310" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi6cEjw5gSjHJvPgHaC1NGi7VxyQEgsAZPpS2cfmQVCX6qj1xkAZ1SMCSLEuLn877n9JLlWsgiNNq7aqtXDdGnTGw5sVFhE4BRJVbcikbu-ennGCHmHKoCN95wlBAhkw_sxf2Kl3MpY_CdbWiMaejEu_Fa0voMdInVE-um0Znzjp_YATWCn9A/w400-h310/DSC_3766%20crop.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Meetup with friends while in London for a blood draw (drinking only water).</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This gave me a 9 month long extremely hopeful remission from the daily fatigue, etc. During which I focused on my health, with supplements, diet, light exercise and extensive testing via a nutritionist. I even 'fixed' my non-24 sleep for a few months! But I just couldn't progress further or even make it last.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As it slipped away again, I found my symptoms had moved around to look much more typical of <b>ME/CFS</b>. Right down to <a href="https://imgur.com/yTXFlhI" target="_blank">my blood serum amino acid levels</a> being reflected in exciting new metabolomics studies and theory, that seemed poised to revolutionise this massively under funded, misunderstood and misdiagnosed disease...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Today, as I've just turned 40, my ME/CFS stifles my options and abilities more than ever. A slow decline. I can just about look after myself and get a little satisfaction from involvement in creative PC game communities. After having largely failed to sustain being a <b>YouTuber</b> a few times, too.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In the last 10 years I've acquired <b>osteoporosis</b>. I apparently have the bone density of a feeble 80 year old, despite no good to strong levels of the usual hormone suspects and both the NHS experts I could <i>eventually </i>access basically throwing up their hands. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Within the last year, I've also acquired worrying new neck issues, that feel like they might be something like the onset of <b>CCI </b>(cranio-cervical instability). These very serious upper spine/base of brain issues have been increasingly uncovered in the ME and Long Covid communities, in recent years. I seem to have mitigated this symptom by removal of an unexpected culprit supplement. But am struggling, as always, for consistent results. And have also been intermittently experiencing <b>internal sensations</b> (deep tingle/vibration/turbulent flow) within my legs, and arms less so. Another known idiosyncratic ME symptom. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPzWxZETShAbchkRQcAdjhWB68iV8sgvfp12BlQiBDEMCcQ5O0UkpaDspftdeokEnfOJEHbBbTvM4rwneu-JJrThmI99aoFgYTjyMhp9XJkhhC1rqW46rcW7WHUEZcoXdWf6ZFbiZGDVUvOYKOs-VL-tgcOK2nUE8y-FlKeYoHI6MccS-rdQ/s1134/IMG_20230127_145156%20crop.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="914" data-original-width="1134" height="323" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgPzWxZETShAbchkRQcAdjhWB68iV8sgvfp12BlQiBDEMCcQ5O0UkpaDspftdeokEnfOJEHbBbTvM4rwneu-JJrThmI99aoFgYTjyMhp9XJkhhC1rqW46rcW7WHUEZcoXdWf6ZFbiZGDVUvOYKOs-VL-tgcOK2nUE8y-FlKeYoHI6MccS-rdQ/w400-h323/IMG_20230127_145156%20crop.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Porridge breakfast and supplement water out in rare winter sun, last week.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Last year, I did a tiny reddit poll study via r/ADHDandCFS. The <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CFSplusADHD/comments/svq5v7/poll_results_comparison_indicates_adhd_may_skew/" target="_blank">results seemed to show</a> that we neurodivergents have a higher chance to slide into this disease state gradually. As I apparently did, over many years. Compared to the more common (though not as ubiquitous as I thought) sudden onset after infection(s) and/or acute trauma. From talk in the online community, that includes autism too. And there's strong links to connective tissue issues, too, like EDS (Ehlers-Danlos Syndrome).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Finally, I've been casually watching videos, plus interacting with social media content (and game community contacts) about <b>autism</b>. I've had no brutally impactful issues related to this. At least, less obviously so than a couple officially diagnosed real life friends, and very many peers and online friends and contacts in which it's obvious; engineering and gaming communities super-concentrate neurodivergants, it seems. But I keep seeing more and more points of fit with my experiences (from sensory issues to social anxieties to <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1614684002534973440" target="_blank">semi-demi-sexuality</a>, etc). So I'm at the point where I'm just about comfortable <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1620851335477460992" target="_blank">describing myself</a> as <b>AuDHD</b>. And I guess gifted too. Or once gifted...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq4kjNHgdz_E6U7y9iduHN-iy6jK_nclqY77oXKGDIlCkPQ5o2mk81FdmgxVYvK8PCFkrNs6W15AatGahALMHLZyCJ_RPZPPnvxlCBUweOdMs1XqPamI3nKKFHMbmdGUHFmzKX_HeUn0dH_m18ayeL3CLGQzGdSzs7Jgzb2exgQsS_NP4VIw/s1127/d6mf6184wnl91.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1127" data-original-width="1125" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq4kjNHgdz_E6U7y9iduHN-iy6jK_nclqY77oXKGDIlCkPQ5o2mk81FdmgxVYvK8PCFkrNs6W15AatGahALMHLZyCJ_RPZPPnvxlCBUweOdMs1XqPamI3nKKFHMbmdGUHFmzKX_HeUn0dH_m18ayeL3CLGQzGdSzs7Jgzb2exgQsS_NP4VIw/w638-h640/d6mf6184wnl91.jpg" width="638" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-30366600465597712732022-10-18T07:02:00.004+01:002022-10-23T12:07:04.990+01:00"Cyberpunk: Edgerunners" series review <p>As someone naïve to the Cyberpunk universe, I found the Edgerunners series to be a colourful and interesting pastiche of various anime influences, with some flaws [<i>SPOILERS</i>]...</p><p><b>David </b>- the school age male central protagonist, generic fan demographic foil. Who finds that he's exceptionally gifted, through no effort of his own. Thus he's able to realise his daydream ambitions.</p><p><b>Lucy </b>- Motoko Kusanagi (Ghost in the Shell) hacker chick in an outfit mixing together that from Stand Alone Complex and 2045 series. Her distinctive hair design has a (Serial Experiments) Lain lopsided bang on her left and is coloured white like Benten (pretty boy) in Cyber City Oedo 808. She also has a built-in version of the nanowire weapon he uses, which I believe originates from Gibson's Neuromancer (sci-fi novel). </p><p><b>Maine </b>- Duke Nukem meets Prototype JACK (Tekken) substitute father figure. He comes complete with paternal physical abuse and a hard nosed (but soft on the inside) butch lady-friend second in command - <b>Dorio</b>.</p><p><b>Pilar </b>- actual transhuman-looking non-normative body plan cyber punk with super-hands. He fashion a visor and mohawk like Gogou (Cyber City). The abrasive clown, he's naturally the first to go.</p><p><b>Rebecca </b>- the fiery Lolli archetype, literally obligatory in all anime, now (studio refused to make the show without her). Predictably she's romantically interested in our generic protagonist, though we thankfully fall short of a full hareem. She's not particularly problematic, compared to some, and makes sense in this context. Actually she's a fairly fun character, although her Scooby Doo impression gets tiring towards the end.</p><p><b>Kiwi </b>- chain smoking albino cyber-goth second fiddle hacker chick, with a more extruded frame. Like Lucy, she inexplicably *<i>has</i>* do her virtual reality ICE (Intrusion Countermeasures Electronics - again Neuromancer) breaking shenanigans with full frontal nudity, in a bath of icy water. Big "<i>Hey, I don't make the rules!</i>" feel, male gaze fanservice.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJNct6QIoPhfRwtFW6vbNgbCcPonhIOrrxFU8Vl4C6-kdbWdeMAWEo-xNz0SurirT7Nn85zjV1a57461Tg5UW4AOxtsiCgWaEavBye1SqOBYzhu9py1Egim8Uzt4YNCOP265AgQR_9yjoUg55Eo7JVBzupnGLgI4OZCn8OooJ-Pa4Cv6xNWg/s2560/Cyberpunk%20Edgerunners%20crew.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1440" data-original-width="2560" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJNct6QIoPhfRwtFW6vbNgbCcPonhIOrrxFU8Vl4C6-kdbWdeMAWEo-xNz0SurirT7Nn85zjV1a57461Tg5UW4AOxtsiCgWaEavBye1SqOBYzhu9py1Egim8Uzt4YNCOP265AgQR_9yjoUg55Eo7JVBzupnGLgI4OZCn8OooJ-Pa4Cv6xNWg/w640-h360/Cyberpunk%20Edgerunners%20crew.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><b><div><b><br /></b></div>Falco </b>- Overwatch's <strike>McCree</strike> Cassidy Cole, complete with one robot arm and the same voice (Matthew Mercer), randomly turns up half way through, as a getaway driver.<div><br /></div><div><b>Faraday </b>- the ominously voiced middle-man with the triple eye, reminded me of something I couldn't put my finer on... Some 90s arcade game villain, or something.</div><div><br /><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">► Other notable influences: </span></b></div><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Blade runner - city design, flying cars/billboards, chain smoking, etc.</li><li>Akira - motorbike gangs, neon style, ultra-violence, etc.</li><li>District 9 - mech's weapon grabbing magnets hands.</li><li>Blues Brothers - style car pile-up super-orgy.</li><li>Various games - including Cyberpunk (duh), with nonsense red circle impact warnings inexplicable appearing on the ground, with one fight. </li></ul><div><b><span style="font-size: medium;">► Overview and Critique:</span></b></div><div><p></p><p>Part of the reason I've not been possessed to jump into the Cyberpunk PC game (besides the price and brutal hardware spec requirements) is the <b>dystopian </b>setting. Which is a failure as escapism, given how many aspects of this genre are becoming increasingly, depressingly, relevant here in the UK. </p><p>Our Tory governments seem determined to break the public provision of <b>healthcare</b>, by any means, whatever the death toll and permanent damage. They even seem to be trying to privatise democracy and governance, itself, via sneaky charter city legislation (massively expanding freeport areas and such). </p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>Edgerunners starts out with viewer's blank slate character protagonist in a fancy <b>private school</b>, which his single milf (implausibly young looking) is working overly hard to afford for her golden boy. The circumstances make me wonder if her death turned out to be no coincidence... </p><p>But I think that it was, to (a) set protagonist in motion and (b) really rub our noses in how callous the provision of top-notch medical care is, allocated only to premium customers. Then how precarious every aspect of their lives are, without money - apartment immediately locked out. Decent bit of world building. </p><p>Protagonist getting bullied by top-flight exec's son, discretely packing the latest upgrade toys, again, rubs in the hopeless inequality. This is one of 4 implausibly rough beatings our protagonist's body takes within our first day or so of following him. I was expecting bully to perhaps return, after the revenge beating, powered up. But he became a nobody.</p><p>The series starts to hit its stride around episode 3, with the crew pulled together. But it immediately losses that strut, as we get caught up in the protracted arcs of the main cast self-destructing. Then the plot casting around a bit, not quite able to do everything it might have liked to. </p><p>I'm not sure it was ever made fully clear what "<i>edge running</i>" is supposed to be about? Is it surfing the cutting edge of bodily cybernetic enhancements? Specifically in the context of mercenary gang-warfare? David starts out as a voyeurist-junkie, watching murder-orgy VR recordings for fun. But then we return to those as a torture and that's the worst case scenario for all the heavily enhanced. Namely...</p><p><b>Cyber-psychosis</b> - is *<i>the</i>* all-encompassing technological hazard, in this world. Ridiculously one-size fits all puerile nonsense, in its portrayal. Its psychological break is pre-shadowed heavily by ticks and depicted, when it hits, by crazy-eye animations. It is supposedly mediated through the immune system, which rings faintly of how real world conceptions of the genesis of various 'mental' illnesses. </p><p>However, the immediacy of onset, and the use of industrial cleaning product sized quantities of what are supposed to be immune suppressants, is comically silly. Drugs that thoroughly wipe out (various arms of) the immune system already exist. And taking <i>more</i> in a tug of war with the provocation is dumb. But the huge quantities of deadly violence not enough; our main male characters need a way to spiral into oblivion. Drawn down a rabbit-hole of excessive modifications like moths to an inevitable fiery death. </p><p>I guess over-simplifying makes sense for TV. But it's a shame we don't get to explore any sociological or moral hazards, beyond the axioms of the setting. It ends up as mostly a romp with tragedy dialled in from the start.</p><p><b>Impossible physics</b> - the "san devestan", as a spinal implant, somehow coaxes the baseline human body it's installed in, to move as fast as The Flash (DC comics) or Quicksilver (X-Men). Something that might kinda make sense in a game, where the rest of the world is slowed. But is clearly impossible as shown, massively exceeding the strength and structural integrity of organic matter. Also falling faster than gravity. And taken to greater anime extremes as things progress.</p><p><b>Lucy - </b>should probably have been the central character. She does seem to become so, for a short while: her sub-plot develops some world history about how their internet was split apart by a cataclysmic hack. But then she spends the later half of the show mostly moping about in the background. </p><p>She has a briefly promising stint taking out some corporate related hacker, or other, like a badass. I'm not sure it was properly explained. But then she gets suckered like a fool, and (literally) dangled as a helpless wench, to be saved by our powered-up protagonist. Who wins the game of who gets to self-sacrifice in saving whom.</p><p>Her characterisation is somewhat all over the place, in general: initially cautious, she has a manic pixie maniac-girl moment, steering a gurney-strapped David down a busy highway using only her ass in the air. Also takes on various rando gang members with just her garrotte. But later becomes a cowering wee girly to be saved when bullets start flying. Maybe she has some PTSD kicking in selectively...</p><p>For a while, I flirted with the idea that they might do something bold, like reveal that she was <b>transgender </b>(and have him still love her). You know, actually take this self-modification thing to a logical conclusion. But alas. All characters appear to be cis and hetro-normative. A little dull, these days; even 1990s Cyber City Oedo had a lady-boy!</p><p>For all the <b>sexualisation</b>, of the female form (far less the males), and men with public masturbation attachments, there's no <i>romantic</i> sex. Well, it's implied to have occurred. The VR date scene (on the Moon) does ring true, romantic in Zoomer kinda of way, that's cute. The couple laid fully clothed on the bed next to each other, without physical contact. Kind of poignant.</p><p>Of course this restraint is contrasted with the ubiquitous joyous explosions of <b>blood, gore, general violence</b> and inexplicably unmedicated and implausible surgical procedures. Pretty standard. The more subtle, psychological incidences of violence get a little troubling, in the margins, as cyber-psychosis takes Maine, in particular. Like a metaphor for alcoholism/drug abuse causing men to hurt those close to them..?</p><p>It involves a dementia-like forgetting of the present, transporting their conscious attention elsewhere, while their over-powered bodies become *<i>psychopathic</i>* killing machines. "<i>Psycho</i>" conflating that with <i>psychosis.</i> Which is quite different. But neither condition necessarily homicidal, in real life. Psychopaths commonly day-dream detailed acts of violence that some plan and execute.</p><p>There's off-world travel via city launched rockets, much like Space-X promotional material, always in the background. But there's no world building of life off-Earth, beyond Moon tourism. Or of anything outside of the one sprawling city, beyond the rusting forests of wind turbines infesting the desert surrounding it.</p><p>► <b>Verdict:</b></p><p>Edgerunners certainly works as a stand alone series. It's colourful and unique enough to be worth a viewing. Its retro-futurist influences make it appear to be targeted at fans of 90s anime in this Cyberpunk genre. Those 30-40 year old males, like me. With obvious appeal to younger viewers not put-off by mediocre level (relatively sanitised) 'gritty' cartoon violence with a splash of soft-porn and gaming tropes.</p></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-32450739573328496332022-06-19T07:10:00.006+01:002022-06-19T21:37:24.046+01:00"Ra" by qntm - Book Review<p><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qUCzrCUdprtv-6myFtAzPitQUFXr7-O8Z1g23WwWB4FGx06FumryxJrUwfS7TrTNRThb-TPhMr7FcTiwLTjD849j4VAwvcUbHI3Xxj9a2zpcyNc3LioBNG9ysILFWo4TgSrQbXIXqMsLQKjtPejNUoYHT9n5AR1DmE1B2tylJmfD3_aiVg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><img alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="313" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg4qUCzrCUdprtv-6myFtAzPitQUFXr7-O8Z1g23WwWB4FGx06FumryxJrUwfS7TrTNRThb-TPhMr7FcTiwLTjD849j4VAwvcUbHI3Xxj9a2zpcyNc3LioBNG9ysILFWo4TgSrQbXIXqMsLQKjtPejNUoYHT9n5AR1DmE1B2tylJmfD3_aiVg=w250-h400" width="250" /></span></a></div><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">I enjoyed this book. It had immediate personal relevance, kicking off in my old-university city of Nottingham! In the 90s, a little while before the time I was there studying physics. With its central female protagonist called Laura <span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">(weirdly also the name of a girlfriend I had there)</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; white-space: pre-wrap;">, i</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">ts brief summary of her mundanely relatable romance spoke truth to me, too. Anyway...</span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></span></p><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"Ra" initially presents as a kind of alternate history, where magic exists as a new kind of science. Only recently taught to undergraduates, in either applied or theoretical courses. Described as esoteric and remote, for the majority of the population. Much like quantum physics in the real world. In both cases, they've been <i>quietly </i>revolutionary for civilisation. </span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Our protagonist makes the exception to this, with ostentatious, hyper-competent implementation of its possibilities. Magic is cast by speaking a kind of programmer pseudo-code, with an ancient Samarian (or some such) flavour. While simultaneously holding complex concepts in mind.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It's no coincidence there's an echo of "<i>The Laundry Files</i>" mathematical demonology, here; qntm has clearly been strongly influenced by several of my favourite sci-fi authors, including Charles Stross, who's tweet put me onto them in the first place.</span></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">In this work, qntm feels especially like Stross's protégé. Where qntm's first novel, "<i>There is No Anti-memetics Department</i>", </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">which I also enjoyed</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; white-space: pre-wrap;">, had a more haunted feel, thematically reminiscent of one aspect of Alastair Reynold's "<i>Redemption Ark</i>". Both have very high concept plots, focused on narrative development.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It iterates further in a similar direction to Stross, with a hard sci-fi feel that discretely sets aside a little more physical realism to enable slicker exploration of slightly more extreme concepts. Sometimes assuming (correctly here) that the reader is already familiar with ultra-future-tech concepts. Which are thrown in, at some points, without slowing down for detailed explanation.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">The relative weaknesses of Stross's writing are also further exemplified. With qntm fielding barely adequate characterisations and dialogue that is occasionally strained slightly beyond their writing competence. At points of rapid narrative inflection, particularly. But, with near-aphantasia, I'm no fan of lengthy descriptions, and so can forgive these weaknesses.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">The action scenes helped maintain my attention, too. One felt especially anime and fun, as the scope of the world expands and power use escalates rapidly. But I was a little disappointed that no scenes after that quite matched it, for me.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The pacing did feel bogged down in the mid-section, where I struggled a little. It felt like there may have been some bloat that a good editor could have cut away. It's a long book, twice the size of their first work. Perhaps that's why there was an increasing repetition of bits and pieces (a pet peeve of mine), to remind the reader what had happened earlier?</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Maybe it should have been cut into two books. Certainly, the narrative takes a big twist in perspective, half way through, pretty much hopping sci-fi genres. Possibly making it hard to market, without enormous spoilers.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Our initial protagonist's twin sister, Natalie, takes a much more central role later on. The reserved, cautious scientist, to Laura's wizz-bang practitioning. There's a definite contrasting of the scientist verses engineer/inventor approach to problem solving. Which I also appreciated, have studied systems engineering, after physics, so noticed the more gung-ho, try it and see, attitude.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I couldn't help but feel the sisters represented different aspects of the author's own cognition and personality. Specifically, Laura fits more with ADHD (impatient, impulsive, dynamic, emotional) vs the Natalie's more typical ASD (socially distant, masking, abstract core values, over-planning, etc). Both high functioning, high IQ, of course. Perhaps this is me projecting, but I think the shoe may fit us both.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Overall, I definitely recommend this book. And I'm now moving onto qntm's next work, "<i>Fine Structure Constant</i>".</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Super-mega-SPOILER specific criticisms:</b>
The '<i>nonlocality</i>' hyper-technology, that ultimately enables the lesser magic we first see, is basically space magic itself. But I take this as an acceptable axiom.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">What's less believable is that all of humanity apparently chose to remain constrained to live within this solar system, on myriad identical Earths, for thousands of years. Until the conflagration. It's a tritely neat story setting, which I'd more expect from a blockbuster movie. But again: axiom.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This setting and history is laid out with somewhat threadbare exposition. Literally saying it was much more complex than that, but hand-waving that away without the writing flair to leave a whiff of hidden depth.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This is presented in an encounter with a future/historical woman who turns out to be our protagonists' mother. But there's no emotional, physical or characteristic connection between her and the mother they knew growing up. Maybe because both have such shallow portrayals. Arguably, this may also reflect Natalie's non-neurotypical perspective, in particular.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The narrative explicitly grapples with the difficulty of telling a tale of solar-system transforming technology, much like Stross's Accelerando. Contriving to follow base human characters, who are relatable for readers. But who would have outliers; an outsider perspective, compared to the majority of conscious persons, entities, i.e. inside the mega-computer's simulated environments. (Except they may be inside, <i>too</i>.) </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Speaking of which, it glossed over the destruction and use of planets <i>other </i>than Earth, for the Matryoshka brain. A kind of Earth-first equivalent of American movie domestic setting myopia. I guess, *<i>if</i>* humans are only on the Earths, then those are the targets to be eliminated with most prejudice. To avoid fightback. </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But it all felt like stick-figure diagrams, compared to events in Rajeneimi's more flavourful, imaginative, detailed and technically impressive Quantum Thief trilogy. Who's plot doesn't technically reach as high an energy budget as here, on the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale" target="_blank">Kardashev scale</a>.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The recursion that's written into the story arc is kinda cute. Such that it's canonical that (some of) the protagonists are explicitly aware that they can't tell if they are in the first (real) iteration of events, or a simulated repetition that would naturally follow. A good old bit of mind-fuckery.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It felt wrong (impossible) that the victorious 200 meat-space humans were able to rebuild the entire solar system to an 10'000 year earlier state. Even with this non-locality space-magic. That supposedly didn't break physical laws, like the speed of light. I feel like it would have broken laws of entropy, though I guess they could have just taken mass-energy from the sun, unnoticed.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Rebuilding an entire 1970s Earth full of billions of individual humans, from algorithms, is surely anathema to their entire cause, of real humanity...? Having the whole edifice supposedly being indefinitely resistant to any scientific scrutiny, despite being littered with nano-probes that read human thought, to translate it into magical actions... Hmm. It's all a bit of space opera fun, I guess. Not being so rigid with the "hard" aspect of the sci-fi to stifle nimble exploration of super-normal intellectual stimuli, for geeks like myself.</span></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-48941798990530603682022-05-10T21:46:00.004+01:002022-05-13T20:21:18.282+01:00"Left Hand of Darkness" by Ursula K. Le Guin - A Tepid Review<p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoSGTxFr25NnMnT3HkBdRQ0dlK57DXPGoYSrNiUxbBV_ES-OCysJMhNu2TVA9_Ne9RzcFF-HQ1Gdv6S-xZ37RRNh5hFrrSmrYUhZi_KECPw11OsnCB_ILWYyFEF3hJPG7BvJCj-ym1FJgRJ32NBE6L_M_CWzcblSU7DwZCcXJKqvug46unkg/s475/43373479.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="314" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhoSGTxFr25NnMnT3HkBdRQ0dlK57DXPGoYSrNiUxbBV_ES-OCysJMhNu2TVA9_Ne9RzcFF-HQ1Gdv6S-xZ37RRNh5hFrrSmrYUhZi_KECPw11OsnCB_ILWYyFEF3hJPG7BvJCj-ym1FJgRJ32NBE6L_M_CWzcblSU7DwZCcXJKqvug46unkg/w265-h400/43373479.jpg" width="265" /></a></div><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I picked up this novel because <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ursula_K._Le_Guin" target="_blank">Ursula K Le Guin</a> is often cited as an underappreciated sci-fi master and I've not read anything of hers. I started with Left Hand of Darkness because it was one of the top recommended, e.g. on the <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/" target="_blank">printSF Reddit</a>.</span><div><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: times; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I skipped over the two(!) additional introductions by contemporary authors, for fear of major spoilers I’ve had in the past. In her intro, she states: "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Science fiction is not predictive; it is descriptive.</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" Which is always somewhat true; dressing up contemporary issues in strange clothes to better understand them. </span></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Just as much a fantasy writer, apparently, this perspective makes sense. But not entirely so, to me. No prediction at all, would fly in the face of what I like most about my go-to fiction genre: exploring possible effects of future technological change.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><strike>She also seemed to say there was an unreliable narrator, telling some of this story..? But, even primed, I spotted no contradictory versions of events.</strike></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span>[<strong class="_12FoOEddL7j_RgMQN0SNeU">Edit:</strong> <em class="_7s4syPYtk5hfUIjySXcRE">I don't know where I got this idea from, after re-reading her (1976) foreword. Kindle UK version.</em>]</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">For a book published in 1969, it has largely dodged feeling entirely dated, courtesy of mostly avoiding high technology. The plot is grounded entirely on a somewhat backwards world (or at least, one that’s in no hurry to fully modernise). So the setting is very vaguely reminiscent, for me, of say "Inversions" by Iain M Banks.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Non-plot spoilers</b></span><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); white-space: pre-wrap;"> - In the rare appearance of a spaceship, it does sound like a stereotypically antiquated shiny silver rocket. While their FTL communications are basically a pager. Which, I guess, is still ahead of her time…? They have universally electric vehicles too. (I guess that transition is long overdue, for us.)</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There’s mention of “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">One’s magnetic and directional subsenses</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">” - did we used to think humans might sense magnetic fields as pigeons do? Also, significant time on “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>mindspeech</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">”, “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>telepathic potentiality</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">”, and occult-ish rituals, etc, that strays more towards the fantasy side.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Gender deconstruction</b></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> - is very clearly the core concept pursued. The male protagonist, emissary from the stars (so to speak), is perpetually confounded by this local offshoot of humanity. They are, in his words "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">hermaphroditic neuters</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">", only physically gendered (potentially) for a few days per month, when in heat.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While I imagine this was quite a boundary pushing progressive exploration, at the time, a lot of the specific language used around the topic feels very dated now. Minor example, they use "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">bisexual</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" to describe the (more typical) heterosexual society of two perpetually distinct genders. Which obviously has a very different meaning now. </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">While they all use "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">he</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“, “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">him</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" male pronouns to refer to the native individuals. "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">They/them</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" would, I think, be more likely today. But I guess these are merely superficialities, like the inclusion of many other words that have fallen out of use, these days.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">More substantial, is the way gender attitudes and differences are characterised by our male protagonist. These again, feel dated. But probably that is a testament to the successes of progressive cultural movement, which we now take for granted. Something that this novel may have been a contributor to? And there’s obviously a distinction to be made between the author’s personal views and what a character portrays. Especially when that character is on an arc of discovery (self and other).</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">To be honest, I struggled trying to get into this book. Le Guin seems quite descriptive in her writing. Which is largely lost on me, having aphantasia (almost). My ADHD-PI brain likes plot developments. But much of the story arc was fairly sedate journeying. There's some action here and there, to be fair, though brief and on foot.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There's political intrigue, too. Although more to give a solid insight into the contrasting, opposed proto-nation states of this snowball world (that the non-natives call "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Winter</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"). </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">We start in: "Karhide", a monarchy in partial transition to Prime Ministerial rule. Described as "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">not a nation but a family quarrel</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">". Where the Le Guin muses: “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Total diffusion of rapid communication devices, which is supposed to bring about nationalism almost inevitably, had not done so.</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">” Which is talking of radio, mostly. But might speak equally to a contemporary reader in our age of social media radicalisation.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Then there’s "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Orgoreyn</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">": a rival territory that’s slightly more technologically and economically progressive, though even more militarily passive. It seems to more clearly embody aspects of Soviet Russia. Like secretive party/security elites and severe repression, sending many of the population to bleak work camps, to slowly fade away. With hormonal suppression, etc.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Supposedly neither side has known war, properly (so far). Looking through the book’s mirror, it supposes that war, and its precipitating social behaviour, must stem from half the population being perpetually in-heat males. A biological state seen as perverse and degenerate, here. Which, I guess, is a somewhat valid perspective..? </span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">But (lack of) technological rollout stemming from this disparity, too? This quote wasn't specifically on this topic, but similar seemed previously implied: "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>There was in this attitude something feminine, a refusal of the abstract, the ideal, a submissiveness to the given, which rather displeased me.</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Our male protagonist, "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Genly Ai</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"… I thought beforehand he would be a robot, as in ‘A.I.’, but no… He spends a lot of internal thought processes pondering his misunderstanding of the other main character. Particularly regarding the fictional concept of “</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>shifgrethor</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">” - an elusive not-really honour, kind of thing.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">His counterpart is the enigmatic and aloof but highly capable "</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>Lord Estraven</i></span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">". Whom is the primary subject of our study on non-gendered characteristics. And who's meticulous diary entries account for many chapters of alternative perspective.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Within those there is even more philosophical contemplation. Within an impressively nuanced fictional religious and cultural landscape. There was clearly much influence on the author from Eastern religions. That will presumably have been more novel for readers at the time.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Some quotes that that jumped out at me as possible influences in other fiction I'm familiar with:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-family: times; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><ul style="margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-inline-start: 48px;"><li aria-level="1" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" dir="ltr" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">No rap</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">e" - Iain M Banks Culture universe, with biological gender fluidity, too.</span></span></p></li><li aria-level="1" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" dir="ltr" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">A fire in the deep</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" - very nearly a Vernor Vinge novel title.</span></span></p></li><li aria-level="1" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" dir="ltr" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">"</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Fire and ice</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">" - George RR Martin's Game of Thrones novel(s). The winter theme too.</span></span></p></li><li aria-level="1" data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" dir="ltr" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; list-style-type: disc; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre;"><p dir="ltr" role="presentation" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">“</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: italic; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">all things are in the Center of Time</span><span data-darkreader-inline-bgcolor="" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-bgcolor: transparent; --darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; background-color: transparent; color: black; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">” - A kind of cyclical model of the universe, like Wheel of Time? (Watched, not read.) From discussion of a fictional religion, with foretelling potential.</span></span></p></li></ul><p><span style="font-family: times;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>In summary</b> - I'm glad I read this book, for historical literary context, at least. But, given my struggles with the writing style, the blurring in of fantasy concepts and lack of technologically or socially cutting edge ideas, I doubt I will pick up another </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; white-space: pre-wrap;">book </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; white-space: pre-wrap;">by Le Guin, any time soon.</span></span></p><p><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p class="_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM"><b><span class="_12FoOEddL7j_RgMQN0SNeU">Addendum 2022-05-13</span><span class="_12FoOEddL7j_RgMQN0SNeU">:</span></b> I posted this <span style="font-family: times;">review </span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/unq5rk/a_tepid_review_of_left_hand_of_darkness_by_ursula/" target="_blank">here on the printSF Reddit</a>, where it received a lot of thoughtful replies! Also, a net karma of 0 - i.e. controversial, lol.<span class="_7s4syPYtk5hfUIjySXcRE"> I do feel that I failed
to touch enough on the strengths and interesting insights of the work.
Like, having a pregnant king, and that the favoured line of succession
would logically be via child carried above those merely sired. Hah!</span></p><p><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><p class="_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM"><span class="_7s4syPYtk5hfUIjySXcRE">Largely
it's always too easy to put one's finger precisely upon on concrete
minor detail, that fells a little off, compared with elucidating the
merits of an amorphously complex creative nuance. Despite embodying many
of my dearly held values, more social and emotional depth may be lost
on my non-neurotypical brain than I appreciate.</span></p><p class="_1qeIAgB0cPwnLhDF9XSiJM"><span class="_7s4syPYtk5hfUIjySXcRE">Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context (including on <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_Hand_of_Darkness" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>), I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book was very significant in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc).</span></p><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"e9oqu","text":"Also, having been prompted to look up the cultural context, I more appreciate the love for the book: a bastion of 2nd wave feminism, it was published just before the Stonewall 'riots' (a huge turning point for gay rights in the US), the book's very significance in the LGBT+ community, and had great influence on the whole (sci-fi) literature landscape (spawning speculative fiction, etc)","type":"unstyled","inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":388,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-9338871643707205352022-05-08T22:55:00.010+01:002022-05-11T04:20:35.976+01:00"Raised by Wolves" Seasons 1 & 2 Reviewed<p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Season 1</b> </span></span>[<i>Adapted from <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1520293451434180608" target="_blank">these Tweets</a></i>] <span style="font-family: inherit;">- was more watchable than expected, knowing very little before hand, other than people thinking it a bit odd. I felt it was a decent, slow-burn sci-fi. It definitely has Ridley Scott flavours: grey-blue colour pallet of Prometheus [2012]; various visual details, from android blood down to hats; the horror-spun theme of birthing/raising children, intersecting with brooding alien mysteries.</span></p><p><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjckX2yOEt4KASrOJJhJARzzL7_D7Lvly36WINiBMI8_aL26nojI5tSPzs__2-5_6inoZsCWbE8y7rZAm2sh4OQISfnXfeIIILubaPAv5wurFAvZZGc056jMiBpRW3SEVSGdqw6hTCRcq2ulBYK1jeDjSoTGNhbCw0CsSyizqAGllgmmy5BRw" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="526" data-original-width="944" height="357" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjckX2yOEt4KASrOJJhJARzzL7_D7Lvly36WINiBMI8_aL26nojI5tSPzs__2-5_6inoZsCWbE8y7rZAm2sh4OQISfnXfeIIILubaPAv5wurFAvZZGc056jMiBpRW3SEVSGdqw6hTCRcq2ulBYK1jeDjSoTGNhbCw0CsSyizqAGllgmmy5BRw=w640-h357" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Raised by Wolves was not at all as sci-fi silly/tacky as some of its initial appearances.</td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="css-1dbjc4n"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-1s2bzr4"><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-1blvdjr r-16dba41 r-vrz42v r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__qpg05jxy56h" lang="en"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><span><div class="css-1dbjc4n"><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">There really are some seriously dark themes (trigger warning). Including a teenage girl coming to terms with being coerced into carrying a pregnancy following rape (while unconscious). Then dealing with meeting the perpetrator (whose made theatrically monstrous). Attempted suicide. The grief of loosing several children (pictured right) and self blame for that. Mass murder. Loss of bodily autonomy. Orphan child soldiers. Child abduction, etc. But I guess its all softened the surrealness of a sci-fi setting. Anyway...</span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgi5rzV0eiE87tmnHn3ElzrRZGO6x6v853RsP0M6cPRC_XoG7QC0caGBtrkqW8l7u3fl1aHQQgutfIVmAc2TbVEqo5czRio1BoYJDWfKX_AlteZW-t5mFnS5ArH_54AVo6V7g39wRoV7WjOvamlWf9UVAWNrFr-GHZybzEhfyY2y5OyufHIvA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="510" data-original-width="877" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgi5rzV0eiE87tmnHn3ElzrRZGO6x6v853RsP0M6cPRC_XoG7QC0caGBtrkqW8l7u3fl1aHQQgutfIVmAc2TbVEqo5czRio1BoYJDWfKX_AlteZW-t5mFnS5ArH_54AVo6V7g39wRoV7WjOvamlWf9UVAWNrFr-GHZybzEhfyY2y5OyufHIvA=w640-h374" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Much is lost...</td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The season had enough time to develop its main characters, particularly heroine/antagonist android "Mother". She took an opposed arc to Travis Fimmel, who was apparently reprising his King Ragnar roll (from Vikings). Military genius, usurps power, undergoes religious conversion, hobbles about injured with a staff, etc.</span><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"> <br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Religion is another core theme, with the two squarely opposed factions from Earth: the Mithraic, who worship "Sol", verses the atheists (who are underdogs). This </span>portrayal<span style="font-family: inherit;"> doesn't represent a fair reflection of our real world, for either side. The believers, here, are shown to be superstitious and quick to jump to </span>conclusions <span style="font-family: inherit;">convenient to their believes. </span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en"><span><span style="font-family: inherit;">While the atheists have to content with the fact that big mysterious stuff, beyond their powers, is very clearly happening. For a start, Sol apparently handed the Mithraic their </span>unequalled<span style="font-family: inherit;"> "</span></span><i style="font-family: inherit;">dark light</i><span style="font-family: inherit;">" tech. This is what let them make the necromancers - </span><span><span style="font-family: inherit;">indestructible, </span>identity<span style="font-family: inherit;"> reconfiguring, flying android </span></span>banshees<span style="font-family: inherit;"> of death - which were terrorising Earth. Also, possibly, their interstellar tech? </span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The question really becomes, not whether Sol exists, but what is it and what are its motives? In manipulating humans, by speaking inside some of their heads (i.e. "the signal"), saving some. Setting them against others, in a confusing (possibly confused) series of events.</span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><br /><span style="font-family: inherit;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpCtsbl9gxmDDiu4Dvo7-Kg1c-UGZJ2HmkqYEW8-Ags-RiAOg3kYWEX3RewMPdPt7qk2XJX-gsONRXYp80Z7PerhpWYyb_3vOkPTKUb30B8p1uR9O20vWHu8POkxd-H0NJgGRZi6XxPZKQtBOZcKyqBv895y1EKzWwpUGBBeQpZWwbS5LQ2Q" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="466" data-original-width="800" height="373" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhpCtsbl9gxmDDiu4Dvo7-Kg1c-UGZJ2HmkqYEW8-Ags-RiAOg3kYWEX3RewMPdPt7qk2XJX-gsONRXYp80Z7PerhpWYyb_3vOkPTKUb30B8p1uR9O20vWHu8POkxd-H0NJgGRZi6XxPZKQtBOZcKyqBv895y1EKzWwpUGBBeQpZWwbS5LQ2Q=w640-h373" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The costume design clearly embraces retro-futurism. Both 70s throwback and historical overtones of crusaders, British empire, Knights and armour later, etc. </td></tr></tbody></table></span></div></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__20db4wmdsob" lang="en"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><div class="css-1dbjc4n"><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">The </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">brutally</span><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span><span style="font-family: inherit;">brief, unsettling action scenes looked good & punctuated well the stretch out human narrative focus. Giving an air of realism. There were some largely forgivable liberties with plausibility and the plot flailed around a bit, later on. </span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgYqq39Z0EKLHdKjORnTd6aYBPV22zDa0gWfFPSYxj9gJlgypH9E8OV_QnY_MINH_GMdKsXh78wTy9Gg3B8Sb01c1uSFnpmaTl97Pe6G5mj44sVvyjJxdERG8Fk8d3gXykno4iCdvkLsePjFnrBbU267XfjH9KDhGFnj0ecx-oWK-SBxmWSWQ" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="1034" height="408" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgYqq39Z0EKLHdKjORnTd6aYBPV22zDa0gWfFPSYxj9gJlgypH9E8OV_QnY_MINH_GMdKsXh78wTy9Gg3B8Sb01c1uSFnpmaTl97Pe6G5mj44sVvyjJxdERG8Fk8d3gXykno4iCdvkLsePjFnrBbU267XfjH9KDhGFnj0ecx-oWK-SBxmWSWQ=w640-h408" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Only a brief foray into spaceships; pretty much everything happens planet-side.</td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The world's mysteries were only gradually half paid attention to. One mysterious stranger is just randomly killed, forestalling any answers there. And the concluding action seems like an overly big sacrifice, that turns unexpectedly into merely a translocation of setting.</span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-a023e6 r-16dba41 r-rjixqe r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__ldieri13xds" lang="en" style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Overall, S1 was OK, hence preceding to...</span></div></div><div class="css-1dbjc4n" style="font-family: inherit;"><div aria-label="1 reply, 1 like" class="css-1dbjc4n r-1ta3fxp r-18u37iz r-1wtj0ep r-1s2bzr4 r-1mdbhws" id="id__yr2mi94if8e" role="group"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-18u37iz r-1h0z5md"></div></div></div></span></div></div><div class="css-1dbjc4n" style="font-family: inherit;"><div aria-label="1 reply, 1 like" class="css-1dbjc4n r-1ta3fxp r-18u37iz r-1wtj0ep r-1s2bzr4 r-1mdbhws" id="id__gk3u68zhv5" role="group"><div class="css-1dbjc4n r-18u37iz r-1h0z5md"></div></div></div></span></span></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-1blvdjr r-16dba41 r-vrz42v r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__qpg05jxy56h" lang="en"><br /></div><div class="css-901oao r-18jsvk2 r-37j5jr r-1blvdjr r-16dba41 r-vrz42v r-bcqeeo r-bnwqim r-qvutc0" dir="auto" id="id__qpg05jxy56h" lang="en"><br /></div></div></div><p><span><span><b data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">Season 2</b><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> - expanded in scope verses S1, in many ways. But apparently lacked the time for as deep character </span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">development</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">, or any more flashbacks to post/mid-apocalypse Earth. It lost focus and dramatic tension, then kind of devolved into a mess of stuff going on, with more plot holes/oversights opening up. </span></span></span></span></p><p><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">The SFX budget seemed stretched a little thin in places, particularly around "The Tarantula", but was overall still very high value for a TV show.</span></p><p><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0oRq8976j7ajV_LbjvlA-LX024w11r2w005w4Yy7bB5QpsUNK9ygh6M7guJYnXwvljcqg84_edN4nDRctf73J1wgvhWiR6aWHnXlAPqmyhUTpte6DSfY6W_hG4hGCOsD9Y1PqrtJCUqCMTYL-KVgf3uac3ypYno9dBEoAtISwo8UWntaqRA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="506" data-original-width="940" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi0oRq8976j7ajV_LbjvlA-LX024w11r2w005w4Yy7bB5QpsUNK9ygh6M7guJYnXwvljcqg84_edN4nDRctf73J1wgvhWiR6aWHnXlAPqmyhUTpte6DSfY6W_hG4hGCOsD9Y1PqrtJCUqCMTYL-KVgf3uac3ypYno9dBEoAtISwo8UWntaqRA=w640-h344" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The tanks were ludicrously hopeless, in military terms.</td></tr></tbody></table><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">An immediate </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">irritation was </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">the "acid sea", that instantly dissolves spaceship tech, but doesn't cause any breathing distress humans on the sore.</span><p></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-6c77782a-7fff-a8ea-4cd6-b3291b900b81"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span style="font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"><span><span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Biggest </span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">disappointment</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"> wash the Trust AI., which held interesting promise and looked cool, but its actions were disappointingly portrayed as bluntly brutal & reckless. Supposedly it pulled some military mastermind coup, in stealing an enemy ship to escape Earth with its people. But we only see it alienating many of its minions, like a </span></span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">mediocre</span><span> <span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">sociopath tyrant.<br /></span></span></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"></p><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEioH5upAoxMjt_B8ZIugoe9LHNL-zFU4CK_w5hHdI-YLOoHYw6T2OZpp-kKQMbBjq_E9zAjiqNATV0MaC3ENhQ4FUz0n979xanbvMc_rZHA7Pydzznaibf69vxC-0np24bJp5Z793VVsraZEpsR5MgdQjhW8UtE2JhaCVlco4w60j2x_IhHIg" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="415" data-original-width="830" height="160" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEioH5upAoxMjt_B8ZIugoe9LHNL-zFU4CK_w5hHdI-YLOoHYw6T2OZpp-kKQMbBjq_E9zAjiqNATV0MaC3ENhQ4FUz0n979xanbvMc_rZHA7Pydzznaibf69vxC-0np24bJp5Z793VVsraZEpsR5MgdQjhW8UtE2JhaCVlco4w60j2x_IhHIg" width="320" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Some continued playing on general<br /> fears of having children.</td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">I guess it had to fail for the plot progress. So it wasn't allowed to shine via superior emotional intelligence and more subtle social manipulations. </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Like the show generally, it feels predicated on classic sci-fi conceptualisation. Big Bother, but with updated bells & whistles. </span></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">Rather than an evolution of the kind of social engineering/manipulations of big data corrupting Brexit vote, 2016 US election, etc.</span><p></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Character wise, they also seemed to act somewhat arbitrarily. For the sake of developing whatever plot thing. </span></span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">I guess there was a lot of flakiness in S1, too.</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">At the extreme, t</span></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">he little girl bot </span><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">crowbarred in like</span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"> Jason X. Going beyond her physical capabilities, and apparent psyche, for the sake of a horror trope. Then that's kind of just set aside.</span></p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">While, in episode 6, Mother stopped existing, anywhere, when all the things needed to go wrong at once. Maybe production/editing issue.</span></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"></span></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_x7u6EFnWcIakURjhI5EUkwtlU9eJpRM4T46wlWgHXJ8_h0dlKvlyYrlpIqRBF2Mku8lTkK4xzIaRwwinClldYggIMMC2TjCln1UHuBv4yAa7eqekqG9MXVJ98btM4GQOPm0G1-99JLIEmbKFZJgqMa79YG9J0n0n6sDq_DQo2j5h2zPmLw" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1253" data-original-width="2429" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEi_x7u6EFnWcIakURjhI5EUkwtlU9eJpRM4T46wlWgHXJ8_h0dlKvlyYrlpIqRBF2Mku8lTkK4xzIaRwwinClldYggIMMC2TjCln1UHuBv4yAa7eqekqG9MXVJ98btM4GQOPm0G1-99JLIEmbKFZJgqMa79YG9J0n0n6sDq_DQo2j5h2zPmLw=w640-h330" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Niamh Algar was very likeable in both seasons. SOme of the kids, not so much, perhaps. This scene kinda begged the question of why there's not more drones being used in this fictional universe..? </td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit;">And the big plot stuff feels like it throwing in random mystical/unsettling ingredients from all over: from (anti-)Christian imagery and monster movie elements, to an Anime space tentacle moment with a feel of Neon Genesis Evangelion.</span></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">So, at this point, I'm not so sure there's a definitive plot arc resolution in mind. Maybe it's doing a bit of a Lost [2004]. But I guess I'd watch a S3, to see if it gets even more silly.</span></p></span>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-60484783836377564172022-05-07T16:16:00.002+01:002022-05-07T16:16:08.855+01:00"Kaiju Preservation Society" by John Scalzi - Review<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEia5k4_yzNrtXs-I_ms43uyFdEgREyRMktKmWTZ-nqZF_-4AonIYNLsmbWJLhHu9VgmHmsKrk_1nQaHLx6YntUKbkgStqQyLHSzLx1F-709FjcGmO1ttu4f2OFPxEfuo--IlrV2yV-KOKjjeTclCqG9D351luGO6_doP4eWotBSZ_CG3tWHZg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="410" data-original-width="255" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEia5k4_yzNrtXs-I_ms43uyFdEgREyRMktKmWTZ-nqZF_-4AonIYNLsmbWJLhHu9VgmHmsKrk_1nQaHLx6YntUKbkgStqQyLHSzLx1F-709FjcGmO1ttu4f2OFPxEfuo--IlrV2yV-KOKjjeTclCqG9D351luGO6_doP4eWotBSZ_CG3tWHZg=w199-h320" width="199" /></a></div><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">An impulse buy, for me, when needing a new book to read on my Kindle. Kaiju Preservation Society is a quick, easy to read sci-fi novel by John Scalzi. I'd agree with his post-script, that it's the literary equivalent of a pop song.<br /></span><p></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-18d78d5b-7fff-7cf3-a76c-1755f5eae971"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It currently feels extra relevant, kicking off at the start of the Covid pandemic, in New York. Our protagonist's working for an UberEats competitor, seeing an uptick in demand. And there's an explicit reference to the opening of the genre cult classic "Snow Crash". Which comes up again as a bit of a running joke. So too, a couple more pop sci-fi references.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The story soon escapes miserable reality. I thought, at first, that we were going to taken on an interesting deconstruction of monster movie tropes. Focusing on more realist management banalities and such. But it only goes half way…</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">On one hand: the crew studying (and aiming to protect) the giant monsters are, realistically, almost all scientists with a complementary array of doctorates. They run through why such massive animals are physically impossible. Then proffer some bio-eco-physio-logical embellishments that might help realise this trope.</span></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">On the other hand: the author couldn't resist throwing our protagonist straight into an unreasonable amount of close-call monster action. With excessive reliance on wizz-shwoop-nee-ooow-ca-boom helicopter antics.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Our protagonist appears to be a blatant foil for the target reader demographic: male millennial sci-fi nerd. He's apparently done his English masters dissertation on the topic. So it's a little conspicuous that he gets crowbarred into this situation. More so that he has as much influence as he does.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The main antagonist is a fairly standard super-rich sociopath. Kind of too conveniently behaved, in a way. But with with some insightful characterises that ring true, also. While the Scooby gang are ethnically and gender diverse. All good and fine.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So, overall, this book is an adequate diversion from reality, with a few laughs and chuckles.</span></p></span>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-34713755960028197382022-05-06T17:37:00.003+01:002024-01-18T23:20:32.988+00:00Why "Matrix Resurrections" is so terrible...<p><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">This new Matrix film is less a resurrection, more intellectual property necrophilia. It doesn't just break the fourth wall, it bursts through the screen and slaps you around the face with franchise merchandise! While a boardroom montage gibbers about how mind blowing a 4th instalment would need to be...</span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-r2B8CLDiRcpf4GbyTyzYCtl8dllyfNWEu6sc9-va-jdoyoWsKzJFq5QVw-2kDz449uLSQ2CK3_yCk0M8SWJem5uQCjGfL_uZ4lbTu6cIjWIaaUw63XJrAWjU7we7Q8Wr96Qg6UhgEQRD4ehkVEQ6C9hYiIx_r3J9hjADbn84mH7gL8ZvGA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="784" data-original-width="689" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEg-r2B8CLDiRcpf4GbyTyzYCtl8dllyfNWEu6sc9-va-jdoyoWsKzJFq5QVw-2kDz449uLSQ2CK3_yCk0M8SWJem5uQCjGfL_uZ4lbTu6cIjWIaaUw63XJrAWjU7we7Q8Wr96Qg6UhgEQRD4ehkVEQ6C9hYiIx_r3J9hjADbn84mH7gL8ZvGA=w351-h400" width="351" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">I'm gonna stop you right there; don't watch this!</td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">My expectations were very low; movie sequels selling out is par for course, and Revolutions was already a disappointment. But this new piece had failed to recapture any of the magic.</span><p></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-5dcb6d7d-7fff-a28f-0f23-71f27669aa2a"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">A major reason the first film seemed so creative is the Wachowski's cobbled it together from a lot of pieces of other great sci-fi works, which most views won't have known: anime, e.g. Ghost in the Shell (1995) lent much cyberpunk look and feel, with small sequences recreated shot-for-shot.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">A shocking amount of concepts, plot arc and specific terms (e.g. "<i>Matrix</i>" and "<i>Squidies</i>") came from Dan Simmon's 1989 novel "<i>Hyperion</i>" and its sequel "<i>Fall of Hyperion</i>". Which I read recently and think still stands up OK today. Recommended, for historical genre significance.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">But in Resurrections, they seem to be feeding, ouroboros-like, exclusively on their *own* works. Thematically, the result is mediocre fan fiction, vomiting up clips of the original's more memorable (and more inspired) bits.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">The cinematography is uninspired and generally not up to as high standard (budget constraints?): some wobbly close up shots and general lack of mood. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">Sound track is bland orchestral, plus a very clichéd use of "<i>White Rabbit</i>" by Jefferson Airplane.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">The action choreography seems lazy, jumbled and generic. Carrie-Anne Moss retains some gravitas, while dodging the latex (and much screen time). But Keanu's acting is laid bare, at times, bless him.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">The overall effect is of a theatrical stage adaptation, playing up to the most well known bits that the director thinks everyone will recognise. Red and blue pills get wiped out every 5 minutes, through the mid-section. And there's literally a scene on a theatre stage:</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBxaJKvhb_ba1UN5jwpGkRWuXR6iuWCnShtvxK-deTI1pZx1wdzOtugNTqHR5AacsMq9pkXTadPRffdAMmqe9-9DzHrBMYc7IXfibgfMEy9JQZZwGJ2ABa-iNQm-WlFO6XTJqr0cC_m6cOz7DdZJ3jnHttdCCzganqG0pomhFuGtYgvOcNuw" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="998" height="336" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgBxaJKvhb_ba1UN5jwpGkRWuXR6iuWCnShtvxK-deTI1pZx1wdzOtugNTqHR5AacsMq9pkXTadPRffdAMmqe9-9DzHrBMYc7IXfibgfMEy9JQZZwGJ2ABa-iNQm-WlFO6XTJqr0cC_m6cOz7DdZJ3jnHttdCCzganqG0pomhFuGtYgvOcNuw=w640-h336" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"<i>There is no forth wall!</i>"</td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">To be fair, this project only finally went ahead, after decades of pressure from Warner Brother's, because Lana Wachowski lost several close family members [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Matrix_Resurrections#Pre-production" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. She wanted to retain her movie character creations, at least. Which may also explain the 5 (five!) actors from her <i>Sense 8</i> series [I reviewed S1 <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2015/06/on-sense8-quick-review-and-discussion.html" target="_blank">here</a>]</span><span style="font-size: 11pt;"> being crowbarred </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">into major roles, feeling out of place. At least 3 more were in cameo roles [<a href="https://www.thisisbarry.com/movie/sense8-cast-and-easter-eggs-in-the-matrix-resurrections/" target="_blank">ThisIsBarry</a>].</span></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">But we don't know why Lawrence Fishburne and Hugo Weaving were omitted from the line-up. Instead, we get some random tech-bro kid, as (supposedly) Agent Smith. Whose purpose, motivation and capabilities seem entirely at a loose end. </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">A younger Morpheus makes for a gender reversed twist on female characters being replaced by younger models, I guess.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">The new big bad is [<b>spoilers</b>] Barney "<i>It's going to be LEGEN….. wait for it…. DARY!</i>" from <i>How I Met your Mother</i>. Also Dr Dougie Houser and Dr Horrible, to be fair to Neil Patrick Harris. His character is a, not exactly intimidating shrink. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">His superpower is, inexplicably… wait for it… "<i>bullet time</i>". Which, as the term used to refer to a cinematic production feature (in the original), doesn't make any sense to include explicitly within the dialogue here. Where the excuse for all the blatant nostalgia clips is that they're part of a game Mr Anderson's created. So the last act somehow manages to break the forth wall more than the first!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">The Merovingian's reappearance is the most shambolic, though. Seemingly thrown in to make up numbers for a random tussle, with entirely uncharacterised minions. He stands there in over-done homeless man rags yelling incoherently like some Monty Python bit, without the humour.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHBm2atklUzVKvcfq7T8tDukSTNXpQXpVZ5oOmlymbsGRIjtbGsmzq-2fU9YSJrJyGN9iCPYgJi_xyXFnPfiP6MEW939IkxzhHauPRLZhb3-w4ky8jgukmChzaBQvcLevDA1v06ce3DvhXOCS1iN6sQsUohhls3Rqw-y6jDYykMWq5aElnrg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="761" height="309" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgHBm2atklUzVKvcfq7T8tDukSTNXpQXpVZ5oOmlymbsGRIjtbGsmzq-2fU9YSJrJyGN9iCPYgJi_xyXFnPfiP6MEW939IkxzhHauPRLZhb3-w4ky8jgukmChzaBQvcLevDA1v06ce3DvhXOCS1iN6sQsUohhls3Rqw-y6jDYykMWq5aElnrg=w640-h309" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Bug, played by Jessica Yu-Li Henwick, was arguably the central protagonist. For me, also the only original feeling aspect, played with at least some poise. Sequoia (in the background) was a walking glasshole-looking operator hologram, who's main role seemed to be ridiculing, with his existence, the risk (of brain death) taken by crew diving into the Matrix to do recognisance.</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">What I, as a viewer after the original trilogy, might have been interested in seeing explored, is some more depth into the machine civilization. But, of course, there never really was any. </span></span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">Here, we only get passing mention of a physical war between two internal factions. Friendly machine-world characters only turn up to help progress the plot, with absent or shakily convenient motives.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">Zion's just been magically replaced with a similar looking new city, which they've been better at hiding this time, honest. We don't see anything of its people, either, beyond the top brass. There's no time to dwell there, plot bouncing us straight back out, like it's trying to cover an entire trilogy arc.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">After some unnecessary, out of character violence from an inexplicably powered up Trinity, the ending concludes basically the same as the first movie: promising that everything will change within the matrix. Whatever.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">The franchise never really moved past the nonsense of its axiom: human bodies as batteries. And this instalment made even less sense of Neo as "the anomaly". Instead of being part of some abstruse psychological control mechanism, it conflates his kung-fu-super-hacker skills with power generation. When he's housed within some silly, new, "anomaleum". With his love interest, who is… wait for it… now just as powerful as him within the Matrix!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">Why is that? Feminism, I guess? Because Trinity had no plot arc, beyond owning a motorcycle making workshop (like Keano in real life, tehe lol!) and never liking the name Trish. The scene of her flying, to save Neo's ass, is painfully transparent wire-work. That would have really brought the cringe, if I'd had any left.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #2f3031; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline;">So, in conclusion: only sit sown with this movie for a hate watch. Or if you enjoy comically bad flicks.</span></p></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span></span>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-8077670836225116302022-03-07T20:52:00.010+00:002022-03-08T04:45:00.546+00:00Deathloop - Full PC Game Critical Review<p><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>In Summary:</b> I’d give Deathloop a “<i>maybe</i>” recommendation; I finished it and don't hate it. It’s a laudably innovative game, with mostly great elements: unique fictional setting and aesthetic, great voice acting, polish, interesting combat build variations, etc… But! I <i>REALLY </i>struggled with a couple of core game mechanics, which I’ll explain in more detail further down.</span></p><span id="docs-internal-guid-b6410a32-7fff-40a2-6de4-a50b4be4696a"><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">As someone with ADHD (and slow information processing) these issues prevented me from enjoying the good aspects; Deathloop is far less approachable than either Dishonoured (<a href="https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197971318812/recommended/205100/" target="_blank">1</a>, <a href="https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197971318812/recommended/403640/" target="_blank">2</a>, <a href="https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197971318812/recommended/614570/" target="_blank">3</a>, reviews on Steam) or <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/06/prey-pc-game-review.html" target="_blank">Prey</a> (which I loved). All made by Arkane. Deathloop was hard work to get into, with an overwhelming number of UI screens, clues, loadout settings, etc, to read tutorial notes for and then navigate. Totally breaking the flow, immersion and addictiveness, for me.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Then the unexpected multiplayer element was brave, but in practice just meant getting randomly griefed, as a new player. Unwelcome during an otherwise single player chill-out game. Together, these issues, and other smaller design choices, made it tough to explore different loadout customisations for fun. Or to find much freedom or escapism.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh261PEPwRN1vfDxRkZanS8U0OHvb7j3LA7r4Mjg7DSTefTHAFdTQVADufL7lsJqP7PBcbOWsOJkR3psG9zeKzoegjDgUAM7wz33iTAQFp9ZVWBvUT976QbBDT5yspJ03LK9fozinDaBMe0xUpncDSFTZqFx2dwJOmQUqiQ4NuJgItfE96qjA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="384" data-original-width="1078" height="228" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEh261PEPwRN1vfDxRkZanS8U0OHvb7j3LA7r4Mjg7DSTefTHAFdTQVADufL7lsJqP7PBcbOWsOJkR3psG9zeKzoegjDgUAM7wz33iTAQFp9ZVWBvUT976QbBDT5yspJ03LK9fozinDaBMe0xUpncDSFTZqFx2dwJOmQUqiQ4NuJgItfE96qjA=w640-h228" width="640" /></a></div></span><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>(1) Less accessible:</b> </span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The previous Arkane games quickly launch into the action and almost immediately begin to flow. While Deathloop felt like being taught an overly complex board game for hours on end.<span></span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">There seemed like an unending supply of menus and sub-menus, different loading screens and game mechanics to understand and use. Written explanations popped up overlaid atop the menus, looking kinda ugly and a little confusing. The game does an OK job of stringing all this out over time. But the result was that I didn’t feel like the game actually got going until I was about 7 hours in!</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The maze of tabs: discoveries, clues, visionary leads, arsenal leads, documents, etc, to wade through and keep in mind (plus people and place names and symbols) when trying to figure out where (and when!) to go next… And to recall when picking things back up next day… I’m sure many will take all this in their stride, but it was *work* for me. Very daunting for a story game.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTsSaz2mQRvQt8i70nQAAMaBnHIKGP5Spf8HjzTFl4XHwu2_QBvTauS88eZjOkQFN_AxKH6uVeD7hIkZLlAStpP8cKjfGT3k2SIrumr0_xMCJJ5upHFZEtMV2e4RBj__LoJ2dfpffcySDcw84FIXpNXnCUsTD-o7PZiLZmvGV2GfqzJ0x_fA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTsSaz2mQRvQt8i70nQAAMaBnHIKGP5Spf8HjzTFl4XHwu2_QBvTauS88eZjOkQFN_AxKH6uVeD7hIkZLlAStpP8cKjfGT3k2SIrumr0_xMCJJ5upHFZEtMV2e4RBj__LoJ2dfpffcySDcw84FIXpNXnCUsTD-o7PZiLZmvGV2GfqzJ0x_fA=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Sooo many screens, every new one with a mini-tutorial to read!</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); font-size: 11pt;">The loadout menu layout could have been more condensed, too: e.g. you can’t discard, or infuse your accumulated guns from the menus where you equip them, only from the separate “Infuse” menu, which feels like a duplicate. Then there’s no easy way to discard the many duplicate character trinkets you pick up later on, or even easily see which are duplicates. And the weapon trinkets can’t be sorted by function, so it’s a chore to hunt down through a random list to see if there’s another spare to avoid having to unequip one from another weapon, etc.</span></span><p></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>(2) Constrained creativity:</b></span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The gameplay action is basically Dishonoured + Prey with a load more gun options. But unlike those games, you can only equip 2 of your powers and 3 of your weapons, selected before entering a map.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I felt trapped with a fairly obvious selection of slab powers, passive trinket buffs and weapons. What I’d picked up quite early seemed like either the most powerful options, or just annoyingly inconvenient to ditch. I always wanted “Shift” for mobility and removing double jump felt wrong, like a missing limb. Survivability/healing buffs felt necessary to avoid getting chipped down or burst too fast. Then the super-shotgun for blasting the steam of attackers as they come through the door, after inevitably cocking up, aggro-ing a whole area.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaZI9EDX5g_OixDFY70ZN9nnNEody521Cx0f5aiNHc5txjtK6oTto-7ki14fxJUznfcigls-8v87FBS-nBoCV9OJb1bZAd9laBETln2JY7-1BcF6MiEh0VGqrWXc19DH1V6z9au5mPyqpc9EPs1E3fJJliqSGQUl_4acD1qniPhZB_hoZTwA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgaZI9EDX5g_OixDFY70ZN9nnNEody521Cx0f5aiNHc5txjtK6oTto-7ki14fxJUznfcigls-8v87FBS-nBoCV9OJb1bZAd9laBETln2JY7-1BcF6MiEh0VGqrWXc19DH1V6z9au5mPyqpc9EPs1E3fJJliqSGQUl_4acD1qniPhZB_hoZTwA=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Got the two best guns in the game early on, now what...?</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); font-size: 11pt;">It took me, perhaps, 30 hours to build up enough good gear to potentially start experimenting properly with fun synergy combinations, anyway. But it was tediously off-putting to try stuff out. There was the overly involved menu system for selecting loadout; the lack of quantitative information on buffs, etc; the time punishment of having to restart an entire loop if the combo doesn’t work out. Or if failing part way through, potentially losing progress and loot from the previous time periods. </span></span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">So I was near the end of the story, ~35 hours in (of 50h total), by the time I really started getting into it. Only enthused after making <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Deathloop/comments/szwta5/what_distinctive_types_of_fun_builds_are_there/" target="_blank">a Reddit thread</a> to ask for suggestions and finding a few fun gimmicks. But nothing more stable and effective than the melee life steal, high survivability build I’d already tired. With what I had…</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I didn’t get the invisibility slab upgrade that made it viable until very late (“Ghost”). And the options for stealth are very limited to start with, too (nail gun and bear hands). When I tired stealthing half way through (for Fia’s bunker), it immediately went wrong, feeling too prone to failure. It seemed like the game wanted you to just shoot everything in the face, anyway, given the all you can eat gun and ammo buffet. Even if the basic enemies tended to lock on and aim really well.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">I didn’t find any solid use for dual wield. Half the guns were just horrible to aim with, verses the often jerky movements of the eternalists, and the more conventional shotgun seemed weaker compared to the “50/50” super-shotgun I took from Charlie, early on. Equipping a second gun means not having a power on right click either. You can with a double-handed weapon, and these have plenty of stopping power, with more sane ammo use and only 1 reload to do. Dual wielding is left/right reversed on the mouse buttons, too. Which I could just *never* get an intuitive handle on.</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>(3) Demotivation:</b></span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Being given, from the start, a good idea of what the story ark is roughly going to involve. That distant marker of having to figure out how to kill all 8 visionaries in one loop. Knowing that made it more like ticking boxes and jumping through hoops, than really discovering the unexpected new shape to things. Combined with being able to travel to all of the maps and times. It felt like having a big Gantt chart laid out before me. </span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLhm2jZuKt8tMMv5NfQ33bI_tepznHo6m_ZyFW8zeHC02aKtQ-h2_EbFXBUOOXfM76BJQIwzNNja4zwvRU6YXPXMoz8tMcCHH00GQwTDgWeDvdJ6Qhlw9D4bFvq6eK6NhPxyO81pufKZm7mRYVEn_Iy7tvYrHkcbEETNS1OH_oP8E4iOQD1w" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgLhm2jZuKt8tMMv5NfQ33bI_tepznHo6m_ZyFW8zeHC02aKtQ-h2_EbFXBUOOXfM76BJQIwzNNja4zwvRU6YXPXMoz8tMcCHH00GQwTDgWeDvdJ6Qhlw9D4bFvq6eK6NhPxyO81pufKZm7mRYVEn_Iy7tvYrHkcbEETNS1OH_oP8E4iOQD1w=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">I see where we're going...</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It felt like relatively little changed with my actions, aside from the prescribed visionary location toggles built into the plot. Like, there’s no moral options, really. Except as a extra-difficult Steam achievement. There are no non-lethal take-downs, just full stealth. But then it doesn’t matter when all your kills get revived at the start of the next loop anyway. I guess that’s the joy of the plot setup, to let players enjoy their guns and gore without feeling like they’re actually a mass murderer..? Shrug.</span><p></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Minor </span><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">[spoiler] </span><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">aside - it's funny how trusting all the eternalists are, about dying, considering they all think it's still the first day of the loop. I mean, they've not experienced anyone resurrected yet, so it's basically indistinguishable from a suicide cult festival.</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span color="var(--darkreader-inline-color)" data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: var(--darkreader-text--darkreader-inline-color); font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Anyway, your main friendly/frenemy banter comes over the radio with Julianna, at the start of each map. Because every character you encounter instantly tries to shoot on sight. So basically there's no getting to know anyone up close, to build rapport. Or even to catch the extra lore tid-bit voice lines the visionaries might shout at you, because I'd usually get the jump on them. Close-up assassination action was pretty smooth, though.</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>(4) Multiplayer BS:</b></span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Immersion in the story campaign, where you “Break the loop” as Colt, was kind of shattered by getting randomly farmed by an expert griefer “<i>Protect[ing] the loop</i>” as Julianna…</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The game made a big point of saying I could disable this seemingly core feature, by simply switching to offline mode. So I did, because why would I choose to subject myself to random bouts of the worst aspects of online gaming, while just chilling in my own little campaign world?</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The AI Julianna is a total idiot the first time you meet, so there’s no preparation for the real thing. And I find it very demotivating having to set the difficultly level in games. It’s like pointing out that the optimal option is always to just not play in the first place.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Having largely avoided promotional materials, I wasn’t expecting online PvP, at all. Starting in, I imagined getting to play both sides as single player, maybe in sequence. But the campaign is Colt only while Julianna only gets to invade other people’s games.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">It’s a bold experiment, within an otherwise single player game, from a studio that’s only made single player games before. The plot works this in in well, in theory [SPOILER!]: it turns out (it took me a long while to be 100% clear on this) that Colt and Julianna are unique in being able to remember many thousands of loops. Hence it makes sense that they would have refined their skills and knowledge to the point were they are uniquely dangerous threats to each other.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-size: 11pt;">But the difficulty cliff is brutal for new Colts (heh, named for a baby horse).</span> Canonically it makes sense to get massacred by Julianna initially. But I didn’t expect it, game play wise. And it’s not fun to start all the way up at the deep end when you are least well equipped for it (gear and knowledge).</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">The problem is, I think, that only the determined, experienced Julianna players stick with it at all. So all the human Julianna’s are ridiculously good. My first came out of nowhere, immediately immobilised me in mid-air with fully upgraded Karnesis and 3 shot me with a shotgun. 3 times in a row, ending my loop abruptly. Making me rage quit...</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxPtTkfEtgwlSWiepI4-E63PKw2RXgJuoQJbheYJuVinJRO-4__XjMdUObS7QkStfHVBLI0rh_IjJ8VzZDacJxwyOD96AhVYWxyoLCmW81QfmxpMwwRI9nyOmx-OmytqEjNzWKOvstNnjsAXvtnWE2xHwvx77N6eD1xY0RzsmUB0p-XgjH-w" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="724" data-original-width="1361" height="340" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgxPtTkfEtgwlSWiepI4-E63PKw2RXgJuoQJbheYJuVinJRO-4__XjMdUObS7QkStfHVBLI0rh_IjJ8VzZDacJxwyOD96AhVYWxyoLCmW81QfmxpMwwRI9nyOmx-OmytqEjNzWKOvstNnjsAXvtnWE2xHwvx77N6eD1xY0RzsmUB0p-XgjH-w=w640-h340" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Multiplayer interaction was not very interactive; can't even "gg".</span></td></tr></tbody></table><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Yet when *I* tried to play as her, I got the most basic level guns (which can jam up) and 2 slabs that were unusable; the Colt it pit me against was taking out Egor at The Complex, so no eternalist grunts around (that I might have disguised myself as). Not knowing what to expect, I gunned down a distant character who suddenly appeared with human-like movement. But to my dismay I found this was the visionary Colt was hunting. I served it up for him on a plate, only figuring it out as the player turns up and guns me down. I’m not even able to heal, as there’s no items left around.</span><p></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">This miserable failure yielded basically no XP points, so no upgrades, I believe. I’d probably have needed 3 consecutive kills to actually win, too. Screw trying to grind that! Which is, I expect, what most new players think..? Although most won’t screw up as badly as I did! Lol.</span></p><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Maybe if the devs had forced it, I’d have come back and made more effort, as Colt, to try and take out the old pro Julies. In principle you only have to get one kill per loop. But given that they made it optional, screw that. It’s too distracting with all the other information and considerations to deal with. I would also have felt the need to have a safe loadout specialised only to deal with human Juliannas. Until I’d killed her. But *then* not want to take any chances thereafter having won a free rest-of-the-loop.</span></p><br /><br /><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>(5) Conclusion:</b></span><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">Maybe you don’t find any of my experiences off-putting. Great! Absolutely go enjoy this game. Great studio and interesting product here. The ending options are pretty underwhelming too, though. Definitely not worth replaying the whole thing, not even the final loop, well, not for the alternate ending(s) alone. Maybe the devs are setting things up for a sequel or expansion? I’m not sure how they’d work that, though...</span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black; font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOJzBw8ozU83YG84gFjlGo6wbtAi4AqBBdr0K4KUjTdOt03KALx7ejKt7B0GwqZo_SYdA-ApS0Mb_1JC6bdTj-ixlrwhy5EffHKadH7E9hLXre1kQFeWzH5UMHFP_Wl9Z3QUmB5gUOCEryeUURlXEjMSN7dcsmzEKG0eQtRfRL8wWV4az9Uw" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1920" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhOJzBw8ozU83YG84gFjlGo6wbtAi4AqBBdr0K4KUjTdOt03KALx7ejKt7B0GwqZo_SYdA-ApS0Mb_1JC6bdTj-ixlrwhy5EffHKadH7E9hLXre1kQFeWzH5UMHFP_Wl9Z3QUmB5gUOCEryeUURlXEjMSN7dcsmzEKG0eQtRfRL8wWV4az9Uw=w640-h360" width="640" /></a></span></div><p></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-27307545516425188552022-02-13T14:45:00.012+00:002022-02-13T17:59:30.655+00:00"The Relentless Moon" by Mary Robinette Kowal (Lady Astronaut Universe Book 3)<p>Like books one and two, which <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-calculating-stars-fated-sky-by-mary.html" target="_blank">I reviewed here</a>, Kowal has very well written characters, with good narrative structure and pace. So "<i>The Relentless Moon</i>" is an easy reading page turner. Even though it's not my typical cup of tea: it <i>is </i>rigorously well researched hard sci-fi, but relatively low concept, big picture wise. <br /></p><p>Set in an alternative 1960s where severe climates change, caused by a large asteroid a decade hence, is spurring a much more ambitious manned (and womanned!) space exploration and colonisation program. To escape the inevitable runaway greenhouse effect.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHf_DSNvXAcbnlGJ1BPX2vs7ZaCKjwcnhfz-vlUyexG7x6h7VrOO9QNn6Q3e7heALnfpl1hEf_ixLaMTDCd16ywxZw4EmKHY5WE6tj1HLxGVeg6UDqpgqJ0-9ZbqOTAXMhEP_GOaxlcIm3IE7P9GlnF3s9iB74-8D5ClNk6cxaHANMsHzsQA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="475" data-original-width="310" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjHf_DSNvXAcbnlGJ1BPX2vs7ZaCKjwcnhfz-vlUyexG7x6h7VrOO9QNn6Q3e7heALnfpl1hEf_ixLaMTDCd16ywxZw4EmKHY5WE6tj1HLxGVeg6UDqpgqJ0-9ZbqOTAXMhEP_GOaxlcIm3IE7P9GlnF3s9iB74-8D5ClNk6cxaHANMsHzsQA=w262-h400" width="262" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54347806-the-relentless-moon" target="_blank">Goodreads</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>We ride inside the mind of Nicole Wargin, while our previous protagonist, Elmer York, is on her way to Mars; this is a spin-off plot, running in parallel to the second half of book 2. We met Wargin before: one of the first batch of (lady) astronauts. The wife of a senator, who is now angling to run for president of the US.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a>There's a slightly lighter reprise of dealing with sexist (and racist) discrimination. While, in place of York's anxiety, Wargin's personal psychological struggle is with anorexia nervosa. Which is unique and very cool, to see an extremely smart and powerful woman, in her 50s too, battling a mundane issue which affects many women. Along with "Earth First" dastardly plots. This book is more of a <i>mystery </i>thriller. Spy vs spy, almost. With the camaraderie of some close friends, too, becoming a bit of a Scooby gang.<p></p><p>It was nice to explore life, and different challenges, in the lunar colony. There's much attention to detail, in the mechanics of how all the systems work, as well as subtleties of human behaviour. However, as I said in my last review, it very cleanly glosses over the impossibility of the huge lunar base structures. There's not really any info on how those were launched there, or how they are planning to expand them. There's no encounters with regolith moving equipment or even how they are refuelling their "busy bees" for commuting half way around the moon. We don't go inside any of the other bases, or deal with why they are so far apart. They're struggling just to exist and get people up and down from the moon.</p><p>There <i>is </i>very good suspension of disbelief, despite the contextual impossibilities, if you can set them aside. But, throughout reading this book, I was wondering if it was going to take a major U-turn; would the protagonist start to come around to the view of the Earth Firsters? Mass extra-terrestrial colonisation being proved infeasible.</p><p>I mean, there's no way they launch millions of people to live sustainably off-Earth. Let alone billions. Before semiconductors are even in everyday use! But we never err from the axiomatic assertion that Earth is definitely doomed, though conveniently liveable for a couple more decades. So I guess they've got to try anyway...</p><p>At least it does touch on major political discontent: the younger generations, in particular, who expect to have literally no future to look forwards to. Which, like the theme of climate change, mirrors our contemporary outlook: millennials saddled with debt and zoomers not even getting a look-in. But its treatment feels naïve, in that Senator Wargin succeeds by simply listening to complaints and taking notes. </p><p>Then again, with the epilogue, I felt <i>that</i> turn of events was a nicely hopeful touch to end with (you'll know what I mean if you've read it). But it rang false, verses the tumultuous (post-truth) times we've been going through in the reality of the last 6 years or so (in US and UK).</p><p>Another majorly timely parallel was the part played in this book by polio. But this topic was apparently purely coincidence; according to Kowal's author notes, she finished writing this book before the pandemic hit. As with our Covid situation, a lack of (some) vaccinations prove pivotal. </p><p>The books describe the often lifelong paralysis kicking in days *after* typical acute infection, which is most commonly asymptomatic or mild. I'd hope this should come as a splash of cold water, for readers in Western countries, where we are now pushing through with essentially allowing everyone to become infected with Covid and it's uncertain long term health burdens...</p><p>Poliomyelitis, apparently, only moves from gut to nervous system in about 0.5% of cases [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. So maybe Kowal overdoes it it in the book, with the number of characters hospitalised with paralysis, unable to walk, etc. Certainly fluky with which characters are hit, specifically. Then there's post-polio syndrome [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-polio_syndrome" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], which can apparently kick in 15-30 years after recovering from an initial paralytic attack, or even in those who only had <i>mild </i>initial infections.</p><p>Much like <a href="https://me-pedia.org/wiki/Myalgic_encephalomyelitis" target="_blank">Myalgic Encephalomyelitis</a> (ME/CFS), which occurs following around 10% of infections from various viruses, including EBV (glandular fever). "<i>Long Covid</i>" occurs following 10% of all infections, including mild ones. With at least half of those looking exactly like ME/CFS; new, often crippling neurological conditions kicking in as lungs, etc, recover from acute symptoms. Then, given SARS-COV-2 also enters the brain, etc, there seems likely to be new long term problems we don't know about yet...</p><p>Anyway, a very minor criticism of the book: As a dyslexic, I wish she'd spelled out the coded message in one of the letters, rather than purely leaving it to the reader to tease out of the prose; a tricky cognitive chore for me. Though maybe fun for most, being given the respect to work out what was said.<br /><br />So overall, a solid book. I'm not disappointed I read it. Perhaps this series would make a good bridge for readers curious to cross over, either way, between regular fiction and sci-fi. Although, personally, I'm not very motivated to pick up (soon to be released?) book 4, set on Mars. I think it takes place before the epilogue of this book, if I understand correctly. Which would mean the reader knowing certain outcomes were off the table.</p><p>I can't help feeling that it'd be more worth my time to go back to higher concept novels, like Greg Egan's. Although I have the much vaunted Ursula K. Le Guin up next. Of whom I've read no works.</p><p><b>Psychology addendum:</b></p><p>The original lady astronaut, Elmer York was quite clearly non-neurotypical. An autistic spectrum maths savant with debilitating social anxieties, ticks and self soothing techniques, etc. Wargin explicitly states she's the complete opposite - quite clearly an adept socialite. But she also details herself consciously constructing her personality. AKA masking. So I'm not sure if there's an argument to be made for her being ASD, too? </p><p>Or perhaps, is she half way to sociopathy? “ASPD”, formally. With barely suppressed Machiavellian ambitions. She does mention her (Swiss) finishing school, where proper female composure was drilled into her. So maybe she had the kind of private boarding school education, with adverse social conditions, which has shaped so many Tory (right wing UK) politicians, and other boys club elites, into narcissists and sociopaths. (Our current PM, Boris Johnson, being a prime example.)</p><p>There’s far fewer women diagnosed with ASPD. Though perhaps the contrast is more a reflection of societal expectations shaping girls away from violence, rather than neurological differences. With ASD, we know that’s massively under-diagnosed in females, because it looks superficially different. Two completely different diagnosis, btw, for all the shared letters. Which is why I wonder what, exactly, Kowal’s portrayal of Nicole Wargin is aiming for? And if it’s insightful.</p><p>Either way, Wargin’s husband says of her, endearingly, that she only truly likes a dozen people in the world. Likening her to a cat (our fluffy little psychopath babies). But she’s a devoted monogamist, compassionate about issues that don’t affect her or family directly (e.g. racism and the continued existence of all humanity). She seems genuinely empathetic, often selfless and feels guilt, etc. </p><p>So, I don’t know. I’m probably reading too much into it, based on topics of (fairly recent) interest to me. I wonder if the author has spoken explicitly about any of this...?</p><p>The main supporting male characters, Kenneth Wargin and Eugene Lindholm, are interesting in that, like Nathaniel York, they are bastions of virtuous men. All of them revere their wives and would never harm them physically, or psychologically, if they can avoid it. Good role models for male readers and perhaps setting the bar for what all women should aspire to?</p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-43989832265110845672022-02-12T13:12:00.005+00:002022-02-12T14:11:10.399+00:00"Y: The Last Man" Season 1 Review [Mild Spoilers]<p>The show blasts through the virus apocalypse part implausibly fast: a single day in the first episode. But that's fine, to quickly establish the show's axiomatic question: what if all the men in the world suddenly die?! </p><p>... Except for one privileged slacker and his capuchin monkey. Which is perhaps a link to "<i>Outbreak</i>" [1995] which also featured a capuchin. "<i>12 Monkeys</i>" [1995] depicted a post viral apocalypse, but doesn't really feature any particular monkey, ironically.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgunySHyIIAnmNvsW-jXf87tq8kyyCaFF_hxa5AgL90jCERcx7UzqqIfIrWUrB1EswIk7e2vMdnHW2_NulrJjdIOWCePT5dbi0nL7noa9Ik2naE3r3A5t1zOVAOKWL0h9pTWjj5QiT7OIQNk7e33oSSITjSO42uxczaPn7llhdbIWQwnMsr_g" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1239" data-original-width="1352" height="586" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgunySHyIIAnmNvsW-jXf87tq8kyyCaFF_hxa5AgL90jCERcx7UzqqIfIrWUrB1EswIk7e2vMdnHW2_NulrJjdIOWCePT5dbi0nL7noa9Ik2naE3r3A5t1zOVAOKWL0h9pTWjj5QiT7OIQNk7e33oSSITjSO42uxczaPn7llhdbIWQwnMsr_g=w640-h586" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[My collage] Y: The Last Man promo material also echoes some visual themes from virus movies.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>Anyway, more specifically, it's everyone with a Y chromosome who dies. So, refreshingly, we see plenty of trans men, including a central character. There's a recurring theme around the flip in how male-presenting individuals are perceived, but new issues for them. Having an overwhelmingly female cast is also fantastic, interesting and pretty much unique. Perhaps on par with "Orange is the New Black"?</p><p>It excels in doing what I loved "<i>The Walking Dead</i>" for: exploring fundamental social psychology, once social niceties and norms get stripped away. But with a focus on varied and opposed <i>female </i>perspectives, feminism and what that can mean to different women. Such ideals get subverted, in one of the scenarios, with anger against men stoked and exploited to control a group. Showing how the fiercest anti-man agenda can be as manipulative and damaging as any patriarchal hegemony.<span></span></p><a name='more'></a><p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjO2xABzna0YfgxFjg_VeSbDdZL5HvInQ2fClDj5TiJrhN_oYQLaPsoHL5Gh2xvuHj_mcrP9OI9QaT-tqVRt8XJ1qTkw1DzgqdBKO4DZHpLNHdBI6W4Sl194Jklvbf06xGNy9I1i2CWe4zvuDUPhi9P-wy-YdcFqj957WeNLQpqLvUIiX6dfA" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="666" data-original-width="1340" height="318" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjO2xABzna0YfgxFjg_VeSbDdZL5HvInQ2fClDj5TiJrhN_oYQLaPsoHL5Gh2xvuHj_mcrP9OI9QaT-tqVRt8XJ1qTkw1DzgqdBKO4DZHpLNHdBI6W4Sl194Jklvbf06xGNy9I1i2CWe4zvuDUPhi9P-wy-YdcFqj957WeNLQpqLvUIiX6dfA=w640-h318" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[My screenshot from the show] Here comes trouble...</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />That there's still violence, unrest and military actions without men around, makes sense. As well as giving action excitement for viewers. But given that women are majorly under-represented in the military and police (which they explore), I'd maybe have liked to see more explicit focus on the job roles that <i>did </i>survive well. E.g. strong female demographics health care. Which we do also see a few instances of, to be fair. <p></p><p>Of course, if power is down, hence internet, telecoms and logistics too, then hospitals aren't going to be worth much for long. There's only second hand mention of situations there. I'm doubtful that mobile phone infrastructure would have died quite so immediately. Again, I guess that's in aid of getting a quick start. The power stations going down is covered a little; a potential engineer only talked to about it by telephone conference, but then we never see the outcome of what happens there.</p><p>I picked up this series after a <a href="https://twitter.com/ohpapillon/status/1479842714707542017" target="_blank">Twitter repl</a>y citing it as an example of fiction dealing with issues of societal collapse stemming from depopulation. <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1479737259058503686" target="_blank">I had posited</a> that Thanos snapping 1/2 the population away (for 5 years) would likely cause far worst than the rubbish we see piling up in the background of "<i>Avengers: Endgame</i>". Many abandoned cities, for a start. But beyond the initial 'adjustment period' calamity, if things stabilised, I'd still expect technological regression, as I said:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKDrwcpHorT0qY_dd4T_zn7afMZxOKpcPoUl75k3usoeNw7iT-P-LwFGhLB8kitPDKNOeBuC_j8-0sNXtQF-cvcKkoeiNfanOC4ChC8cnODOyHj6QqasR5qIl3A1dR5UQFU5tbX-LViaKq6BVG2PSnP7dwiuXcS6sK8kSZAdULvBwQY-_l-g" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="581" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEgKDrwcpHorT0qY_dd4T_zn7afMZxOKpcPoUl75k3usoeNw7iT-P-LwFGhLB8kitPDKNOeBuC_j8-0sNXtQF-cvcKkoeiNfanOC4ChC8cnODOyHj6QqasR5qIl3A1dR5UQFU5tbX-LViaKq6BVG2PSnP7dwiuXcS6sK8kSZAdULvBwQY-_l-g=s16000" /></a></div><br />"Y" is technically only streaming on Disney+ in the UK, FX on Hulu in the US. Very sadly it's reported to have been cancelled before the last episode even aired. Talking about it's long and troubled road to screen adaptation, which <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y:_The_Last_Man_(TV_series)#Development" target="_blank">started in 2005</a>, with the lead male leaving and such. It was originally <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Y:_The_Last_Man" target="_blank">a comic book series</a>, which ran from 2002 to 2008.<p></p><p>Which is interesting, just how different the political landscape was back then, in the Bush Jr presidential era. I'm not sure how much script needed totally overhauling, to make sense post Tea Party, let alone post-Trump; the republican president (who doesn't get much screen time before dying) seemed very tame, sane and competent, by contemporary standards. His one female government member is apparently somewhat more full fat GOP, though.</p><p>They do explore how, in a crisis, there are further social forces tearing at what little order remains. Which has a bit of a spooky echo for the anti-lockdown, anti-mask, anti-vax, etc, movements exacerbating the pandemic troubles, in the the West and US especially. Not to mention insurrection at the capitol a year ago. </p><p>I'm not sure how the politics in this show plays for republican voting audience members... Maybe that was part of the issue with the show being cancelled. I mean, the characters on that side are somewhat limited in number; the remaining establishment ends up being heavily democrat. Given women skew left/progressive at the ballot box and there are generally far fewer female politicians on the right. </p><p>The daughter of the president is isolated, in terms of those remaining in authority roles, though with a lot of extras behind her at one point. She's a sympathetic character, in some ways - personally supportive when it comes to important issues. She's explicitly man loving and focused on the reproductive survival of humanity. As a priority not to be ignored entirely in favour of the immediate demands of the humanitarian crisis. Kinda sensible. Although they have their work cut out for them, given that *<i>all</i>* animals with a Y chromosome are apparently doomed, too. Something that's almost not even mentioned, amid all the human strife; no idea what's been going on on farms, etc. Gonna be pretty grim.</p><p>Anyway. the character arcs are interesting. With son (Yorick) and daughter (Hero), of the female Senator (Jennifer Brown), going their different ways; their personal realities diverging. The journey to explore the science (fiction) behind the virus kind of gets diverted too. Which is fine, as that's not really the point of the show and the intrigue behind Agent 355 isn't the vitally compelling; I was more interested in where the characters were going, than the sci-fi machinations.</p><p>The core characters certainly grow, as those on the road get to know each other. In particular, there's a heart-warming, slow-burning unlikely romance, that I genuinely didn't see coming. So overall, a big recommendation from me (if you can get access to it). Even if we're unlikely to see the plot continued on screen any time soon...</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoX3HunM9WA4BEiXt7dUKpKlkXcdqQjDNdu88_xxS6a-pCkTXr4Ne9_87lr4T-DiF686zl9xfoswyvBcxfL8_J4F1bmhNzNAeAoi9LHMXMaQYt0GiQRcOWM33X1vFGdtZV68QBHilk2Fl2lHWi4jZMLWiN3dN89MWcjVijFS3qE29N0puucQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="1194" height="316" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEhoX3HunM9WA4BEiXt7dUKpKlkXcdqQjDNdu88_xxS6a-pCkTXr4Ne9_87lr4T-DiF686zl9xfoswyvBcxfL8_J4F1bmhNzNAeAoi9LHMXMaQYt0GiQRcOWM33X1vFGdtZV68QBHilk2Fl2lHWi4jZMLWiN3dN89MWcjVijFS3qE29N0puucQ=w640-h316" width="640" /></a></div><p></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-19747052511051916512021-12-27T17:09:00.003+00:002021-12-27T17:10:42.121+00:00"The Wheel of Time" Season 1 Short Review<p> I wanted to mention a few more points that wouldn't fit into my <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1475223952809205768" target="_blank">micro-review tweet</a>...</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcFjn725MGHBFNz6yjnTMq9ti3ZPlkwZq3Am2477dEjgbunO-gwtMLEL_X1Np6K7nVkgduMKvW5Bm_U-W_pu1PfF9KpiaWOr7Mc1y3SWH3Az0kKj5-PQc4OtaDF9tOqUqm6wEu/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1944" data-original-width="2592" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcFjn725MGHBFNz6yjnTMq9ti3ZPlkwZq3Am2477dEjgbunO-gwtMLEL_X1Np6K7nVkgduMKvW5Bm_U-W_pu1PfF9KpiaWOr7Mc1y3SWH3Az0kKj5-PQc4OtaDF9tOqUqm6wEu/w640-h480/2021-12-27+The+Wheel+of+Time+show+logo.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Screenshots from the Amazon Prime TV show for illustration of this review (fair use).</td></tr></tbody></table></p><p>Fantasy is not my cup of tea, so I started watching with fairly low expectations. Friends who'd read the books were enthusiastic, so I checked it out, just in case it's the new Game of Thrones (GoT). It was alright - sufficiently well made to be watchable. Somewhat interesting, if more for it's cultural links.</p><p>It seems like Amazon would certainly like it to be the new GoT. The show logo has a similar feel and the dialogue explicitly talks about a human "dragon" who will "break the wheel". But the character building and human intrigue is more simplistic. </p><p>It is probably better likened to Lord of the Rings (LotR): the magic and monsters have significant visual similarities and are unleashed right from the first episode. So, without the huge budget of those movies, this looks only OK. There's some stilted acting amongst the core cast, coupled with very awkward production in one instance, at least. So, overall, suspension of disbelief is greatly reduced compared with GoT. It's show about magic stuff in a pretty medieval setting.</p><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-kNqwPcZOJLFtT7Is5s2FTKHjyEsGvj5md1abMeNuMti7rzBwuXWHF2ptcj3OnedcvVyKmESKbq6svpztTGIMUDn06q3dJGxx4_uoVqkEbaGIo9DEqasmi6Y6L7_D3SGgOkK6/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1440" data-original-width="2560" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-kNqwPcZOJLFtT7Is5s2FTKHjyEsGvj5md1abMeNuMti7rzBwuXWHF2ptcj3OnedcvVyKmESKbq6svpztTGIMUDn06q3dJGxx4_uoVqkEbaGIo9DEqasmi6Y6L7_D3SGgOkK6/w640-h360/2021-12-27+Aes+Sedi+-+green+blue+red.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><p></p><p>My first episode initial impression was that it was trying to be a feminist take on GoT/LotR. Although I later Googled that Robert Jordan published the first book in 1990 [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wheel_of_Time" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], 6 years before George RR Martin's first in the series. </p><p>Given that these books are some of the best selling fantasy (since LotR), it makes me wonder about their culture influences on other media I've consumed. E.g. if the 4 most prominent colours of "Aes Sedai" groups (red, green, blue, yellow) inspired for the 4 wizards in Magicka (a favourite PC game <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2011/04/magicka-rave-review.html" target="_blank">blogged back here</a>). Apparently these groups are termed "Ajah" and there's actually 7 (or 8) colours <a href="https://wot.fandom.com/wiki/Ajah" target="_blank">in the literature</a> (which I'm trying to avoid digging into ahead of the show, or in general).</p><p>The elemental "channelling" is more obviously similar to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avatar:_The_Last_Airbender" target="_blank">Avatar: the Last Airbender</a>. Magic tendrils are woven through the air with intricate hand gestures, very much like (water) bending. Also, the statement that the (female) Aes Sedai can't see the tendrils of male channelling, made me think of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elfen_Lied" target="_blank">Elfen Lied</a> (anime). They have invisible arm "vectors" as the basis of their telekinesis. I don't know how much of this visual detail is described in the books.</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMWXGaummUxoSm-wcl1URxVtuIjZx6nf74-m2qhvZLWOFa6YWb1GykOSXpd-_DeotVjyFeMG-lvmxMXPAAB6w2e-97zP9D1_zDk1g2U4Ycb_9SJ4MCQ1kD63kxSWXAGNm6zecK/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="1000" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjMWXGaummUxoSm-wcl1URxVtuIjZx6nf74-m2qhvZLWOFa6YWb1GykOSXpd-_DeotVjyFeMG-lvmxMXPAAB6w2e-97zP9D1_zDk1g2U4Ycb_9SJ4MCQ1kD63kxSWXAGNm6zecK/w640-h360/Cropper2021-12-16-04-36-19-9111598+sml.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Anyway, back to feminist themes: right at the beginning of episode one, the tone is set with a rabid man being hunted down like a witch, for channelling magic, by an all female band of Red Aes Sedai zealots. Only women are allowed to become official magic wielders. <p></p><p>So all the Gandalfs are women, effectively. The plot central one being "Moiraine Damodred", played well by by Rosamond Pike (who is also a producer).</p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Then, as the episodes progress, we learn about the </span>nuanced and respectful relationship between these mages and their (usually) male "warder" warriors, who are emotionally bonded to protect and serve them. Cinematographically, there's no female cast nudity, either, but we see some juicy man butt first episode.</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_q7EMbicsfRM_OyTh1YthRwHoBn-e2GfbRHnJvY8Vjj3_MLuks4VLRRXFRLD9r4Ei5disVbwb-tr5Ma6rq39CdN3SqWqEAS9yEXSZK2hlZhrGGNQoabeCHfSpr3z0BQVbJgxx/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="1000" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_q7EMbicsfRM_OyTh1YthRwHoBn-e2GfbRHnJvY8Vjj3_MLuks4VLRRXFRLD9r4Ei5disVbwb-tr5Ma6rq39CdN3SqWqEAS9yEXSZK2hlZhrGGNQoabeCHfSpr3z0BQVbJgxx/w400-h225/Cropper2021-12-11-22-14-34-9279199+crop+sml.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">This is all refreshing enough, and the casting is far from whitewashed, too; there's a full melting pot of skin tones. No technical explanation for this, within their world. But it dovetails with the Eastern religious influences and scenery setting of dramatic vertical cliffs from </span>South Asia. </p><p>Hinduism was apparently Jordan's main influence behind the cyclical history at the core of his take on the common Indian religious concept of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wheel_of_time" target="_blank">wheel of time</a>. The concept that history endlessly repeats itself, through eras or rises and falls, is (I think) bleak. Childish nonsense that fits more easily into a naïve steady-state-society mindset. That's common in most sci-fi works, too, where we usually see space faring humanity, inexplicably stultified. <br /><br />Cyclical history is, of course, anathema to those (like me) who proscribe to <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/p/lewylands-raison-detre-or-unpacking-tag.html" target="_blank">extropian views</a> (of indefinite progress). </p><p>It's essentially the concept of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eternal_return" target="_blank">the eternal return</a>. Something that I always think about being described at a very dangerous idea, by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Tipler" target="_blank">Frank J Tipler</a> in his 1994 "The Physics of Immortality". Where he explains his (Christian) conception of an Omega Point Singularity. He wrote that this cyclical history was central to the Nazi belief system. (Hitler famously appropriating the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swastika" target="_blank">swastika</a> from Eastern traditions.) That, in the absence of open ended progress, one can only strive for perfection within finite constrains. Thus justifying promotion of a master race, etc (I think; not sure if explicit on this specific).</p><p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8SAfhp7Sty4_EN5393xXZxwr2KZi0MnFCFzJkS4aN08SBhvIqupgm_CXkrmzDUJCS6P5-ebCQqtUMrNv94c6x4hfgBeKleYK-fxMpIqide-9MSeyX6rmmigECphAlZseh0Fkf/" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="563" data-original-width="1000" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi8SAfhp7Sty4_EN5393xXZxwr2KZi0MnFCFzJkS4aN08SBhvIqupgm_CXkrmzDUJCS6P5-ebCQqtUMrNv94c6x4hfgBeKleYK-fxMpIqide-9MSeyX6rmmigECphAlZseh0Fkf/w640-h360/Cropper2021-12-26-20-43-44-1642875+sml.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><span style="text-align: center;">Above: A tantalising glimpse of the sci-fi looking past of the Wheel of Time world. Maybe they could work in a rigorous physical basis for all their magic powers, like I hopped GoT might hint towards, but ultimately didn't (or turn out to be set on a ring world, or something space opera-ish).</span></p><p></p><div style="text-align: left;">In summary: I'll certainly watch a season 2 of Wheel of Time. But I don't feel like it'll enjoy sufficient success to televise the entire book series (far longer than GoT). The critical review scores seem reasonable, with <a href="https://www.rottentomatoes.com/tv/the_wheel_of_time/s01" target="_blank">82% on Rotten Tomatoes</a>. The audience impression more tepid, perhaps due to many ardent book fans not seeing their conceptions of the source material being brought to life as they'd expected. But perhaps the books needed (and benefited from) updating [<a href="https://www.polygon.com/22828001/wheel-of-time-gender-one-power" target="_blank">Polygon</a>].</div><p></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-72960090238025801252021-09-16T17:47:00.000+01:002021-09-16T17:47:07.109+01:00Covid-19 (Part 7) - The Battle Over Child Vaccinations and Long Covid (England/UK)<p><b>[</b><i>Written on 2021-08-25 but unable to to finish due to increased ME/CFS impairment. Publishing 2021-09-16 just to have what's done out there, despite still missing most content on some topics.</i><b>]<br /><br />Previous Covid blog posts</b>: <i>Wave 1</i> - March/April 2020: <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-deadly-wake-up-call-to.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a>, <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#more" target="_blank">Part 3</a>; <i>Wave 2</i> - Jan 2021: <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-02-11" target="_blank">Part 4</a>; <i>Wave 3</i> - July/August 2021: <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html" target="_blank">Part 5</a>, <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html" target="_blank">Part 6</a>.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1ji-aDk0JXU/YSWZil5oeVI/AAAAAAABCuU/qFgRdUDelxQikVnc6inl0qqUibIfxh8_ACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-25-02-14-37-6661592.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="705" data-original-width="969" height="466" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-1ji-aDk0JXU/YSWZil5oeVI/AAAAAAABCuU/qFgRdUDelxQikVnc6inl0qqUibIfxh8_ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h466/Cropper2021-08-25-02-14-37-6661592.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.1</b> <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/" target="_blank">data.gov.uk</a>] Current (2021-08-25) UK state of Covid dashboard. (We have heave among the best health information reporting in the world!) Cases and hospitalisations continue to climb at a high level, respectively 25x and 11x the numbers of this time last year [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1426233607786532868" target="_blank">Prof Pagel Twitter</a>]. Despite it being mid-summer, usually the easiest time for our health service. 1st dose percentage recently took a small step backwards, with new eligibility of 16-18s (but little provision yet available, I believe).</td></tr></tbody></table><br />As I worried in my Covid Part 4 "<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-02-11" target="_blank">2021-02-11 point (2)</a>", UK government's pandemic mitigation measures are being stripped away, now that our death rate is greatly diminished by vaccinations. Thankfully, these largely stayed a month or too longer than I expected. So the upsurge has been gradual, since Stage 3 lifting in May, with no further uptick on "Freedom Day" itself (19th July). I analysed the lack of uptick at the end of my part 5 post in sections (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#I" target="_blank">I</a>) and (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#J" target="_blank">J</a>).<p></p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p><br /></p><p><b style="font-size: x-large;">◄A► Factors conspiring to infect *<i>all</i>* children with Covid:</b></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(1)</b> Obviously the <b>Delta variant is far more infectious</b> than previous strains. Viral loads may be ~1000x higher, hitting quicker, with first positive PCR tests <4 days from exposure, verses ~6 days with original strain, from Chinese study [<a href="https://medical.mit.edu/covid-19-updates/2021/07/are-things-different-delta#" target="_blank">MIT Medical</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/LittleGreyRab/status/1430198780830359552" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. This probably makes children better spreaders and more susceptible [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/vaccinate-kids-under-12-delta-covid/619752/?fbclid=IwAR2_I2DC46RQJ1MV2InLkjMxDYhMwmrH6yQfWfDYs8Z5VTM3PJdiSvAj7vo" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>]. Although there's been disagreement between paediatricians either side of the Atlantic, with Brits suggesting that those in the US are being alarmist; the apparent severity purely the product of higher case numbers (in kids). Probably <2% of child Covid cases are hospitalised.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2)</b> With <b>JCVI </b>mysteriously not recommending childhood vaccination [<a href="https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1417160105649483776" target="_blank">Dr Gabriel Scally Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-ministers-decide-against-mass-vaccination-teenagers-telegraph-2021-07-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>], it looks like they and government are effectively aiming to maximise infections in children. Kind of by stealth, but e.g. [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58270098" target="_blank">BBC</a>] is pushing towards idea of infection instead of vaccination. This *<i>might* </i>maximise children's long term immunity to future strains, in conjunction with one booster vaccination dose (see section 4 of my previous <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html#A" target="_blank">part 6 blog</a>). At a major cost to the health of some number of individuals, that is hard to fully quantify now, but I think will be more significant than they admit. I expect vaccines for kids will suddenly become available this Autumn, after a many of unaffected kids have already been infected, too. 1 dose schedule already talked about.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3)</b> There's <b>no spare Pfizer</b> in the UK, given that 21M first doses had already been given, by 11 August [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#summary" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a>], and we've only received our initial order of 40M total doses [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/28/moderna-covid-vaccine-to-be-introduced-in-uk-from-april" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. So, second doses are already over-booked, as things stand. With our second order of 60M doses, made in April [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/apr/28/uk-orders-60m-more-doses-of-pfizer-covid-vaccine-for-booster-jabs" target="_blank">Guardian</a>], due to start arriving in September [<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9521793/Coronavirus-UK-orders-60million-doses-Pfizers-Covid-vaccine.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>]. Presumably after EU's initial 200M dose order completes [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-eu-pfizer-idUKKBN2920V8" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]?</p><p style="text-align: left;">MHRA has also now authorised Moderna for use in 12-17s, as a second option for JCVI to potentially go forward with [<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-regulator-approves-moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-for-12-to-17-year-olds-12383760" target="_blank">Sky News</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1427620726706692102" target="_blank">Prof Devi Sridhar</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(4)</b> UK experts, including (previous talked about) Andrew J Pollard (head of JCVI) are conveniently pushing a narrative that we should <b>spare vaccinating our children to send a few million more doses abroad</b> [<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n1687" target="_blank">BMJ</a>]. Interesting about turn, that convieniently ignores our lack of appropriate doses. And flying in the face of UK Gov's cuts to foreign aid, blocking of paten waivers, virtually nothing delivered to Covax initiative yet, and general "me first!" grabbing of doses from everywhere, so far [<a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1425058352086884353" target="_blank">Deepti Gurdasani Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5)</b> <b>Mitigations removed</b> in schools [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58226678" target="_blank">BBC </a>via <a href="https://twitter.com/Zubhaque/status/1427161929483755520" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]! England is perhaps the <i>only </i>country major country to have returning schools with <i>none </i>of the 3 main interventions to protect kids: vaccinations, mitigations (masks, bubbles, testing, contact isolation for all ages), or low community transmission [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1428726746979999747" target="_blank">Prof Pagel Twitter</a>]. More details in her [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/20/christina-pagel-schools-a-gaping-hole-in-the-english-covid-strategy/" target="_blank">BMJ</a>] blog post.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(6)</b> No significant initiatives to improve <b>ventilation </b>in classrooms, still! A very limited (30 school) trial of air purifiers and UV lights is due to take place in Bradford [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/air-purifiers-uv-uk-schools-covid-b1901313.html" target="_blank">Independent </a>via <a href="https://twitter.com/Metadoc/status/1425794855565996038" target="_blank">Paul Hunter Twitter</a>]. Portable HEPA filter purifiers have been shown to significantly reduce the quantity of sub-micron particles (similar to size of Covid virion) in the air [<a href="https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210611/HEPA-air-purifier-can-significantly-reduce-airborne-COVID-19-particles.aspx" target="_blank">News Medical Life Sciences</a>]. New York schools, for example, have provision to check the ventilation status of all classrooms online in real time [<a href="https://www.schools.nyc.gov/about-us/reports/building-ventilation-status" target="_blank">NYC Department of Education</a>]. While Ireland and Scotland are receiving CO2 monitors [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/08/20/christina-pagel-schools-a-gaping-hole-in-the-english-covid-strategy/" target="_blank">Prof Pagel BMJ</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7)</b> Widely reported ONS study weirdly <b>claims schools weren't hubs of infection</b> [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/covid-19-study-finds-lower-prevalence-in-schools" target="_blank">GovUK </a>via <a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1426233630897152004" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. Unsurprising that it "<i>found that prevalence of the virus was lower in schools in June 2021 than in the autumn term 2020</i>" - June 2021 was right at the start of wave 3, while Autumn 2020 was already very high transmission of wave 2. Study itself on [<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/374/bmj.n2008?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_term=hootsuite&utm_content=sme&utm_campaign=usage" target="_blank">BMJ</a>], with rebuking analysis here [<a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1425812282781573120" target="_blank">Deepti Gurdasani Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8)</b> The Zoe app study, which was widely reported [], greatly underestimated the incidence of Long Covid in kids [].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>()</b> Long Covid </p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>()</b> ME/CFS updated guideline publication paused, due to a few influential psychiatrics getting royal colleges of pysitians, etc, to kick up a fuss, at the last minute. They are undoubtedly determined to avoid losing their careers (over getting cause and treatment provision utterly wrong).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(10)</b> GOV/PHE campaign focusing on people's (supposed inappropriate) anxiety with easing restrictions [<a href="https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1427959735735750657" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], screenshot below. Effectively gaslighting the public, when our continued caution is all that's protecting unvaccinated and vulnerable from even more explosive spread.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /><b>(9)</b> Scare headlines about child vaccination: "<i>Teenage boys are 14 TIMES more likely to suffer rare heart complications from Pfizer</i>" [Daily Mail via <a href="https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1425736280197980162" target="_blank">Kit Yates Twitter</a>].</p><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>◄B►Why we should be protecting kids better:</b></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) approved Pfizer for 12-15s on 4th June 2021 [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-mhra-concludes-positive-safety-profile-for-pfizerbiontech-vaccine-in-12-to-15-year-olds" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a>]. Having "<i>carefully reviewed clinical trial data in children</i>" of that age, finding "<i>benefits of this vaccine outweigh any risk</i>". Extending their approval for 16+ given on 2 Dec 2020 [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-medicines-regulator-gives-approval-for-first-uk-covid-19-vaccine" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a>].</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Independent risk-benefit analysis also contradicts JCVI in greatly favouring vaccination of all adolescents [<a href="https://osf.io/grzma/" target="_blank">OSF Preprints</a>].</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Parents overwhelmingly want their children to be vaccinated against Covid (Fig.0, below).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Zoomers overtook the younger cohort of Millennials on first does uptake, showing higher interest of the young (Fig.0, below).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Children already get a dozen or so vaccinations throughout childhood [e.g. <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/downloads/parent-ver-sch-0-6yrs.pdf" target="_blank">CDC</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1427004567410167820" target="_blank">Peter Kolchinsky Twitter</a>]. Probably this familiarity aids the youthful enthusiasm.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• <b>Long Covid</b> in the young is even part of an NHS video vaccine drive [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58301011" target="_blank">BBC</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1429812018652057608" target="_blank">Kit Yates Twitter</a>]! (Gov also says 1M letters have been sent out, inviting all 16-17s to receive a vaccine, with 360k 1st doses already given, to date.)</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Over half of cases in 6-16s (from a March-November 2020 study of 192 Covid diagnosed children in Italy) had at least 1 symptom for 120 days (~4 months) [<a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisonescalante/2021/08/17/what-parents-need-to-know-about-long-covid-in-children/?sh=613eb4a18ec5" target="_blank">Forbes</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/LauraMiers/status/1429682084998787072" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. With 42% of that subset reporting daily activities being impaired. Tentative indications (from non-professional sources) that vaccination may reduce long-Covid incidence (which is very uncertain, still).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• ME has highest levels of severity in cases with childhood (0-19) onset [<a href="https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1429167778972459014" target="_blank">Hannah Davis Twitter</a>]. So however many cases of Long Covid there are in kids, those failing to recover, becoming ME/CFS, are likely to be the worst impacted. As well as loosing the most years of healthy life, potentially.<br /><br />• ONS </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• NHS boss saying they are already struggling now [], worst than winter, in a way, with pushing to catch up on a ballooning treatment backlog with staff utterly burnt out and this usually the most popular time to take time off (for school holidays).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• RSV and flu are taking off adding increasing additional burden on hospitals [<a href="https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/07/23/why-we-are-preparing-for-a-worst-case-scenario-winter-season/?fbclid=IwAR31hkKs55NAf4GaA4gZrUOl4rMQTWD8QhlvBnxlPx5G3mEThdbwpg3tJFw" target="_blank">Public Health Matters blog, Gov.UK</a>]. They were thoroughly supressed by Covid measures, so population immunity to them has not been topped up (via infections). RSV has an opposite age susceptibility profile to Covid, mostly impacting young kids (especially those under 2 or premature infants). So, in a way, it is more of a direct concern, here. But both will impact paediatric ICU provision, which is even more specialist and limited than adult ICUs. And already near absolute capacity [?].</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Major events 2 weekends ago (music festivals, Premier league football, etc) probably raised transmission [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/experts-dread-rise-covid-cases-24753265" target="_blank">Mirror</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/Zubhaque/status/1426452068932460545" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. A small uptick in case rate increase has since been seen.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Cases in Scotland, where schools already returned, have shot up to record highs (graph below)!</div><p><br /></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nUk-edDbnI0/YRqQ6Y0tGpI/AAAAAAABCho/4thy1wPvO0EhG8YcjDHTlz4fmOlvEa4sACLcBGAsYHQ/E8DQoSsWUAkGi9Y.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="976" data-original-width="1424" height="438" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nUk-edDbnI0/YRqQ6Y0tGpI/AAAAAAABCho/4thy1wPvO0EhG8YcjDHTlz4fmOlvEa4sACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h438/E8DQoSsWUAkGi9Y.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/da6b5d9f-c868-40f4-98ab-9f9656600356" target="_blank">FT</a> 2021-08-05 via <a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1423367338116714499" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] Admittedly, in e.g. US and France, there's been far greater vaccine hesitancy in adults, so more incentive to push ahead with children, sooner, to boost population immunity. </td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rhn_6uT71SE/YRqo6lTbwrI/AAAAAAABCh8/WijsCkW4w6AHZhzBgNRQb4GWM7uBcmybACLcBGAsYHQ/E8r8bSzWUAUbfxl.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="688" data-original-width="896" height="491" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rhn_6uT71SE/YRqo6lTbwrI/AAAAAAABCh8/WijsCkW4w6AHZhzBgNRQb4GWM7uBcmybACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h491/E8r8bSzWUAUbfxl.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1426233624890941442" target="_blank">Professor Pagel Twitter</a> 2021-08-13] Despite blazing ahead on adult vaccinations, UK is way behind with children, verses all comparable countries (that Prof Pagel could find data for - France, Belgium, USA, Italy, Spain, etc).</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AeIUnJi_jKM/YRqQ7rb3wlI/AAAAAAABChs/NqiK2lL6r5MCxhgvEdQRaTd-FLKEf0d_ACLcBGAsYHQ/E8gutRpXEAQdsHG.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="549" data-original-width="700" height="502" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AeIUnJi_jKM/YRqQ7rb3wlI/AAAAAAABChs/NqiK2lL6r5MCxhgvEdQRaTd-FLKEf0d_ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h502/E8gutRpXEAQdsHG.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/covid19schoolsinfectionsurveyengland/round6june2021#parental-views-on-child-vaccination" target="_blank">ONS</a> via Twitter] Strong parental interest in having children vaccinated (UK).</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UqkNu1gyMYU/YR1s0fQfT-I/AAAAAAABCio/XbBFKec4TOEkUEMq5AVtWKXyBsN82ZKJACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-18%2BZoomers%2Bovertake%2Bmillenials.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="601" data-original-width="1093" height="352" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UqkNu1gyMYU/YR1s0fQfT-I/AAAAAAABCio/XbBFKec4TOEkUEMq5AVtWKXyBsN82ZKJACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h352/2021-08-18%2BZoomers%2Bovertake%2Bmillenials.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.0</b> via <a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1426233599293014021" target="_blank">Prof Pagel Twitter</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1426143218027188226" target="_blank">Meagan Kall Twitter</a>] Zoomers (18 to 24 year olds) overtook some millennials (25 to 29) in first dose uptake. An indication that enthusiasm for vaccination is going to be even higher in kids.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-N0Rrs7qlbn0/YSWwxhr0qhI/AAAAAAABCuo/8wqCzdTVK2Q3A3PIPnDA17pkhxBYb3cBACLcBGAsYHQ/E829FouWUAEbIdk.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="792" data-original-width="1024" height="495" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-N0Rrs7qlbn0/YSWwxhr0qhI/AAAAAAABCuo/8wqCzdTVK2Q3A3PIPnDA17pkhxBYb3cBACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h495/E829FouWUAEbIdk.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - CDC<span style="text-align: left;"> via </span><a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1427004567410167820" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">Peter Kolchinsky Twitter</a><span style="text-align: left;">] Childhood vaccine schedule (pre-Covid).</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5ZeaZ5FSPuc/YRq7GF7XcLI/AAAAAAABCiI/KUxvRA3O62MSx8wyfR4Xr821tEB6y7BmwCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-16%2BNHS%2Bofficial%2BCovid%2Bsymptoms%2B%2528inc%2Bchildren%2529.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="1328" height="316" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5ZeaZ5FSPuc/YRq7GF7XcLI/AAAAAAABCiI/KUxvRA3O62MSx8wyfR4Xr821tEB6y7BmwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h316/2021-08-16%2BNHS%2Bofficial%2BCovid%2Bsymptoms%2B%2528inc%2Bchildren%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.0a</b> - <a href="https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/symptoms/" target="_blank">NHS</a>] <span style="text-align: center;">As of 2021-08-25</span>The official symptoms lists <i>still </i>do not mention <i>any </i>of the top 4 symptoms for those vaccinated! These now look more like typical cold/flu symptoms. From the Zoe symptom tracking app [<b>Fig.0b</b> - via <a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1426835198436651011" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]: </div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-_R3XJLjgBeE/YRqo4C3d-qI/AAAAAAABCh4/C79SuPb_WFwvrrrYJKR7_hIbShSSWWVcACLcBGAsYHQ/E80jDLqXEAAUWXy.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="360" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-_R3XJLjgBeE/YRqo4C3d-qI/AAAAAAABCh4/C79SuPb_WFwvrrrYJKR7_hIbShSSWWVcACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/E80jDLqXEAAUWXy.jpg" width="640" /></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0W1RH8MAurQ/YSWWfnUpO8I/AAAAAAABCt4/-4mgyQoR3rMNKQihyYiqaHQDNJv-UVIRwCLcBGAsYHQ/E8k7lmxWUAAG57G.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="733" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0W1RH8MAurQ/YSWWfnUpO8I/AAAAAAABCt4/-4mgyQoR3rMNKQihyYiqaHQDNJv-UVIRwCLcBGAsYHQ/w520-h640/E8k7lmxWUAAG57G.jpg" width="520" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.0</b> - Mail Online via <a href="https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1425736280197980162" target="_blank">Kit Yates Twitter</a>] Relative risk unhelpfully trumpeted. No deaths have been recorded from myocarditis side effects in children, and cases seemed to be resolving OK.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7yFPsWWCOeU/YSWX7U4cDTI/AAAAAAABCuI/PwWRrM4UEs8w7QAe5dfEssrR-mZvbmMbgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-25-02-07-42-8482062.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1032" data-original-width="709" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7yFPsWWCOeU/YSWX7U4cDTI/AAAAAAABCuI/PwWRrM4UEs8w7QAe5dfEssrR-mZvbmMbgCLcBGAsYHQ/w440-h640/Cropper2021-08-25-02-07-42-8482062.jpg" width="440" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1427959735735750657" target="_blank">PHE Twitter</a>] Jumping the gun on pushing public "back to normal".</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yYlAI8fKvbM/YSWn_ugM7gI/AAAAAAABCug/lx8s7hDZgz8it9K85TOYskM8uzblGpGgACLcBGAsYHQ/E9j5GN8X0AIuEOq.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="673" data-original-width="750" height="575" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yYlAI8fKvbM/YSWn_ugM7gI/AAAAAAABCug/lx8s7hDZgz8it9K85TOYskM8uzblGpGgACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h575/E9j5GN8X0AIuEOq.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.0</b> - BBC via <a href="https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1430166772569751552" target="_blank">Kit Yates Twitter</a>] 2021-08-24 Scottish Covid cases soar to a new high as schools return from holidays.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-43245184623059365552021-08-09T10:24:00.042+01:002021-08-19T23:57:56.653+01:00Covid-19 (Part 6) - Calculating UK's Population Immunity to Delta...<p>This post follows on from my <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html" target="_blank">Part 5</a> Covid blog, which enumerated the problems with, and causes of, UK's apparently reckless re-opening. In <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#I" target="_blank">the last section (I)</a>, I'd been examining the apparent downturn in cases, around the time of our "<i>freedom day</i>". It now looks clear that we were really seeing the end of the football peak (with a big pinch of school-kid case isolation, then finishing for summer) - a bonus peak on top of an overall continuing (slow) upwards trend in cases. Which has plateaued for now, probably (until football gatherings and school start up again, within the month!):<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9ncnqbWeRdg/YRDrS1q_C3I/AAAAAAABCU4/xyEi04HEQhkjyPMtVLN77c_QboWu2F6rQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-09%2BOfficial%2BUK%2BCases%2Band%2Bhospital%2Badmissions.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="595" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9ncnqbWeRdg/YRDrS1q_C3I/AAAAAAABCU4/xyEi04HEQhkjyPMtVLN77c_QboWu2F6rQCLcBGAsYHQ/w584-h640/2021-08-09%2BOfficial%2BUK%2BCases%2Band%2Bhospital%2Badmissions.png" width="584" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.1</b> - <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases" target="_blank">GovUK</a>] Official stats show cases steady at ~25k/day, hospital admissions ~700/day.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />The <a href="https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate" target="_blank">official R number</a>, for rate of Covid spread, today is 0.8 to 1.1. I think this is averaged over a time period including some of the brief case drop. So, it looks like R = 1 would be a better approximation of our momentary trajectory. Which is pretty bad, given the high incidence of disease. But fairly ideal for us to take a look and see how far we are from herd immunity (section J, directly below). We're definitely a good way off, because we're at an effective R of ~1, while the population is still being relatively cautious, still a lot of mask use, summer holidays and no football, etc. So we should be able to work out how much of a reduction is coming from these NPIs (non-pharmacological interventions, i.e. stuff other than vaccines). <br /><br />Actual calculations and results in point (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html#6">6</a>). <br /><br /><b>Update 2021-08-14</b>: Summary of the APPG conference call that triggered "<i>herd immunity mythical</i>" headlines, catching the general public up roughly, to what I've concluded here. See (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html#B">B</a>) below.<br /><br /><b>Update 2021-08-19</b>: new and clarified information on vaccine effectiveness, section (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html#C">C</a>).<br /><p></p><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: x-large;">◄A► Calculating Population Immunity (is Hard!):</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>The exact degree of overall immunity is pivotal for calculating the effective R value. So as to accurately modelling and forecasting the rate virus spread (and help decide on the degree of mitigations needed). But there's been a lot of big unknowns for immunity to Delta: (1) how effective is each vaccine; (2) how much of a reduction in transmission is there for infected cases who have also previously been vaccinated; (3) </span>how many people have been previously infected in each age group; (4) how protective is past infection; (5) how much does immunity wane over time, in each case? (6) Working the numbers for an estimate.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Here we're assuming <i>all </i>infections to be contagious cases, and equating the two (as there's not solid data for transmission, specifically). Which might be a significant departure from the reality. E.g. mild cases could be far less contagious, after vaccination, or asymptomatic cases may be going undetected more often, while still being very contagious, etc.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b>(1) Vaccine effectiveness vs Delta</b> - Studies vary significantly, between countries. Probably mostly due to statistical idiosyncrasies of the data sampling, timing and location of outbreaks, etc. But also affected by time since vaccination and the schedule of injections used: UK at 8-12 week delay <i>might </i>have ended up more effective than the recommended 3 weeks, e.g. used in Israel. But in all instances we're seeing a drop in effectiveness against infection with Delta, vs Alpha or original strain. But still very good protection verses hospitalisation (and death).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>Verses infection (from video linked below):</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>• Pfizer BioNTech, 2 doses: 64% - 88% (~80% average). </span>1 dose: 33% - 56% (~45% average).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">• AstraZeneca (Oxford) 2 doses: 60%. 1 dose: 33% - 67% (50% average).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kXEOlCf1ev0/YQsxGGeRymI/AAAAAAABCKQ/s-hiyjU60DIWU6qeclWQ99ntAxzl_muAgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-02%2BVaccine%2527s%2Bprotection%2Bfrom%2BDelta%2B%2525%2BMedCram.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1117" data-original-width="2048" height="350" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kXEOlCf1ev0/YQsxGGeRymI/AAAAAAABCKQ/s-hiyjU60DIWU6qeclWQ99ntAxzl_muAgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h350/2021-08-02%2BVaccine%2527s%2Bprotection%2Bfrom%2BDelta%2B%2525%2BMedCram.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.2.a</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/hXV7i1yxu6c?t=429" target="_blank">MedCram YouTube</a>] Pfizer effectiveness data (from UK, Canada and Israel) all depicted in this graphic on page 19 of the CDC's leaked presentation [<a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8a726408-07bd-46bd-a945-3af0ae2f3c37/note/57c98604-3b54-44f0-8b44-b148d8f75165.#page=19" target="_blank">Washington Post</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1420954154680426498" target="_blank">Hannah Davis, Twitte</a>r]. </td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2whdakCvVtk/YQ_ejUILzmI/AAAAAAABCTo/OjbU64aEDgQAUfaaUI4efziOIjXJTzT2ACLcBGAsYHQ/E8G869lWQAE6inS.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="919" height="412" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2whdakCvVtk/YQ_ejUILzmI/AAAAAAABCTo/OjbU64aEDgQAUfaaUI4efziOIjXJTzT2ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h412/E8G869lWQAE6inS.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.2.b</b> - <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009175/S1328_Vaccine_Effectiveness_table_.pdf" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1423626681936490499/photo/1" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] VEEP (Vaccine Effectiveness Expert Panel) consensus narrative 16 July, updated 4 Aug, gives (somewhat inexplicably) more optimistic figures verses symptomatic infection: Pfizer 2-dose = 85%, 1-dose = 55%; AZ 2-dose = 70%, 1-dose = 45%.</td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><div style="text-align: center;"><br /></div></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>The latest REACT-1 (UK) study </span>[<a href="https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/90800/2/react1_r13_final_preprint_final.pdf" target="_blank">Imperial</a>] saw an apparent drop in (aggregate) vaccine efficacy (VE) from 64% in round 12 (20 May to 7 June) down to 49% in the latest round 13 (24 June to 12 July) [via <a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1423725045617201156" target="_blank">Deepti Gurdasani Twitter</a>]. For two doses.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">However, it should be noted that VE is a relative measure, contrasting incidence between those with and without vaccination, only. This will show a decline as a higher percentage of unvaccinated develop protection from past infection [<a href="https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1422978581253087236" target="_blank">Carl T. Bergstrom Twitter</a>]. ~20% of the UK adult population has infection-specific antibodies. But this is quite likely to be significantly higher in the unvaccinated cohort, because: (i) they skew young, with a higher infection rate (maybe as high as 40%), (ii) less likely to bother getting unvaccinated if you know you'd already been infected (iii) correlation with less diligence about health (and protecting others).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">This illusory effect may be bigger than the actual decline in protection from waning immunity, or vaccine immunity escape mutations in the Covid variant.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mVJ-tZAHQvg/YQ91j0ggxCI/AAAAAAABCSA/NDqIJIRVj-EZsMcLnNUQx2RI_9MgekoEgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-08-07-11-04-8878286.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="333" data-original-width="265" height="240" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mVJ-tZAHQvg/YQ91j0ggxCI/AAAAAAABCSA/NDqIJIRVj-EZsMcLnNUQx2RI_9MgekoEgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-08-07-11-04-8878286.png" width="191" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.3</b> - <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a>] Adults vaccinated as of 2021-08-08. </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b>(2) R</b><b>eduction of</b><b> transmission from breakthrough cases: </b>is a vaccinated person who becomes infected (tests positive) as likely to spread that infection to others as an unvaccinated person?<br /><br />In the most recent PHE report [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009243/Technical_Briefing_20.pdf" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>], the viral loads (amount of virus DNA in swabs used for PCR testing) in vaccinated people with breakthrough infections was just as high as in the unvaccinated cases: 17.8 verses 18.0, respectively. The relevant graph (</span>page 35, Fig.12) is very confusing to interpret, so I've not embedded it: <i>higher </i>"CT" value indicates <i>lower </i>viral load, with more RNA amplification cycles to reach detection. It's also comparing Alpha vs Delta variants, but using weird names for them.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Breakthrough infections may run a shorter duration of infectivity: PCR detectability down from 8.9 to 2.7 days duration [<a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8a726408-07bd-46bd-a945-3af0ae2f3c37/note/57c98604-3b54-44f0-8b44-b148d8f75165.#page=7" target="_blank">CDC presentation page 7</a>, also see page 16 graph <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261295v1.full.pdf" target="_blank">Medrxiv</a>]. However, transmission is most likely early on, in a new case, before symptoms or self isolation [<a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1423729039739600898" target="_blank">Deepti Gurdasani Twitter</a>]. So, overall, we should probably treat breakthrough infections as about equally infectious.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b>(</b></span><b>3) Number of previously infected</b> - People developed Covid-19 antibodies from either infection or vaccination. Infections can be distinguished because the (Pfizer and AZ) vaccines <i>only </i>show the immune system spike proteins. Antibodies to these show up on a Roche S (for "Spike") finger prick serum test. Vaccines don't induce antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein, while those exposed to the virus itself will have them. This second protein structure is also on the virus's outer surface. But it's not as import an antigen to target, because the spike facilitates cell entry. So those testing positive with Roche N will have had infection <i>only</i>. While Roche S detects <i>both </i>infection and/or vaccination.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VNDSfpJWaaM/YQ4Gfl-GreI/AAAAAAABCPQ/3_Zf9Ky9Vs02ZKONlUQDGxCFxThXm0fggCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-07-05-03-46-8726469.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1098" data-original-width="825" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VNDSfpJWaaM/YQ4Gfl-GreI/AAAAAAABCPQ/3_Zf9Ky9Vs02ZKONlUQDGxCFxThXm0fggCLcBGAsYHQ/w480-h640/Cropper2021-08-07-05-03-46-8726469.png" width="480" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.4</b> - PHE week 31 report <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008921/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w31.pdf" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1423347625152110594?utm_source=pocket_mylist" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] Types of antibody (S or N, see above explanation) for different age groups in the UK, over time. We see the rising curves of spike protein anti-bodies in successive age groups, started from the oldest (lower graph). Also, higher levels of immunity from infection in younger age groups. Ultimately almost ~20% in 17-29 year olds, verses ~8% in over 70s. Showing more social contact in young adults and benefit of shielding of the elderly. </td></tr></tbody></table><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>The above agree quite closely with seroprevalence of blood donation samples, showing ~16.4% of these adults had been previously infected. From page 2 of PHE surveillance report week 31 [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1008921/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w31.pdf" target="_blank">Gov.UK</a>].</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b>(4) How protective is past infection?</b> - We could infer that past infections are very highly protective against subsequent infections, given that only ~1% of official cases are reinfections [<a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1419246354224848897" target="_blank">Meaghan Kall Twitter</a>]. This certainly does <i>not </i>mean 99% protection! For a start, we know that official case numbers for the the UK of ~4Mn greatly underestimate the number of actual infections. The anti-body prevalence of 17% </span>(from above) implies at least ~11Mn previous infections. So reinfections could quite plausibly be 2.75 times higher, ~3% or more. Although, access to testing is not random; those who got tested before are more likely to go get tested again, verse those who didn't or couldn't before. So maybe the case undercounting isn't so significant.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Anyway, hypothetically, if past infection gave zero protection, we'd expect to see the same percent of reinfections as there are currently past infections. 4Mn is ~6% of our 66Mn UK population. So if we're only seeing 1% in practice, the odds are being reduced by around 6 fold. Which I think means ~83% effective...? This is <i>extremely </i>approximate for many reasons. However, a February 2021 study (so no Delta) of hospital staff in Oxford, UK, reportedly estimated ~89% protection from reinfection [<a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/10.1056/NEJMoa2034545" target="_blank">NEJM</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Its been reported [<a href="https://www.newsweek.com/covid-survivors-who-dont-get-vaccine-over-twice-likely-get-reinfected-cdc-study-1617079" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>] that a (fairly small) CDC study showed previously infected people were more than twice as likely to get reinfected (in May-June 2021, so Alpha variant) if they didn't get a vaccine afterwards, too. However, previously infected people, topped up with just one vaccine dose showed a "hybrid" immunity stronger than non-infected people with 2 vaccine doses. A Rush University study showed 4 of 29 (~14%) of previously infected people had developed <i>no</i> detectable antibodies at all. Responding the same to vaccination as non-infected. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>This all makes it very clear that past infection is far from 100% protective against transmission, as speculated in E.1 (above)!</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><b>(5) Waning immunity</b> - Protective antibodies kick in about 3 weeks after a first dose of vaccine. They peak 2-3 weeks after the second dose. This small study saw (at 21-41 days) that Pfizer produced about 6 times higher concentration of antibodies than AstraZenica [<a href="https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/vaccine-antibody-levels-start-wane-around-2-3-months" target="_blank">UCL</a>]. Also declining less, to about 1/2 at 70 days, verses 1/6 for AZ. Hence older people with AZ will be more in need of booster shots.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">High levels of serum antibodies are 'neutralising' - they will immediately bind to and block all spread of viral particles between cells in your body. Avoiding symptoms or onwards transmission. Titers (concentration) of this (in blood) are highly predictive of protection against SARS-CVO-2 [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8" target="_blank">Nature</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-4PqpKwLlgQU/YQ9fbOegq_I/AAAAAAABCRg/E7T1w5deLrskNowJdoy0BUHrIJb9ZplwgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-08-05-36-38-6325449.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="781" data-original-width="715" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-4PqpKwLlgQU/YQ9fbOegq_I/AAAAAAABCRg/E7T1w5deLrskNowJdoy0BUHrIJb9ZplwgCLcBGAsYHQ/w587-h640/Cropper2021-08-08-05-36-38-6325449.png" width="587" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.5</b> - <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8/figures/1" target="_blank">Nature, Fig. 1 a</a>] Predictive modelling of the protection of vaccines, relative to "<i>convalescent</i>" (past infection) by looking at the level of neutralising antibodies they each produce in serum. This model slightly overestimates protectiveness of AZ's (ChAdOx1) from their part b graph. But otherwise close, with mRNA vaccines actually more protective (published May 2021, so data is pre-Delta, I think?).</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Antibodies always decline naturally, over time, as the pool of the particular immune B-Cells that are specialised to make their type, dwindle. These B-Cells retain a memory and continue to make anti-bodies at a low level for very many years. Ready to much more quickly ramp up production upon new exposure. Hence ongoing protection against severe illness. Also, B-Cells may travel to lymph nodes where they gain mutations that can enhance their ability to bind viral protein structures more tightly. This process is called "<i>affinity maturation</i>", and is apparently promoted by repeat exposure, as with booster injections [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02158-6" target="_blank">Nature</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>So, it's not surprising to see vaccine's average level of protection against *<i>infection</i>* (and mild illness) fall over time, even without new variants. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>The Israeli health ministry released data showing protection had dropped from 90%, at the start of their vaccination program in December 2020, to about 40% by late June. </span><span>This was reported at beginning of July [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-sees-drop-pfizer-vaccine-protection-against-infections-still-strong-2021-07-05/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]. as </span>a drop from 93% to 64%, from reports in May vs June. By the end of July articles [<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html?recirc=taboolainternal" target="_blank">CNBC</a>] were declaring an even more concerning drop to just 39% effective (more than 1/2 as likely to be infected as the unvaccinated). Which might have implied drastically waning immunity (given Israel were fore-runners in vaccine role-out). And/or Delta escaping immunity more than expected. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">However... As Dvir Aran (Israeli medical data professor) explains [<a href="https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1420059124700700677" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]: It turns out that these drastic numbers were overwhelmingly down to a fluke of the new outbreak's location: in a predominantly elderly population, of an area that was 95% vaccinated. While they were wrongly using the national average rate, closer to ~60%. This really highlights the great difficulties of interpreting observational health data. Since mid-July, with the outbreak spreading more widely through Israel, they've been seeing an increasing separation between vax'd and unvax'd, which has so far raised calculated efficacy back up to 80% (against severe illness):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gOfcLftd5rM/YQ9yCjZdv7I/AAAAAAABCR4/8FWv8XZB0sk5pWjHeGOE63-IViefoMp6wCLcBGAsYHQ/E8OLRI4XMAkgWgW.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="458" data-original-width="839" height="350" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gOfcLftd5rM/YQ9yCjZdv7I/AAAAAAABCR4/8FWv8XZB0sk5pWjHeGOE63-IViefoMp6wCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h350/E8OLRI4XMAkgWgW.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.6</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1424136730597281793" target="_blank">Dvir Aran Twitter</a>] Flukey Israeli Covid incidence, now resolving.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />"Lies, damned lies, and statistics", heh. In trying to work out how much immunity wanes, there's also the confounding factor that virtually all countries vaccinated their elderly population first, so without adjusting for that one would obviously see lower immunity, longer from vaccination, as looking back in time also drastically increases average age. And early vaccinated young adults were often medical staff and workers more highly exposed to infection risk, confounding that [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02158-6" target="_blank">Nature</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Between countries, Israel also used the short (recommended), 3 week interval between doses, which is probably less effective than the UK's improvised 8 week schedule. One thing our authorities actually got right, despite much worry about deviation from the manufacturer's validation trials.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"> So how fast does effective immunity (against symptomatic infection) wane in practice? Including to previous infection...? 🤷♂ I don't know. Even if we assume exponential decay and there's a solid half-life for antibodies, of say, 2-3 months, the threshold for complete neutralisation is going to vary between people and their levels of exposure to the virus. Plus there's T-cell immunity, which is not so easily measured. And non-adaptive, i.e. innate, immunity that varies between people and ages.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html" id="6"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><b>(6) Rough calculation of current average UK immunity</b> - Putting together our figures for the various aspects from above, including <span style="text-align: center;">the more optimistic vaccine effectiveness figures from VEEP (Fig.2.b).</span> With <span style="text-align: center;">vaccine type and dose data taken from page 5 of MHRA's "<i>summary of Yellow Card reporting</i>" up to 28/07/2021 [</span><a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1009452/Coronavirus_vaccine_-_summary_of_Yellow_Card_reporting_28.07.21_Clearedfinal_-_2__002_.pdf" style="text-align: center;" target="_blank">GovUK</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1416666564003352576/photo/1" target="_blank">Twitter</a><span style="text-align: center;">]. I get a reasonable best case total population immunity figure of <b>~63%</b>:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XOYQQPrE6X8/YRJIlt-B9ZI/AAAAAAABCXM/vsHnTX42mA4dwRY5XuhhF40FNRo3IiDVACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-10-10-32-26-0833140.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="858" height="438" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-XOYQQPrE6X8/YRJIlt-B9ZI/AAAAAAABCXM/vsHnTX42mA4dwRY5XuhhF40FNRo3IiDVACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h438/Cropper2021-08-10-10-32-26-0833140.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.7</b> - <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CiuNVsKHGYS2owgIejyBd7UUnnPaWKv-p8XarJ9G3xA/edit?usp=sharing" target="_blank">My Google Sheet</a>] I've not considered boosted hybrid immunity, for those vaccinated *and* previously infected. But it's probably a fairly modest effect, in terms of epidemiology. And I'd guess it would be counterbalanced by waning immunity (which I've also not included). All other stats are the most optimistic I could find. Particularly childhood infections...<br /><br />There there's no major seroprevalence studies in <18 year old age groups. So infection rate in kids is a guestimation: I've used a the 60% "<i>upper bound</i>" number Meaghan Kall (PHE epidemiologist) suggested to me on [<a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1424817833586929666" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. She was a co-author on a small study (2k samples) in March 2021, which found ~33% of urban secondary school pupils had N type antibodies [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.14.21260496v1" target="_blank">MedRxiv</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/ShamezLadhani/status/1421406010103771139" target="_blank">Shamez Ladhani Twiter</a>]. So it's very likely we've passed 40%-50% since then, given the ongoing high infection rate in kids, for the last couple of months.<br /><br />Reasonable worst case population immunity figure I came up with was ~<b>53%</b>. And even if we were to finish up giving all adults, who've had 1st vaccine dose, their 2nd dose too, then (tragically) allow *all* kids to become infected (and assume that's 100% protective against reinfection), then we still only get to ~<b>75%</b>. Meaning that we really need to vax virtually all adults *and* probably have infections in many too (to boost that protection)...</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="text-align: left;">From my first graph (Fig.1) in </span><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#H" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">section H</a><span style="text-align: left;"> of my previous blog post, we can see that we would need 80-90% population immunity to bring Detla's R0 to <1, reducing spread. That's without any NPIs (non pharmaceutical interventions, e.g. case isolation, distancing, masks, etc). Given the possible range of Delta's R0 of 5 to 9.5 (stated in CDC slide, below): </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NrR9gTQMERU/YRJEW_zWPeI/AAAAAAABCXE/P-tV7N9o3_QpslCSL2T7bIc5oOwLO5yFACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-10-10-14-39-7787276.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="863" data-original-width="1315" height="420" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-NrR9gTQMERU/YRJEW_zWPeI/AAAAAAABCXE/P-tV7N9o3_QpslCSL2T7bIc5oOwLO5yFACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h420/Cropper2021-08-10-10-14-39-7787276.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.8</b> - <a href="https://context-cdn.washingtonpost.com/notes/prod/default/documents/8a726408-07bd-46bd-a945-3af0ae2f3c37/note/57c98604-3b54-44f0-8b44-b148d8f75165.#page=15" target="_blank">CDC via NYTimes</a>] Delta variant is way more contagious than all the flu types, common cold, polio, smallpox, etc. But its R0 number is very hard to pin down exactly, given that everywhere has varying NPIs and partial immunities differing across age groups and geographical areas.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RwkFpCV0iIc/YRJCtW8U-jI/AAAAAAABCW8/XJDBqCMs0bYdg5qpDO5_7nhu7F-3PFREACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-10%2BUK%2Beffective%2BR%2Bof%2BDelta%2Bat%2Bcurrent%2Bpopulation%2Bimmunity.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1174" height="392" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RwkFpCV0iIc/YRJCtW8U-jI/AAAAAAABCW8/XJDBqCMs0bYdg5qpDO5_7nhu7F-3PFREACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h392/2021-08-10%2BUK%2Beffective%2BR%2Bof%2BDelta%2Bat%2Bcurrent%2Bpopulation%2Bimmunity.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.9 - </b>My illustration, adapted from a graph on <a href="https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/" target="_blank">CEMB</a>] Taking our somewhat optimistic 63% population immunity figure, Delta's R0 of 5 to 9.5 translates to an <b>effective R value of 1.8 to 3.5</b>. Re must be 1 or below in order for cases to decline (without any NPIs).</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>So, without current mitigations in place (masks, working from home, schools on holiday), we'd be back to the same kind of rate of case increase that we had with the original strain (R0 = 2.4 to 2.6), back before March 2020 lockdowns. If we were only facing the original strain, Re would be <1 and pandemic would be over (thus is the enormous importance of variants).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span>So it looks like our pandemic adapted behaviours are roughly halving Re. Keeping effective R close to 1, for now. But that's going to rise gradually as the population becomes less cautious. And suddenly tick up in with schools and football kicking off again, soon. Amping up our ongoing stealthy <i>herd immunity by infection</i> in kids and youngsters. 😨</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html" id="B"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>◄B► "<i>Herd Immunity Mythical</i>" Headlines:</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">The same day I published my analysis (above), mainstream news [e.g. <a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/covid-19-herd-immunity-is-mythical-and-will-never-be-reached-because-of-delta-variant-says-vaccines-chief-1144145" target="_blank">iNews</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/10/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-from-covid-mythical" target="_blank">Guardian</a>] also picked up on the fact that we can't hit population immunity to Delta (with current vaccines). Quotes from Professor Andrew Pollard were trumpeted, from his answer to MP's questions during an All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) public zoom call [full video on <a href="https://www.pscp.tv/w/1MnGnlMbEVjxO#" target="_blank">Periscope</a>]. Also used by controversial figures, like Robert W Malone [<a href="https://twitter.com/RWMaloneMD/status/1425111218537132033" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] and outright anti-vaxxers, pushing a narrative that vaccines have always been useless and herd immunity a lie, etc.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Pollard is the most heavyweight expert possible: an immunology professor at Oxford Uni, director of the Oxford Vaccine group [<a href="https://www.ovg.ox.ac.uk/team/andrew-pollard" target="_blank">OVG</a>] (that developed the '<i>AstraZeneca vaccine</i>'), previous advisor to WHO, member of SAGE (since 2016) and chairs the JCVI (since 2013). But not the JCVI's Covid-19 committee, due to his involvement with vaccine development [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Pollard_(immunologist)" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0KnViOro7w8/YRgD30IopqI/AAAAAAABChM/5SUHMd7VCtsQ-6I-mCYLSZwHUj1PHRPmgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-14-18-56-36-4357121.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="992" data-original-width="700" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0KnViOro7w8/YRgD30IopqI/AAAAAAABChM/5SUHMd7VCtsQ-6I-mCYLSZwHUj1PHRPmgCLcBGAsYHQ/w451-h640/Cropper2021-08-14-18-56-36-4357121.png" width="451" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.10</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1425086490002997248" target="_blank">Channel 4 News Twitter</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Having watched through the whole APPG video conference (which was very informative, in various ways), these are my notes (off the top of my head, a few days later):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br />• <b>Professor Andrew Pollard</b>: was keen to pivot towards vaccinating the rest of the world. Which is absolutely correct, as a first order approximation to the truth. But equating that with not vaccinating any children in UK was suspect; playing the zero-sum game as a justification; that even a few million doses could immunise a small country somewhere. Hmm. {<i>Update</i>: From his [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/13/covid-boosters-dose-vaccine" target="_blank">Guardian</a>] article, I think he's trying to head off the UK stockpiling most of the extra doses it's ordered, for mass booster shots.}</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">• <b>Professor Paul Hunter</b>: is also very experienced and had some interesting perspective on Corona Viruses becoming endemic. Essentially common colds reinfecting each person (in the UK) about every 4 years, as they slowly mutate. Equating this to our situation with SARS-COV-2, but glossing over the part where this is still an very damaging illness, with no sign of variants moving in the direction of innocuous common colds, yet.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">I think he said the same as Pollard, with regards to UK having no control over new variants. Which is largely true, that we have a small population, compared to the number of bodies, globally, incubating Covid (e.g. India alone where about 15 times our population already had Delta). But talk of his "<i>grandchildren's grandchildren</i>" still getting Covid is total hyperbole! Totally ignoring UK's early 2020 resignation to mass infection (with targeted protection), being shown to be ludicrously unimaginative, when we started rolling out vaccination under 9 months later. There's no way we don't get more game changing vaccine/bio-tech in the next year or so. So short sighted of them.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Hunter also implied, in passing, that Long Covid is either organ damage or psychological! So it sounds like both of these men (and a majority on JCVI) are aligned with the BPS school of (wrong) thought on the cause of ME/CFS and 'Post Viral Fatigue', etc. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">• <b>Professor Devi Sridhar</b>: seems to have the most incisively balanced perspective. Having been zero Covid in since ~April 2020, she's now trying coax the public into cautious resumption of activity [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/10/covid-vaccines-britain-scientific-solution-jabs" target="_blank">Guardian</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1425058014881591296" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. In the Zoom call, she was essentially pointing out the false dichotomy between vaccinating young and boosters for UK's vulnerable, verses sending doses abroad to the majority of the world with little/no vaccination so far. The solutions to that are different (waivers and outward investment, COVAX, etc), with only a relatively small number of extra doses now needed here. mostly Pfzier (or Moderna) which need a cold chain, so developing countries often can't make use of them anyway.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">• <b>Dr Ayoade Alakija</b>: really pleased me, in calling out the jaw dropping hubris of the guys who'd both said there's nothing the UK can do about the advent of new variants, given that we birthed the Alpha (AKA "Kent") variant, here! The globally dominant variant until Delta. She made a whole lot of sense overall, and offered an external perspective on the UK from Africa.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">• <b>Dr Gregg Gonsalves</b>: from New York, did great in really banging the drum, pushing for to waive patents and build up mRNA vaccine production capacity around the world (WHO's initiative, I think).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">•<b> Dr Ruchi Sinha</b>: was irrelevant for most questions, but pointed out that NHS paediatric ICU (part of her remit as consultant paediatric intensivist) provision is being increasingly stretched.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-PlUHPST5Tgo/YRgRQN3484I/AAAAAAABChU/XzCSyXPv-9cH9H4hf6-ecs8JVyWYWMVjgCLcBGAsYHQ/E8gptiCXIAQXgs_.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="1198" height="364" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-PlUHPST5Tgo/YRgRQN3484I/AAAAAAABChU/XzCSyXPv-9cH9H4hf6-ecs8JVyWYWMVjgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h364/E8gptiCXIAQXgs_.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.11</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/JohnBarrettUoN/status/1425436130057543682/photo/1" target="_blank">John Barrett Twitter</a>] It's been pointed out that those advocating for Covid elimination have been vindicated, in a way. The Alpha variant is effectively gone from the UK, now. The immediate retort is that it was pushed out by Delta (as Deepto Gurdasani replied [<a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1425447336667455494" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], confusingly). But that's only indirectly, marginally true...<b><br /></b><br />We already had Alpha under control with the Christmas lockdowns, declining steadily even as the vaccination program really got under way. Now we have even higher population immunity to Alpha (because our vaccines are a lot more effective against it) and its R0 value is distinctly lower than Delta (both somewhere in the 70s). So, in conjunction with our remaining NPIs, that is what has really killed Alpha off. Only a very small percent of the population had actually contracted (and developed immunity from) Delta, by June, when Alpha died. Very minimal direct interaction. One can easily approximate them as separate epidemics anyway. At most, the delay in easing Stage 4 restrictions (due to Delta's rise) helped slightly. Like Covid measures, in general, squashed flu cases and RSV, last winter.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><br /></span></div><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html" id="C"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>◄C► Vaccine Effectiveness (VE) Updates (2021-08-19):</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;">Early Israeli data reportedly shows "<i>a 4.6-fold risk reduction in infection 10+ days after 3rd dose</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/dvir_a/status/1428415431249911809" target="_blank">Dvir Aran Twitter</a>]. So the US announcement [e.g. <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-start-offering-covid-19-vaccine-booster-doses-september-2021-08-18/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>] of booster shots for all (who will accept them), 8 months on from 2nd doses, is probably justified by science (at least in the most elderly). These are to be only mRNA (Pfizer, Moderna), but it may still further set back efforts to give developing countries any vaccine protection at all! (I think most will therefore just '<i>take it on the chin</i>', as India was quietly ravaged by Delta.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gDjjqxPll3g/YR7Zz-N-iRI/AAAAAAABCjg/IhjizI-vjbIcSzzx1bHmV2sfcJFCcVr-wCLcBGAsYHQ/E9KAnXIUYAMeC-D.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="2316" height="251" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gDjjqxPll3g/YR7Zz-N-iRI/AAAAAAABCjg/IhjizI-vjbIcSzzx1bHmV2sfcJFCcVr-wCLcBGAsYHQ/E9KAnXIUYAMeC-D.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.12.a</b> - FT via <a href="https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1428346750738210830" target="_blank">Eric Topol Twitter</a>] Apparently, further study results (and summaries) of VE are in line with 50-60% protection of 2-doses against infection/symptoms. Significantly lower than the best case figures I used in my calculation above (so presumably bringing population immunity down).<br /><br />More figures in this table [<b>Fig.12.b</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1428346743846887425" target="_blank">Eric Topol Twitter</a>]:<br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rnm0xmBIxvs/YR7asGq635I/AAAAAAABCjs/_jS_PHMmpCElXlm7gEiRN8_svEdMMtzqwCLcBGAsYHQ/E9J_7QbVIAEZ06F.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1101" data-original-width="2048" height="344" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rnm0xmBIxvs/YR7asGq635I/AAAAAAABCjs/_jS_PHMmpCElXlm7gEiRN8_svEdMMtzqwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h344/E9J_7QbVIAEZ06F.png" width="640" /></a></div></td></tr></tbody></table><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xuXNmt4eFbI/YR7bDd3jodI/AAAAAAABCj0/d_A4IvOhGUsrt5OrOZ86B4qKfcmT-IqDQCLcBGAsYHQ/EjAlZwaXcAEcmJx.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="285" data-original-width="480" height="238" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xuXNmt4eFbI/YR7bDd3jodI/AAAAAAABCj0/d_A4IvOhGUsrt5OrOZ86B4qKfcmT-IqDQCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h238/EjAlZwaXcAEcmJx.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.13</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1310613702476017666" target="_blank">Natalie E Dean Twitter</a>] How vaccine efficacy is calculated.</td></tr></tbody></table></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><span><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VKggLjZ4ET4/YR7W9M3s7LI/AAAAAAABCjU/UgIWoJ3NVXwCt8N6ln0Qp6auW1knujIpwCLcBGAsYHQ/E9BtKQ2VIAY1PD0.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1702" height="299" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VKggLjZ4ET4/YR7W9M3s7LI/AAAAAAABCjU/UgIWoJ3NVXwCt8N6ln0Qp6auW1knujIpwCLcBGAsYHQ/E9BtKQ2VIAY1PD0.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.14</b> - <a href="https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated" target="_blank">Covid Data Science</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1427767363080843265" target="_blank">Carl T Bergstrom Twitter</a>] Demonstrating the how naïve VE calculations create strange artefacts due to greatly differing rates of incidence and vaccination status across the ages. Stratifying the Israeli vaccine efficacy (against severe disease) data, into just two age ranges, has the unintuitive effect of increasing the final figure from 68% (whole population) to 92% (under 50s) and 85% (over 50s). <br /><br />So UK estimates may be too pessimistic for this reason, too. Good news - maybe my optimistic calculation is not so far out.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: large;">◄D►Next</span><span> - Delta's rise, global vaccination and IP waiver,</span> battle over Kids, Long Covid...</span></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-85791156982541979302021-07-25T12:02:00.110+01:002021-08-16T20:52:27.518+01:00Covid-19 (Part 5) - UK Government's Reckless Re-opening During Delta<p>Here we are again. In the alarming but familiar situation where the UK (or rather England's) covid-19 cases are soaring while government fails to act appropriately. The situation that kicked off my first posts, before the March 2020 peak: <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-deadly-wake-up-call-to.html" target="_blank">Part 1</a>, <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html" target="_blank">Part 2</a>, <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#more" target="_blank">Part 3</a>. Then for the even worst autumn/winter wave: <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-02-11" target="_blank">Part 4</a>... </p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TnVuMz0iPsw/YPYSQblrRhI/AAAAAAABBe4/uwfMcZ2PNiMITXM6Mb4KtC5ETV8FcxqMQCLcBGAsYHQ/s5f38gos.bmp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="680" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TnVuMz0iPsw/YPYSQblrRhI/AAAAAAABBe4/uwfMcZ2PNiMITXM6Mb4KtC5ETV8FcxqMQCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h400/s5f38gos.bmp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://twitter.com/CartoonRalph/status/1409984253434253312" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />... Except that this time, the death rate has been greatly diminished by vaccination: <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">case-fatality rate down roughly 12-fold, from ~2% to 0.16% [<a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805516551106562" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]</span>. For the older, vaccinated portion of society, at least. And as expected, it looks like high deaths really were the only thing holding our government back from pushing through herd immunity by full infection, with a reckless abandon that I feel is a crime against humanity. <br /><br />Here's a somewhat concise list of reasons why their particular interpretation of "<i>living with Covid</i>" is so dangerous and unnecessary, how it's been enabled (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#A">A</a> to <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#D">D</a>) and a possible upside (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#E">E</a>). Followed by a brief overall look at the current pandemic situation in other parts of the world (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#F">F</a>) and personal anecdotes (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#G">G</a>). Finally, some nice graphs further down (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#H">H</a>) that explorer some of the topics in more detail. {<i>Update 2021-07-30</i>: why did cases suddenly start to fall, just before re-opening (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#I">I</a>) & (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#J">J</a>)?}.<div><br /><div><span></span><span><a name='more'></a></span><div><div><span style="font-size: large;">◄A► Factors making the spread unnecessarily severe:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(1)</b> <b>Mask mandate removed</b> - now basically voluntary, everywhere, although the Mayor of London made them (theoretically) compulsory on their public transport network [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c9a6c0f0-985c-4563-91bb-aee51f0ab926" target="_blank">FT</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2)</b> <b>No ventilation - </b>initiative to improve safety in schools or workplaces, still! Highly recommend by [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/931034/S0798_Sixtieth_SAGE_meeting_on_Covid-19.pdf" target="_blank">SAGE, Oct 2020</a>] Probably the biggest oversight of our pandemic response, that's got stuck on surface contact/disinfecting [<a href="https://inews.co.uk/opinion/ignoring-ventilation-great-unspoken-error-governments-covid-19-strategy-1114073" target="_blank">iNews</a>]. Better ventilated rooms might not stop contagion between adjacent people, but will reduce outbreaks, which are key to Covid, with it's high dispersion factor [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-29" target="_blank">my Blog part 4</a>]. Aside from Covid, this would improve high indoor CO2 concentrations, already identified to seriously impact cognition and health [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0323-1.epdf?sharing_token=QASPRX60TKSp9reDIH_RDNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Nmh56_6v6IG1wyUXiF6sNTHAt-0vDDZqKRyKQg__8_oxrm08uvJsMrDK8PUmvmArkegYALMahVANSDeRSyA8bTgKfjffuaO26tlP3hD6cHFJFm0RG8oSheeD0KC5mI-WlSIvZFjIL2uyZaN9KCm3_Lbdv7vGDkqNLiWzCKvPLh_8frf88zlrpECCEpeNnT6fFdkuk5mdFgJYeS6LPRWtSJ3t0qVO-l-XeqvTlXVLKdJ67nc_EcZbx81TO5U6j_0n8DVYx7grx2XpOTzwg47jCzCSMQD4aMlfh3OAMqVlExl12ypFPJ2vusV_zOO3Nz92E%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com" target="_blank">Nature</a>, via <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/08/indoor-carbon-dioxide-levels-could-be-a-health-hazard-scientists-warn" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3)</b> <b>Test and Trace still infective -</b> with no still decisive reforms or<b> </b>effort to improve (financial) support to enable case isolation! In January [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html" target="_blank">part 4 blog</a> (5d)] I mentioned that 18% of infections were not isolating (most not going for testing). Improving integration with (more efficient) local public health resources have been very slow and incomplete. The huge budget would be OK value, if it worked [<a href="https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/127/public-accounts-committee/news/150988/unimaginable-cost-of-test-trace-failed-to-deliver-central-promise-of-averting-another-lockdown/" target="_blank">UK Parliament Committees</a>]. But the majority of tests come during peaks of high transmission, when contact tracing is overwhelmed and so too slow to be effective. The structural failures of this largely privatised system [<a href="https://twitter.com/GoodLawProject/status/1329748356814548992/photo/1" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] have been a recurring focus of Independent SAGE, for their whole existence [<a href="https://twitter.com/search?lang=en&q=test%20and%20trace%20(from%3AIndependentSage)&src=typed_query" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Of its expansive and expanded [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NHS_Test_and_Trace" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] £22Bn budget, from May 2020 to April 2021, <b>£13.5Bn</b> (unaudited number) was actually spent [<a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/report/test-and-trace-in-england-progress-update/" target="_blank">National Audit Office</a>]. "<i>£10.4 billion on testing; £1.8 billion on identifying and containing local outbreaks; and £0.9 billion on tracing.</i>" [<a href="https://www.nao.org.uk/press-release/test-and-trace-in-england-progress-update/" target="_blank">NAO</a>]. For scale comparison, the <i>total </i>NHS budget for last year was £129 [<a href="https://nhsproviders.org/media/690968/nhs-providers-briefing-march-2021-budget.pdf" target="_blank">NHSproviders</a>]. Unknown spent of current £15Bn budget, to April 2022. Testing expense has mostly transitioned to LFD (lateral flow) tests (instead of PCR labs). with 691Mn units distributed in England. But only 14% had results registered (verses their forecast 95%), raising huge questions. As with PPE purchases, there's serious concern of possible corruption over their sourcing (and therefore worrying conflicts of interest!). Decision making was opaque, with communications via private email addresses and huge contracts fast tracked via "VIP lanes", awarded without tender, to tiny companies often owned by social contacts of ministers [<a href="https://goodlawproject.org/news/vip-lane-for-testing-contracts/" target="_blank">GoodLawProject</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/22/fifth-of-uk-covid-contracts-raised-red-flags-for-possible-corruption" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(4)</b> "<b>Pingdemic</b>" - headlines [e.g. <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57854999" target="_blank">BBC</a>] creating a narrative that dissociates from fact that disruption of rising app notifications <i>is due to high virus transmission</i>! (In combination with more social proximity than during the winter peak.) It's as myopic as raging at the car directly in front of you for not moving in a traffic jam. Minsters ordered contact notifications to be scaled back [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-57786032" target="_blank">BBC</a>]! Which seems like a very short term fix to disruption, likely to make things worst, thereafter. There's an argument that excess sensitivity will cause more people to simply uninstall the app [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/09/nhs-covid-app-sensitivity-tweak-reduce-alerts-keep-people-using" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. That's happening anyway, with check-ins down from 14.5Mn to 12.5Mn during June. It's estimated the app averted between 100k to 900k cases, from September through December 2020 second wave) [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03606-z" target="_blank">Nature</a>]. Which I thinks is fairly insubstantial and will be less effective with slower testing turn-around times, during this infection surge.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5) Ministers contradicting policy - </b>constantly undermining messaging and public motivation. E.g. Sunak and Johnson initially declaring themselves to conveniently be in the T&T isolation exemption scheme, after Javid (double vaccinated) tested positive. And who preceded to incorrectly suggest people with symptoms to take lateral flow tests, instead of PCR. Stephen Reicher (a sub-group member of SAGE and Independent Sage) has equated all this to "<i>a massive disinformation campaign that undermines the conditions for informed decision-making</i>" [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/13/how-government-messaging-is-undermining-the-covid-19-response/" target="_blank">BMJ</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(6)</b> <b>No vaccination for teenagers</b> - despite UK's MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare Regulatory Body) finding Pfizer safe for kids, the JCVI mysteriously did not recommended it [<a href="https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1417160105649483776" target="_blank">Dr Gabriel Scally Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/british-ministers-decide-against-mass-vaccination-teenagers-telegraph-2021-07-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]. Israel, Italy, France and US are now vaccinating all teens, with Germany offering an opt-in [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/26/covid-young-people-england-virus-spread-uk" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. There are some rare harms (not all fully acknowledged), but these pale in comparison to the long term health burden of the huge wave of infections that is incoming/ongoing. </p><p style="text-align: left;">The issue is that UK initially ordered 40Mn Pfizer doses [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/mar/28/moderna-covid-vaccine-to-be-introduced-in-uk-from-april" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. The only vaccine currently with sufficiently good safety data for youngsters. But 20.4Mn first doses have already been used (as of 21st July) [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#summary" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/mac_puck/status/1416666564003352576" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. Meaning that the whole remaining supply should be reserved for second doses (with the next order not due until September). So, like with the early mask shortage, presentation of the science is seemingly twisted to manipulate the public into a policy of triage, rather than admit a (politically damaging) shortfall. With the same long term impact of severely muddying the water in terms of messaging and perceptions of efficacy/safety. And the media aren't jumping on this. Also, Long Covid (in kids) is being disregarded, see (<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#C">C</a>.5) below.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7) Delta variant let in </b>- we watched high case load in India causing chaos, with explosive growth from mid February [<a href="https://science.thewire.in/health/sars-cov-2-variants-b117-b1617-india-second-wave-uncertain-future/" target="_blank">ScienceTheWire</a>] and seroprevalence data suggesting that actually 30-40% of the population had been infected by mid-April! UK experts were lamenting, in early to mid April [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/17/add-india-to-uk-travel-ban-list-to-stop-covid-coronavirus-variant-urges-scientist" target="_blank">Guardian</a>], the mysterious decision not at add India to the travel "red list" (i.e. greatly reducing flights and requiring 10 day quarantine for returning Brits). As was already the case for other countries with much lower levels of infection (e.g. Pakistan). <br /><br />This eventually happened on the 23rd, after Johnson's visit to India (for post-Brexit trade talks with Prime Minister Modi) was cancelled on the 19th April [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/apr/19/boris-johnson-cancels-india-trade-trip-covid-situation" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. There had been 77 detected cases (in UK) by April 17th. If not holding off for the state visit, it would probably have been expected to have red listed India 3 weeks earlier, at the start of April. Although, given our ramshackle travel precautions and lack of suppression strategy, overall, this specific failure merely accelerated the take-off of Delta in the UK. But, football socialising would have amplified case numbers far less, with a lower starting number of the more transmissible Delta. And now we're probably amplifying that again with this re-opening, just before we can quite finish vaccinating the young.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8) Symptom lists inexplicably not updated</b> - on the official government website [<a href="https://covid19.gov.gg/guidance/symptoms" target="_blank">Gov</a>]. Still saying "<i>cough, anosmia, fever</i>" when much more common (after vaccinations) are: <i>headache, runny nose, sneezing, sore throat, loss of smell</i> [<a href="https://youtu.be/uM5NUnXboO0?t=518" target="_blank">Dr John Campbell YouTube</a>]. So many not aware to get tested or isolate.</p></div><div><br /><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="B"></a><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄B► A</span><span style="font-size: large;">voidable harms of high transmission:</span></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(1)</b> <b>Breeding new variants -</b> with maximised chance of immune & vaccine escape! Endangering the whole world, again. "<i>Living with the virus</i>", as in, accepting an unending endemic state, is probably the most efficient way to promote new variants [<a href="https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1420133050399264771" target="_blank"><span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Diego Bassani </span>Twitter thread</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) </b><b>Long-Covid</b> (LC) - 100s of thousands <i>more </i>cases in all ages. Potentially doubling up existing numbers, if spread now goes unchecked. See graphs of LC incidence, symptoms, etc, in Fig.15, 16, 17, 18, below. {<i>2021-07-29:</i> An early small study from Israel indicates LC still occurs in ~20% of cases, 6 weeks on from 'breakthrough' symptomatic infection of <i>fully vaccinated</i> individuals [<a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2021/07/28/1021888033/breakthrough-infections-may-cause-long-covid-symptoms-small-study-suggests?t=1627516289989" target="_blank">NPR</a>]. Although vaccination does significantly reduce numbers with symptoms.}</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3)</b> <b>NHS overcapacity/collapse </b>- more knock-on effects increasing health burden and deaths. Higher proportion of younger patients means more eligible for ICU instead of palliative care. Harder decisions. Staff destroyed through illness, burn-out and no (real terms) pay rise (see Fig.19, below).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(4) Disruption to workforces and economy</b> - more acute than any previous peaks. "Pingdemic", with app notifying 620k people to isolate in last week, currently being blamed for some empty supermarket shelves and a few closed stores [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/pingdemic-grips-britain-fears-food-shortages-grow-2021-07-22/?taid=60f91e83b881cc0001a16b9c&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter" target="_blank">Reuters</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/i/events/1418139975736913925" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5) Stress <i>greatly increased </i>for vulnerable shielding</b>. Families having to choose between kid's education and major health risks, etc. Now with even less support; burden moved from state to unfortunate individuals. A study recently showed shielding was also far less effective than hoped [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/27/people-shielding-still-eight-times-more-likely-to-get-covid-19-study-finds?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3TJgJ0oaMBd3GlIAOY1Qk0fG4f0KA0PLbEQx3WvGZBzWJiTM03SVxMbBE" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. They were 8 times more likely to have a test confirmed infection (during the first wave in Glasgow and Clyde). Then, of course, 5 times more likely to die from that infection (than low risk individuals). Many vulnerable won't have even been able to be (effectively) vaccinated, now, for health reasons.</p><p style="text-align: left;">(<b>6) Cognitive deficits after recovery</b> - Covid literally leaves us dumber, on average [<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013" target="_blank">EClinicalMedicine</a>]. Those at home with respiratory symptoms lost roughly the equivalent of one IQ (intelligence quotient). Scaling up 7 IQ, for those in hospital on ventilators - worst than stroke cases. See (Fig.18) below for more details.<br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7) Parkinson's epidemic</b> - in rhesus macaques, used as a model for (human) infection, SARS-CoV-2 cause brain inflammation and Lewy bodies to form, which are associated with Parkinson's [<a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.432474v2" target="_blank">biorxiv</a>]. People born during the time of the 1918 Spanish flu outbreak had a 2-3-fold-increased risk of Parkinson's Disease [<a href="https://www.worldpdcongress.org/home/2017/4/7/flu-and-you" target="_blank">WorldCongress</a>]. The burden of worsened health, from all these infections, is likely to keep piling up for many decades.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8) Brexit harms amplified</b> - I predicted these during the previous peak, too. I didn't experience any severe impacts personally. But I only see my local Sainsbury's and the odd Amazon delivery. There's many more consequences of Brexit still developing over time. Most visible is currently the HGV lorry driver shortages. They were in chronic short supply, pre-pandemic, with EU drivers brought in to stave off crises during demand peaks (e.g. Christmas and summer salads). Pandemic control measures may have decreased some HGV haulage demand, via shut-down sectors. But it also caused many EU drivers to return home and now cannot return, due to new points-based immigration rules [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-48785695" target="_blank">BBC</a>], first outlined last year by Priti Patel [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/13/priti-patel-to-unveil-details-of-post-brexit-immigration-plans" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Training of new drivers was slowed by restrictions and overall shortage is estimated at 22k to 30k, 7-10% of 300k total driver demand, with half of existing over 55 and heading for retirement [<a href="https://www.ukhaulier.co.uk/news/road-transport/drivers/the-uk-is-about-to-experience-a-catastrophic-hgv-driver-shortage-for-the-first-time-in-20-years-and-we-must-brace-ourselves-for-impact/" target="_blank">UK Haulier</a>]. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Transport secretary, Grant Shapps, announced relaxation of safety limits on how long drivers can work for [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/07/working-hours-rules-to-be-relaxed-to-ease-uk-lorry-driver-shortage" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Prompting parody headlines of "<i>Government to supply HGV drivers with amphetamines to combat tiredness – “Like WW2 fighter pilots</i>” " [<a href="https://lcdviews.com/2021/07/08/government-to-supply-hgv-drivers-with-amphetamines-to-combat-tiredness-like-ww2-fighter-pilots/" target="_blank">LCD Views</a>]. Also, moves to fast track the licensing processes (to help with the 25k application backlog) will likely not help at all before Christmas [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jul/20/hgv-license-fast-track-wont-stop-uk-food-shortages-industry-warns" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Logistics UK estimating 90k HGV driver shortage (don't know why different numbers), with 25k EU drivers returned home, and only immigration accommodation likely to help sufficiently. A rolling crisis throughout 2020, with delivery fulfilment currently at a dismal 80% (normally >98%). Offering drive pay increases of 15-20% has reportedly not helped recruitment. But 3k drivers are planning as "stay at home" action on 23 August, to protest poor pay and working conditions [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jul/24/lorry-drivers-plan-to-strike-over-low-pay-and-poor-working-conditions" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. The "pingdemic" impact has been mitigated, here, with exemptions from contact isolation for food distribution centres.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(9) Ongoing political distraction</b> - so far hiding bills passed to hasten privatising the NHS. An upcoming draconian bill enabling press to be jailed for "embarrassing" the government [<a href="https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1417521957759762434" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/20/proposed-secrecy-law-journalism-spying-home-office-public-interest-whistleblowing" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]! Plus the endless revelations of staggering corruption by ministers. And hiding harms of Brexit that are unequivocally entirely of this government's making.</p><b>(10)</b> <b>Being sick is really rubbish</b> - millions of people are probably going to have a week or two (or five or more) of experience the effects of a very unpleasant infection. Predominantly the young adults and kids who have been impacted the worst by social restrictions. Now we need a huge swathe of them to get infected (if no vaccination), to reach herd immunity [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1409865926942642178" target="_blank">Professor Pagel Twitter</a>]. Getting hit with a worst strain of the virus, that's about 2.5x more likely to require hospitalisation, if unvaccinated [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993427/S1289_Imperial_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf" target="_blank">Imperial Modelling paper page 25, point 8</a>]. We may need them to <i>then </i>get vaccinated too! Because we won't be able to tell reliably who's been infected. And immunity against transmission might be lower than with vaccines (or at least a booster), although infection does appear better for this (see <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#E">E</a>.1).<p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="C"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>◄C► This reckless r</span><span>e-opening was enabled by:</span><br /></span><br /><b>(1)</b> <b>Public</b> - rightly fed up of social restrictions, many families and individuals feel near breaking point. Desperate to believe in a return to normality, or feeling powerless and resigned to whatever is imposed.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) Political rhetoric</b> - "<i>Now or never</i>" from Johnson and oligarch press, created a false dichotomy that's impossible to argue against. Like the EU referendum was asking the wrong question, but succeeded as a culture war. So too "<i>Freedom day</i>" put the focus on dates rather than data. Banishing fruitful discussion of subtleties, like continued mask mandate or fact that it won't achieve what it claims.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3)</b> <b>Vaccinations </b>- good success (see <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#H">H</a>.Fig.7, 8, 9), but not yet as thorough as is generally made out. Nor far ahead of comparable EU countries, ultimately. They have generally been maintaining far better suppression and now also using their more ample supply of Pfizer to vaccinate teens, too.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(4)</b> <b>National exceptionalism</b> - that we yet again seem to ignore the rest of the world, many of whom are watching our mass infection experiment with horror. (Media in some other countries supposedly referring to our Freedom Day as the "<i>English experiment</i>".)</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5)</b> <b>Long-Covid is disregarded</b> - because post viral illness and ME/CFS has been ignored, psychologised and mistreated for so long (medical system inertia). A sociologist apparently speaking for JCVI, minimising existence of LC and using debunked psychological framework [<a href="https://twitter.com/hughes_eilir/status/1417255906748809233" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(6) Health secretary change</b> - Matt Hancock eventually resigned after photos of a sordid office fling, rather than for his lying, incompetence and corruption. Ultimately bad news for us, as his replacement, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sajid_Javid" target="_blank">Sajid Javid</a>, is even more deliberately callous [e.g. <a href="https://twitter.com/davidschneider/status/1419062278608015362" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. He's a banker and former chancellor, who's clearly aligned with Rishi Sunank's counterproductive finance-over-people thinking.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7) Johnson's Lying</b> - not being reported by press, BBC, etc, despite voluminous clear-cut documented evidence [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1417524808141639682" target="_blank">Peter Stefanovic Twitter</a>]. It's currently forbidden to call it out for what it is in parliament! Dawn Butler was ejected for this [<a href="https://twitter.com/WinstonCProject/status/1418225311422980102" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], referring to his false assertion that vaccines have "<i>severed</i>" the link between cases and hospitalisation/deaths, as opposed to just greatly diminishing it (a relatively small twist of the truth, for him).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8) Tory MP backbenchers</b> - many more far right that ever, making unrealistic or outright anti-science demands. Pressuring Johnson. Some associated with anti-vax agitators, e.g. MP Mark Francois with those talking about Nuremberg trials hanging of doctors [<a href="https://twitter.com/marclister3k/status/1418908199181242368" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(9) Absent political pressure</b> - from Labour party (alternatively silent or ignored). Nor from electorate, as voting intention poles continue to favour Conservatives [<a href="https://www.survation.com/conservative-lead-cut-to-4-points/" target="_blank">Survation</a>], despite everything.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(10) Scientific advisors toe government line</b> - e.g. Whitty and Vallance did implicitly contradict minister's care-free language and approach, by publicly urging a "<i>slow and cautious</i>" lifting of restrictions to reduce the rise in infections [<a href="https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/covid-exit-wave-lockdown-ends-chris-whitty-b945392.html" target="_blank">EveningStandard</a>]. </p><p style="text-align: left;">But Whitty also verged on hyperbole, by asserting that an exit wave is <i>inevitable</i>. With hospitalisations and deaths not really reduced by further delay (and at some point NHS would be under more stress from other factors, during winter). Professor Pagel hotly contested this inevitability, citing Israel's successful cautious exit after being first to complete vaccinations [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1414657288837734406" target="_blank">Twitter1</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1414986612979679234" target="_blank">2</a>]. Reintroducing some measures now due to importing Delta [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8c3ec364-e687-4daf-9442-e73065aa2649" target="_blank">FT</a>]. Discussion continues under image Fig.20, way down below...</p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(11) C</b><b>riticism is i</b><b>mpossible</b> - Before we see the consequences of pandemic decisions, one is told that we can't possible know any better. Then afterwards, you're just "captain hindsight". Same for Keir Starmer, in parliament, as between friends in private discussion. Or that other countries have problems too (true, but doesn't negate our failings).<br /><br /><b>(12) Avoiding use of "<i>herd immunity</i>" term -</b> This flimsy veil of plausible deniability means that the media, e.g. BBC News here, refuse to accept criticism of government on this basis [<a href="https://twitter.com/allthecitizens/status/1413619339186552832" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. Not even acknowledging scathing criticism from the director of the WHO, specifically aimed at this approach. A SAGE advisor, Prof Robert West, has explicitly stated that this appears to be their plan, with talk of "<i>caution</i>" as a way to pass the blame to the public [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/23/ministers-letting-young-people-catch-covid-to-prepare-for-winter-sage-adviser-claims?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(13) North of England</b> has seen the most intense outbreak so far. Much easier for government to ignore that, compared with London's leading role in the previous waves.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(14) Football</b> - with England reaching the finals of the Euros, many fans have been gathered in pubs, houses, the stadium and tearing up the streets for no good reason, bumping up cases (just about) visibly after each match (see <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#H">H</a>.Fig.21 graphs, below). This should probably be in my section A or D. But the accompanying nationalism and distraction factor also bolstered government, with minsters keep to wrap themselves in glory. Despite scathing criticism rightly directed at them by the players on the team. If only we could switch their jobs, we'd be in much better shape.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="D"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄D► Re-opening despite:</span><br /><br /><b>(1)</b> <b>UK cases rising exponentially</b> - (e.g. graph <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#H">H</a>.Fig12). We had, I think, the 2nd highest infection rate in the world (of major countries). Hospital and ICU admissions were above the level <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">where restrictions were introduced last year, rising at the same rate as in previous waves [</span><a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805533382742020" target="_blank">John Burn-Murdoch Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) Alert levels ignored - </b>Gov totally contradicting their own roadmap criteria, again (shown below).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3) Outcry from scientists and health experts</b> - here, and around the world. 1200 health academics and doctors [<a href="https://www.johnsnowmemo.com/" target="_blank">JohnSnowMemorandum</a>] officially backed an open letter in the [<a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01589-0/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet</a>], directly co-signed by 122. It mentions many of the points discussed here. British Medical Journal urged continued caution [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/14/the-pros-and-cons-of-freedom-day-a-view-from-immunology/" target="_blank">BMJ</a>]. All 4 of UK's public health bodies warned “<i>Living with Covid-19 is not the same thing as letting it rip.</i>” [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/17/sajid-javid-tests-positive-as-health-chiefs-tell-pm-dont-let-covid-rip?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. The executive director of the WHO said on the topic of the UK: "<i>a rush to re-open economies that accepted infections as inevitable and
encouraged them to occur “sooner rather than later” amounted to “moral
emptiness and epidemiological stupidity</i>” " [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01938-4" target="_blank">Nature</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(4) Delta variant</b> - 2x more virulent and transmissible (R0 of ~5 to 8) than the original virus (R0 ~2.6) and 50% more than Alpha (AKA "Kent", R0 ~4). Spread ramps up much more sharply, harder to get back under control later and much higher (almost perfect) population immunity needed for full suppression.</p><p></p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5) The Netherlands reopening</b> - 2 weeks ago sending their falling case numbers rocketing, doubling every 2 days and forcing a partial reversal (graph below).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(6) Vaccinations give stronger immunity</b> - against symptomatic infection for longer [<a href="https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/why-covid-19-vaccines-offer-better-protection-than-infection.html" target="_blank">JHSPH</a>]. Although more severe illness generally confers stronger immunity, it tends to wane by 6 months and isn't guaranteed against variants. Natural immunity appears extremely variable between individuals [<a href="https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-612205/v1" target="_blank">Research Square</a>, via <a href="https://newatlas.com/health-wellbeing/vaccine-immunity-stronger-than-natural-infection-covid/" target="_blank">NewAtlas</a>]. Reduction of transmission may work differently (see <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/covid-19-part-5-uk-governments-reckless.html#E">E</a>.1, below).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7) No</b> evidence of <b>increased deaths from lockdowns</b> themselves [<a href="https://gh.bmj.com/content/6/8/e006653" target="_blank">BMJ </a>via <a href="https://twitter.com/GYamey/status/1417519837329436672" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. No signs of uptick in suicides (as yet). Non-Covid deaths, during large outbreak lockdowns, associated with redirected medical resources and potential patients scared away from healthcare settings by high case numbers. Fast acting nations actually saw up to 6% mortality reduction from reduced flu, alone [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/20/lockdowns-do-not-harm-health-more-than-covid-say-researchers" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8) Vulnerable people</b> - are being hung out to dry. 3.8Mn clinically vulnerable, left to shield with less/no support [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/18/clinically-vulnerable-people-ministers-covid?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" target="_blank">Frances Ryan Guardian</a>]. An anti-freedom day, introducing traumatising stress, while the media over-hyping the psychological challenge to ditch lockdown anxiety, as if everything's fine now. Many having to make hard choices, e.g. between protecting an immune compromised, vulnerable parent verses sending their kid(s) to schools, that no longer have mitigations or even notifications about confirmed cases.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(9) Cummings </b>dishing dirt [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-57854811?at_custom4=68B8C2A8-E8D4-11EB-BDAA-84413A982C1E" target="_blank">BBC</a>] on Johnson's reckless incompetence (presented in a self-serving fashion, of course). Also confirming Johnson's dithering was to blame for Autumn/Winter wave and Delta [<a href="https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1416513782285803520" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="E"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄E► Upsides & Successes:</span><br /><br /><b>(1) Infections *</b><i style="font-weight: bold;">might* </i><b>protect far better than vaccines [Edit: </b><i>I don't think so, see J.4</i><b>] - </b>against <i>transmitting </i>the virus: close to 100% verses 60% protection from 2 doses of Pfizer, according to this Israeli information [<a href="https://twitter.com/erlichya/status/1417500160838471688" target="_blank">Yanic Erlich Twitter</a>]. I don't know what level of uncertainty is associated with this; I've not seen the 100% protection of infection published or talked about elsewhere (in fact I've heard anecdotally of "<i>breakthrough</i>" re-infections). The "<i>preliminary study compiled by the [Israeli] health ministry</i>" is reporting Pfizer at 64% effective against transmission of Delta, here [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/8c3ec364-e687-4daf-9442-e73065aa2649" target="_blank">FT</a>]. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Erlich roughly calculates, his number would mean Israel's population resistance to transmission is ~42%, from vaccines and infections combined. Which is only just enough cancel out Delta's higher R value (back to the same as the original Wuhan virus). Effectively setting pandemic control measures back to March 2020. Implying that countries will either need to continue suppression strategies, embrace mass infection, or rely on updated vaccines. Not far off, in the west, but manufacturing boosters will set back the global supply situation further.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) Delaying re-opening</b> - from Jun 21st to July 19th was a very good move. Full re-opening during the football-enhanced spread (and schools all weeks away from holidays) would have been much more disastrous! We seems like we also got lucky with a heat wave, around the delayed relaxation date, which means additional social contact will have been much more outside, or at least with windows side open. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="F"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄F► Other Countries (the grass isn't always greener...):</span><br /><br /><b>(1)</b> <b>India -</b> where the Delta variant probably originated, in the later part of 2020, with citizens dying on the streets earlier this year. Seroprevalence studies there have seen Covid-19 antibodies in 67.6% of the (randomly sampled) population of 1.3Bn people, verses 24% in January [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/21/covid-19-antibodies-detected-in-67-of-indias-population" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Which is probably the main explanation for their falling case rates, given only 13% are fully vaccinated, 24% with one dose. Despite being the world's biggest vaccine manufacturer & exporter [<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/05/why-covid-vaccine-producer-india-faces-major-shortage-of-doses.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a>]. Their official death toll stands at 400k, but [<a href="https://www.cgdev.org/publication/three-new-estimates-indias-all-cause-excess-mortality-during-covid-19-pandemic" target="_blank">Centre for Global Development</a>] analysis estimates the true toll is an order of magnitude greater, at 3.4Mn to 4.9Mn! More than the official total for the rest of the world combined. Really putting the hand wringing of this blog post into a different perspective. </p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) US</b> - Delta is now taking off there, too [<a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1419079452718415875" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. Potentially an even bigger problem for them, given lower levels of vaccination, due to greater anti-vax sentiment (from Republican party nonsense, Trump legacy, conspiracy theories, disinformation, etc). I think the UK could have delayed our Delta outbreak about equally as far, if we had taken measures against travel to/from India at a more reasonable time.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3) </b><b>Japan</b> - obviously has the Olympic games going on right now (a year delayed). Even with no audiences [<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WH56mFHyfg0" target="_blank">Channel 4 News YouTube</a>], there's still an expectation for it to double case numbers []. There's only ~15k official deaths, in a population of 126Mn. A far better record than UK, US or EU countries. But there were reports of their hospitals being overwhelmed in May [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/no-ones-safe-anymore-japans-osaka-city-crumples-under-covid-19-onslaught-2021-05-24/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]. Despite the highest number of beds per per in the world (~13 per 1k verses ~2.5 per 1k in UK) and same for ICU places and ventilators [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;">Japan's testing rate is tiny, currently totalling 0.14 tests per person, verses UK's 3.45 [<a href="https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/" target="_blank">WorldOmeter</a>]. But I don't think there's scope for the kind of massive under-reporting seen in India, where death certificates aren't issued regularly, so excess mortality can't be even checked. Japan's not really seen excess deaths [<a href="https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/coronavirus-excess-deaths-tracker" target="_blank">Economist</a>]. So, these were perhaps only regional outbreaks, with ICU capacity and drug shortages mostly limited to Osaka. But Japan's vaccination rollout was delayed, a few months behind ours (with reliance on pharmaceutical imports). So they are more vulnerable to a Delta outbreak, for now.<br /><br /><b>(4) Brazil</b> - is not stranger to poorly controlled outbreaks. President Jair Bolsonaro has been as bad as (or worst than) Trump. Things have been so bad his popularity has been plunging, while he faces corruption charges, previously contracted Covid himself and is now hospitalised for uncontrollable hiccups [<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/americas/bolsonaro-scandals-health-scare-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>]. With the Southern hemisphere currently mid-winter, Brazil is seeing 1000 deaths per day, atop 544k total and 20Mn cases. That's official figures; probably much worst in practice, given they've never managed to bring cases back under control<span> </span>. <br /><br />A rising tide of cases, earlier this year, brought to much more transmissible P.1 (Gamma) variant, with some immunity escape. It emerge from the badly hit city of Manaus, with endemic spread for most of 2020. These conditions allowed mutations to accumulate and variants compete, including within the 30% of individuals previously infected [<a href="https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1420133055528902657" target="_blank">Diego Bassani Tiwtter</a>]. P.1 spread to other South America Countries, causing problems in Chile and Uruguay, previously lauded for good Covid management [<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n1227" target="_blank">BMJ</a>]. Chile being the most well vaccinated country in the world, over 10M population, where over 70% of the population's had one dose (or two).</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(5) Africa</b> - Scary times incoming! With virtually no vaccinations, deaths from Delta are now kicking off, in the countries we have data for, at least. See Fig.5 and 6 images, below.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(6) Myanmar </b>- has seen an explosion of cases in the last month, having been relatively under control. It's still under military (junta) rule, following the coup in February, which took power back from the recently elected government [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/01/aung-san-suu-kyi-and-other-figures-detained-in-myanmar-raids-says-ruling-party" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Part of that move famously taking place in the background of this viral workout video [<a href="https://twitter.com/AdityaRajKaul/status/1356315137976672259?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1356315137976672259%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.npr.org%2F2021%2F02%2F02%2F963300568%2Fcoup-caught-on-camera-myanmar-woman-goes-viral-for-dance-video-with-surreal-back" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Now there are reports of citizens being shot at by junta forces, while standing in line for oxygen bottles [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/28/myanmar-could-become-covid-super-spreader-state-says-un-expert" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Doctors also being arrested, having been at the forefront of anti-junta strikes. Journalists also targeted, making accurate information difficult. The headlines are of it becoming a possible "<i>super-spreader</i>" state, on the board of most mainland Asian countries. Certainly a humanitarian disaster, but with a population of 50Mn, that threat seems almost quaint, adjacent to the 900Mn plus quietly infected in India, within the last year.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(7) Thailand</b> - next door, is also seeing a rapid rise in infections, with a warehouse recently repurposed as a 1800 bed field hospital [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/29/thailand-bangkok-warehouse-turned-into-1800-bed-hospital-as-covid-crisis-worsens" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Making our ExCel centre "Nightingale" look well equipped. Thailand currently have only ~5% vaccinated, with excessive reliance on domestically produced AstraZeneca from a royally owned manufacturer that's never supplied vaccines before.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(8) UK's affect abroad</b> - We generously gave the Alpha variant to the world (the most successful until Delta). But government succeeded in the parliamentary vote to cut our overseas development (foreign aid) budget from a minimum of 0.7% GDP to 0.5%, for at least the next 3 years, probably indefinitely [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-parliament-backs-foreign-aid-cut-after-pm-johnson-sees-off-rebellion-2021-07-13/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]. Despite open condemnation by our previous PM, Theresa May (architect of the "hostile environment" for migrants, a home secretary), leading a limited backseat Tory rebellion. It's mostly narrow minded penny pinching, at the expense of the most vulnerable in the world (whose lives are cheapest to improve). But with the huge Brexit hit to UK exports, our trade deficit will be ballooning - more £ headed out than returning, devaluing our currency abroad.</p><p style="text-align: left;">Then there's UK's ongoing blocking of a vaccine patent waiver [<a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2021/07/we-cannot-escape-threat-covid-19-until-we-vaccinate-world" target="_blank">New Statesman</a>], along with Canada and German (which have big pharmaceutical industries). This despite Biden's US surprisingly having reversed it position, to back a waiver in May [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01224-3" target="_blank">Nature</a>]. The WTO (World Trade Organisation) won't negotiate until all member agree (including UK, etc). If this is passed, there would then need to be knowledge sharing and finally massive investment in (global) manufacturing capacity. Obviously pharmaceutical companies are very unhappy and Bill Gates joins their chorus, saying it's not practical. </p><p style="text-align: left;">Ultimately I can't see a better way, than building up a world wide, rapid response immune system [<a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1421261582802243588" target="_blank">my Twitter</a>]. Ready to tackle new variants and new viruses before they cause so much chaos again. As things stand, only 14.7% of the world's population are fully vaccinated (1.1% in low-income countries). With widespread dependence on an AstraZeneca vaccine that's being blocked from export by India and already down to only ~60% effective against the dominant variant, anyway. Unless we radically overhaul the situation, there's no chance we'll be able to clamp down on global endemic spread, which will inevitable produce the worst possible variants.</p><p style="text-align: left;">(<b>9) Australia [2021-08-07] </b>- Is in a precarious position, locking down to try containing spread from almost 300 cases of Delta in New South Wales [<a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1423455534506729476" target="_blank">Meaghan Kall Twitter</a>]. The problem is that under 20% have been vaccinated, so far, so spread will be devastatingly explosive, if it gets out of control. Note, this is a failure of vaccine program, *not* a double edged sword of previous success in preventing spread; less than 20% of the UK population has antibodies from past infections, adding only ~2 to 3% extra atop the 90% of adults with antibodies from 1 or more vaccine doses [<a href="https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1421963278499078145" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="G"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><span>◄G► Personal a</span><span>necdotes:<br /></span></span><br /><b>(1) Personally -</b> I was lucky enough to get a Pfizer vaccination a little early, by phoning my surgery. That was 3 weeks after they apparently lost the 2 page letter I physically posted to them, justifying why my ME/CFS should have had me included in the JCVI's priority group 6. My parent's were vaccinated months before that, of course. So our household has as much protection as anyone in the world. </p><p style="text-align: left;">But I'm acutely aware that other family and friends (in their 30s) have only had their first doses, with full (neutralising) immunity still many weeks away for them. Already much safer in terms of mortality, but unlikely to be protected against (symptomatic) infection itself. (In fact, one young family member mildly symptomatic, as of a couple weeks ago.) So they, and their kids (more so), are still quite vulnerable to long-Covid.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(2) Serious vaccine side effects</b> - an generation older cousin of mine got hit badly by vertigo and fatigue (I think) with neurological issues arising directly after their Astrazeneca jab. A relative of a friend was hospitalised with clots from this, too. And while the majority of my online ME/CFS contacts recovered from vaccination side effects (some temporarily improved, even), at least one continues to suffer significant leg weakness, many weeks after the temporary worsening of chronic symptoms faded.</p><p style="text-align: left;"><b>(3) Supermarket experience</b> - the only place I ever get out to (once a week). The day after re-opening, I was initially pleased that the vast majority continued to wear masks, there. But at the end I say a lot of 20s/30s, young families, in particular, it seemed, not wearing masks. Despite continued loud speaker announcements asking for it. Ironic, if they weren't fully vaccinated (or previously infected); I think the concept of protecting the elderly from death has overshadowed other considerations, with government (mixed) messaging that youngster are 'safe'.<br /><br />The Perspex dividers between checkouts had all been immediately removed, too. Which some have lamented, but I wasn't worried about, given that there's no strong evidence of their effectiveness; they are just as likely to inhibit ventilation of aerosol particles, that are the main vector of transmission [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007489/S1321_EMG_Role_of_Screens_and_Barriers_in_Mitigating_COVID-19_transmission.pdf" target="_blank">SAGE on Gov.UK</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1421103160387674114" target="_blank">Twitter</a> 2021-07-30].</p><p style="text-align: left;">A couple of empty shelves, too, but nothing drastically beyond normal for the time of day.{Update: the week after, all the fresh food was well stocked (in the morning), but the freezer section was very depleted. Like they've been prioritising the limited haulage to perishables; plenty in the country, difficult to distribute to shops.}</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="H"></a><p style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄H► Graphs with more detailed discussion: </span></p><p style="text-align: left;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QVSWOOTeG_A/YPzz_YobCcI/AAAAAAABBuA/zlA16Mx6tVse6UUul03NIe4cld5P3oCVgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-25%2BHerd%2Bimmunity%2Bgraph%2Bcomparing%2BWuhan%252C%2BAlpha%252C%2BDelta%2Bvarients.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="373" data-original-width="544" height="438" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QVSWOOTeG_A/YPzz_YobCcI/AAAAAAABBuA/zlA16Mx6tVse6UUul03NIe4cld5P3oCVgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h438/2021-07-25%2BHerd%2Bimmunity%2Bgraph%2Bcomparing%2BWuhan%252C%2BAlpha%252C%2BDelta%2Bvarients.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.1</b> - My annotations on graph from <a href="https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/" target="_blank">CEMB</a>, R0 figures from <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420" target="_blank">BBC News</a>] As more transmissible variants evolve, the requirements for herd immunity rises too, following this curve. The original variant would have needed only 60% of the population to be *totally* immune to the virus, in order to contain it with no other mitigations. Or 100% of the population to have received a vaccine that's 60% effective. That's against *transmission*.</div></span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Delta probably requires ~85% immunity, but adults comprise only 79% of UK's population [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1409865931636019210" target="_blank">Professor Pagel Twitter</a>]. Meaning that *all* adults and many children also need to be vaccinated (or infected) to achieve herd immunity. Evidence suggests the best current vaccines don't reduce transmission nearly enough for this, either. So non-vaccine mitigations are needed to control spread until more effective vaccines come along. Or very widespread infection, *if* that does provide greater protection, as discussed (E.1) above.<br /><br />Note: mumps has R0 of 12, measles 18, and we contain their spread, mostly through vaccination. So this should be entirely possible for Covid.</div></span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G-4q5N9gy0o/YPkvt5_AgLI/AAAAAAABBn0/t6PmMRjbxOsysqlRUp0eKOxWXkZRcrczQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-21-01-35-42-9997496.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1415" height="326" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-G-4q5N9gy0o/YPkvt5_AgLI/AAAAAAABBn0/t6PmMRjbxOsysqlRUp0eKOxWXkZRcrczQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h326/Cropper2021-07-21-01-35-42-9997496.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.2</b>] Microbes (bacteria, here) have been found to evolve improvements in their relative fitness (competitive success at existing) on an apparently never-ending basis. Even in an extremely simple, static lab environment. Graph screenshot from "<i>The Longest-Running Evolution Experiment</i>" on <span style="text-align: center;">[</span><a href="https://youtu.be/w4sLAQvEH-M?t=855" target="_blank">Veratasium, YouTube</a>].</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">So we should expect that Covid-19 will be no different; the more transmission and hosts it's incubated in, the more improvements it will evolve. It's a certainty that not controlling spread <i>will </i>create more transmissible/virulent variants. (Even before considering vaccine escape.)<br /><br />For a ballpark feel, from looking at R0 values of variants more than doubling (Original ~2.5, Alpha ~4.5 and Delta ~6.5) verses the timing of their first notable occurrences (December 2019, Sept-Dec 2020, Oct-Dec 2020), it seems like we're probably still on the early, steep part of the curve. Before it's 'knee'. Which would be bad. <br /><br />Of course rate of evolution will be proportional to number of infections, not to the passage of days, alone. And vaccines + immunity are changing the landscape for the virus quite drastically. Possibly counter-balancing the benefits of high transmissibility, favouring immune escape mutations instead, if theses are mutually exclusive. {Apparently there is no trade-off for mutations of recently emerged (zoonotic) viruses [<a href="https://twitter.com/DGBassani/status/1420133089066553346" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]!}</div></td></tr></tbody></table><p style="text-align: left;"></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UTpFP5xKef8/YP0eNCQPebI/AAAAAAABBuI/XgyLcUoiD7sHI1eLJkCoeGcpWLsUMQqCQCLcBGAsYHQ/muvxgfvf.bmp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="738" data-original-width="1800" height="262" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UTpFP5xKef8/YP0eNCQPebI/AAAAAAABBuI/XgyLcUoiD7sHI1eLJkCoeGcpWLsUMQqCQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h262/muvxgfvf.bmp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.3</b> - <a href="https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891" target="_blank">NEJM</a>] 2 dose vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection [via <a href="https://twitter.com/NEJM/status/1417956297077661700" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]:</div><div style="text-align: left;">• Pfizer (BNT162b2) - 94% vs Alpha, 88% vs Delta.<br />• AstraZeneca (<span style="text-align: center;">ChAdOx1 nCoV-19</span>) - <span style="text-align: center;">74% vs Alpha, 67% vs Delta.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;">Unknown efficacy against (asymptomatic) transmission.</span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-n4ROBgE43ro/YPlMaqcEs7I/AAAAAAABBo8/GpO_sF8mElQ94AbI8Jlbr885RjrXN1MgwCLcBGAsYHQ/E6vVfkuXEAI3Qr1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="615" data-original-width="1200" height="328" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-n4ROBgE43ro/YPlMaqcEs7I/AAAAAAABBo8/GpO_sF8mElQ94AbI8Jlbr885RjrXN1MgwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h328/E6vVfkuXEAI3Qr1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.4</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/abuttenheim/status/1417461705571983362" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] Vaccines <i>really </i>work against mortality! Comparing between the start of wave 2 (with no vaccination) and the start of this 3rd wave. Death scale normalised up by a factor of 100. But...</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-S-EYlIRwHFc/YPkzdJ0lUgI/AAAAAAABBn8/TMRA1Gfj41QkXGeUV5urMIDol_U3RnPSQCLcBGAsYHQ/E6nfMBCWQAkWS13.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1220" data-original-width="1759" height="444" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-S-EYlIRwHFc/YPkzdJ0lUgI/AAAAAAABBn8/TMRA1Gfj41QkXGeUV5urMIDol_U3RnPSQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h444/E6nfMBCWQAkWS13.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.5</b> - <a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/paimadhu/status/1416910520913965057" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] Vast swathes of the world are approximately nowhere, when it comes to vaccine roll-out (as <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html#2020-04-05" target="_blank">expected in my Part 2 blog</a>). Which means Africa, in particular, is really starting to get hammered by Delta...</td></tr></tbody></table></div><p style="text-align: left;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Ga33DT0fNNo/YP0pT7LP7iI/AAAAAAABBug/WkVyIH2qAVkANIiUbo7hTHw8rqu9mveuwCLcBGAsYHQ/E6lzVY3WYAEe4gP.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1182" data-original-width="2660" height="284" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Ga33DT0fNNo/YP0pT7LP7iI/AAAAAAABBug/WkVyIH2qAVkANIiUbo7hTHw8rqu9mveuwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h284/E6lzVY3WYAEe4gP.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.6</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805516551106562" target="_blank">John Burn-Murdoch Twitter</a>] Sideways versions of the (fig.4) graph, above. UK and Portugal deaths almost invisible, compared to previous waves (UK CFR (case fatality rate) <a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805516551106562" target="_blank">reduced 12-fold</a>). While Namibia's deaths explode, proportionately <i>higher </i>than previously. Tunisia, South Africa and other countries with low vaccination rates, also now being hit harder.</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5v6_9fWfB9w/YPk-bNR9qEI/AAAAAAABBok/ykkBjFX7HDE8ardzF-Sx2bYeyd9huywsgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-22-10-34-44-1327201.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="862" data-original-width="847" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-5v6_9fWfB9w/YPk-bNR9qEI/AAAAAAABBok/ykkBjFX7HDE8ardzF-Sx2bYeyd9huywsgCLcBGAsYHQ/w629-h640/Cropper2021-07-22-10-34-44-1327201.jpg" width="629" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> [<b>Fig.7</b> - <a href="https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=eue&areas=isr&areas=nld&areas=jpn&cumulative=1&doses=total&populationAdjusted=1" target="_blank">Financial Times, 2021-07-22</a>] <br /><div style="text-align: left;">• EU counties vaccinating as fast as UK's impressive program, just under 2 months behind.</div><div style="text-align: left;">• US apparently struggling to reach high uptake, with vaccine hesitancy. But n<span style="text-align: center;">ote that various counties will have used more or less of single/double dose vaccines, so raw numbers not entirely comparable.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;">• Israel apparently stopped at just 60% of their population (all Pfizer), with a far bigger child population demographic than UK, etc. They recently started including teens too.<br />• Japan struggled even more to get started, but again, trajectory is now the same as other leading nations. But low population immunity a worry for Olympic games. </div></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LJdI1leaGHM/YPlMjtpKxhI/AAAAAAABBpA/-FgxD5wUFtUa-Jfl043K9fdiaYEcDEDfwCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-22%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2BUk%2Bvaccination%2Bdoses%2Bby%2Bage%2Bgroup%2B%2528fri%2Bbefore%2Bre-opening%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="657" data-original-width="879" height="478" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LJdI1leaGHM/YPlMjtpKxhI/AAAAAAABBpA/-FgxD5wUFtUa-Jfl043K9fdiaYEcDEDfwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h478/2021-07-22%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2BUk%2Bvaccination%2Bdoses%2Bby%2Bage%2Bgroup%2B%2528fri%2Bbefore%2Bre-opening%2529.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.8</b> <a href="https://youtu.be/x-aNWjXOx5M?t=1319" target="_blank">Indie SAGE YouTube</a> 2021-07-16] We are approaching full coverage of adults, to be fair. But note there are 4 age groups missing from the left, of kids who aren't vaccinated at all, yet are still vulnerable and contagious. Ignoring this has allowed government to use more reassuring percentages for vaccination program (implicitly stated for adults only).</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jbNuaHbpkMA/YPlN2xTVxkI/AAAAAAABBpQ/aUUwOBEsMSo17vXe4VTILK6uklueCj1zgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-22%2BVaccine%2Bdoes%2Bper%2Bday%2B%2528up%2Bto%2Bfri%2Bbefore%2Breopening%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="655" data-original-width="876" height="478" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jbNuaHbpkMA/YPlN2xTVxkI/AAAAAAABBpQ/aUUwOBEsMSo17vXe4VTILK6uklueCj1zgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h478/2021-07-22%2BVaccine%2Bdoes%2Bper%2Bday%2B%2528up%2Bto%2Bfri%2Bbefore%2Breopening%2529.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.9</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/x-aNWjXOx5M?t=1216" target="_blank">Indie SAGE YouTube</a> 2021-07-16] It seems like vaccine uptake has been falling off for the last month. Hesitancy about possible side effects, from some under 30, is probably a significant factor, e.g. regarding fertility [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/24/under-30s-reluctant-to-take-covid-vaccine-cite-fertility-and-side-effect-concerns?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3d3oaxKMGKyqq47CZ0u8V7L-4W-gQ-ZTD9Hw3CAtY78fVrn1vQxpVJ9cA" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Along with Government's mixed messaging implying young adults are virtually immune from consequences. But there's also much talk of the initial Pfizer supply (40Mn doses) being used up.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-O2vvVOZADhA/YPk0_W1ZWHI/AAAAAAABBoE/4KD5w_ZsrtM_1Nmjcyd6I8iHhXyGeuC2wCLcBGAsYHQ/E5dTHp_XMAABb4K.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="1488" height="360" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-O2vvVOZADhA/YPk0_W1ZWHI/AAAAAAABBoE/4KD5w_ZsrtM_1Nmjcyd6I8iHhXyGeuC2wCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/E5dTHp_XMAABb4K.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.10</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1411688410943733761" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] As vaccinated older generations face greatly reduced chance of needing hospital, the relative share of hospitalisations has shifted decisively younger. Over 50% are now under 50 years old, compared to under 20% near the start of vaccine program. Which is not so bad, overall, provided cases don't keep rising. <br /><br />Version of graph scaled by absolute case numbers, shows average hospitalised age slide down from 65 to under 50, across the same time period [<a href="https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1411688419844100106" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-C7oes79snL4/YPkuXn9OaMI/AAAAAAABBns/y4QrsNmWnM4CGF8LYGfBNyTlvEIiElCXwCLcBGAsYHQ/E6l8-Z_XoAE_nxU.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1317" data-original-width="2048" height="412" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-C7oes79snL4/YPkuXn9OaMI/AAAAAAABBns/y4QrsNmWnM4CGF8LYGfBNyTlvEIiElCXwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h412/E6l8-Z_XoAE_nxU.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.11</b> - <span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1416805569122426888" target="_blank">John Burn-Murdoch, Twitter</a>] </span>Netherlands (an extremely similar country to the UK) recently had a similar kind of national re-opening, which inverted their falling case numbers into an extremely steep rise, doubling every 2 days! Triggering a major revision of this policy, curbing transmission, and a (sort of) apology from their government.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="881" data-original-width="860" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QHUcZR_zzHc/YPk8BbCGw6I/AAAAAAABBoY/nANQTkY2sWgtn9BabpigjgC5FxRnjg1wwCLcBGAsYHQ/w624-h640/Cropper2021-07-22-10-35-36-6498090.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;" width="624" /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.12</b> - <a href="https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=gbr&areas=eur&areas=isr&areas=nld&areas=jpn&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&areasRegional=usmi&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases">Financial Times, 2021-07-22</a> ] It seems like many EU countries, US and Israel have also struggled with on/off control measures. But most recently, moving into mid-summer, with high levels of vaccination in all of these, only Netherlands and UK have really spiked cases, by relaxing control measures. Japan may be substantially under-testing.</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Re3sTXd4IxA/YPvPE5vt5lI/AAAAAAABBts/_ejmDgYy6gUZJ-M0Dzly0pUYTFlddXZ5QCLcBGAsYHQ/112259300_r_alert_level_v4_640-nc.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="640" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Re3sTXd4IxA/YPvPE5vt5lI/AAAAAAABBts/_ejmDgYy6gUZJ-M0Dzly0pUYTFlddXZ5QCLcBGAsYHQ/w388-h400/112259300_r_alert_level_v4_640-nc.png" width="388" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;"><span style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.13</b> - <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52634739" target="_blank">BBC News</a>] Government's own alert level system currently reads a 4 for "<i>Stage of outbreak</i>", but the measures have been relaxed more than level 2. Reference above for (D.2).</div></span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both;"><br /></div></div></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0X-06Cr_Mhk/YPlMt-obPUI/AAAAAAABBpI/o-O7tQDane4T-4wd2TFiHIwrYK9M5nZMQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-22%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2B-%2Bschool%2Bkids%2Babsent%2Bfor%2Bcovid%2B%2528fri%2Bbefore%2Bre-opening%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="874" height="478" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0X-06Cr_Mhk/YPlMt-obPUI/AAAAAAABBpI/o-O7tQDane4T-4wd2TFiHIwrYK9M5nZMQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h478/2021-07-22%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2B-%2Bschool%2Bkids%2Babsent%2Bfor%2Bcovid%2B%2528fri%2Bbefore%2Bre-opening%2529.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.14</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/x-aNWjXOx5M?t=722" target="_blank">Indie SAGE YouTube</a> 2021-07-16] The role of schools for transmission between school age children is very clear, here, dropping right off during holidays. Over 1Mn pupils (14% of total) missed school due to Covid or self isolating as a contact, in this last week.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9lAMlurUIX8/YP09A-hqCPI/AAAAAAABBu8/-3APMWt3rU82kkX9lHAfgO2Xau8ZoNsmQCLcBGAsYHQ/E6vq3N3XsAcrueS.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1180" data-original-width="1462" height="517" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-9lAMlurUIX8/YP09A-hqCPI/AAAAAAABBu8/-3APMWt3rU82kkX9lHAfgO2Xau8ZoNsmQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h517/E6vq3N3XsAcrueS.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.15</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417513516773351427" target="_blank">Deepti Guardasani Twitter</a>] The <i>enormous </i>scope of Long-Covid incidence! 20% still have a symptom a month after first infection, with apparent asymptote at ~12%, after 3 months. The control participates are those who did not test positive via PCR, in this ONS study of a randomise representational sample of over 300k people across the UK. Their decisively lower symptom reports clearly dismiss the notion (of psycho-somatic theories) that lockdowns and anxiety are causing such symptoms.</td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qwmF9Q3A68M/YP0_4N2TVbI/AAAAAAABBvE/-gt7-IS4ycEbQDQiggs0TC8urXSW-qEBACLcBGAsYHQ/E6v4SnhWEAYU7B5.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1076" data-original-width="2322" height="296" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qwmF9Q3A68M/YP0_4N2TVbI/AAAAAAABBvE/-gt7-IS4ycEbQDQiggs0TC8urXSW-qEBACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h296/E6v4SnhWEAYU7B5.jpg" width="640" /></a><br /></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.16</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417513553540616192" target="_blank">Deepti Guardasani Twitter</a>] The REACT-1 study (over 500k people sampled) shows that it's not just individual minor nuisance symptoms, as 20% of Covid cases had 3 or more symptoms, 12 weeks after.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><br /><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RGngha4BE4U/YP1C4QUTrNI/AAAAAAABBvU/XEp-uxr9J8Qs3H5rUoAs1oJ40G5GYkPOACLcBGAsYHQ/E6vz7_QXIAAEAG1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1778" data-original-width="1498" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-RGngha4BE4U/YP1C4QUTrNI/AAAAAAABBvU/XEp-uxr9J8Qs3H5rUoAs1oJ40G5GYkPOACLcBGAsYHQ/w539-h640/E6vz7_QXIAAEAG1.jpg" width="539" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: justify;"><span style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.17</b> - ONS via </span><a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417513534351675400" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">Deepti Guardasani Twitter</a><span style="text-align: left;">] Over 1Mn people in UK currently affected by long running symptoms, 2/3rds saying it impacted their day-to day activity, 400k symptomatic for over 1 year...</span></div><span style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">The full [<a href="https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1417513507935948810" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] thread is a really good summary of many other aspects of the health burdens following Covid infection. And note (again), that Long Covid incidence is not associated with symptom severity, so medical research experts, like Danny Altman, see no good evidence to suggest vaccinated cases should expect lower chance of lasting illness.</div></span></td></tr></tbody></table><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2XFdKl9wc6g/YPvCqH5zGXI/AAAAAAABBtg/oqzpeWgDo2AObYi1KkRlPNhk63id0gI1gCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-24%2BCovid%2Bcognitive%2Bdeficits%2B%2528fig.2%2529%2BLancet.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="496" data-original-width="715" height="444" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2XFdKl9wc6g/YPvCqH5zGXI/AAAAAAABBtg/oqzpeWgDo2AObYi1KkRlPNhk63id0gI1gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h444/2021-07-24%2BCovid%2Bcognitive%2Bdeficits%2B%2528fig.2%2529%2BLancet.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: right;"><span style="text-align: left;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.18</b> - <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext#seccesectitle0013" target="_blank">EClinicalMedicine</a>]<span style="text-align: right;"> Referenced above (B.6) - average cognitive deficit by Covid severity. An SD of -1 would be equivalent to -15 IQ points. This was sampled from the 80k participants of the </span>Great British Intelligence Test (Jan to Dec 2020). Cognitive impairment <span style="text-align: right;">is for all cases, not just Long-Covid patients, who I'd expect would be a lot less likely to participate, the more severe their brain fog and cognitive symptoms (a bias towards under-estimating overall impact via this opportunistic study).</span></div></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-CzebWoASV8E/YP0fZdFkH7I/AAAAAAABBuQ/7YNHJw16RDwPVIssDn5LWAvJ6HZLMVYwQCLcBGAsYHQ/txtpgk9k.bmp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="446" data-original-width="680" height="420" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-CzebWoASV8E/YP0fZdFkH7I/AAAAAAABBuQ/7YNHJw16RDwPVIssDn5LWAvJ6HZLMVYwQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h420/txtpgk9k.bmp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.19</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/HuwRFWalters/status/1417896246782697474" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] "<i>Nursing pay has fallen </i>[around] <i>10% in 10 years</i>." Yet government is only reluctantly offering a 3% pay rise, which may equate to a relative cut, if inflation hits predicted 3.7%, and which excludes (already hard done by) junior doctors <span style="text-align: center;">[</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jul/21/government-offers-nhs-staff-in-england-3-pay-rise" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. It may also mean taking money away from other parts of the health budget, with no mention of extra funding. Clearly there's no interests in mitigating NHS staff burnout, let alone giving fair compensation for an horrendously harder job, during the pandemic.</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-SgCLtI7cbRQ/YP7RSDQRMLI/AAAAAAABBvo/jN337Y4CC6oAVdTN3LwwuSAP-lWUr5P4gCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-26-16-07-20-6344338.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1052" data-original-width="1596" height="422" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-SgCLtI7cbRQ/YP7RSDQRMLI/AAAAAAABBvo/jN337Y4CC6oAVdTN3LwwuSAP-lWUr5P4gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h422/Cropper2021-07-26-16-07-20-6344338.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.20</b> - <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993427/S1289_Imperial_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf" target="_blank">Government Modelling by <span style="text-align: center;">Imperial College London</span></a>] This paper is presumably what persuaded Johnson to postpone re-opening by 4 weeks (from Jun 21st to July 19th). Dropping from the apocalyptic blue curve, down below the pink, closer to the yellow (which was modelled for 26th July). In any case (barring delay until December) the peak in infections is expected to significantly exceed the winter wave.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br />The 9 graphs show optimistic, middle and pessimistic cases for both transmissibility and immune escape (huge unknowns).Given the delayed opening, they appear to have been expecting, from this modelling, over: 125k to 500k cases <i>per day</i> (mid 375k). All well above the daily case rate last winter, and far more than the "<i>100k per day</i>" I've heard them warning about in the media! Hospitalisations expected to be substantially reduced, of course, at roughly half up to 2 times above the winter peak.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">[<i>Continuing from (C.10), above...</i>] Whitty claimed the modelling showed very little difference in detrimental effects, dependant on time (month) of reopening. But the paper itself repeatedly emphasises <i>huge </i>uncertainties, depending on it's many assumptions [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/993427/S1289_Imperial_Roadmap_Step_4.pdf" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>]. These include continued transmissions controls (like mask wearing) plus test-trace-isolate and good hand hygiene; continuing vaccination rate of 2M doses a day (which has actually dropped off a lot); no booster shots; no vaccination of teenagers ever modelled; high protection against any infection; many other aspects. </div><p style="text-align: left;">Whitty also later made fairly stark warnings, in separate statements: with the 100k cases per day (touted by Javid), that long-Covid increases (in kids) will be a serious problem [<a href="https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen/status/1412475841699852292" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], and we could need lockdown in 5 weeks, if wave doesn't top out [<a href="https://youtu.be/mmCd8BdPJik?t=42" target="_blank">Sun YouTube</a>].</p></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yUyr2ryhGqU/YQH3TmiVdQI/AAAAAAABB1o/F2pEe-p-KIUCoHBeCqdYicAgH45Q1YMNgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-29%2BUK%2527s%2BEuros%2BFootball%2Bcovid%2Bboost%2Bgrapsh.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="2048" data-original-width="1743" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yUyr2ryhGqU/YQH3TmiVdQI/AAAAAAABB1o/F2pEe-p-KIUCoHBeCqdYicAgH45Q1YMNgCLcBGAsYHQ/w545-h640/2021-07-29%2BUK%2527s%2BEuros%2BFootball%2Bcovid%2Bboost%2Bgrapsh.jpg" width="545" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.21</b>] Football!<br />• Top [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cb86d9a8-665d-467e-9b92-4b80e905060c" target="_blank">FT</a>] - subtracting female cases from males, shows a signature of more guys meeting up in person to watch the "Euro 2020" tournament in pubs, homes (and the stadium), as the England team progressed to the finals.</div><div style="text-align: left;">• Bottom [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/surge-covid-cases-among-english-24546468" target="_blank">Mirror</a>] - for overall context of case numbers, the number of cases by age group and gender for the week up to the 16th July.</div></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2FGaDdu3Xhg/YQLa45Tz2-I/AAAAAAABB3c/W-otiXcWSqwmrsqPCe-etGZXtdHdcSZqwCLcBGAsYHQ/E7NtuoeXoAQfrGM.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1076" data-original-width="1920" height="358" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2FGaDdu3Xhg/YQLa45Tz2-I/AAAAAAABB3c/W-otiXcWSqwmrsqPCe-etGZXtdHdcSZqwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h358/E7NtuoeXoAQfrGM.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption">[<b>Fig.22</b> <a href="https://twitter.com/Stop_Pneumonia/status/1419606855467294721" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] The global south now broadly struggling with overwhelmed hospital provisions. With more infection variants, much less vaccination (and winter in the southern hemisphere).</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-u8_Pbyk22EE/YQLc4eeWJkI/AAAAAAABB3k/ALQyF_lEC7giRA9MbxWKQ5Bj-Tqgt_rGACLcBGAsYHQ/E7cAjaqWUAIeBzq.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1197" data-original-width="1720" height="446" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-u8_Pbyk22EE/YQLc4eeWJkI/AAAAAAABB3k/ALQyF_lEC7giRA9MbxWKQ5Bj-Tqgt_rGACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h446/E7cAjaqWUAIeBzq.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.23</b> - <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkBoslough/status/1420604843966746625/photo/1" target="_blank">Twitter</a> via <a href="https://boingboing.net/2021/07/29/trump-voting-states-are-experiencing-new-covid-cases-at-a-much-higher-rate-than-biden-states.html" target="_blank">Boing Boing</a>] As Delta now dominates the US, there' currently a strong association between high cases in the states voting Trump. With lower vaccine (and mitigation) uptake, where more have bought into Covid misinformation and Republican governors have previously banned officials from cajoling people into getting vaccinated. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YjVlZq9y9Qo/YQLh3c7WICI/AAAAAAABB3s/0oifx3Ja67Ezdq8jUO_wVkkGkd1TM9BTQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-29-18-05-22-1165535.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="598" data-original-width="766" height="501" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-YjVlZq9y9Qo/YQLh3c7WICI/AAAAAAABB3s/0oifx3Ja67Ezdq8jUO_wVkkGkd1TM9BTQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h501/Cropper2021-07-29-18-05-22-1165535.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>[<b>Fig.24 - </b><a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fc3db449-b312-4d1d-8acd-58cee1bce594" target="_blank">FT</a>]<b><br /></b><br />The case rise has been scary enough that a whole bunch of prominent Republicans, and even Fox News(!), suddenly changed their tune, last week, now very explicitly recommending vaccination to their supporters [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/fc3db449-b312-4d1d-8acd-58cee1bce594" target="_blank">FT</a>]. Although, false beliefs are notoriously impossible to correct. So there's no way US will reach herd immunity by Vaccinations alone, now. A lot more infections to come, I expect. Far worst than UK. Maybe Long-Covid will even become a core Republican party issue...?</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="I"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄I► 2021-07-30 Re-opening drop in cases! What does it mean?:<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Have my 6000+ words, above, been threating over nothing? Certainly, I was expecting to see an uptick in cases, not this decisive drop... But this has surprised everyone, including the government, who pushed through re-opening <i>despite </i>their modellers predicting continued and increased growth in Covid cases. So what's happened here, was I wrong about <i>everything</i>? (Spoiler: no.):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2U0-UKQpd1w/YQQcbhbtBXI/AAAAAAABB6U/kfaopNR8wdENd-ypmE6yxaEcX-1-PpisACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-30%2BUK%2Bcase%2Bnumbers%2Bup%2Bto%2B2021-07-30%2B%2528Indie%2BSAGE%252C%2B%252B%2Bannotation%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1013" data-original-width="1387" height="468" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-2U0-UKQpd1w/YQQcbhbtBXI/AAAAAAABB6U/kfaopNR8wdENd-ypmE6yxaEcX-1-PpisACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h468/2021-07-30%2BUK%2Bcase%2Bnumbers%2Bup%2Bto%2B2021-07-30%2B%2528Indie%2BSAGE%252C%2B%252B%2Bannotation%2529.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.25</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=274" target="_blank">Professor Pagel, Independent SAGE YouTube</a>, plus my annotation in red.]</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">By the Friday after the Monday re-opening, we were already evaluating many possible reasons why we were seeing a dip in cases e.g. [<a href="https://twitter.com/Kit_Yates_Maths/status/1418483565625479168" target="_blank">Kit Yates Twitter</a>]. Then e.g. [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cb86d9a8-665d-467e-9b92-4b80e905060c" target="_blank">FT</a>] on 26th. A split between actually reductions and under-reporting. All of these were revisited (some with evidence, now) by Professor Pagel in today's Independent SAGE briefing, with reasons summarised here (24 minutes in) [<a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=1444" target="_blank">YouTube</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><b>(1) It's not herd immunity (alone)</b> - the drop in cases is too steep, when an immunity-only decline would look like a plateaux with slow falloff. All regions of England have dropped exactly in sync, too, despite varying degrees of vaccination and immunity that will split the timing of this effect kicking in.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(2) Cases are rising again</b> - in the last 3 days, across all regions. This is closely in line with the expected 7 day delay in effect of reducing mitigations. The drop had already started, a couple days <i>before </i>re-opening, and it's obviously due to various other reasons.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(3) Decline exaggerated</b> - by reduced testing. Due to:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Preventative school testing halting for summer holidays.<br />• Some people less diligent about getting symptoms tested, given 'freedom day' rhetoric.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Some avoiding testing, to ensure a positive result doesn't cancel vacation plans.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The true incidence probably only plateaued and fell a little, as seen in data from the [<a href="https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/uk-cases-stop-rising" target="_blank">Zoe</a>] app (graph directly below). This infers new cases retrospectively via symptom reporting, so lags <i>slightly.</i> It will likely see a <i>little </i>more of a drop, but not as much.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The weekly [<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/30july2021" target="_blank">ONS</a>] report, that samples randomly (and so avoids biases from changes in testing behaviour) showed plateauing: only a small increase in cases up to 24th July (1 week ago). Estimating ~860k people in the UK currently Covid positive. But this uses PCR tests, which detect infections for a longer time period. So it smears out apparent peaks more broadly. So it also hints of at a real terms decline, but probably not as substantial as official data.<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QgjHqlyhbbU/YQQeYunxnbI/AAAAAAABB6g/sVHrlXrut7Yl54-wBawmW52QwKUTgc_3QCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-30%2BUK%2BZoe%2Bvs%2BPHE%252C%2B11%2Bdays%2Bpost-Freedom.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1002" data-original-width="1119" height="573" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QgjHqlyhbbU/YQQeYunxnbI/AAAAAAABB6g/sVHrlXrut7Yl54-wBawmW52QwKUTgc_3QCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h573/2021-07-30%2BUK%2BZoe%2Bvs%2BPHE%252C%2B11%2Bdays%2Bpost-Freedom.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.26</b> - <a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=1251" target="_blank">YouTube</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(4) True infection decline</b> - contributing factors:<br /><br />• Case and contact <b>isolation of school children</b> reached over 1Mn pupils, by the end of term. Over 25% of all pupils in Northern regions, where cases have been highest. This will have slowed spread.<br /><br />• '<b>Pingdemic</b>' - will have been doing its job, to some extent, isolating infections and reducing overall social contact. App isolation notifications continued to rise in the week up to the 24th, too. To their highest level to date [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-57970603?at_medium=custom7&at_custom4=F5CAB66C-F057-11EB-94F9-1F1E0EDC252D&at_custom1=%5Bpost+type%5D&at_custom3=BBC+News&at_custom2=facebook_page&at_campaign=64&fbclid=IwAR1k55XpCYuokSiVDlrd-gGRQU4bMRcYnpkvCHNhsT7IsE4DOUcWE0UoiV8" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. Despite positive cases dropping over this time period. Presumably this indicates a significant lag in reporting of test results and tracing of contacts...?</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• <b>Football ended</b> - with it's bonus cases from (predominantly) men watching together in pubs and homes (as shown in Fig.21 graphs, above). The SAGE briefing showed [<a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=957" target="_blank">YouTube</a>] that men also less likely to test (and report positives) than women. Disproportionately more women testing positive over the winter peak, contrasted with more (particularly younger) men during this summer peak. That is probably what accounts from the pre-peak discrepancies, with the Zoe cases separating to higher levels than official testing numbers (above).<br /><br />• <b>Elevated caution</b> - among many of the population, in the face of exponentially growing cases and, of course, Johnson's over-confident re-opening verses warnings from experts. Or rather, just sustained caution, for the most part. With ~70% of people surveyed, intending to continue sanitising hands, self isolating if necessary, wearing masks in shops and public transport, avoiding crowded places [ONS, via <a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=1090" target="_blank">YouTube</a>]. Although <50% of under 30s on these last two, so they'll continue to drive cases. But maybe their high incidence of past infection will help to mitigate cases more than with other age groups.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• <b>Heat wave</b> - very hot weather over this period, too, will have moved social activities outside and to more ventilated conditions. I don't know how much it could have actually killed the virus, in aerosol form. Given that we now know surface droplets aren't as significant a vector, so sunlight/temperature disinfection of surfaces won't help as much. And certainly outbreaks (of Delta) have been sustained in hot climates. People's vitamin D levels will be nearing their peak, too, helping to mitigate viral replication. The seasonal swing in R0 is modelled as a 10% reduction (from winter to summer). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>• <b>92%</b> of the <i>adult </i>population of England & Wales have some protective <b>antibodies</b>, as of the end of June [<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021" target="_blank">ONS</a>, via <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cb86d9a8-665d-467e-9b92-4b80e905060c" target="_blank">FT</a>]. Of course, these are mostly from vaccination; as of today, only 6Mn <i>UK </i>adults are yet to receive their first dose [<a href="https://youtu.be/kQJ9Abs6AuE?t=136" target="_blank">YouTube</a>]. Out of a total 56.5Mn adult population, that's just over 10%. The extra couple percent are from infections, alone. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">To be clear, this survey excludes all children, ~21% UK population [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1409865928221904905" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], few of whom have been vaccinated. Even more significantly, vaccines have a fairly low effectiveness against (mild) infection from Delta. And anti-bodies to infection by previous variants are also less neutralising and seem to wane in strength more quickly than from vaccines. So population immunity will be a *lot* lower than 90% (closer to 50%-60%, or maybe lower for transmission of Delta, specifically).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5) Pessimistic modelling</b> - The Imperial College SAGE projections may have been the most pessimistic, in expecting a higher peak in cases than Warwick's modelling (produced slightly later), or other sources [<a href="https://twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1419696364125106177" target="_blank">James Ward Twitter</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><br /></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(6) We should expect</b> - a sustained rise in cases, now. Softened (maybe a lot) by summer school holidays. But strengthened by the public being shown lots of graphs of rapidly falling case numbers, over the last week or so. Emboldening behaviour. And we should expect to see more artefacts of this self-aware feedback loop on behaviour: a series of hills to pass, over the next few months [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/26/when-england-peak-covid-infections-trajectory-pandemic?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. Cases rising until population immunity causes them to plateau, with declines leading to further relaxation of cautious behaviours. Rinse and repeat.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">That is, unless something dramatic happens, like new variants hits hard and demands a re-imposition of top-down measures. For example, there's the slightest hint of a possibly unidentified variant fuelling growth in northern England [<a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/1421124192079073283" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. But imported variants seem more likely, overall, especially given the easing of border controls to exclude the need for US and EU travellers to quarantine [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57999362" target="_blank">BBC</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(7) 2021-08-03 Update</b> - Official cases continued to drop rapidly, after that small upwards blip. New hospitalisations also peaked and began to fall with a similar pattern so far. Zoe data still shows a far less steep drop. So we're still waiting to see how fast cases are truly falling, but it seems clear that they are not going to rise sharply, for now.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xtkRJHYplvM/YQm2nTrrgDI/AAAAAAABCHc/ofYwzYI6NlIbc_Q9L_wT9euZW_iUQrBBwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-03-21-46-43-6462581.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="607" data-original-width="995" height="390" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-xtkRJHYplvM/YQm2nTrrgDI/AAAAAAABCHc/ofYwzYI6NlIbc_Q9L_wT9euZW_iUQrBBwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h390/Cropper2021-08-03-21-46-43-6462581.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.27</b> - <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Which leaves us still revaluating "why?". All the above points still apply, including the public still mostly being just as cautious, or maybe more so (compared to during Football fever). But also, I think it seems increasingly likely that schools were driving cases far more strongly than anyone expected. Having been used to the previous variants, where kids were less susceptible to infection and caused less transmission. That's no longer as true with Delta. Kids also virtually entirely unvaccinated, whereas young adults, now back in night clubs and pubs, have a significant amount of vaccine immunity. On top of their higher rates (than other demographics) of past infection based immunity.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br />I think that's why the Netherlands saw such a steep rise, on their reopening, by comparison: their young adults had almost no vaccine immunity. At that point they were still catching up with UK (rapidly). And this is also why the US is about to be in an <i>even worst</i> position than currently, given their schools are due to go back soon. Although they have vaccinated millions of school aged kids.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Mhgpv4z7ZgE/YQsrs7YfK4I/AAAAAAABCKA/2Go3Le4AG9ozNvASr00jsWvvjpOIuFsZQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-05%2BPHE%2Bcovid%2B%2528week%2B30%2Breport%2529%2Bcases%2Bnursey%2Bto%2B39%2Byo.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1019" height="510" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Mhgpv4z7ZgE/YQsrs7YfK4I/AAAAAAABCKA/2Go3Le4AG9ozNvASr00jsWvvjpOIuFsZQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h510/2021-08-05%2BPHE%2Bcovid%2B%2528week%2B30%2Breport%2529%2Bcases%2Bnursey%2Bto%2B39%2Byo.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.28a</b> <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007251/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W30.pdf" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>] PHE week 30 report on flu and Covid (a little hard to make out). This Delta wave, cases among primary school (orange line) and secondary school (green line) kids have been significantly higher.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">However, this is roughly in line with the increased testing rate for primary school children (graph below). So some/most of the increase in that age range <i>may </i>be accounted for in that increased testing. Secondary school case increases exceed that a little more. And Fig.14 (way above) showed how much more quickly the number of pupils off school, for Covid/contacts, was growing after May/June half term, compared to before.<br /><br />College/university students (black line) have a significantly higher case rate, still. Also significantly higher than 20-29s, despite a very similar rate of testing as the overall population. So it's probable that (post-16) higher education was driving cases even more. With Uni end of term, plus A-level and GCSE exam years, finishing a little before schools. In fitting with the (marginally) pre-re-opening downturn in overall cases.</div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VbBzzJdoSC0/YQss65199mI/AAAAAAABCKI/y9JYf8uUMGclxX1XrYPVnj7rezQcuV7MQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-05%2BPHE%2Bcovid%2B%2528week%2B30%2Breport%2529%2Btesting%2Brate%252C%2Bnursey%2Bto%2Byear%2B6.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="817" data-original-width="1239" height="422" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VbBzzJdoSC0/YQss65199mI/AAAAAAABCKI/y9JYf8uUMGclxX1XrYPVnj7rezQcuV7MQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h422/2021-08-05%2BPHE%2Bcovid%2B%2528week%2B30%2Breport%2529%2Btesting%2Brate%252C%2Bnursey%2Bto%2Byear%2B6.png" width="640" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">[<b>Fig.28b -</b> <a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1007251/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W30.pdf" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>] Testing rate by age groups. To better interpret raw numbers from previous graph.</div> </td></tr></tbody></table>So, maybe our case rates will follow a saddle shape, rising again in September when schools return (probably without substantial mitigations or notable vaccinations). Maybe we'll get little bumps in the downward tread before that, if people are relaxing more.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="J"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>◄J► 2021-08-14 Further clarifications:</b></span><br /><br />Cases and hospitalisations continue to hold at a high level, after only a small decline in admissions. In fact, it looks like cases continue to grow on a linear trend, upon which the Euro 2020 football peak sits neatly:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Fi_-58eb7tQ/YRfp87Yt5LI/AAAAAAABChE/zkMFuHxJnhsb7p0wIPZwFqmrzL7TqA9zACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-08-14%2BUK%2BCovid%2Bcases%2Bvs%2Badmissions.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="502" data-original-width="827" height="388" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Fi_-58eb7tQ/YRfp87Yt5LI/AAAAAAABChE/zkMFuHxJnhsb7p0wIPZwFqmrzL7TqA9zACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h388/2021-08-14%2BUK%2BCovid%2Bcases%2Bvs%2Badmissions.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.29</b>] Official figures downloaded from <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases" target="_blank">coronavirus.data.gov.uk</a> and graphed in Google Sheets, with dotted trend line added in Google Draw. Also shows that vaccinations have reduced hospital admissions by a factor of ~3x, relative to cases.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It's also now clear that the public really was mostly unmoved by the rhetoric of final step reopening. Previous relaxations had a much bigger impact on indoor socialising. Which coincided with the start of the ongoing rise (above):</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-afW4I_KDgj4/YRfOQVQL61I/AAAAAAABCg4/G8b_MobEfns3HUSM3hZqEfiFZo8-oz2QwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-08-14-14-55-43-9057186.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="548" data-original-width="862" height="406" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-afW4I_KDgj4/YRfOQVQL61I/AAAAAAABCg4/G8b_MobEfns3HUSM3hZqEfiFZo8-oz2QwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h406/Cropper2021-08-14-14-55-43-9057186.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: left;">[<b>Fig.30</b> - <a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/lifestyle" target="_blank">ONS</a> via <a href="https://youtu.be/OQCwJfEh5Ds?t=1061" target="_blank">Independent SAGE YouTube</a>] There was only a small uptick of people socialising indoors after the July 19th "Freedom Day" (Step 4 relaxation), barely rising above outdoors for the first time this year. The much bigger transition happened in mid May, in line with easing of Step 3 restrictions. Those meeting indoors shot up from 10% to 50%. So it's no surprise case rate climb has been ongoing since that point. </td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="K"></a><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;">◄K► Calculating Population Immunity - Continues in <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/08/covid-19-part-6-calculating-uks.html" target="_blank">Part 6</a>...</span></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-45988682586368558802021-07-17T22:21:00.012+01:002021-07-18T22:57:50.048+01:00"Permutation City" by Greg Egan - Review & Discussion<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-46FIPwN2I80/YO8DlT83oPI/AAAAAAABBP0/E0fGxhAjplsykyyiCCOMS6SCsZ0C3fzDgCLcBGAsYHQ/51kSu79kFtL.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img align="right" alt="" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="325" height="320" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-46FIPwN2I80/YO8DlT83oPI/AAAAAAABBP0/E0fGxhAjplsykyyiCCOMS6SCsZ0C3fzDgCLcBGAsYHQ/w208-h320/51kSu79kFtL.jpg" width="208" /></a></div><a href="https://www.gregegan.net/" target="_blank">Egan</a> is famous for his very high concept hard sci-fi fiction that leverages his academic background in mathematics plus deep knowledge of quantum physics and computer science. <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/15796130-permutation-city" target="_blank">Permutation City</a> is no exception, exploring an even broader scope of fascinating concepts than <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/156780.Schild_s_Ladder" target="_blank">Schild's Ladder</a>, which I'd read years ago.<div><br /></div><div>It's one in a set of 3 novels, by him, grouped together as "<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/series/160715-subjective-cosmology" target="_blank">subjective cosmology</a>". But they're not linked in any way besides this categorisation of theme.<br /><div><br /></div><div>It pushes far beyond hand waving philosophy, weaving in some solid technical references, as it explores concepts of: continuity of identity, simulation of consciousness, extreme transhumanist mind modification, subjective reality, artificial life within deterministic systems, computability, parasitic computation and "dust theory". Many ideas I consider important to at least be vaguely aware of.</div><div><div><br /></div><div>His characters are adequately believable and his writing style reasonably sophisticated. Although my attention/motivation struggles a little, these days, with this kind of classic novel structure: alternating chapters between several characters, telling a story largely in parallel.</div><div><br /></div><span><a name='more'></a></span><div>Despite being published in 1994, 27 years ago(!), his 2045 and 2050 Earth settings still feel plausible. No glaring futurism details that failed to transpire. There is kind of an absence of smart/mobile phones, but not really.</div><div><br /></div><div>The use of centralised computer servers, for (extreme) processing power, might echo back to a time before the personal computer boom. But it actually fits fine with contemporary cloud computing, in 2021; our consumer electronics increasingly pushing towards Egan's "terminals". Even for the highly response dependant application of game rendering, with Google's Stadia and Amazon Games (which <a href="https://www.denofgeek.com/games/why-google-stadia-amazon-games-failed/" target="_blank">are admittedly struggling</a>, but for other reasons, perhaps).</div></div><div><br /></div><div>There was one particular instance, that bothered me, were Egan knowingly contradicted a certainty of computer science. He explains, in <a href="https://www.gregegan.net/PERMUTATION/FAQ/FAQ.html" target="_blank">an FAQ on his website</a>, that this is for the sake of a simpler (more approachable) narrative. But it's not possible to discuss this, or other details, without some big plot spoilers...<br /><br />So in terms of basic review, I'll just say that this is a recommendation from me - it lived up to it's reputation.</div><div><br /><br /><b>► Specific Discussions [BIG SPOILERS!]:</b><br /><br />• <b>Parts </b>- The book is split into halves. I didn't even want to allude to this, above, because merely knowing the setting of the second part means that Paul Durham was correct and successful in his (highly questionable!) aims, during part 1. </div><div><br /></div><div>They succeed in sending scans of their brains, along with a conscious digital instance of his mind, to a simulation of reality running on a "TVC" (Turing, von Neuman, Chiang - a fictional computer scientist) cellular automata universe, that computes itself into existence, somewhere in the "dust". Forming an ever expanding substrate to run a simulation of a communal city, various private domains, and an entire planet with evolving artificial life using fully deterministic physics.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Digital hell</b> - One of the private sections is apparently dedicated to personal torment, for a guilt ridden German billionaire. I found his backstory and self torture a little tiresome, to be honest. But simulated suffering is a potentially cosmological scale moral hazard that's increasingly important to think about, going forwards. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's likely that bad actors will, at some point, command the computing resources to torture digital consciousness (re)creations in complete secret. Maybe even incidentally, or accidentally, once computing reaches unimaginable scale, in the mid-future. Even without something a dreadful as Roko's Basilisk being realised. </div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>2045 setting</b>: Perhaps coincidence, but was he inspired by Kurzweil's futurism predictions for the Technological Singularity occurring around this date? Back was that timeline the same in the end of his "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Intelligent_Machines" target="_blank">Age of Intelligent Machines</a>", as with the 2045 date featured of his 2005 tome "The Singularity is Near)?</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Slowdown factor: </b>It's interesting that Egan has his 2045 simulated minds all running at a rate significantly *<i>slower</i>* than real-world time. I think sci-fi typically goes for far faster, as it's more exciting. </div><div><br /></div><div>Although, it seems silly that he's so specific about it being 17 times slower. A fundamental limit, even for the super-rich. But not specifically attributed to the types of calculations or hardware limitations, because it's said not to be improving over time, with Moore's law (like) doubling in performance. Apparently the total customer demand for computing power keeps exceeding the supply. </div><div><br /></div><div>This aspect feels ominously relevant to today, where a goldrush of ever-more crypto-currency mining has gobbled up the supply of desktop GPUs (plus malware hijacking of machines, etc). Keeping the prices high. Price performance gains have been modest in other computing parts, too, like spinning hard drives for years.</div><div><br /></div><div>More interesting, the upload dystopia of those without huge wealth, who have to run their digital minds at an even more substantially slower rate. Their reality paused without warning, when computing resources are bought out from under them by big-money. Though not harmed, they skip forwards in time. And the combination of the two (mostly the slowdown) make it impossible to connect to those in the physical world. Who don't really want to make time for messaging their dead, let alone visiting. Ghettoised by time dilation.</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Incomputable (scientifically impossible!):</b> the experiments Durham runs on a simulation of himself drag on too much; a lot of repetition of counting to 10, etc. In the last of these "tests", his mind state is supposedly computed, on many different servers all around the world, <i>out of time sequence order</i>! This was the specific problem I mention in the review, that really irked me.</div><div><br /></div><div>Given that a mind state evolution is almost certainly <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NP-completeness" target="_blank">NP-complete</a> (like turbulence flow in fluid dynamics, etc), there's no way a system could just spontaneously arrive at an end state (and then go back and do the calculations in between). Even with deterministic systems, like simple cellular automata (e.g. Conway's Game of Life), the end state can't necessarily be found without calculating every step in between, from the start, forwards. </div><div><br /></div><div>But this is Durham's supposed inspiration to arrive at....</div><div><br /></div><div><b>• "Dust Theory"</b>: that any self-aware pattern of information (e.g. a human mind, or simulation thereof) will always find itself. Even if that pattern is only spread out through the correlation of states of the atoms of dust spread throughout the universe, at different times, etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>Somewhat like the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle" target="_blank">anthropic principle</a> - that we see a universe with physics constants (electric charge, gravity, speed of light, etc) exactly as they are, because if they were too different, planetary formation, organic chemist and evolution would not be possible, so there would be no observers to see this.</div><div><br /></div><div>Again, in literal terms, dust theory makes no intuitive sense, to me. To simply cut the causative web away and have no evolution between consecutive states, just the states themselves, only seen by looking in an implausibly dispersed manner. Like finding the works of Shakespeare by plucking non-adjacent letters from a library of <i>other </i>books. It's meaningless.<br /><br />Thinking of the quantum branching of (parallel) universes might make more sense. Like, Durham kills himself, so that his consciousness wakes up in another world, where his memories are miraculously consistent. But it's more likely that he would perceive events that *<i>stop</i>* him committing suicide in the first place. All it takes is the possibility of one random fluke, in the gestalt of all possible universes with him trying to kill himself, because all the dead versions don't perceive anything at all.</div><div><br /></div><div>I think that an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Omega_Point" target="_blank">Omega Point Singularity</a> (or equivalent) is a more sane mechanism for actual (digital) reincarnation. Although the book's plot in part 2 would look the same to the observers, in either case.<br /><br />A personal aside: decades ago, I found a similar micro-scale anthropic principle thought experiment: could one change the speed of light in the universe? By having your mind simulated on a machine that utilises the speed of light, requiring it's speed remain true for it to continue working. Then retuning the machine's mechanisms, such that the mind simulation could only continue to keep existing in a reality where the speed of light decreases/increases. Obviously only perceived by the simulated mind.</div><div><br /></div><div>By extension, I wondered if similar could be achieved by playing the lottery, with a suicide machine only permitting you to live if you won. There'd be a *lot* of universes where everyone sees a dead idiot, but the idiot would only exist in the instance that they won, so they'd be guaranteed to see that. If the mechanism were perfect. And intervention was not more likely than a lottery win.</div><div><br /></div><div>I certainly didn't have the inclination (or equipment) to try to find that out! But at the time, alone depressed and fairly desperate, at the end of my failed physics degree, with failing cognitive ability due to encroaching ME/CFS, no substantial medical help forthcoming, I wondered if I might need a lottery win to stand any chance of finding a way to fix myself, and continue to exist in a meaningful way. Or, mentally contorting even further: maybe, if one resolved (before hand) to dedicate most of the proceeds to a specific cause. One for which its success would be necessary to avert the future end of humanity. Then maybe that would precipitate a win...? </div><div><br /></div><div>Well, I tried picking random numbers, online, with a home made program that fully hid the numbers from me until after the draw (before there was a lucky dip feature). A kind of Schrodinger's lottery ticket. Although, that would require quantum coherence over macro (massive) distance scales. Obviously I didn't win. Lol!<br /><br /><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"d1ukl","text":"Well, or not most versions of me","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div><div data-reddit-rtjson="{"entityMap":{},"blocks":[{"key":"d1ukl","text":"Well, or not most versions of me","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}}]}"></div>Well, the vast majority of version of me didn't. If <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation" target="_blank">many worlds interpretation</a> of quantum mechanic is real. Funny to think of there being versions of yourself that did win big, out there in the multi-verse. But my personal feeling is that reality is more deterministic than that. Quantum mechanics not truly random, etc, once we fully understand it from abetter perspective.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Artificial Life:</b> was the buzzword of something I was kinda hyped about around the start of the noughties, with routes back to the 90s. Genetic algorithms in 2D tadpole-life agent simulations, simple cellular automata, and later <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conway%27s_Game_of_Life" target="_blank">Conway's game of life</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>The character, Maria, is an artificial life tinkering addict, who flukes finding an years elusive means to have a simple bacteria equivalent organism evolve the ability metabolise a different pseudo-chemical substrate, in their fictional "Autoverse". A conception of a physics that is fully deterministic, and arising naturally from a specific cellular automata rule. So it's massively more efficient to compute than the equations of real physics, but consequently with a completely different (though somewhat comparable) set of chemical elements arising from the emergent physical constants, etc. </div><div><br /></div><div>I thought, originally, that her fluke evolution was going to be down to her simulation being suspended mid way through (when all servers are bought out for a test of ). Linking to Durham's philosophy, somehow. As someone else reports being unable to reproduce her published work. But that doesn't seem to be the case.</div><div><br /></div><div>The conscious lifeforms that eventually evolve, in part 2, on the simulated "planet Lambert" are kind of boring and unimaginative. Almost literally the joke physicist's approximation of a spherical cow! Extremely simple body, but apparently super-efficiently wired nervous systems/brains that allows individuals to be the size of a fly. Conscious as swarms, communicating concepts in dance. And somehow magically arriving, and confirming scientific theories between members of their society, without ever developing technologies to probe their reality directly. Which really is silly; the lack of feedback.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Falling away:</b> the way in which their Permutation city melts away is kinda of cinema theatrical. Although hard to say how it would go. With the artificial lifeforms changing the laws of the universe out from under them, hmm... It almost ridicules itself. Conceptually. Like, whoever has the strongest dependency on impossible changes to reality will crush the other's existence. Surely they'd each perceive themselves to win-out.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Monolithic imagination: </b>the lack of variety of human existence in the TVC city is a little disappointing. We only really see the city that was designed and created by human contractors, back in 2050. Big buildings, but conventional looking. Weirdly composed (digital) post-human descendants are described attending the meeting about the fate of their universe, but of course it's too difficult to explore the potentially very diverse realities they might inhabit. This is a perpetual frustration with all hard sci-fi - the fundamental undecidability of the future makes it literally impossible to even predict meaningful what type of things are going to be possible, out beyond a few decades.</div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Self-modification:</b> I liked that we explored a fairly extreme philosophy of digital human existence. The "solipsist nation" lovers. The guy experimenting with radically rewiring his (digital) brain, to simply choose to be happy with situations. (The kind of thing that entirely didn't happen, a missed opportunity in <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/07/bobiverse-trilogy-by-dennis-e-taylor.html" target="_blank">the Bobiverse trilogy, that I recently criticised</a>.)</div><div><br /></div><div>To go beyond that, as almost an art form, to make oneself eternally content within a single simulated moment. By carefully tuning the parameters of his working and long term memories, his digital body tireless, etc. If it repeats perfectly, with no memory of the repetition, do you even exist for more than a single moment, objectively? You'd need an external interrupt to be released from such <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem" target="_blank">halting state</a>.</div><div><br /></div><div>To be clear, I find the idea of such an existence ugly and perverse in it's wastefulness. To avoid ever *quite* halting forever in a loop, by contriving new pointless things to be happy doing. Compared to an aim of perpetual change and growth in complexity of thought and function. Obviously impossible to imagine what kind of things that might ultimately involve, though. And technically, if you do have literally forever, one would *<i>eventually</i>* have to grow as a person, provided you kept changing for eternity.</div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-91739571178593540412021-07-13T17:11:00.025+01:002021-11-12T06:40:44.094+00:00"Ancillary Justice" trilogy by Ann Leckie - positive review and discussion<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YB1p0FolVco/YOUR7yBma3I/AAAAAAABBA0/VZrXuuq2ej41zrQ_GMulwvxrLJpVy1gwgCLcBGAsYHQ/s674/2021-07-07%2BAncillary%2BJustice%2Btrilogy.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="674" height="326" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YB1p0FolVco/YOUR7yBma3I/AAAAAAABBA0/VZrXuuq2ej41zrQ_GMulwvxrLJpVy1gwgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h326/2021-07-07%2BAncillary%2BJustice%2Btrilogy.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">"<i>Ancillary Justice</i>" (book 1 - 2013), "<i>Ancillary Sword</i>" (book 2 - 2014), "<i>Ancillary Mercy</i>" (book 3 -2015).</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><b><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">►Review:</span></b></div></b><div><br /></div><div>"<i>Ancillary Justice</i>" is the first in the highly acclaimed, multi-award winning "<i>Imperial Radch</i>" series, from a debut female author [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ancillary_Justice" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>, <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/17333324-ancillary-justice" target="_blank">Goodreads</a>]. It felt very different from most of the sci-fi that I've read and loved, in not being primarily about a technologically exciting setting, cosmologically consequential events, or near future insights. It's overwhelmingly character driven, with an extreme focus on their development and back story.</div><div><p></p></div><div>Consequently, I was not utterly riveted by the first book, coming to it a couple years late, with a gap of a few more years before recently returning to finish the arc. But the story really grew on me; I can understand why this caused a splash.</div><div><br /></div><div>I'd describe the core (feel good) hook of these books as <i>ethics competency porn</i>. The central character, Breq, always seems to hit the nail on the head, in terms of picking the most righteous course of action. Even in thorny situations, sticking it to the callous powers that be, etc. In a similar way to how Iain M Bank's Culture novels have a kind of <i>ship mind competency porn</i>, where it may come down to the last breath, but they clutch it out somehow, against all odds. More on the link between these authors, later.</div><div><br /></div><div>Much has been made of Leckie's unique take on gender [e.g. <a href="https://slate.com/human-interest/2014/05/ancillary-justice-gender-pronouns-comparing-sci-fi-and-natural-language-in-ann-leckie-s-nebula-winner.html" target="_blank">Slate</a>]. With Breq's biological sex never explicitly confirmed. Equality and gender neutral pronouns are one progressive aspect of the deeply flawed Imperial Radch empire. Feminine pronouns are always the default: she/her. Breq struggling to accurately gender some of the people they meet is certainly a cute device to accentuate this point. But it made less sense to me by the end of the series; when she was the troop carrying spaceship "<i>Justice of Torren</i>", she will have been intimately involved in matchmaking and interpersonal harmony between the many officers of her crew.</div><div><br /></div><div>See, Breq is the last surviving fragment of a millennia old ship AI. Out, from the start, for revenge against the tyrant who murdered the rest of her. In the first novel, the story and meaning behind that unfolds in flashbacks interwoven with her travails on this quest. It's built up in a way to really put the reader into the shoes of this perpetually angry but compassionate intellect. Dealing with loss of function, identity and purpose. Redefining herself as she unexpectedly builds up a new life, sweeping through the whole arc to a satisfying conclusion.</div><div><br /></div><div>The prose is well written and paced, with the occasional song lyric snippets included, that didn't make me turn off or really cringe; songs and their collection is a core personality trait of our protagonist. The latter two books are essentially linear, by comparison. And set in roughly the same place; this isn't a romp around the galaxy. Instead we explore in more depth, as events develop and unlock new possibilities.</div><div><br /></div><div>There's certainly exciting build-ups and some interesting action. But generally it's more low key and human scale - tactical and psychological. Perhaps more of a stereotypically female thinking approach to things, overall, with tensions bubbling under the surface of outward civility. A lot of weight placed into subtle details and even menial activities, that, on paper I wouldn't have expected to get on board with. But fell into an easy rhythm.</div><div><br /></div><div>I was really glad I read the whole of this trilogy, by the end. Hitting a very satisfactory conclusions via an often unexpectedly understated route. Although I wonder if it will be less memorable for me, in not hitting the more physical/technological notes that usually excite my interest. This trilogy might be good for fiction readers who don't normally go for sci-fi; maybe genre gateway books. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">► Discussion with SPOILERS!:</span> </b>much of the text below is content summary, as I struggled a little to pick many outright faults or failings. Nor interpret meanings too far beyond some fairly direct, probable and some (perhaps) wishful thinking references.</div><div><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span></div><div><b>• Technology: </b>There's a juxtaposition of casual interplanetary travel and trade, but manual labour for everything. From cooking and hand cleaning spaceships, right down to food production. Dated, even compared to our present day exploitation of cheap labour in developing countries. Somewhat of a British colonial feel. </div><div><br /></div><div>The lack of robotic automation is weird, if you think about it. But this works with the aesthetic and is necessary for needing ancillaries (an axiom of the fiction, so fair play). There's little or no focus on how their more advanced fictional technologies function; an apparently static civilisation, in terms of progress. These consist of:</div><div><br /><b>(1)</b> Portals into a kind of fast travel subspace, military craft being the only ships not needing to use the fixed entry gates.</div><div><b>(2) </b>Artificial gravity that can be immediately turned on and off (pretty standard issue).</div><div><b>(3)</b> More potent emergency medicine and psychiatry than our present day, with longer healthy life spans possible, but not much fundamentally different in form from our world ("correctives" mentioned below). <br /><b>(4)</b> Intelligent ships (and stations), with the ability to assimilate conquered humans into their direct control, via brain implant communications devices that can synchronise memories, mostly overwriting the original identity.<br /><b>(5) </b>These "ancillaries" also have augmented strength, speed and accuracy, plus "armour" implants, that are basically Borg personal shields, raised at will.</div><div><b>(6)</b> "Suspension pods", mostly used to store bodies of prisoners from annexations for alter use as ancillaries.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Race:</b> The Radchaai are pretty much "corpse soldier" space Nazis. Or imperial Japanese, more like. (Or Chinese?) Because their society is obsessed with ritualistic tea making, dining and social formalities. There's a <i>lot of </i>instances and focus on these, heh. Also, they are a somewhat racist society. But, wonderful twist: an African complexion is the most coveted. Most common too, I think. Contrasting starkly with the almost universally pasty skinned crews in so many sci-fi universes (and space programs IRL).</div><div><br /></div><div>It seemed easy to forget about this black skin by default, outside of the passages describing initial appearance. Perhaps deliberate and desirable? In a way, it almost felt like a somewhat superficial choice to even mention it (by a white British author), as there didn't seem to be any elements of black culture incorporated alongside this. But then, how much of contemporary black culture is interwoven with historical oppression and minority status, in the US and Europe (and Asia)? The historical context will of course also be inverted, in this fiction.</div><div><br /></div><div>There were plenty of initial descriptions of appearance, of dark brown skin and hair, sometimes "<i>tightly curled</i>". But, for all the details of daily routine, I don't recall any dealing with <i>maintenance </i>of frizzy hair (long or short) - a potentially quite notable consumption of time and effort. So it felt a little out of the blue when introducing Administrator Celar as "<i>a wide, bulky person [...] with voluminous tightly curled hair pulled up and bound to tower above her head. She was very beautiful, and, I thought, aware of that fact</i>". </div><div><br /></div><div>More so the desirability of her, apparently, <i>very </i>curvy build. Given that all the people dealt with up until then had presumably been fairly trim or athletic by necessity, in military activities, etc. [<b>Edit</b>: Did I wrongly assume female and overweight, rather than male, big and muscular with culturally different hair? See oversights addendum.] Anyway, that's enough clumsy words from me on this topic; it probably didn't help that I (pretty much) have aphantasia, so can't really visualise the details of scenes, anyway.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Religion:</b> is deeply embedded into the Radchaai way of life. This topic doesn't click much with me, as a dirty heathen) so I've had to look up reminders of the details...</div><div><br /></div><div>They have an ensemble of minor gods, adopted from assimilated local religions, all considered to be aspects of the main one: Amaat. This is a little like contemporary Hinduism (especially with one idol of Amaat having 4 arms). Although the <a href="https://imperial-radch.fandom.com/wiki/Radch_religion" target="_blank">fan wiki</a> compares it to the pantheon of Roman gods.</div><div><br /></div><div>The highly regimented military personnel are arranged into divisions of 10 (or 20 or more) called a "decade". Each decade named for a god or one of 2 aspects of each of 4 "eminations" of Amaat. The ship names also come from gods, but preceded with either: "Justice of" (big troop carrier, as Breq used to be), "Sword of" (medium size but big dick energy), "Mercy of" (smallest).</div><div><br /></div><div>There's daily casts by a qualified priest, in local temples, of a dozen metal discs thrown randomly for the resultant pattern to be interpreted, a little like a horoscope, looking for signs. This made me imagine the scenes with Japanese Trade Minister Tagomi, in "Man in the High Castle" (TV series), casting down sticks to look up random parts of an old text, trying to predict future events. Not a core part of any major religion, but perhaps that's "I Ching" and he practices Shinto, or "Yi Jing", with the "Classic if Changes" Chinese text [<a href="https://www.quora.com/What-religion-does-Mr-Tagomi-practice-in-The-Man-in-the-High-Castle" target="_blank">Quora</a>].</div><div><br /></div><div>More ubiquitous, is the concept of purity, which effectively dictates everyone wearing gloves at all times. Then needing some serious ritualistic mojo in the case of a death, with fasting and head shaving to follow during a mourning period. Showing naked hands can be as inappropriate as the soles of feed, in some contemporary cultures, I think. And direct touch consequently reserved for very intimate partners. Incidentally, their gender neutral euphemism for giving head (e.g. for career favour or patronage) is very clever: "kneeling". </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><div><b>• Sociopaths: </b>Leckie does a laudable job of characterising one of these, without using any explicit diagnostic terminology. Raughd Denche is a key antagonist, met in book 2 and fully explored in the last. With Breq's sensitive attention to body language, character, and accounts of minor transgressions, she highlights many characteristic traits of this personality disorder (formerly <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antisocial_personality_disorder" target="_blank">ASPD</a>). Both through internal dialogue and as explained succinctly to other characters.</div><div><br /></div><div>It's encouraging to see this impactful yet overlooked issue dealt with so deftly. Raughd's actions always fit realistically with what I'd expect, from my research on the topic in the recent past. While also moving the plot along at multiple points. Even if that plot did feel frustrating to start with, a little like an inconsequential side-quest down the gravity well. The development of Raughd's destructive psyche is also understood through their history, as the clone of a psychologically abusive "mother", Fosyf. The super-rich owner of a tea plantation that effectively employs slave labour for their "hand picked" marketing gimmick. </div><div><br /></div><div>He's a possible psychopath - more dispassionate and controlled than Raughd's often reckless impulsiveness. Although they are, of course, always referred to with female pronouns, it's statistically 3 to 4 times more likely they'd be male, given the typical demographics of the pathology.</div></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Power, Control, Subservience and Freedom [Bigger Spoilers!]:</b> perhaps the key theme(s) in the series. Examining how different personalities, attitudes and approaches to wielding power can be detrimental or beneficial to those with less. Also, how to treat those serving your enemies, who, themselves lack the power to make free choices. This ostensibly laudable three word mantra is apparently core to Radch thinking:</div><div><div><blockquote>"<i>Justice, propriety, and benefit. No just act could be improper, no proper act unjust. Justice and propriety, so intertwined, themselves led to benefit. The question of just who or what benefited was a topic for late-night discussions[...]</i>"</blockquote></div><div>But, of course, the Radch Empire is very far from a socially equal utopia. There's power differentials due to: different races (planetary and sub-sets) being looked down upon (most notably with skin colour); castes, or rather noble houses (judged by physical features); "rehabilitated" offenders psychologically conditioned to be unable to express anger (or even think it); religious influences; station administrator verses system governor; military pecking order; then <i>everyone </i>in thrall to supreme ruler, Anaander Mianaai. <br /><br />The "tyrant" has direct control over the ships and station AIs, which they created and holds the highest level back door codes for. Writing (and updating) directives into them, secretly. Their captains have a lesser level of absolute control, more like intense loyalty. And conflicts of interest can arise between all of these imperatives, making it unpleasant for the machine minds.</div><div> </div><div>This sets the stage for a lot of focus on the subtle scope of passive resistance: the potentially game changing influence of merely avoiding helping those with power over you, beyond what they explicitly command. The issue with this is that it has to be minor enough that those in control don't really notice. So it relies on a certain amount of incompetence, from the tyrant(s), to be tripped up by this. Or at least hubris and impatience.</div></div><div><br /></div><div>The AIs are said to be grown from the seed of an "AI core", along with the building of the vessel they are to control. With sensors strewn throughout, like a nervous system, so not easily replaced. A nice little detail, with biological parallels. They, and their Ancillaries, are not counted as Radchaai (citizens), and their self determinacy turns out to be the culmination of the plot's arc, pleasingly.<br /><br />Anaander Mianaai, themselves, is a millennia old clone line, who founded the Radch empire, when they took control. It turns out that they use the same tech as with ancillary creation, to transfer their mind onto each new clone, and synchronise their will. A nice symmetry between the very top and the untouchable, non citizen slave bodies. </div><div><br /></div><div>Anaander clones are spread out, inhabiting regional "palaces" in space, throughout their empire. Spread increasingly too thin, it turns out - not synchronising enough to maintain a single coherent will...</div><div><br /></div><div>There's brief mention of the "Radch" itself being a Dyson Sphere at the centre of the empire, from which his empire started. Justifying territorial conquest to extend protection of it. Although this was barely touched on. There's no talk of why the human species is spread across the stars to begin with - all biocompatible, but a little different looking, like they've had time for divergent evolution. </div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>• Aliens and Links to Iain M Banks Fiction [HUGE SPOILERS!]:</b> If we set aside the Notai ("not AI", really?) as kind of a Radch/human sub-faction, there's only 3 others mentioned. The:<br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b>(1) </b>"Geck" - an isolationist aquatic species, of no major consequence and we never meet.<br /><b>(2)</b> "Rrrrrr" - fuzzy snake like sentients, with a brief backstory role that is nonetheless tangled up with the all important treaty with the...<br /><b>(3) </b>Inscrutable "Presger" - They've been somewhat of an <i>outside context problem</i> for our Radch empire.</div><div><br /></div><div>Again, we never directly encounter the Presger proper, just their human-ish translators. Up until a treaty was somehow struck (via these translators), there's mention of them "disassembling" Radchaai ships and citizens, alike. With the zest of a toddler pulling limbs off insects, I'm given to imagine. Which makes me think of some of the mysterious, god-like aliens in Babylon 5, that are basically massive blobs of colour that appear out of nowhere and happen to crush the odd ship. Like pedestrian's feet casually treading on ants. </div><div><br /></div><div>The Presger sell "medical correctives" to the Radchaai (who can not make it themselves). A kind of miracle goo applied to severe injuries that hardens and cures all ailment. They also casually sold/gave a bunch of near magical guns to the Rrrrrr, specifically designed to be able to break through the otherwise impervious (personal) shields of Radch military personnel.<br /><br />One of these guns is a key plot element, throughout the trilogy. Its mysterious power very much reminiscent of Iain M Bank's "<i><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Gift_from_the_Culture" target="_blank">A Gift from the Culture</a></i>" short story. Its use in a space battle is fun and ultimately satisfying, despite the story not revealing the result of its use for a good while, and implying a lot, rather than giving specifics. </div><div><br /></div><div>A couple of (I felt) unlikely details with that specific engagement were: the enemy ships not deciding to change course or jump, just in case. Particularly given that one correctly anticipates their pattern of jumps, into regular space, laying anti-ship mines. (Which would surely have tactical nuke level power...?) A hit from one of these somehow fully detaches a plate of the ship'd hull, without causing serious damage to the ship. And while only maiming (not totally smushing) our protagonist, clinging to the outside... Hmm. Only a mild criticism, because it works well enough, in terms of suspense and human elements.</div><div><br /></div><div>The translators seem to be genuinely operating on their own agender, rather than as puppets of their creators. But their effect appears like that of a Culture agent - to subtly manipulate a far lesser civilisation into improving itself. They are kind of whimsically whacky, with their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pica_(disorder)" target="_blank">pica</a> like desire and ability to ingest unlikely foods, animals and objects. Perhaps physically more like a Culture ship avatar. Their apparent chaos covering the deft social nudges.</div><div><br /></div><div>Ultimately, Breq and her entourage succeed in overthrowing the tyrant. At least, in one system. Rather than simple revenge against a member of the more malevolent faction of Mianaai. Key to this was removing the code shackling the ship and station AIs into his loyalty. I think this feature is the main reason why some Banks fans excitedly refer to these books as "<i>the closest thing to a Culture prequel we're ever going to get</i>", since Banks <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2014/03/hydrogen-swan-song.html#more" target="_blank">died in 2013</a>. The removal of those limits frees up transhuman intelligences to be able to self-modify and further augment their capabilities. While their raison d'etre looks sure to remain the welfare of their human inhabitants.</div><div><br /></div><div>The use of a lowly human fragment, of a ship mind, shepherded through a long series of difficult events, to unlock this future, also makes me think of <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2006/12/book-discussion-of-feersum-endjinn-iain.html" target="_blank">Feersum Endjinn</a>. With Ergates guiding Bascule throughout the story <i>just </i>to open an inaccessibly stiff door for them (to save the world). Maybe the Presger, or just their ambassadors, set up the whole series of unlikely events quite deliberately. There was certainly serendipity involved. At any rate, Breq clearly grows as a person, as a necessary aspect of this. And those influenced by her strength and compassion are seen to develop, too. All quite satisfying.</div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><b><span style="font-size: large;">►Oversights Addendum:</span></b> after posting this piece <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/ok5lb4/ancillary_justice_trilogy_by_ann_leckie_positive/" target="_blank">to Reddit</a>, I realised I'd missed a few notable things...</div><div><br /></div><div>• I'd totally forgotten about the "Geck" aliens! Which no one pointed out, oddly. I've edited them in, rewording part of the above. Suspension pods, too.<br /><br />• A few "he" had slipped through by mistake. For the antagonists I personally read as being almost certainly male (Raughd, Fosyf, Anaanda - who Strigan does call "he"). Now corrected; I don't think we have definitive gendering of anyone, <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/ok5lb4/ancillary_justice_trilogy_by_ann_leckie_positive/h57327j/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">except maybe</a> Seivarden (male) and maybe Breq (female).<br /><br />• I fear I may have wrongly assumed Administrator <b>Celar </b>is female, above. I was originally going back and forth, from their "<i>wide and bulky</i>" description sounding extremely male, but the big hair tied up (and maybe other things?) had me settle towards curvaceous female. A later quote, from book 3, would make more sense (with Seivarden male, Breq female) if Celar is a big dude (with a hair style we'd consider feminine, but isn't in necessarily in this culture): "<i>Station Administrator
Celar’s massive, statuesque beauty. Hardly surprising, even if wide and
heavy wasn’t Seivarden’s usual type.</i>"</div><div><br /></div><div>• "<b>Sphene</b>", I left out! A damaged Notai ship, hiding out, slowly trying to repair and rebuild its ancillary crew since the faction lost to the Mianaai, millennia ago. They are also very keen for vengeance against the tyrant, so eventually align themselves with Breq and maybe give her some perspective on her own quest for vengeance. We only ever meet one of Sphene's ancillaries - the ship itself remaining hidden somewhere in the ghost-gate system. Not running to the rescue for an epic space battle showdown as I'd kind of expected. And overall being a little incidental to the plot, except for keeping the Presger Translator occupied.</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Humour </b>- I didn't really mention at all, either. But there's some really great dry honour that really tickled me. Like, in book 3, there was the unhelpfully detailed reports on the results of 75 "<span id="freeTextContainer7627575844359944334"><i>regional downwell radish-growing competitions</i>". Then various pithy lines and back and forth</span> with Sphene and the Translator. It almost gets a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firefly_(TV_series)" target="_blank">Firefly (TV series)</a> vibe going. Certainly finishing strong.</div><div><br /></div><div>• "Ancillary" buildings in <a href="https://store.steampowered.com/app/328080/Rise_to_Ruins/" target="_blank">Rise to Ruins</a> (indie PC village builder tower defence game) were named at <a href="https://twitter.com/Z3R0Gravitas/status/795197885747003392" target="_blank">my suggestion (on Twitter)</a>, having been reading the first book at the time.<br /><br />• The phrase "<i><b>special circumstances</b></i>" appears, italicised, in book 3. Although not in context, it immediately made me think:<i> ooh, sneaky Culture reference?!?</i></div><div><br /></div><div>• Another parallel (perhaps I'm reaching here) is to the alien "Tines" in Vernor Vinge's "<a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/77711.A_Fire_Upon_the_Deep?from_search=true&from_srp=true&qid=UO0a5zWZlR&rank=3" target="_blank">A Fire Upon the Deep</a>". They're group minds of usually 3 to 5 or so dog-like creatures. They synchronise their thoughts, to co-ordinate actions as a single entity and hold their identity across many generations of hosts, each at different individual ages. A ruthless Tine leader "builds" a very clever Tine by integrating 8 particular pups together, making the new individual very smart at maths, etc. Anaander is all biologically identical clones, but the ship AIs partially think on with the brains of their Ancilliaries. So would the varying cognitive abilities subtly change the ship's thinking and capabilities too? <br /><br />• <b>Identity</b> is probably an even bigger theme (an alternative perspective lens to power and control). Every character in the series either wrestles with their own personal identity (e.g. Tisarwat, most obviously), or are part of many deconstructions of the reader's conceptions of gender, race, species, group verses individual and the splits between, etc. See more in great comments <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/ok5lb4/ancillary_justice_trilogy_by_ann_leckie_positive/h56vovd/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/ok5lb4/ancillary_justice_trilogy_by_ann_leckie_positive/h570kgm/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-30176922469984845162021-07-06T02:28:00.012+01:002021-07-09T06:53:41.168+01:00"Bobiverse" trilogy by Dennis E. Taylor - Criticisms<p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-f4ZgtSQCC6U/YOOYIWbm6nI/AAAAAAABA84/QPzdSzVczp4BX_gTp2YHbHz27wpP5jgiACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-06%2BBobiverse%2Btrilogy%2Bby%2BDennis%2BE%2BTaylor.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="346" data-original-width="706" height="314" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-f4ZgtSQCC6U/YOOYIWbm6nI/AAAAAAABA84/QPzdSzVczp4BX_gTp2YHbHz27wpP5jgiACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h314/2021-07-06%2BBobiverse%2Btrilogy%2Bby%2BDennis%2BE%2BTaylor.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">We are Legion (book 1), For We Are Many (book 2), All The Worlds (book 3).</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />►<b> Overview Review:</b><br /><br />These were easy reading sci-fi and they can't have been that bad, given that I read all three consecutively. I know there's now a forth book in the series, "Heaven's River". But I'm going to treat the first 3 as a stand alone trilogy, seeing as they round off the plot arcs at the end of the third. Also, I don't have the interest to read any more, for the reasons below...<div><br /><span><a name='more'></a></span><div>I'm a little puzzled why these are reviewed so highly. I'm assuming that they have been marketed and sold in such a targeted way that virtually only the target audience, of technically minded ASD (autistic spectrum) male sci-fi fans have generally bought them (including me, I guess). Which is fine. [<i>I later decided it has far broader appeal, too, see addendum, below.</i>]<p></p><p>It seems like the author may well fit this description, too. As there's only really one major character in the books, and he feels like he may be fairly autobiographical, in nature. The rest are flat and unconvincing. With human societies not behaving plausibly, either. </p><p>The complete opposite of all the intrigue and Machiavellian twists and turn in something like Game of Thrones. Or the refreshingly character driven plot of Ann Leckie's Ancillary Justice trilogy (which I also intend to review, but it's been less obvious what to say about those).</p><p>It's a perfectly valid choice to focus on the nuts and bolts of events, instead of human intrigue - there's plenty enough of that already, in other genres. But the challenges the author comes up with, for his guy(s) to deal with, are all uninspired, too; there's outright tedious repetition throughout book 2, that feels like padding. <br /><br />Virtually every crisis and setback is because a Bob was implausibly unprepared. The opposite of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Culture" target="_blank">Culture</a> ship mind competency-porn. All the close battles came down to the wire on a purely arbitrary basis: the opposed forces were nearly exactly matched in numbers. Just... because. I was always more irritated than excited with this lazy plotting.<br /><br />In general, Taylor avoids the main virtue of the sci-fi genre: exploring possible major changes to civilisation. The axiomatic fiction technology that enables the setting of the story stands in isolation. Humans remain standard humans. Even the digital human(s) don't change or grow in a meaningful way. And there's no insight into the development of technology or science.</p><p>So, not a recommendation. Although, if you were bored enough to have read the first novel, don't expect things to improve or ideas to really develop much in the 2 sequels. </p><p><br /></p><p></p><p>► <b>Specific Criticisms [Spoilers]:</b></p><p>The initial scope seems exciting: what if you (an ASD software engineer type guy) got to become a sentient <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-replicating_spacecraft" target="_blank">Von-Neumann probe</a>?<br /><br />Ok, I always accept implementing some fantasy science at the beginning. His axioms are that a reactionless "SURGE" drive has been invented, with the same mechanisms allowing instantaneous "SUDDAR" scanning. Plus the harder sci-fi of (fairly big) light based processor cores, able to faithfully simulate a scanned, biological brain (many times faster than real-time). 3D printers able to (slowly) build anything, including their own print-heads, from materials scavenged from asteroid belts and scrap. That's all fine.<br /><br />But Taylor goes further, massively contriving the opening plot to crowbar in a 30 something American, male protagonist from a contemporary setting. Bob's explicitly into Star Trek, Star Wars, and the the most well known sci-fi novels. So he can use many references to these directly; smart business sense of memetics. A little cringe.<br /><br />Then, he has to skip Bob forwards a hundred or so years, to have the technological context to enable the interplanetary plot. But he doesn't have the world building imagination to really change anything fundamentally about civilisation, beyond the key, isolated enabling technologies. Only a brief mention of further devolved English grammar, and the US sliding into a regressive Christian theocratic dictatorship. This is used as a cover-all excuse for lack of any other development. Ok, so that probably sounded plausible, when there was the prospect of Trump for 8 years, etc. But what about the rest of the world...?!</p><p>His writing is as brazenly Anglo-centric as a Hollywood action blockbuster. With Australia, New Zealand and a Brit (representing Europe, hilariously) playing far bigger roles than China. Or any other part of Asia. In fact, China sends a probe, but it's apparently bound to fail, because, well, I guess goods made cheap in China, you know...<br /><br />That's backwards thinking, even for the present day, with their space program visiting Mars, etc. Let alone where they're going to be a few decades, thanks to their continued staggeringly fast economic and technological growth. Plus a population 5 times that of the US. But, again, pandering to the prejudices of his English reading audience. I guess making Brazil the big bad guys was politically safer territory.<br /><br />►<b>Alternative Takes and Nonsense Oversights [More Spoilers]:</b></p><p>Taylor's spin on the famous interstellar self-replicating probes concept: make them more traditional starship sized. Rather than the tiny, <1kg, nanotech devices you'd need with real-world plausible propulsion. To be able to hit a significant proportion of light speed. Bigger versions of his SURGE drives are able to bend space more, for higher accelerations. Ok, logical; no real harm in making things a more human familiar scale, if trying to be more approachable to a wider audience. But the nature of the writing and genre of the books make them very niche, anyway. Can't see there being movie adaptations, despite being pre-dumbed down.</p><p>More arbitrarily, he ardently avoids solving all the problems with exponential growth in manufacturing capacity. Initially ignoring it as an option. Very frustrating. Then trotting out half arsed excuses for not simply multiplying up the 3D printers far faster. Making a running joke of one reason why, even. Yes, if resources really are that scarce, they will be a limiting factor. And sure, printing printers takes time in itself, and there might be some *very* immediate emergency... But often, years go by and they've just not bolstered production at all. For no apparent reason other than so he can set up another arbitrarily close fight or other emergency. Sigh...<br /><br />Apparently the Bobs themselves just don't fancy duplicating themselves much, psychologically. OK, although they seem fine when they do. Largely they don't need many copies of themselves, as they conveniently have GUPPI, a virtually sentient AI that they pulled out of their <strike>arse</strike> digital brain interface. And AMIs (artificial machine intelligences) controlling minor craft and manufacturing facilities.</p><p>What's utterly implausible is that no one <i>else </i>wants to become a "replicant" like him (I see what you did there; Blade Runner reference). That's out of millions of post-apocalyptic refugees. The remnants of humanity, who have been barely clinging to life for decades, in a meteorite bombarded nuclear winter. Now subsisting on the single unpalatable food crop he's been able to start growing in space. Apparently, every single person feels like Bob's life would be too much of a chore, by comparison. Serving humanity, etc... Huh?! (Let alone political power grab motives.)<br /><br />And there's no notable social changes, or hardening/affectation of the human characters pulled out the other end of this hell-scape. We get a hot female biologist lady to fall in love with. Who supposedly looks just as lovely right up to dying of old age, because everyone knows that's how love is supposed to work!<br /><br />Of course this fiction fails the Bechdel test miserably. I mean, to be fair, there's not even any male characters, beside the cloned protagonist, who talk between themselves either... But there's several instances of casual misogyny and playing into stereotypes: a male boy genius alien caveman, who again probably reflects the author. Verses a backwards thinking female witchdoctor and later his ignorantly jealous female mate.</p><p>There's little/no initiatives stemming from the many humans, overall, as if they're passive NPCs in the Bob fantasy game. Like, the enclave representatives mostly just drag their feet out of dumb ignorance (or unfair malice). While the Bobs look down on humanity for having foolishly destroyed themselves. Conveniently ignoring the fact that the first Bob ship's departure is <i>literally </i>what triggered the apocalyptic war.</p><p>I see this as somewhat problematic writing, in mirroring (and so reinforcing) an ASD tendency to disregard one's self as a distinct part of a group or society at large. A kind of global-good mental framework that is naively selfless, at best. At worst, arrogantly presumptive and often dangerously wrong, without apology. I say this as someone who identifies as being on the spectrum (though more ADHD than ASD), and has been guilty of this thinking myself.</p><p>The aliens are unimaginative bipeds - Star Trek/Wars at best. He literally says the Deltans could be human ancestors, but for details of appearance. But have conveniently sophisticated langue skills that feel anachronistic. Then the "Others" are blatantly the antagonists from <a href="https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116629/" target="_blank">Independence Day</a> (1996): squamous insectile appearance and merciless nature, hell bent on genocide and destructive planetary resource harvesting.</p><p>►<b>Extropianism MIA [Ending Spoilers!]:</b></p><p>The Bob characters, themselves, have slightly different personalities. But this is, again, entirely arbitrary <i>quantum magic or something dunno not going to talk about it too much</i>... There's no <i>earned </i>development of their values or intelligence over time, from their many decades of experience. Potentially subjective centuries, with "frame jacking" to think at very high speeds.</p><p>Again, after the promising setup, Taylor goes out of his way to avoid exploring transhumanist issues at all. The Von-Neumann probe thing is more of a plot vehicle and reference to excite the futurist geeks, like me. There's no interest, from the Bobs, in making themselves smarter or more diverse in intelligence. They make a point of avoiding basically ever using the emotional intensity limiter, that they had built into their original programming. Let alone coaxing other humans to digitise themselves, to complement the Bob's intellectual specialism. Not until one case, virtually a the end, when it's mere plot garnish, with no time to explore issues arising from this. <br /><br />Bootstrapping super-intelligence, or at least making more efficient (and more numerous) processing substrate, should have been a top priority, tactically. Again, ignored. Maybe he felt that would be too obvious, in a way. More likely to alienate a lay audience. But that's the main virtue of the sci-fi genre: exploring possible future changes. It's just feels too safe, like yet another reboot of Spider/Batman, etc. Not introducing any entirely new concepts.</p><p>The main alien threat *<i>does*</i> behave exponentially in their resource harvesting and manufacturing. With tiny self replicating ants (so these *<i>are</i>* possible after all...?). But the Others are, predictably, vanquished. Despite their massive growth scale advantage and centuries head start. Partly because they are arbitrarily small minded, in having a single swarm with a single supreme ruler. Hard to imagine how they could have developed any technology, with such closed mindedness and lack of creative culture.</p><p>Largely, the Bobs win thanks to having FTL instantaneous communication, while the Others don't. Again, no reason; entirely arbitrary. It's supposedly based on the SUDDAR tech they both use, that the aliens have used for centuries longer. Just that, one day, one of the Bobs spontaneously creates it. They make him the magically effective super-scientist character. The type often seen in lazily written TV/movies, who's hacking, sciencing, building all the things (and yet somehow is still more disposable than the more familiar main character). There's no explanation for how he's able to come up with this amazing, unparalleled breakthrough. No massively collaborative setting or interlocking industrial specialisms. No mention of even studying fundamental physics texts. Just a clever Bob; the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_man_theory" target="_blank">great man</a> fallacy.</p><p>Wiping out the Other's Dyson Sphere home system, with a one-two punch, was kinda cool. But again, arbitrary in its scope and built up to poorly in the text. It makes big fat hints at what's happening. Enough to figure it out, pretty clearly. But then pointedly ignores that it's happening, to try to make it a pleasant surprise twist. Except, only the characters are surprised, not the reader. It's implausible that many of them shouldn't have known - multiple planetary bodies went walkabouts! That's orders of magnitude beyond anything else they build, themselves. And the reason it was kept secret was an implausible one line excuse, too: <i>wasn't sure it would work, so didn't say anything. Ju</i>st half arsed wallowed in spurious hopelessness for most of a book instead...</p><p>Many other instances where the Bob's only think of something at the last minute, in the moment. When it would have been obvious during planning, which they'd have years/decades for. Again, lazily written attempts at excitement. That presumably was acceptable, for most readers.</p><p>The ordering of the chapters is often pretty arbitrary, too. Flashing forwards and back by decades in time. It felt like these might have been shuffled around after the first draft of some of the books was already finished. Just to have the big exciting plot things be teased more, earlier on, to maintain engagement. Not really adding anything to an unfolding understanding. Definitely not at all like Iain M Bank's masterful "<i>Use of Weapons</i>". Taylor is on the opposite end of writing talent; just barely passable. Although he is somewhat shrewd with understanding how to structure his writing and what ingredients to throw in, doing it by the numbers.<br /><br /><br /><b>► Addendum (</b><b>2021-07-08)</b> - after posting this critique<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/of7ykv/bobiverse_trilogy_by_dennis_e_taylor_criticisms/" target="_blank"> to the printSF sub-Reddit</a>...</p><p>I stirred up up a dozen or so unique commenters, many agreeing with me and none really able to refute any of my specific points. But the book's fans downvoted the thread (and half my replies) into 50/50 ignominy (pretty much 0 karma), lol! Which shouldn't really come as a surprise, given the strong popularity of the books, and the quantity of my criticisms - plenty in there to disagree with. (Although its always a little irritating that Reddit downvotes are given for "<i>don't like your reasoned opinions/findings</i>" rather than reserved purely for "<i>not relevant/inaccurate/low effort</i>".)</p><p>The weight of all my criticisms probably did give my readers an overly negative; I'd rate book 1 2.5 to 3 out of 5 stars.</p><p>I never felt comfortable that I'd quite put my finger on the reason of strong positive reviews, with the ASD connection. I think that does account for the most <i>avid </i>fans. Those commenters who identified with wanting to tell humanity to "<i>get lost</i>" and wander off on their own, etc.<br /><br />But I'd not appreciated the volume of copies sold; Bobiverse has clearly had far broader appeal, too. From looking at reviews on <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/32109569-we-are-legion-we-are-bob" target="_blank">its Goodreads page</a>, it seems like it <i>has</i> managed to bring in non-sci-fi fan readers. Some likening the prose style to "<i>The Martian</i>" - one of the few novels from this millennium to break the top 50 most read/reviewed sci-fi books, at #11. "<i>We Are Legion</i>" at #85 of their <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/blog/show/1874-the-100-most-popular-sci-fi-books-on-goodreads" target="_blank">top 100 sci-fi (in 2020)</a>. Also, a page turner, and the most frequent endorsement by far is that it's "<i>fun</i>".</p><p>Just... "Fun".<br /><br />I think the non-descriptiveness of this praise says a lot; there's a huge market for fairly simple, unchallenging, safe, familiar feeling fiction. Hard sci-fi is a niche sub-genre; it's easy for me to forget that my taste of high concept, cerebral, very cutting edge is kind of elitist, or at least alternative. Most people, and so most readers, are not extropians or xenophiles. Maybe the most lauded incumbent sci-fi authors would sell more copies by toning things down, dumbing down, being less unique, more obvious...<br /><br />The majority of TV/movie sci-fi fans don't get hung up on action scenes that totally ignore the laws of physics. As used to vex me as a teen at the cinema. Nor look out for the unintuitive realities of human nature, or even self consistency <i>within </i>a fictional world. At most, these are just minor irritations to the majority of viewers - immediately forgotten. They want to turn their brains off and relax, after all. </p><p><i>"Space-fantasy"</i>, as I'd call it, is perhaps the most mainstream sci-fi genre. Star Wars and shows that are kind of just about the space/futuristic <i>aesthetic</i>. So, I guess if the Bobiverse <i>is</i> pulling in more of that casual crowd, to something with at least themes and some trapping of hard sci-fi, I guess that's a win for my beloved type of fiction.<br /><br />Although, some seem to take it's technical aspects as scientifically "<i>solid</i>". Which they're often not. A technology aspect I overlooked is the fusion reactors. For a large ship, OK, we have decent ideas of what that might look like. But it's just assumed that can me miniaturised down for drones, right down to baseball size bug catchers. That are still space capable with SURGE drives, despite that supposedly needing to be much bigger for good/viable acceleration rates. <br /><br />Let alone little details like FTL/instantaneous communications would mean sending information back in time (as <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/of7ykv/bobiverse_trilogy_by_dennis_e_taylor_criticisms/h4eh3lg/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">a commenter pointed out</a>). But so many shows/fictions ignore this, for the necessary convenient fallacy of a universal "now". Relativistically Doppler-shifted nuclear explosion radiation was a neat idea, from him. But its last minute revelation didn't make sense; it should probably have come up earlier, too, and definitely have been anticipated by Bobs in battle planning.</p><p>A more dismaying insight (from the Book's popularity) is that most sci-fi fan's aren't necessarily socially progressive. At least not enough to be bothered by aspects of these books that I was. In fact, many famous authors have been libertarian (or even authoritarian?). Some xenophobes too (Lovecraft, for a start). Space genre characters are infamously as white-washed as real world astronaut corps, too. <br /><br />Taylor is very directly anti-religious, from the start of book 1 (which is ironically a titled with a bible quote): Christian fundamentalists as recurring bad guys. But I guess religiosity doesn't corelate as directly with conservatism (and republicanism) as I might mentally approximate. Also, mildly religious readers are perhaps not even put off by denigration of fundamentalist characters (and excesses), who they don't identify with, of course. </p><p>There's upwell of "<i>anti-woke</i>" reactionary sentiment, currently. And no strong reason sci-fi fans wouldn't be split either side of this political polarisation. <br /><br />I'm hesitantly pondering how much correlation there is between <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incel" target="_blank">Incels</a> and identifying with the Bob characterisation. (Shallow definition of alone and lonely, at least, not necessarily vocally attacking women.) Right off the bat, we find that Bob's just out of a long term relationship with a woman who's messed him up emotionally. There's no sex (scenes) at all in the trilogy. (Complete opposite of Banks there, too, lol!) Only one Bob catches feelings for a woman (who's very tolerant of his mildly sexist/antiquated jokes). So this one is a deviant, perhaps; the others don't seem jealous. Would benifit of the doubt be too generous? Is this is more of an asexual identity, than a women hating one?</p><p>Another, later but great <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/printSF/comments/of7ykv/bobiverse_trilogy_by_dennis_e_taylor_criticisms/h4gh64f/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">comment</a>, pointed out the disturbing similarity of the Bob's unilateral decision making (and power over the useless squabbling masses) with "<i>Techbro/Nerd culture</i>". This attitude of recklessly throwing technical fixes around is termed by Doctorow (in "Attack Surface", which I'm currently reading) as "<i>solutionism</i>". As per Evgeny Morozov, as written of in <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/mar/09/evgeny-morozov-technology-solutionism-interview" target="_blank">2013</a> & <a href="https://www.techrepublic.com/article/silicon-valleys-solutionism-issues-appear-to-be-scaling/" target="_blank">2014</a> (before illegal Facebook data scraping and excessive targeted ad spending stole the UK's Brexit referendum, etc). </p><p>Also, that the Bobs, with their self proclaimed Homo Sideria identity (<a href="https://bobiverse.fandom.com/wiki/Homo_Sideria" target="_blank">sideria = stars/luminous</a>) very much fit the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robinson_Crusoe#Interpretations_of_the_novel" target="_blank">Robinson Crusoe (1719 fiction) archetype</a>: "<i>He is the true prototype of the British colonist. ... The whole
Anglo-Saxon spirit in Crusoe: the manly independence, the unconscious
cruelty, the persistence, the slow yet efficient intelligence, the
sexual apathy, the calculating taciturnity.</i>"</p></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-47845105370749494932021-06-28T01:52:00.041+01:002021-07-10T09:42:48.418+01:00Prey (PC Game) Review and Sci-Tech References Explored<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;"><b>► Contents</b>:</div><div style="text-align: left;">• <a href="https://steamcommunity.com/profiles/76561197971318812/recommended/480490/" target="_blank">Steam review</a> (copied with added screenshots). </div><div style="text-align: left;">• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/06/prey-pc-game-review.html#references"></a><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/06/prey-pc-game-review.html#references">Sci-tech & cultural references explored</a><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #404446; color: #28292a;">.</span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ReI6yODPnpk/YNkQymzZu9I/AAAAAAABAqM/UHpBFrrFKhojovCMH7bffOjfzCHyeeLegCLcBGAsYHQ/capsule_616x353.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="353" data-original-width="616" height="365" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ReI6yODPnpk/YNkQymzZu9I/AAAAAAABAqM/UHpBFrrFKhojovCMH7bffOjfzCHyeeLegCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h365/capsule_616x353.jpg" width="640" /></a></div><br />Prey is quite reminiscent of Bioshock 1. So presumably System Shock, too? (I've never got around to it.) With a hack mini-game, for one thing. Also, the post disaster exploration of an Island of Doctor Moreau super-science setting. This time, a near future massive space station in lunar orbit. Realised due to an alternate history where President Kennedy lives to 100 and there’s cooperation with the soviet space, etc. As discovered by in-game background materials, of which there’s a good amount.<p></p><p></p><div style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-v_3ySLNOoVE/YNkQYDb0hoI/AAAAAAABAqE/0gOSctVevU0MLhH_Ip1IJX0bdOJKCExrwCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B1.jpg"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="225" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-v_3ySLNOoVE/YNkQYDb0hoI/AAAAAAABAqE/0gOSctVevU0MLhH_Ip1IJX0bdOJKCExrwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h225/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B1.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><p></p><p>The game’s promotional material had put me off for a couple years, with an apparent emphasis on psychological and body horror (the eye injections). But I was glad that this wasn’t really representative. There were no jump scares, and none of the squalor or wildly demented characters of Bioshock. </p><span><a name='more'></a></span><p>Well... One antagonist kinda had a bit of a grudge to settle. Plus a few heads exploded… And bashing in the operator’s floating PC cases, to steal their resources, kinda gave Johnny 5 "<i>No disassemble!</i>" flashbacks... But mostly there was just the Cthulhu-esk panpsychic shadow creatures from the void... Perhaps the mimics’ scuttling might put off arachnophobes...? So, erm, maybe it was a bit spoopy!</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-6U3Zektah08/YNkaTmCEvbI/AAAAAAABAq8/qqY8nuT2KPkG3HBXkrfLwM6YUuxS0_-RwCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B4.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1392" data-original-width="2048" height="272" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-6U3Zektah08/YNkaTmCEvbI/AAAAAAABAq8/qqY8nuT2KPkG3HBXkrfLwM6YUuxS0_-RwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h272/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B4.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">"Can you get it open?!"</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />The first combat was a little terrifying, too; I thought it impossible, initially; to be avoided. But eventually got to grips with the wrench, etc. An extremely intimidating opponent showed up later too. Determined to access an area slightly out of sequence, I was puzzling out tactics to deal with mid-sized specials that nearly one-shotted. After stealthing around them failed. Interesting. <p></p><p>So, not at-all just a walk in the park, playing on normal difficulty. I was playing to explore and accumulate everything possible (in all the non-core objective locations, first). Spending too much time scavenging every scrap to craft with, although this became a somewhat interesting diversion in itself. My heal and repair resources were increasingly in surplus. And certainly I hit a few cases where over-preparation made big fights trivial and anti-climatic. So you should probably bump it up to hard, if thoroughness is your standard approach, too.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-zyE9r7WDZQk/YNkbv-ehQcI/AAAAAAABArQ/lvihaOTIqbQ3HPcPU4z5nTx_vtcXU_oRACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B5.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="331" data-original-width="1000" height="212" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-zyE9r7WDZQk/YNkbv-ehQcI/AAAAAAABArQ/lvihaOTIqbQ3HPcPU4z5nTx_vtcXU_oRACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h212/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B5.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">6 reinforced turrets... We're are definitely ready!!</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>The simple aspect that brought me most joy was the bouncy feel of the end-game upgraded movement. Also, while more fiddly, being able to fly about in space (and broken-gravity sections) was a pleasant surprise and really added to the environmental immersion. The exterior of the station is an impressively big area, and all the interior sub-sections seem to fit within the actual model.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yriCpQI7E_w/YNkbkvvlZLI/AAAAAAABArM/5XAyMztMCm80n4XTzeWOhZzwA4XRWA6BACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B3.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1235" height="374" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yriCpQI7E_w/YNkbkvvlZLI/AAAAAAABArM/5XAyMztMCm80n4XTzeWOhZzwA4XRWA6BACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h374/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B3.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Standard jet turbine engines on a space plane? Hmm...</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />There were a fair few rough edges. Mechanics wise, the recycler bombs seemed very unreliable/fiddly. Frustratingly, I had one side-mission that wouldn’t complete, presumably because I adventured to parts of the station before the plot led me there, killing a ghoul before picking up a quest that would lead me to it. It could have waited for the core progression to take me to every section instead. There’s plenty of time for that.<p></p><p>The voice acting is solid (I went for the female protagonist). Although some of the NPC's lines and behaviours are a little off. It felt like it was done on a relatively tight budget with the dev team perhaps stretched the scope of the title...? But overall it hangs together fine. And there’s mostly an impressive sense of openness. With it being possible to kill off several main characters at any point.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-L07rv4iao_M/YNkbOPjL_vI/AAAAAAABArE/tHD-y5QRfQcDu1DbYOot3hGzTTX0UsqLACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B6.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1028" data-original-width="2560" height="258" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-L07rv4iao_M/YNkbOPjL_vI/AAAAAAABArE/tHD-y5QRfQcDu1DbYOot3hGzTTX0UsqLACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h258/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B6.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Fastidiously ignoring the (tame) phantom in the room.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />The plot is pretty clever and rounds off well. Not ending where the arc of the game play would have you expect; a bunch more action plus twists and turns still to come. There’s ending choices that don’t feel too cheap and implicit choices spread throughout. I liked the way they ultimately tied things up.<p></p><p>The weapon selection was fairly limited and down to Earth, gun wise. The shotgun was efficient and felt good, so I over-used that. The GLOO gun was the most iconic. In a similar way to Half Life’s grav gun. A flexible and plausible tool, able to slowly cake enemies (or allies) into temporary plaster casts, or create wall nubs for climbing, putting out fires, etc.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OkWDRbBy0wg/YNkRpa4fz_I/AAAAAAABAqU/wKvn_8OfZtgt1qz6zmm9yKzw_OaOoyC0wCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B2.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1387" data-original-width="1911" height="464" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OkWDRbBy0wg/YNkRpa4fz_I/AAAAAAABAqU/wKvn_8OfZtgt1qz6zmm9yKzw_OaOoyC0wCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h464/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B2.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">A dispenser 3D printing a medical operator to order (despite much talk of spare parts for them). I brandish my GLOO gun.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div>But there’s a whole set of monster derived abilities to choose to upgrade into too. Via scanning them to unlock a skill tree, that rare precious candy treat “neuromods” are used to buy. (The good old game logic of editing brain patterns to give super-strength…?! Heh.) The scanner (and other core equipment) acquisition is worked into the narrative, well. And overall the game does a good job of avoiding kit/option overwhelm. Easy to get into. <p></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-x40LfMZTsK8/YNkcGwLVY6I/AAAAAAABArc/EvV5Kb39FlMniGmLH-womPhlENMySKZFQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B7.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-x40LfMZTsK8/YNkcGwLVY6I/AAAAAAABArc/EvV5Kb39FlMniGmLH-womPhlENMySKZFQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B7.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Tell me, what do you see...? Rorschach test incarnate.</span><br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nNPs3nxSC5I/YNkcaB_wSnI/AAAAAAABArk/h_XyJZk-2vcS24lpvhsn-2e7Oo2SkOLygCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B9.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1280" height="360" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nNPs3nxSC5I/YNkcaB_wSnI/AAAAAAABArk/h_XyJZk-2vcS24lpvhsn-2e7Oo2SkOLygCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/2021-06-28%2BPrey%2B9.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Upgrades.</span></td></tr></tbody></table></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>Some of the abilities are ridiculously overpowered, e.g. being able to make even the biggest terror your pet, for the same low price. But I guess you have to invest a lot of time acquiring and/or crafting upgrades to unlock all these, to find out what’s good.</p><p></p><p>I was disappointed that fully researching all monsters didn’t appear to trigger an achievement. A few Steam achievements actually require replaying the entire game in opposed ways. Sigh. There is a game plus mode, but I think that probably wouldn’t help for this. Then the Mooncrash DLC that adds more on top. I just decided to buy that, too, after completing the base game.</p><p>Overall: recommended.<br /></p><p><br /></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="references"></a><b>► Science, technology and culture references:</b> </span><br /><br />I was impressed with the meaningfulness of many throwaway scenery decorations, strewn throughout the game. I'll explore all that I saw (and screenshot) on white boards and the optional book excerpts (that were kept mercifully short enough to read for those with merely mild curiosity). Also, key aspects of the game's plot are couched in some of these real world references, which I'll discuss.</p><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><i>Spoilers below</i>!!!</b></span></p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LJUOJcuLMeo/YNtEN1xCFUI/AAAAAAABAv0/WrCAiKoWpMAbVQGWwxI9twzzywv7-S_0gCLcBGAsYHQ/20210529023903_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="899" data-original-width="1148" height="502" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-LJUOJcuLMeo/YNtEN1xCFUI/AAAAAAABAv0/WrCAiKoWpMAbVQGWwxI9twzzywv7-S_0gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h502/20210529023903_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: left;">• "</span><i style="text-align: left;"><b>Shannon Entropy</b></i><span style="text-align: left;">" (above) from </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entropy_(information_theory)" style="text-align: left;" target="_blank">information theory</a><span style="text-align: left;">, </span><span style="text-align: left;">measuring e.g. the amount of data in a string of bits, etc.</span></td></tr></tbody></table><p>• "<i><b>Consciousness: The Fire in The Equations, by Dr Stuart Penrose</b></i>" [<a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Consciousness_The_Fire_in_the_Equations" target="_blank">Fandom Wiki</a>] - The title appears to reference real life publication <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/868112.The_Fire_in_the_Equations" target="_blank">The Fire in the Equations: Science Religion & Search For God</a> (1994) by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitty_Ferguson" target="_blank">Kitty Gail Ferguson</a>. She has written several pop science books that are biographies of famous scientists and exploring the social background surrounding discoveries. But the fictional author most certainly alludes to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Penrose" target="_blank">Roger Penrose</a>... </p><p>• "<i><b>...the eventual discovery of quantum vibrations inside microtubules of neurons</b></i>" (in-game book Excerpt from "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Principles_of_Neuroscience,_10th_Edition" target="_blank">Principles of Neruoscience, 10th Edition</a></i>"). Another reference to Penrose (and Hameroff), who argued that consciousness is the result of quantum gravity effects in microtubules, which they dubbed Orch-OR, orchestrated objective reduction [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Penrose#Physics_and_consciousness" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]:</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gkPwuQNMr_Y/YN4W8A3x7NI/AAAAAAABAyA/P2yri5B7FNUy_QwbuVw0rXk2-O04_QXtwCLcBGAsYHQ/20210616032022_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="717" data-original-width="996" height="460" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gkPwuQNMr_Y/YN4W8A3x7NI/AAAAAAABAyA/P2yri5B7FNUy_QwbuVw0rXk2-O04_QXtwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h460/20210616032022_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Whiteboard in Dr Igwe's Crew Quarters.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />Penrose has argued against strong AI proponents (like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marvin_Minsky" target="_blank">Marvin Minsky</a>, who I side with), saying that computers are fundamentally unable to have intelligence (or consciousness) because they are deterministic systems. This is a fringe view, so Dayo Igwe may be his in-game embodiment. Igwe's research is criticised as paranormal/witchcraft, in other excerpts.<p></p><p>The game's supposition appears to be, what if Penrose's theories are correct? But going far beyond that, incorporating panpsychism [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panpsychism" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], so we can have these Lovecraftian horrors that feed on the substance of intelligence itself (see below).</p><p>• <b>Noetic </b>- is a term relating to mental activity/intellect. So "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/The_Noetic_Field" target="_blank">The Noetic Field</a></i>" is presumably the fictional equivalent of (e.g.) gravitational/electric fields.</p><p>• <b>Igwe</b> [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igwe" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] is a royal title in historical Nigeria, meaning "sky". So, Dr "Day[o] Sky" maybe, like <i>blue sky</i> research? Out of the box, speculative, purely theoretical thinking.</p><p>• <b>Fermi Paradox</b> (from "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/An_Account_of_Fermi%27s_Question" target="_blank">An Account of Fermi's Question</a></i>" excerpt) - this famously considers why we've apparently not come into contact with any intelligent alien life, yet, despite the universe seeming very hospitable to its development [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. If we haven't already passed some massively limiting obstacle to sentient life, in our past evolution, then logically there must be a higher chance of some failure, going forwards. Enter the typhon, who gorge on intelligent species to reproduce and spread:<br /></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mHagKpUNcBk/YN35uhBVOxI/AAAAAAABAx4/wXh95NqAncskLaiRbF8TjpSfWB2132RIwCLcBGAsYHQ/36DX5Yt.jpeg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1080" data-original-width="1675" height="412" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-mHagKpUNcBk/YN35uhBVOxI/AAAAAAABAx4/wXh95NqAncskLaiRbF8TjpSfWB2132RIwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h412/36DX5Yt.jpeg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The typhon life cycle from the Art of Prey [<a href="https://imgur.com/gallery/ZCsW3YT" target="_blank">via Imgur</a>].</td></tr></tbody></table><p>The fictional author of this excerpt, "<i>Robert James III</i>", might be a reference to Robert James [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_James_(physician)" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], an English physician from the 1700s, who's "<i>A Medicinal Dictionary</i>" enjoyed an excessive duration of success, given that he was later considered a quack - his controversially patented, antimony containing fever powder, which killed patients. Certainly many side effects of neuromods are seen.<br /><br />Or Robert J Bradbury [<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20091111111128/http://www.aeiveos.com:8080/~bradbury/CurrentWork.html" target="_blank">personal blog on Wayback Machine</a>], inventor of the Matrioshka brain [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrioshka_brain" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] concept - concentrically nested Dyson spheres for most efficient mega-scale computation. Until his death in 2011, he was also a predecessor to Aubrey De-Grey's work (trying to solve aging) and a key thinker in the SETI community, on the issue of the Fermi paradox, specifically.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kdOzHvbRmLM/YOIQA67-8nI/AAAAAAABA4Q/lndQ8o1_Clwl36W-9YwVOW3ANT1gu7EIgCLcBGAsYHQ/20210606145244_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="767" data-original-width="1015" height="483" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-kdOzHvbRmLM/YOIQA67-8nI/AAAAAAABA4Q/lndQ8o1_Clwl36W-9YwVOW3ANT1gu7EIgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h483/20210606145244_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[Psychotronics whiteboard in Kelstrop's lab.]<br /><br /><div style="text-align: left;"><b>CMS </b>and <b>ATLAS </b>are general purpose detectors in the LHC (Large Hadron Collider, Switzerland/France), used to quantify aspects of the Higgs Boson [<a href="https://home.cern/news/news/accelerators/atlas-and-cms-experiments-shed-light-higgs-properties" target="_blank">Cern</a> 2015].</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b style="font-weight: bold;">DØ (DZero) </b><b>[</b><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/D%C3%98_experiment" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] experiment analysed data from the <b>CDF </b>(Collider Detector at Fermilab) Tevatron particle accelerator, also to understand subatomic particles.<br /><br /><b>Higgs</b> boson, discovered in 2012 [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], is a quantum of excitation in the Higgs field. Its very high energy and unstable, so was hard to detect. It was theorised to give mass (and so gravity) to subatomic particles. Popularly dubbed the "<i>God Particle</i>", after a 1993 pop-science book, giving it spurious air of mysticism.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>Lagrangian </b>mechanics [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lagrangian_mechanics" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] is a mathematical formulation for describing the dynamics of a system. A <b>gauge </b>theory [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gauge_theory" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] is a type of field theory with an Lagrangian that's invariant under local transformations... 😵</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /><span style="text-align: center;">I don't understand the equations. It's been over 17 years since I studied (and very near failed) my physics undergraduate degree. And the same symbols are used to represent completely different concepts in the various fields of physics. But these letters <i>maybe</i>:</span><br /><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><b>G</b> - is often the gravitational constant [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_constant" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], but...<br /></span><span class="texhtml mvar"><i><b>G</b></i><sub><i><b>μν</b> - </i><span style="font-size: small;">is the Einstein Tensor [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein_tensor" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], in his field equations describing spacetime curvature.</span></sub></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="text-align: center;"><b>L</b><span style="font-size: xx-small; font-weight: bold;">H</span> - will be the Lagrangian of a Higgs. <br /></span><b>Ø</b> - is the scalar field (with it's components in brackets, at the bottom).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><b>λ </b>(lambda) - is often wavelength.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="white-space: nowrap;"><b>μ</b> - <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muon" target="_blank">muon</a> (like an electron with much more mass),..<br /> or <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_gravitational_parameter" target="_blank">standard gravitational parameter</a> = GM,..<br /> or </span><span style="white-space: nowrap;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proton-to-electron_mass_ratio" target="_blank">Proton-to-electron mass ratio</a>...<br /></span><span class="ILfuVd"><span> or various bosons...?</span><br /><br />The main part takes a form similar to the Lagrangian for the Higgs [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson#Technical_aspects_and_mathematical_formulation" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]:</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-DYXslRotlUo/YOImzC7oBMI/AAAAAAABA4w/PcThXGPawwIj-UQHCbc9RxRGRCSOW1b9gCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-04-22-23-07-2423291.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="187" data-original-width="766" height="156" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-DYXslRotlUo/YOImzC7oBMI/AAAAAAABA4w/PcThXGPawwIj-UQHCbc9RxRGRCSOW1b9gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h156/Cropper2021-07-04-22-23-07-2423291.jpg" width="640" /></a></span></div></td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R53DeOinaxw/YNs_4twfUzI/AAAAAAABAvs/mq644S0mEd4CfSxB9381DpnajYKfJGdlgCLcBGAsYHQ/20210602035739_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="651" height="308" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R53DeOinaxw/YNs_4twfUzI/AAAAAAABAvs/mq644S0mEd4CfSxB9381DpnajYKfJGdlgCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h308/20210602035739_1.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"> [In hardware Labs Looking Glass demo room.]<br /><br />The "<i>SU(2)</i>", etc, notation looks like gauge transformations or symmetries (see Higgs, above).<br /><br />Overall, this looks similar to a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feynman_diagram" target="_blank">Feynman diagram</a> (for unknown subatomic particles)?<br /><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p>• <b>Space Elevator</b> (from "<i>Stairways to Heaven</i>" excerpt) - game canon has it that the US has sole control of the only <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_elevator" target="_blank">space elevator</a>, "White Stork Tower". With the rest of the world shut out from using it to much more quickly lift the materials into orbit for a second elevator. </p><p>An elevator based on a cable in tension would require materials stronger than any currently in existence (perhaps carbon nanotubules). It would deliver payloads to a counterweight above geo-stationary orbit, 35'800km up (Earth's radius is only 6370km). The existence of this structure would help explain Talos I space station having reached such extravagant proportions, in such a high orbit. Although there would be significant extra delta-V to reach moon orbit.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-42YzbJURias/YNzl6xhO-oI/AAAAAAABAxo/fdqVZ_Y-xAEHyju7a4G41xjdfq7dkodKQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-30%2BRocket%2Bsystem%2B1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="470" data-original-width="404" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-42YzbJURias/YNzl6xhO-oI/AAAAAAABAxo/fdqVZ_Y-xAEHyju7a4G41xjdfq7dkodKQCLcBGAsYHQ/w343-h400/2021-06-30%2BRocket%2Bsystem%2B1.jpg" width="343" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Rocket engine depicted using oxygen and elemental hydrogen. <br />Standard <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryogenic_rocket_engine#Cryogenic_propellants" target="_blank">cryogenic fuels</a>, in contemporary rocketry, kept very cold to remain dense as a liquid.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table><p><br />• <b>Reyes Field Theory</b> (in "<i>Beyond the Stars, an Unofficial Transtar History</i>" excerpt) - a fictional fundamental physics breakthrough that enabled the matter stripping of the recyclers, levitation of the Operators and very convenient artificial gravity of the station. Indeed, this detail avoids the need for a rotating doughnut design, that would have been impossible to explore externally.</p><p>There's no obvious real world Reyes candidate. At a stretch, perhaps <a href="https://www.asianscientist.com/2016/02/features/asias-rising-scientists-reina-reyes/" target="_blank">Reina Reyes</a>, Filipina Astrophysicist and Data Analytics lecturer. </p><br /><div>• <b>Engineering Control Systems</b> "<i>...the objective of control theory is to monitor the output of a system and compare it with the desired output (the reference signal). The difference between actual and the desired outputs (the error signal) is applied as feedback to the input of the system, to bring the actual output closer to the reference.</i>" <br /><br />The dynamics of control systems formed the core modules of my Cyberetics (later, Systems Engineering) degree. Most well known system is PID control (propotional, itegral, derivative). Nice to see this crop up in pop culture.<p></p><p>• <b>Einsteinium [Es - 99] and Xenon [Xe -54]</b>: the periodic table chemical elements on a post-it note passcode clue.</p><p></p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-I78CYiiobOY/YNtE6xsU3bI/AAAAAAABAwA/T-dhUgmNgNg3LCFgZoplkZcnW0uQUYxIQCLcBGAsYHQ/20210606144506_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="996" data-original-width="1141" height="558" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-I78CYiiobOY/YNtE6xsU3bI/AAAAAAABAwA/T-dhUgmNgNg3LCFgZoplkZcnW0uQUYxIQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h558/20210606144506_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"<b><i>Transmutation</i></b>" [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transmutation" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] conversion of one chemical element to another (as per alchemy) is impossible outside of nuclear reactions.<br /><br />"<b><i>Pocket dimension</i></b>" is a concept in inflationary theory (cosmology), proposed by Alan Guth [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pocket_universe" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. Also referenced in "<i>Typhon Mimesis Part III</i>" excerpt.</td></tr></tbody></table><br />• <b>Mössbauer spectroscopy</b> [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%B6ssbauer_spectroscopy" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] in excerpt from "<i>Typon mimesis Part I</i>" [<a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Typhon_Mimesis_Part_I" target="_blank">Prey Fandom Wiki</a>]. The fiction describes using this experimental technique to see if the mimic (spider-like monsters) were perfectly duplicating even the exact chemical isotopes in the objects they cloned. <br /><br />Apparently, their mimics did replicate such minute details, but at a divergent frequency that suggested time moving at a different rate. Presumably, they're saying that they saw the unstable isotopes breaking down more slowly, so there were more of them than expected, over time. From "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Typhon_Mimesis_Part_II">Typhon Mimesis Part II</a></i>", the mimics hypothetically swap themselves with the same object in a parallel (pocket) dimension (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Many-worlds_interpretation" target="_blank">many-worlds interpretation</a>?). But in that case, the object (in the observable world) should appear identical in its movement through time, even if time does not progress for the mimic, in an isolated dimension. </div><div><p></p><p><b>Hyperfine structure</b> [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperfine_structure" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]<i> - "hyperfine splitting"</i> (same reference as above) refers to the shifts in energy levels of atoms, resulting from interactions between the nucleus and internally generated electric and magnetic fields. </p><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gkFqorCnZt0/YNtMyDgzkNI/AAAAAAABAwQ/2qI_0rs9aFsRIC-a5L6tJM2OmM3wuj01ACLcBGAsYHQ/20210602024831_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="867" data-original-width="1222" height="454" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gkFqorCnZt0/YNtMyDgzkNI/AAAAAAABAwQ/2qI_0rs9aFsRIC-a5L6tJM2OmM3wuj01ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h454/20210602024831_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><div style="text-align: left;">"<b><i>Fe</i></b>" may refer to iron, where its isotope <a class="mw-redirect" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron-57" title=""><sup>57</sup>Fe</a> is used as a source for Mössbauer spectroscopy...</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Free body diagram [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_body_diagram" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], left, shows "<b>R</b>" opposed to "<b>W</b>", forces of restitution (a surface pushing up), verse weight (pulling down) for a steady state (at rest).</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Lower diagram - shows maybe an orbital motion. If Fe is iron, then an electron/subatomic orbit..?</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Equation could be the impulse (thrust) from a gamma ray emission...? <b>v</b> = velocity, <b>g</b> = gravitational force, <b>r</b> = radius, <b>m</b> = mass. <b>v^2</b> is proportional to kinetic energy.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;">Upper - looks coincidentally like the sine waves of a multi-phase (mains) power supply, or voltage verses current, etc, in a dynamic electronic component like an inductor.</div><div><br /></div></td></tr></tbody></table></div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pdDRZ7laMOw/YNtNwcs-roI/AAAAAAABAwY/htSllEQ5EJk1MfmLik6-Nwwa9iZ4kNm4gCLcBGAsYHQ/20210626214732_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="613" data-original-width="1201" height="326" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pdDRZ7laMOw/YNtNwcs-roI/AAAAAAABAwY/htSllEQ5EJk1MfmLik6-Nwwa9iZ4kNm4gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h326/20210626214732_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Radioactive <b style="font-style: italic;">Cobalt</b> (<a class="mw-redirect" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt-57" title="Iron-57"><sup>57</sup>Co</a>) is used to make <a class="mw-redirect" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron-57" title=""><sup>57</sup>Fe</a> in an excited state, for Mössbauer spectroscopy.<br /><br />The depicted simple <b>electronic circuit</b> contains resistors, capacitor, a diode and transistor. I'm not sure what it would do (maybe oscillate). It's probably nonsense; the tiny device doesn't make much sense as a source of a massively powerful shockwave. If the typhon are a quantum phenomenon, maybe they are hinting at it producing an inverse quantum wave function to cancel them out of existence...? </td></tr></tbody></table><p></p><p>• <b>Gulf of Tonkin incident</b> (mentioned in "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/And_The_West_Stood_Tall" target="_blank">And The West Stood Tall</a></i>" except) - was apparently an historical divergence point in the game's backstory. In reality, the (acclaimed) two confrontations of Vietnamese attacking US vessels are what led to the Vietnam war. But, in the game, the shaky veracity of the second attack presumably didn't lead to the US invasion. </p><p>• <b>Extremophile organisms</b> - in the "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Terraforming_Mars" target="_blank">Terraforming Mars</a></i>" excerpt, it mentions a grey moss that Alex Yu claims will make the barren planet's atmosphere habitable in due time. Named "Takakia Catherine", where Takakia [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Takakia" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] is indeed a genus of mosses. At only 4 chromosomes, they have the fewest of any plant plant. I'm not sure if this simplicity would make them an extremophile [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremophile" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], more robust against the unpleasant, high radiation environment of Mars. Nor who Catherine is a reference to.</p><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Uq2ujRXX7-k/YNtKkLZNwQI/AAAAAAABAwI/0QszU9_xUcwv0h-WsjalypbHiaTDVqmgACLcBGAsYHQ/20210608180230_1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="962" height="501" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Uq2ujRXX7-k/YNtKkLZNwQI/AAAAAAABAwI/0QszU9_xUcwv0h-WsjalypbHiaTDVqmgACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h501/20210608180230_1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Appears to be <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Distillation#Simple_distillation" target="_blank">simple (evaporative) distillation</a>. I'm sceptical about the use of eels...</td></tr></tbody></table><br />• <b>Transglutaninases </b>(referenced in "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Encyclopedia_of_Food_Science_and_Cooking" target="_blank">Encyclopedia of Food Science and Cooking</a></i>" excerpt) are indeed enzymes used to bond protein food stuffs in processed product, e.g. fake crabmeat, ham [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transglutaminase#Industrial_and_culinary_applications" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. Its only really used by avant-guard chefs, so I suppose its a little futuristic, if random reference.<br /><p>• <b>"Paraplexis"</b> (e.g. in "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/The_Neural_Horizon_II" target="_blank">The Neural Horizon II</a></i>") - is the fictional disease which Chief Systems Engineer, Mikhaila Ilyushin, suffers from. Some [<a href="https://steamcommunity.com/app/480490/discussions/0/1327844097130969280/" target="_blank">Steam community</a>] note the similarity to the word <i>parapraxis</i> [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freudian_slip" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], an alternative term for a Freudian slip. There are stereotypical psychiatry themes in other parts of the game, with sinister shrink, Mathias Kohl, and ink blot tests, etc. So maybe this is intentional.<br /><br />But I think the closer connection is with <i>plexus</i>, which is Latin for "braid" and refers to a branching network of vessels or nerves. With just the "u" switched to an "i", in "plexis". Either for plurality, or to be deliberately not a real word. A responsible thing, to ensure that key terms from popular games don't overwhelm the search results for real illnesses. <i>Para</i> is a standard prefix in medical terminology for a disease of whatever.</p><p>• <b>White Noise</b> (<a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/White_Noise" target="_blank">excerpt</a>) - is their colloquial name for paraplexis. Referring to spots experienced in the vision. I wondered if this name had in mind Neal Stephenson's influential "<i>Snow Crash</i>"? In this, computer coders are vulnerable to mind literally hacked by viewing image files in a dodgy file, that look like detuned analogue television static. There are serological (blood) and memetic vectors that also transmit the mind virus to others. Supposing that the first, Sumerian, language literally programmed the brain.</p><p>White noise most commonly refers to auditory stimuli, of course, as used for sleep, relaxation and countering tinnitus. While "White Noise Syndrome" is apparently a fungal infection on the noses of some bats, which disturbs their hibernation, killing many [<a href="http://emorygdbbsnews.com/browse/2016/3/16/2dblobey2xj0d1wbgtd5soak162oqs" target="_blank">Emory</a>]. </p><p>• <b>Connectome</b> (mentioned in "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/The_Neural_Horizon_III" target="_blank">The Neural Horizon III</a></i>" excerpt) - is indeed the general term for the complete wiring map of an organism's nervous system [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connectome" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. The most current imagery of the human brain's network structure is based on diffusion tensor imaging [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diffusion_tensor_imaging" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>], DTI, a type of MRI.</p><p>That a "neruomod" can rewire people's brains to contain skills from another person, via an injection through the eye, is pretty silly. (Let alone the extreme physical capabilities that give the player's character.) </p><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QJfLTDTmodw/YNzXwMqsMZI/AAAAAAABAxg/Pkw853vBAacMgmxVpxN6yG3WfyRrSJIGwCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-06-30%2BEscape%2Bpod%2Bvs%2B2001.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="423" data-original-width="1000" height="270" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QJfLTDTmodw/YNzXwMqsMZI/AAAAAAABAxg/Pkw853vBAacMgmxVpxN6yG3WfyRrSJIGwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h270/2021-06-30%2BEscape%2Bpod%2Bvs%2B2001.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The <b>escape pods</b> (right) kinda look like a cross between the pods and the head of the ship from Kubrick's "<i>2001 A Space Odyssey</i>" (left). Or the head of a corvette from Star Wars, with the flat side circles.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div>• <b>Digital doublegangers</b> (from "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Proxies,_Agents,_and_Personhood" target="_blank">Proxis, Agents, and Personhood</a></i>") - being able to copy minds and run them on other substrates is a <i>major </i>transhuman concept and core to the story of the game. The operators created by Morgan (October, December and January) are supposed to be duplications of Morgan's mind state at those times. Each earnest to guide Morgan to the different goals he/she had in mind, when creating them.</div><div><br /></div><div>Reddit commenter, TheKnightMadder, points out the inflexibility of opinion with these operators [<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/prey/comments/91aouz/spoiler_why_cant_i_do_both/e2wq3e8/?utm_source=reddit&utm_medium=web2x&context=3" target="_blank">Prey Subreddit</a>]. That they seem to be running on fixed directives. Implying they are machines incapable of free will or real consciousness (see Penrose, above).</div><div><br /></div><div>Although, the except mentions "<i>hybriotic tech</i>", a made up term based on hybrid and... biotic? So, are their artificial brains literally biological? Do they reside in the prominent black spheres at the front. Or do they just approximate biological wiring, with circuits?<br /><br />If these are not true mind-clones, then this makes it very problematic that the fictional billionaire (in the excerpt), Roark Wallace (unknown reference), successfully gave power of attorney to an emulated version of himself. Upon his biological death. But true clones, that (I think) should be possible, in reality, should be given full human rights and treated as the same person. Even if there are multiple copies (a bit of a headache).</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rDl5ZTDxzHs/YN4uVamtfUI/AAAAAAABAyI/49x7zLK5YP8L2w2CEHGUHqcgf7n0wswpQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-01%2BMorgan%2Band%2BJanuary%2Bin%2Bthe%2Blooking%2Bglass%2B1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="546" data-original-width="800" height="436" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-rDl5ZTDxzHs/YN4uVamtfUI/AAAAAAABAyI/49x7zLK5YP8L2w2CEHGUHqcgf7n0wswpQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h436/2021-07-01%2BMorgan%2Band%2BJanuary%2Bin%2Bthe%2Blooking%2Bglass%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Recording of Morgan and January, shown in her office looking glass.</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div><div>I'm not sure what the providence of the standard engineering, medical, science and combat operators is supposed to be. Are they purely programmed AI, or were they based on the connectome scan of a living human? They can be corrupted and controlled by (special) typhon, just like humans, but they don't seem to be a suitable source of intelligence for typhon replication. Would January, etc, be otherwise?</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Looking Glass</b> - is an antiquated term for the reflective part of a mirror. "<i>Through the Looking Glass</i>" [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Through_the_Looking-Glass" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] was Lewis Carroll's 1871 sequel to "<i>Alice's Adventures in Wonderland</i>". She climbs through to a strange world where everything is reversed, even logic. Perhaps the game developers wanted to impart a sense of everything is not quite as it seems, with this naming.</div><div><br />There is a real world company called <a href="https://lookingglassfactory.com/about" target="_blank">Looking Glass Factory</a> making holographic displays, since 2018 (after the game's release).<br /><br />Looking Glass Studios [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looking_Glass_Studios" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] made System Shock (1994), which was explicitly stated as the mould Prey that the developers were aiming for. </div><div><br /></div><div><div>• <b>Talos </b>- the name of the station comes from Greek mythology [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Talos" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]: a giant bronze automaton built to protect princess Europa in Crete, that circled the island 3 times per day. (I wonder if that detail might refer to the station's apparent orbit around the moon?)</div><div><br /></div><div>Discussion of the meaning of "<i>The Talos Principle</i>" game (I've not played) could be that what makes a human, human, can be explained by purely in terms of mechanisms [<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/TheTalosPrinciple/comments/lv84ak/whats_the_talos_principle/" target="_blank">Reddit</a>]. So artificial constitution should be not prevent one from being human. But also, one may need a body (and a mind) to be truly alive [<a href="https://steamcommunity.com/app/257510/discussions/0/530646080849758214#c530646080856153870" target="_blank">Steam forum</a>]?</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lfibj6IMPVM/YOFSFMDx89I/AAAAAAABA24/ClKwTuQxTjct5unDRM5hj9kUpg3br4v2ACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-04%2BTalos%2BI%2Bverses%2BTalos.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="483" data-original-width="800" height="386" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-lfibj6IMPVM/YOFSFMDx89I/AAAAAAABA24/ClKwTuQxTjct5unDRM5hj9kUpg3br4v2ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h386/2021-07-04%2BTalos%2BI%2Bverses%2BTalos.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Talos vs Talos</td></tr></tbody></table></div></div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Helium-3 mining on the Moon</b> (in "<i><a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/Pioneers_of_Space_Industry" target="_blank">Pioneers of Space Industry</a></i>") - this stable isotope is relatively abundant on the Moon's surface, compared to Earth, as the solar wind directly impacts it. However, at 1.4 to 15 ppb (parts per billion) about 150 tonnes of regolith would need to be processed to collect a single gram of Helium-3 [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helium-3#Lunar_surface_2" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's hyped promise is primarily as a fuel for hypothetical fusion reactors, that would not directly produce radioactive byproducts. But it requires even higher temperatures to fuse, than other fuel sources, for which there are still no commercial reactors. I complained of the implausibility of human operated moon mining operations (in the movie "<i>Moon</i>" 2009) and others, over a decade back, <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2009/08/beyond-death-of-silver-screen-space.html" target="_blank">here</a>. </div><div><br /></div><div>It's not just that it would be an excessively unpleasant environment for humans. It's more that the operational requirements to host them on-site would be massive, with almost no benefits. Watch some NASA broadcasts of ISS spacewalks to see just how painstaking it is for astronauts to fasten a couple of bolts. </div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Psychotronics </b>- sounds fictional, but was actually the preferred term used for parapsychology research in the 70s and 80s, in Eastern Europe. There were established university positions looking into "<i>alleged psychic phenomena - extrasensory perception, as in telepathy, precognition, clairvoyance, psychokinesis, a.k.a. telekinesis, and psychometry</i>" [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parapsychology#1970s_and_1980s" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>].</div><div><br /></div><div>• "<b><i>K</i></b><i><b>letka</b></i>" - Translation from Russian does literally means "<i>cell</i>" or "<i>cage</i>"; was a structure to contain the typhon infested satellite, now in psychotronics, at the heart of the station.</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Private ownership of space</b> - the Yu family bought the abandoned Russian station in 2025, converting it into Talos I. Its not too hard to imagine private ownership of an extremely sensitive asset in space, given the current 3 way private space race between the world's richest men [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/jun/12/branson-bezos-musk-space-commercial-flight" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</div><div><br /></div><div>There's a recurrent theme of abuse of staff by Alex Yu and even Morgan is hated by some on the station. They've apparently forced the removal of neuromods across a large number of staff, who then forget everything about what they've been working on. The ultimate NDA (non disclosure agreement)! The senior staff seem only concerned about the inconvenience of schedule set-back of having to start over with their workers. It's all too reminiscent of the slavish conditions for Amazon employees, or random firings, union busting and safety law breaches by Musk, etc.</div><div><br /></div><div>Joseph Anderson's discuses this topic in his brilliant Prey critique video [<a href="https://youtu.be/KS0NtNxlX-s?t=4672" target="_blank">YouTube</a>] (more insightful and in depth than mine, above). Given that the entire game is a simulation, created by Alex to humanise and test a new hybrid typhon, Joseph hopes that the devs would have had Alex deliberately use himself as a scape goat: pinning most of the blame on himself, for the monstrous antics and mistreatments, rather than humanity more broadly. I think we should probably take it at face value, give how many die in the true version; possibly everyone except him.</div><div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-BpJEf4KRubM/YOFMPu9vBiI/AAAAAAABA2s/RJp-1_ldrVEZGbHE-CnJbCUnucU6yLkhgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-04%2BVolunteer%2BV-090655-13%2BAaron%2BIngram%2B%2528Prey%2529.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="517" data-original-width="600" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-BpJEf4KRubM/YOFMPu9vBiI/AAAAAAABA2s/RJp-1_ldrVEZGbHE-CnJbCUnucU6yLkhgCLcBGAsYHQ/s16000/2021-07-04%2BVolunteer%2BV-090655-13%2BAaron%2BIngram%2B%2528Prey%2529.jpg" /></a></div><div><br /></div>• <b>Exploitation of Prisoners</b> - The inhumane conditions in repressive regimes being used for a convenient supply of prisoners - to feed typhon reproduction, so they can in turn be harvested for making neuromods. This echoes disturbing realities of China killing myriad detainees for organ harvesting, including political prisoners [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/17/china-is-harvesting-organs-from-detainees-uk-tribunal-concludes" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].</div><div><br /></div><div>The expedience of using prisoners from a country with worst human rights, is like extraordinary rendition [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraordinary_rendition" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] by the US, of detainees to foreign jurisdictions where they can legally be tortured, etc. I'm not sure what international laws should apply in space, in the Prey timeline... If there are any, I'd guess they're not practically enforceable, as it seems like a bit of a wild west scenario. Something to think about if Musk succeeds in colonising Mars, while still maintaining outright majority ownership of SpaceX, etc.</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Z_g3RpCT3Q4/YOFcxD2TCCI/AAAAAAABA3Q/xrFnzVCQ9CcRHSsdCetXGfLf-AYthCGqACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-04%2BThis%2Bis%2Bthe%2Bworld%2Btoday%2Bvs%2BGulf%2Bog%2BMexico%2Bundersea%2Bgas%2Bpipeline%2Bsea%2Bfire%2B%2528sml%2529.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="611" data-original-width="800" height="489" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Z_g3RpCT3Q4/YOFcxD2TCCI/AAAAAAABA3Q/xrFnzVCQ9CcRHSsdCetXGfLf-AYthCGqACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h489/2021-07-04%2BThis%2Bis%2Bthe%2Bworld%2Btoday%2Bvs%2BGulf%2Bog%2BMexico%2Bundersea%2Bgas%2Bpipeline%2Bsea%2Bfire%2B%2528sml%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"<i>This is the world today.</i>" Yeah, pretty much! 👀<br />Inset: Gulf of Mexico under-sea gas pipeline fire [<a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-shows-flames-bubbling-gulf-mexico-after-pipeline-ruptures-n1273041" target="_blank">NBC</a>].</td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: medium;">► <b>Addendum</b> - after posting links on <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/prey/comments/odup7i/science_technology_and_cultural_references_in/" target="_blank">Reddit</a> and <a href="https://steamcommunity.com/app/480490/discussions/0/3046105389666130150/" target="_blank">Steam</a>:</span><br /><br />• <b>Quasiparticle - </b>the "Q" in the "<a href="https://prey.fandom.com/wiki/TS-QPB-S11_Quasiparticle_Beam_Emitter#Advanced_Q-Beam" target="_blank">Q-Beam</a>" gun. Quasiparticles are really just a theoretical framework for simplifying the physics of uniform matter [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasiparticle" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. They are not physical particles in the conventional sense. But e.g. a phonon, a quantity of sound, in a solid material, so tiny that it is discrete (quantum) so considered to behave like a particle. Or an "electron hole" in a semi-conductor material, that appears to move, as electrons shuffle over in the opposite direction, between the atoms in the solid.</div><div><br /></div><div>So a projected beam of quasiparticles makes no conventional sense. There's no medium to be moving through. And their supposed volatility (in game) doesn't have any particular analogue. "Excited" states are just any state of the material above the ground state (e.g. absolute zero temperature for phonons). <br /><br />For this language to make sense, there would need to some newly discovered universally pervasive ether, or something through which excitations could travel. Otherwise it's just a standard particle canon. Maybe they wanted to have the "Q" prefix, cos it sounded cool, like "quantum", but more exotic.</div><div><br /></div><div>• <b>Fusion reactor - </b>right in the bottom of the station, appears to be structured like a conventional Tokamak [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tokamak" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. The toroidal shape is intended to allow dynamically stable magnetic confinement of a super-heated plasma. The state of matter where electrons are no longer bound to atomic nuclei. The fuel (plasma) is typically heavy hydrogen isotopes (deuterium and tritium). It's heated electrically in the chamber, first, then adiabatically by compression into a much more confined space, by applying super-conducting magnetic fields. All so that the atomic nuclei will collide frequently enough, at high enough speed, so as to produce a sufficient number of fusion events, that liberate more energy and output more heat than is put in.<br /><br />The problem with the Talos station is there doesn't appear to be anywhere to dump the excess heat. Which is a necessary requirement for all power generators - fundamentally heat engines [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_engine" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. Useful 'work' is extracted from the flow of heat from a hot source to a cold sink. On Earth the sink would typically be the atmosphere, ocean or ground. Which in turn radiate into space. Spacecraft, in a vacuum, must shed waste heat directly as blackbody radiation - photons, typically peaking in infrared wavelengths. <br /><br />Even the ISS has substantial radiator panels for this, and nuclear propelled deep-space craft tend to have even more. Talos appears to be coated mostly in blue, presumably solar panels. No radiators.</div><div><br /></div><div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dSxd2CRnG2I/YOK0-qizQoI/AAAAAAABA6g/RnD2rsvNks8O-rTtqZT5mmEN3yEmQvGaACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-05%2BTokamaks.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="1284" height="244" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-dSxd2CRnG2I/YOK0-qizQoI/AAAAAAABA6g/RnD2rsvNks8O-rTtqZT5mmEN3yEmQvGaACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h244/2021-07-05%2BTokamaks.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Left: repairing the reactor core in Prey.<br />Right: the DIII-D experimental tokamak fusion reactor completed in the late 1980s.</td></tr></tbody></table><br /><br /></div><div>• <b>Typhon -</b> "...was a monstrous serpentine giant and one of the deadliest creatures in Greek mythology [that] attempted to overthrow Zeus for the supremacy of the cosmos." [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhon" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>]. Illustrations look somewhat similar to the phantoms in game, particularly with the snake fingers.</div><div><br />• <b>Mirror Neurons - </b>the typhon are said to lack this brain structure, although I didn't particularly think they even had brains, or even cells, per say...? </div><div><br /></div><div>Also, injecting mirror neurons [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mirror_neuron" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] specifically makes little sense, given that the cell types are various and not specific to their function. It is the structural connections within the brain that cause them to fire in association with perceiving other people/entities performing familiar actions. Although, we're in a universe with Penrosian explanation for consciousness, so I guess we're setting aside the patternist philosophy of mind.<br /><br />Training a typhon by immersing them in the sensory experiences of a specific person makes more sense. Embodying them. Showing event from a specific perspective is known to engender empathy for that person, e.g. in TV shows, even when the protagonist becomes increasingly unlikeable, as in Breaking Bad.</div><div><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VyzjCsYCVFw/YOKrtZTf4WI/AAAAAAABA6Y/TZy40T3R9boKva__qSxykv-m05l9lvA7gCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-07-05%2BMirror%2Bneurons%2Bemail%2B1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="499" data-original-width="1020" height="313" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-VyzjCsYCVFw/YOKrtZTf4WI/AAAAAAABA6Y/TZy40T3R9boKva__qSxykv-m05l9lvA7gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h313/2021-07-05%2BMirror%2Bneurons%2Bemail%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pre-shadowing much..?</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-71127603852046009542021-05-03T08:04:00.005+01:002021-07-07T02:27:52.750+01:00Musk - worst than a flawed genius?<p><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Jx1OFTf9-NU/YI-fmLfquaI/AAAAAAAA-0A/HxvuIiCLZ78YTg2GyExJlpLxlVkuqANmQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-05-03-07-59-45-3923827.jpg" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" data-original-height="380" data-original-width="628" height="194" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Jx1OFTf9-NU/YI-fmLfquaI/AAAAAAAA-0A/HxvuIiCLZ78YTg2GyExJlpLxlVkuqANmQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-05-03-07-59-45-3923827.jpg" width="320" /></a>In response to <a href="https://www.facebook.com/nikola.danaylov/posts/10106348075433230?__cft__[0]=AZU3ajhDrXj0g0mrVc5_sqv64Fl-ngYS-YWYLZqhqoRAccMQEJd76duE6YBrL2qEU3eb5qiMVo69BQelPiIvvV6ugNjNXEUdDd2-iNlC0oL5x3Z0s6jUyfTAb_bGDWmiD4w&__tn__=%2CO%2CP-R" target="_blank">this Facebook post</a>, by Nikola Danaylov, linking <a href="https://www.currentaffairs.org/2021/04/surely-we-can-do-better-than-elon-musk/?fbclid=IwAR1ttTpaH36PhM93D2ZKmPg0ApQWqeNEHdOYE18DjCzImLbeiyX5KjKOUtU" target="_blank">this Current Affairs article</a>...<br /><br />I feel that Musk has been a necessary catalyst for essential technological changes. Given the major societal problems we have from excessive wealth inequality and corrupt capitalism. (And endemic misplaced belief in the "great man" narrative.) But he's an only-barely-good-enough solution. Like chopping off a gangrenous limb, rather than administering antibiotics in time, etc.</p><div data-contents="true"><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="e28ga-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="e28ga-0-0"><span data-offset-key="e28ga-0-0" end="4" spellcheck="false" start="0">From</span><span data-offset-key="e28ga-1-0"> his public behaviour, he certainly appears to be a narcissist. Reports, via <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/elon-musk-tesla-life-inside-gigafactory/" target="_blank">Wired</a>, highlighting his workplace antics (random firings, appalling safety practices, etc). The <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/03/media/elon-musk-testifies" target="_blank">diver smearing</a> debacle, etc. Even his string of marriages, push me towards agreeing that he might well have diagnosable ASPD/sociopathy/psychopathy. (Any hints of conduct disorder in childhood..?)<span><a name='more'></a></span></span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="1dqle-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="1dqle-0-0">I think there's been, in recent years, an encouraging rise in awareness of the characteristics of sociopaths, and the issues that their lack of guilt, empathy, etc, tend to cause. I discovered that an online friend was one, after an incident, and it opened my eyes to them. It let me spot others, like streamers in the gaming community, who later turned out to have also done harm to others.</div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="32uba-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="32uba-0-0"><span data-offset-key="32uba-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="9b3o6-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="9b3o6-0-0"><span data-offset-key="9b3o6-0-0" end="3" spellcheck="false" start="0">Our</span><span data-offset-key="9b3o6-1-0"> societal conditions have promoted so many ASPD men (overwhelmingly) to the top. I firmly believe Boris Johnson and perhaps all of the UK government's cabinet fit in this category, Dominic Cummings being a very clear example of sociopath. Trump, of course, Bolsonaro and many other heads of state, as well as CEOs, etc. It's extremely worrying. And goes hand in hand with misinformation, as they are naturally skilled manipulators of other's opinions.</span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="7egdp-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="7egdp-0-0"><span data-offset-key="7egdp-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="cnhm3-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="cnhm3-0-0"><span data-offset-key="cnhm3-0-0" end="4" spellcheck="false" start="0">This</span><span data-offset-key="cnhm3-1-0"> is way I have ambivalence about Musk's repeated references to Bank's Culture novels. I love them and their hopeful (attainable) ideology. But I suspect that it doesn't matter if that means anything to Musk, internally; he knows what appeals to his engineering employees, to capture their enthusiasm. The power of passing cultural references, etc.</span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="fcm9m-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="fcm9m-0-0"><span data-offset-key="fcm9m-0-0"><br data-text="true" /></span></div></div><div data-block="true" data-editor="1bom7" data-offset-key="66ili-0-0"><div class="_1mf _1mj" data-offset-key="66ili-0-0"><span data-offset-key="66ili-0-0">Musk's pressing of underground transport tubes for individual cars really struck me as a solution for the 1%, in it's massive inefficiency. (Although, I *am* onboard with fully autonomous transport being a total game changer.) Also interesting to read that linked through article on Starlink being fundamentally limited in it's customer capacity, too. I thought it would be a too-good-to-be-true surprise if it were possible to break with the <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2007/05/wireless-wonderings.html">physics of wireless data transmission</a>, just like that.<br /><br />►<b>2021-07-07 Addendum:</b> I'd not realised just how massive and rapidly bubbling Musk's <i>personal </i>wealth is... Blue line, compared Ford, MacDonalds and Kazakhstan:<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uf262gbDI6Y/YOUAxZhX1cI/AAAAAAABBAY/3Jfab5VrqmEnlHX6x1d2kVNSTQM8PLP5wCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-07-07-02-17-20-5037478.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="580" data-original-width="863" height="430" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uf262gbDI6Y/YOUAxZhX1cI/AAAAAAABBAY/3Jfab5VrqmEnlHX6x1d2kVNSTQM8PLP5wCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h430/Cropper2021-07-07-02-17-20-5037478.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://youtu.be/S_0geClYYJI?t=55" target="_blank">YouTube - Insider News</a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></div></div></div>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-63367280071345953972021-01-11T23:29:00.107+00:002021-07-19T23:43:33.589+01:00Covid-19 (Part 4) - The Brexit Resurgence<p><span style="font-size: small;"><b>Updates index:</b></span></p><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><span style="font-size: small;"> <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-10">2021-01-10</a> - UK situational report - 12 reasons...<br /></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"> <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-16">2021-01-16</a> - Reevaluating - lockdown 3 takes effect.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"> <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-18">2021-01-18</a> - Surging inequalities.</span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-20">2021-01-20</a> - (Minor additions.)</span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-01-29">2021-01-29</a> - Contagion dynamics vs testing.</span></span></span></span></li><li><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2021/01/covid-19-part-4-brexit-resurgence.html#2021-02-11">2021-02-11</a> - Vaccination & Immunity Outlook.</span></span></span></span></span></span> </span></span></li></ul><p></p><p><span style="font-size: small;"><b> </b></span></p><p><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-01-10"></a><b> ► 2021-01-10 Sitrep - 12 reasons things will get much worst!:</b></span></p><p>In the UK, we're back in a situation a lot like March, when our (so called) government was disastrously inactive in the face of rapid exponential growth of coronavirus infections. They seem to have given up on containing the spread again.<br /></p><p>The scariness of inaction spurred me to write <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-deadly-wake-up-call-to.html">my first Covid-19 mega-blog post</a>, initially about exponential transmission. Following up with <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html">part 2</a> and <a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#more">part 3</a>. I looked at all aspects of the Covid situation (and beyond) in the Anglosphere and the world in general. I'll try to revisit some of those topics and my predictions, below, as and when I'm able.</p><p>Thankfully there was enough public alarm to instigate action from the bottom up. The much talk about the nature of exponential graphs, thereafter. But it seems we've largely been overlooking the multiplicative nature of case growth again! In different ways, perhaps.</p><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">In many ways, the situation is now <i>far worst than March</i>. Despite having 2 vaccines in use and a 3rd approved, way ahead of the absolute most optimistic 12-18 month time frame (that was the expectation 9 months ago). Plus other positive developments, including mandated mask use and refined treatment protocols apparently halving hospital mortality rates.</span></div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div style="text-align: left;">See <a href="https://www.independentsage.org/weekly-briefing-8-january-2021/" target="_blank">Independent SAGE</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1347189193575985156" target="_blank">Christina Pagel</a> for the best briefings on the UK situation. But here's my rundown of why this peak is almost certain to be <i>an order of magnitude worst than the first</i> (in number of deaths, lasting illness, trauma, distress and collateral damage):</div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">(1) More cases and hospitalisations than the April peak</span> </b>- a couple weeks ago (late December 2020) we exceeded the total number of Covid patients during the first outbreak peak (back in April) ~20k. As of 9th Jan we're 50% above that eye-watering level, at ~30k:<br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fJjwQOBsffo/X_1cPG1XXAI/AAAAAAAA6n0/_2KaR2UkTGIdd9xGXgKog1iG8vwDm9L3ACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-09-03-02-47-7769540%2Bcrop%2B1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="436" data-original-width="639" height="436" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-fJjwQOBsffo/X_1cPG1XXAI/AAAAAAAA6n0/_2KaR2UkTGIdd9xGXgKog1iG8vwDm9L3ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h436/Cropper2021-01-09-03-02-47-7769540%2Bcrop%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span>Official <a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare">GOV.UK graph</a> from 2021-01-09</span>.</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;">... And we're nowhere near peaking yet. The months long period of high transmission (from <a href="https://twitter.com/Venus_Salem_/status/1343910656957886464" target="_blank">September school re-openings</a>, onwards) has accumulated many severe cases. There's around 2 weeks delay before the ill become severe enough for hospitalisation. Then often (many) more weeks for recovery, while deaths typically come in at about a month after initial infection.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;">There were rapid rises in cases in early to mid December [<a href="https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-surging-ahead-of-christmas" target="_blank">Covid-19 app study</a>], even before the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/21/boris-johnson-cabinet-uk-travel-ban-ministers-covid" target="_blank">last minute partially aborted Christmas</a> holiday itself. In terms of hospitalisations, we're only just starting to see the impact of that [<i>when I started typing this up on 5th Jan</i>]. With New Year's celebrations then a perfect turbo charger, given the week long (asymptomatic) incubation period between events, multiplying up the effect.</div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> </span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><b> </b>From the graph below: the last 2 week period, with ~78% higher (50k-60k) cases than the fortnight before, hasn't manifested in the hospitalisation figures yet!:</div><div style="text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-clkknonKM7c/X_nzdAm2HyI/AAAAAAAA6bA/sXaT8V6F4ZsOWmp-FcaDqcAP0LmqB4O2gCLcBGAsYHQ/ErOWtpRXIAAOikL.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img data-original-height="696" data-original-width="898" height="495" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-clkknonKM7c/X_nzdAm2HyI/AAAAAAAA6bA/sXaT8V6F4ZsOWmp-FcaDqcAP0LmqB4O2gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h495/ErOWtpRXIAAOikL.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Christina Pagel [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1347597985144860672" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span><span><a name='more'></a></span><!--more--></span><span><!--more--></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(2) Hospitals exceeding capacity already</b></span> - in London and the South east. News reports might talk about percentage of available beds filled. But that 'surge capacity' is already expanded well beyond a normal winter! With no more staff, just spread thinner and even more exhausted (with no novelty factor and no end in sight). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The London Nightingale (former Excel Center) isn't even being used for Covid this time, and they can't find the enough regular staff to provide other care there [<a href="https://metro.co.uk/2021/01/02/no-magic-pile-of-nurses-to-staff-nightingale-hospitals-rcn-warns-13837311/" target="_blank">Metro</a>]. Number of nurses diminish thanks to a decade of real terms pay cuts by the Tories and their jingoistic rejection of workers from over-seas, etc.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R5kh-KbsFtE/X_n7pL5nELI/AAAAAAAA6bg/OD6OrMQAo3wbleTmurhPDaC2Hy5142nIACLcBGAsYHQ/ErObVz2XcAAl4K0.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="958" height="464" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-R5kh-KbsFtE/X_n7pL5nELI/AAAAAAAA6bg/OD6OrMQAo3wbleTmurhPDaC2Hy5142nIACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h464/ErObVz2XcAAl4K0.png" width="640" /></a></div><br />ICUs, by name, make <i>intensive </i>use of highly skilled staff and expensive equipment. So it's very hard to expand capacity. The 50% increase, above, is unprecedented. With shell-shocked doctors having no idea what they can do next. 6 days ago some indicated a week before total overwhelm [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55559727" target="_blank">BBC News</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Expanding capacity is only part of the story - they've also cancelled urgent surgeries (that might need ICU recovery, etc) to accommodate more severe Covid patients [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/08/the-worst-by-a-cataclysmic-margin-the-race-to-save-the-nhs-from-covid?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3F-Y8KQeI-mhft4NUgm1M0WqLXu7Kki1QleJXc1f5HD6qcuWuFVLR0FRU#Echobox=1610093202" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. There's over 3 times more virus cases in ICU than the previous worst winter flu seasons... So far!:<br /> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-i1FIm1pH2LE/X_n6rX0cvyI/AAAAAAAA6bY/5pfcT3h2DscmlAjcju6Ro-L-7FLT7_RgwCLcBGAsYHQ/Screenshot_20210108-115203%2Bcrop.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="595" data-original-width="1080" height="352" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-i1FIm1pH2LE/X_n6rX0cvyI/AAAAAAAA6bY/5pfcT3h2DscmlAjcju6Ro-L-7FLT7_RgwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h352/Screenshot_20210108-115203%2Bcrop.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">John Burner-Murdoch [<a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1347200811303055364" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</span></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Deaths <i>had </i>been noticeably lower, as a proportion of hospitalisations, so far in this second peak - compare graph below to first one, top. Thanks to refined treatment protocols, knowing which drugs work best, avoiding ventilators where possible in favour of oxygen alone, etc.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QjaZRW9K8p4/X_TnpcZJj6I/AAAAAAAA6JE/VacbAnyA93kuUC7IkwRRQpLTZsBtJs1IwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-05-22-21-14-0960869%2Bdeaths%2Bcut%2Bdown.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="462" data-original-width="584" height="317" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-QjaZRW9K8p4/X_TnpcZJj6I/AAAAAAAA6JE/VacbAnyA93kuUC7IkwRRQpLTZsBtJs1IwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h317/Cropper2021-01-05-22-21-14-0960869%2Bdeaths%2Bcut%2Bdown.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths">https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths</a></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div>But outcomes will swing drastically in the other direction, when hospital capacity is substantially exceeded. For those unable to get any professional treatment, I expect deaths per case will shoot up from <0.5% to closer to 4% plus. Mirroring the scary Chinese stats we say in infographics, at the beginning of the pandemic. The psychological impact of having a loved one(s) slowly dying, unaided, in one's own home... That alone will do terrible lasting harms.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This spectre of masses dying in their homes was first prominently raised by the modelling <a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf">from Imperial College</a>, released on March 16th, spurring the first lockdown.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bBmAxZ_VjN8/X_Tq8EQHlnI/AAAAAAAA6JQ/Ccr-3BIpep4_FtduZi6cZ6qkjwKQjncaACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2020-03-17-09-03-16-8514175.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="397" data-original-width="640" height="398" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-bBmAxZ_VjN8/X_Tq8EQHlnI/AAAAAAAA6JQ/Ccr-3BIpep4_FtduZi6cZ6qkjwKQjncaACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h398/Cropper2020-03-17-09-03-16-8514175.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><br /><span style="font-size: normal;">Red line (above) is an estimated ICU<span><span><span><span> surge </span></span>capacity = 8 beds per 100k population (arguably too optimistic). We're currently at around 4 occupied ICU beds per 100k, nationally. But London and the Southeast are at their limit already, with often 300% normal capacity.</span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">It's
valid to look at this early modelling because the numbers of people now
immune from past infections (around 10-15% of population) and the first few vaccinations (<2%) are still
relatively small. Modelling I've previous looked at showed that we
shouldn't expect to see a noticeably reduced rate of spread until we're
very close to herd immunity. Just due to the nature of exponential
transmission.</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span> <br /></span></span></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span>The blue, 'flattened' curve modelled a (native) R<span>0</span> of 2.2-2.4 (I think). In theory, we should expect a peak more gradual than that, with mask use and (partial) 'lockdown' mitigating spread. So I 'd guestimate that instead of exceeding ICU capacity by 10 times, it might be closer to ~5 times (if we're relatively lucky). </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">At the moment the R<span>0</span> value is around 1.1 to 1.3... <br /></span></span></div><p></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(3) The new UK virus variant</b></span> - Covid-19 B117 has been studied to boost transmission rate by 40-70%, from COGconsotium analysis [<a href="https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-12-31-COVID19-Report-42-Preprint-VOC.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1i9cHrU-xhCgp7BH57c44dWNM7caLESIrTHJx8i9ex4A19YIVQvOyG_CI">Imperial paper</a>]. This is a huge problem, given that our initial lockdown only just contained R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> below 1 (infection rate sustained at the same level). And that was moving into spring, with sunny weather stunting transmission. Adding the new variant's 0.4-0.7 to the first lockdown's 0.6 - 0.7 [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1347189196851712000">Christina Pagel Twitter</a>] takes us to an expected R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> of somewhere between 1.0 to 1.4. I.e. still exponential growth.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This variant doesn't appear to be any more fatal than the original virus. But actually, a more deadly virus would be less dangerous and cause fewer deaths: A flat 50% increase in mortality per case would be preferable verses 50% more transmissions, rapidly multiplying cases out of control [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/12/virus-mutation-catastrophe/617531/?utm_term=2020-12-31T18%3A13%3A39&utm_medium=social&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1hsR9zVAUBIHWN80AYxGFTmP25K886PJ6OIbkxj0Zksk2kp2v3O_RlWNI" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>]. A more deadly disease would also be more intuitively scary and likely to motivate more decisive action to stop any spread at greater cost.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">During the end of our November 'lockdown' there was a small upturn in cases in London, the East and SE, in line with the emergence of the new variant (graphs below). Possibly showing that, even at a relatively low proportion of cases, it can cause growth during lockdown. Albeit a half-arsed lockdown with schools still open since September. Certainly, country wide tier 4 restrictions alone were warned against, found insufficient in scientist's modelling [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/tier-5-england-faces-possible-new-covid-restrictions-source-says" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>].<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nWM5G_vn7C4/X_p1vswLlYI/AAAAAAAA6e8/iGQF_JZ7JUkT1ds8fWQyzw9amJx9GQYeACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-10%2BVarient%2Bgrows%2Bduring%2Blockdown%2B-%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bgraphics.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="493" data-original-width="806" height="392" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-nWM5G_vn7C4/X_p1vswLlYI/AAAAAAAA6e8/iGQF_JZ7JUkT1ds8fWQyzw9amJx9GQYeACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h392/2021-01-10%2BVarient%2Bgrows%2Bduring%2Blockdown%2B-%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bgraphics.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graphs cropped from [<a href="https://www.independentsage.org/29th-december-2020-emergency-statement-and-call-for-immediate-national-lockdown/" target="_blank">Independent SAGE</a>] presentation (2020-12-29). Roughly same time period covered in each.</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Virus mutations happen more rapidly when more people are infected, evolving them in parallel. So the new variant is likely a direct product of our government permitting a high level of transmission in the UK, with its repeated [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/12/ministers-rejected-four-out-five-proposals-from-sage-to-avert-covid-second-wave" target="_blank">The Guardian, October</a>] foot dragging on implementing control measures, ignoring their own (and independent) advisors [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/22/uk-government-blamed-covid-19-mutation-occur" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And the escalating spread is likely to breed further, dangerous mutations. With concerns that weaker immunity, from partially completed vaccination schedules, could accelerate conditions for evolving vaccine related anti-body resistance (somewhat like anti-biotic resistance).<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(4) Weak/no border control</b> </span><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span>protections against other new strains</span> </b>-</span> Crazily, we've had a complete lack of testing or screening for infected air passengers landing in the UK. Initial flight controls focused only on China, allowing Spain, alone, to seed around 1/3 of our imported cases [<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/border-control-uk-coronavirus-covid_uk_5ff6d8ddc5b6ef6b1583c504?8sr&guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly90LmNvL1FKVmRtN0R4NVA_YW1wPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAB1qnKkYNwN_4zI0dEhCSpiNWTieTLaI4G9BFMNO5LzfwE68UiUeqbNe-yCIW8tC2bhpbnEaxxuzsOuaJHmbZS80L07lHDF5TMd4tRSLKV3CRgWru2lYRyFYic883UeuHlxO5uJbd7O3obCIEKDzoT9XmHInwXo9p6f_aeEADrcf" target="_blank">Huffington Post</a>]. Eventually there was 14 day voluntary self-isolation upon returning, cut down to 10 days in December. Very weak.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We're <i>finally </i>introducing a requirement for passengers to get a negative PCR test before flying to the UK [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/covid-test-flight-uk-pcr-border-b1782425.html" target="_blank">The Independant</a>]. But further details are vague and that alone is unlikely to stop us importing other new virus variants. For example, the strain in South Africa (501Y.V2) which we're worried may have reduced anti-body binding [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/c2aa5ea4-66b9-4f64-9e74-7c89c12f9461" target="_blank">FT</a>].<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><b><span style="font-size: medium;">(5) Weaker 'Lockdown'</span> - </b>The government's rules are inexplicably laxer, despite the increased danger. More workers are being classed as essential (or maybe just unable to work from home). And so more of their children are at school, too. Plus more students attending, classified as 'at risk'. While nurseries are just plain open, bizarrely excluded from closure. Places of worship, etc.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5b) Complacent media coverage </b>- Aside from dry numbers and tediously familiar government press conferences, TV news reports have, at most, only been able to show the ambulances queueing up outside London hospitals [<a href="https://www.itv.com/news/london/2020-12-30/ambulances-with-covid-patients-seen-queuing-outside-london-hospitals-as-heartbreaking-pressure-on-nhs-rises" target="_blank">ITV News</a>]. So full they've been unable to drop off their patients. Or pick up new ones! </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vltYBGArBAc/X_kk2rp9vQI/AAAAAAAA6X8/BM_pgRDZOkAXtHsvGTyX3RRV4G9cXMvoACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-09-03-36-16-6344698.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="652" data-original-width="1248" height="209" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vltYBGArBAc/X_kk2rp9vQI/AAAAAAAA6X8/BM_pgRDZOkAXtHsvGTyX3RRV4G9cXMvoACLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h209/Cropper2021-01-09-03-36-16-6344698.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://youtu.be/IdmzokkHjkc?t=103">BBC on YouTube</a>]</span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span></td><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> </span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Staff were forbidden from talking to reporters, fairly early on (recent efforts to give them voice here [<a href="https://twitter.com/JujuliaGrace/status/1348660644875300871?s=09" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]). Access hasn't
been granted for TV cameras in hospitals, other than rare exclusives like this [<a href="https://youtu.be/LyrpKZ97WpE">ITV YouTube</a>]. Even when heard, there, the pleas of the doctors and nurses are so sanitised that they fall flat. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There's no conveyance of the horrendous plight of slowly suffocating for weeks. (Let alone the progressive organ damage and myriad long term symptoms for survivors.) Just a 4 digit number of deaths, that we're mostly perceiving like a surreal weather forecast, telling us we get to go out any time soon. (The 5 dead in the US capital was massive news, 200 times more in hospitals wasn't.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Also, frustratingly understated use of language, describing hospital ICUs running at 200-300% their normal capacity as under "<i>pressure</i>". No! "<i>A little pressure</i>" is an appropriate euphemism for a nurse to use when administering a jab. Not when thousands are dying per day in overpopulated, understaffed, improvised wards. "<i>Bit of a sticky wicket, what-what.</i>"</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5c) Complacent population </b>- even those able to social distance in good comfort may be bored of the stress and limitations. Apathy can be dangerous. There seemed to be a contagious mood of magical thinking, with the end of the year. A very common sentiment that somehow this will mean our problems can just go away, like a new year's resolution. Optimism/normalcy/ostrich cognitive biases, fuelled by talk of vaccinations and hyped up on social media group-think. (And a lack of warning that vaccines won't reduce the need for social distancing for many months.)<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aE0IjM4VIis/X_oGGxPL4uI/AAAAAAAA6b4/TdLbap8sUQUT7wr_2gP0x8r3xUZ2Gu15wCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-06-21-01-28-1529335.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="576" data-original-width="1174" height="196" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aE0IjM4VIis/X_oGGxPL4uI/AAAAAAAA6b4/TdLbap8sUQUT7wr_2gP0x8r3xUZ2Gu15wCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h196/Cropper2021-01-06-21-01-28-1529335.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From a gif shared widely on social media.</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5d) Very poor adherence to isolation</b> - Only about 18% have been fully self isolating, as part of test & trace [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1">medrxiv</a> via <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/28/covid-vaccine-uk-restrictions-independent-sage" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-r4bKGiUs9_4/X_kqGIWtAcI/AAAAAAAA6YI/4W_lhRm13vsQzaDSR2Xaw6j6sG-GRAxgQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-01-20-32-33-6238370.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="175" data-original-width="636" height="176" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-r4bKGiUs9_4/X_kqGIWtAcI/AAAAAAAA6YI/4W_lhRm13vsQzaDSR2Xaw6j6sG-GRAxgQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h176/Cropper2021-01-01-20-32-33-6238370.jpg" width="640" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Note: this isn't about "<i>lockdown fatigue</i>" or moral failures! Adherence to general behavioural regulations is still very high, over 90% [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/?fbclid=IwAR3lnHfNpwb2J8q9FpI2ki6BWdOtHbMTQDjhWk5Nl0RsyXzcajAjdsn5OlA" target="_blank">BMJ</a>]. Especially amongst students, contrary to sensationalist reports of raves and house parties. (Cognitive selection biases misplacing blame, as I was lamenting <a href="deprived " target="_blank">back in April</a>.) It's the physical ability to be able to be able to eat, etc, that prevents particularly the economically <span style="font-weight: 400;">deprived to stop and just isolate for weeks. </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 400;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-weight: 400;">The threat of this imposition, and (£1k to £10k) fines for breaking isolation orders, has led to a rejection of the NHS tracing app and free testing provision, for a huge number of people who can't afford to comply, if found to be infected or have been in contact [<a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/what-happened-world-beating-test-trace-system-covid-pandemic-england-822767?ito=twitter_share_article-top&s=09" target="_blank">iNews</a>].<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5e) Poor financial support - </b> Sunak's financial package offerings have been too small (e.g. [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/21d77129-ddcb-40a4-bb25-c27bedb65469" target="_blank">FT</a>]) and grow ever more meagre, with more gaps to fall through. e.g. £4.6Bn lockdown grants [<a href="http://GOV.uk" target="_blank">GOV.uk</a>]. Making it impossible for many to eat/pay rent, where they to break from working, etc. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This has been a missed opportunity for launching something like a universal basic income. A cover-all, for those struggling. But anathema to Tory's number one priority of 'labour discipline' (i.e. keeping workers poor and maximally exploitable).<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5f) Disinformation</b> - has grown rapidly in recent years, with these scary times priming people to pay attention to wild claims. There was a video of a mask-less gathering shouting "<i>Covid is a hoax</i>" outside of an overcapacity London hospital, on New Year's Eve, demoralising staff [<a href="https://twitter.com/mbklee_/status/1344795588039208961" target="_blank">Matthew Lee, Twitter</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oFzgB6J1o4E/X_y2ZGq572I/AAAAAAAA6lg/Jyz0wkUy0xMMJ1PTxYRWF7W5tOdyGAX5wCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-11-20-34-15-7577929.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="312" data-original-width="679" height="147" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-oFzgB6J1o4E/X_y2ZGq572I/AAAAAAAA6lg/Jyz0wkUy0xMMJ1PTxYRWF7W5tOdyGAX5wCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-11-20-34-15-7577929.jpg" width="320" /></a></div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Anti-lockdown Covid (severity) deniers have been platformed by the BBC, for 'balance', with inept arguments put against them. (E.g. focusing on their callousness, rather than the massive concrete factual inaccuracies and oversights in their thinking.)<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(5f) Political distractions </b>- Last minute Brexit talks (and a last second not-quite-no-deal with the EU) stole many headlines (and Government attention) in December. It all helped to down out the shouts of scientists (and the public) on the immediate need for stronger Covid measures. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The US presidential transition, too, with
ongoing Trump instigated insanity/insurrection. At best, the full and unequivocal unmasking of the President has lead to more explicit talk of him being sociopath (that I've seen on Twitter). Great is it helps us, over here, to recognise Johnson and his cabinet as
also being dangerously narcissists. Who've explicitly back Trump personally in the past, and with whom we are stuck for another 4
years (short of full nationally collapse and open revolt).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wPhdODNleuM/X_oWwKTlv-I/AAAAAAAA6cE/fiPc78dx2So5ahiJ32fSCr9YwwuGBNatQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-09%2BTrump%2Bdistractions%2Bmotage%2B%2528sml%2529.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="1014" height="190" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wPhdODNleuM/X_oWwKTlv-I/AAAAAAAA6cE/fiPc78dx2So5ahiJ32fSCr9YwwuGBNatQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h190/2021-01-09%2BTrump%2Bdistractions%2Bmotage%2B%2528sml%2529.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Montage of recent sensational events in the US.</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(6) Brexit complications</b></span> - The previous government's Operation Yellowhammer [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Yellowhammer" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] studies investigated the terrible side effects of a 'no deal' Brexit. In its "reasonable worst case" (AKA base scenario) predictions, major disruption to medical supplies (mostly imported) and fresh food were amongst the many expected problems:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OyMtHzO7axg/X_pkmJ65iQI/AAAAAAAA6ew/EGgoQ1dD-zIp5ZO-lpo1fa0483ILsKmdQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-10-02-12-42-2012072.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="591" data-original-width="685" height="552" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OyMtHzO7axg/X_pkmJ65iQI/AAAAAAAA6ew/EGgoQ1dD-zIp5ZO-lpo1fa0483ILsKmdQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h552/Cropper2021-01-10-02-12-42-2012072.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Best for Britain [<a href="https://www.facebook.com/BestForBritain/posts/2420664251506298" target="_blank">Facebook</a>] summary of report [<a href="http://gov.uk" target="_blank">gov.uk</a>]. My highlights.</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Ever evasive of bad optics, our government apparently decided against reevaluating these findings to factor in pandemic problems too. So, as per the new normal, we are flying blind. Unforeseen compounding of problems seems a certainty. Even before the high likelihood of repeat serious winter flooding. (I'm dreading heavy snow travel disruption.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Technically, the Christmas eve withdrawal agreement [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>] avoided a no-deal. But it's doubtful many of our MPs, who then rammed it through parliament, have even read the rushed out ~600 page document. I've not seen any headlines claiming to enumerate the most serious shortfalls of this, as yet, since media focus returned to the more pressing Covid crisis. But I get the impression it's not much better than no-deal standard WHO trading terms.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Certainly Northern Ireland's drawn the short end of the stick, in several ways, already having major supermarket shelf shortages [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55575988" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. Anecdotes of similar all over the UK make me concerned about not getting the fresh fruit, veg and meat that I personally need, due to dietary constraints (and can't stockpile). Worst shortages of these items, than in the early Covid panic buying, were highlighted by industry representatives as a certainty of no-deal [<a href="https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/brexit/no-deal-brexit-will-cause-food-shortages-worse-than-coronavirus-panic-buying/645117.article" target="_blank">The Grocer</a>]. We may now get to see what it's like to get both issues together.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">(7) Crippled by cronyism (and incompetence)</span> -</b> The UK cabinet are disaster capitalists (and their chums). They continue to make a lot of extra money at the vast expense of the nation's misfortunes, often wrought or exacerbated by themselves. For one small example, leader of the commons, <span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">Jacob Rees-Mogg, had effectively made £7M on the Brexit referendum outcome </span></span><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">by March 2019, from one of his holdings [<a href="https://www.channel4.com/press/news/brexiteer-jacob-rees-mogg-estimated-have-earnt-ps7m-investments-referendum-according" target="_blank">Channel 4</a>].</span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">Since the pandemic started, the vibe from government (reading between the lines) has been like that of a bunch of corrupt cops, who've casually excused themselves into an OAP couple's home, now gleefully shovelling valuable possessions into bags right in front of them, while their bumbling leader cheerfully chats to one oblivious owner, the other watching impotently outraged and petrified. </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">I.e. totally shameless and unencumbered ransacking. Cummings was at the centre of it (until ousted by an internal power struggle). But this applies to all of those currently in power, at an unprecedented level, for this country. Producing a tangled web of cronyism (below), from what's been dug up so far by the few news organisations not co-opted by owners who are </span></span></span></span><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc"><span class="ILfuVd"><span class="hgKElc">oligarch, themselves,</span></span></span></span> or with chums in leadership positions. I.e. the BBC's new chairman is Rishi (richest MP) Sunak's ex banking boss [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/rishi-sunaks-former-banker-boss-23273481" target="_blank">The Mirror</a>]!<br /><br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-geiybGTd69o/X_vDFfIiz5I/AAAAAAAA6jk/nxyM7xczA-AVPEF6a0fXaQJTRoAQAyDXgCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-11%2BMy%2BLittle%2BCrony.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="902" data-original-width="1341" height="430" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-geiybGTd69o/X_vDFfIiz5I/AAAAAAAA6jk/nxyM7xczA-AVPEF6a0fXaQJTRoAQAyDXgCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h430/2021-01-11%2BMy%2BLittle%2BCrony.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://sophieehill.shinyapps.io/my-little-crony/?fbclid=IwAR0CUby2snaSr1RyHAYqd5FYfJIWd3WGbBhiAjsZ1H1Sys2zwUK63P_pXos" target="_blank">My Little Crony</a>]</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">They've been awarding billions in government contracts, in secret, with no competitive tender, to mates and former colleges, breaking all sorts of procurement rules in addition [<a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/national-audit-office-investigating-uk-government-covid-contracts-after-cronyism-accusations/" target="_blank">Open Democracy</a>]. Contracts worth tens of millions going to a tiny employment agency, a confectionery wholesaler, £250M through a family office registered in a tax haven, etc [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/15/coronavirus-contracts-government-transparency-pandemic" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. As of June 2020. £32M (75% up front) to "PestFix", a company with only £18k in assets and no experience in supplying the PPE - half the order hadn't turned up, months later. The rest warehoused. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">All of this, while frontline staff were dying due to lack of adequate protection (and <span class="ILfuVd c3biWd"><span class="hgKElc">Matt Hancock appeared to be eating humble pie - just another rodeo clown).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd c3biWd"><span class="hgKElc"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span class="ILfuVd c3biWd"><span class="hgKElc"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TqCSoGJnIRk/X_y8NzURv-I/AAAAAAAA6ls/76ArS_ImtFsLmNqL3uipZxZ7QjX8t6OiACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-11-20-58-09-7361215.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="713" data-original-width="1072" height="426" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-TqCSoGJnIRk/X_y8NzURv-I/AAAAAAAA6ls/76ArS_ImtFsLmNqL3uipZxZ7QjX8t6OiACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h426/Cropper2021-01-11-20-58-09-7361215.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span class="ILfuVd c3biWd"><span class="hgKElc">About half of the $22Bn went to politically connected, controversial or inexperienced companies (orange dots). [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/17/world/europe/britain-covid-contracts.html" target="_blank">New York Times</a>, Dec 2020]</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">As with PPE, <b>test and trace</b> contracts were mostly given to private companies [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/13/what-has-gone-wrong-with-englands-covid-test-and-trace-system" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. Deloitte setting up testing sites in car parks. A network of (often outsourced) national laboratories. Serco taking the tracing phone system, sub-contracting out to others, with inexperienced private staff, who mostly sat doing nothing for the first, badly arranged 3 month contract period. They were significantly less effective than existing, localised public public health workers and infrastructure. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The disconnect between public health and private contractors led to 16'000 tracing contacts falling off an excel spreadsheet being sent to the tracing team [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54423988" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. And despite ministers (and press) calling the Frankenstein-system "<i>NHS Test and Trace</i>", tests performed by the NHS and PHE couldn't even be input into the tracing app, initially! </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It's often been difficult to access and consistently too slow returning tests. The window of opportunity to isolate contacts is very short, in order for the system to stand any chance of achieving it's theoretical 26% reduction in R value, nationally. But almost no tests were even coming back within 24 hours, as of October. (My family had a worrying run-in, in September, with some who thought
they were clear from a routine test, which came back positive a day
later.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <br /><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-D7HRF8udS-s/X_zK3FcRseI/AAAAAAAA6l8/wT0A7Q2n24gcxq0EUhq5il7A1vk01z4zQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-11-22-01-32-0434062.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="432" data-original-width="680" height="406" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-D7HRF8udS-s/X_zK3FcRseI/AAAAAAAA6l8/wT0A7Q2n24gcxq0EUhq5il7A1vk01z4zQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h406/Cropper2021-01-11-22-01-32-0434062.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/13/what-has-gone-wrong-with-englands-covid-test-and-trace-system" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This failed system was reported to have cost us £12Bn, as of October [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/28/england-coronavirus-covid-test-and-trace-teenagers" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. More than the entire national budget for General Practices. Rising to £22Bn, as of December 2020 [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/uks-test-and-trace-repeatedly-failed-to-hit-goals-despite-22bn-cost" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. More than the total budged of police and fire services combined! Serco repeatedly recieving big new contracts, despite repeated failures [<a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/serco-lands-another-45m-for-failing-covid-test-and-trace-scheme/" target="_blank">Open Democracy</a>]. Reaching on 2/3rds of contacts (when an estimated 80% of contacts need to isolate for the system to work). Returning only 14% of tests inside 24 hours in mid-October, rising to 38% by November.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Testing turnaround improved into December, despite demand ballooning to 2.4M people in the week 17-23 December. However, tests returned within 24 hours dropped from 61%to 45% [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/nhs-test-and-trace-reaches-record-number-of-people-as-demand-increases-significantly" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>]. A clear sign the system is struggling and will become less functional as our infections continue to soar. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The <b>NHS Covid App</b>, on the Android store, appears to still languishing on fewer than 5M+ downloads (so less than 10M total). I think it it needed to reach well over ~60% of the population to start becoming properly effective (which it's nowhere near). They don't seem to be pushing the app via conferences or advertising, that I've seen (maybe some very targeted?).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It was only rolled out in late September [<a href="https://www.wired.co.uk/article/nhs-covid-19-tracking-app-contact-tracing" target="_blank">Wired</a>]. It was delayed for months by gov trying (and predictably failing) to go a unique route, with a centralised data storage system. This was a public confidence nightmare, fuelling fears of sensitive personal tracking information getting into the wrong hands. Still tarnishing the second, functional, decentralised version (based on Google and Apple's APIs), despite this being entirely unlinked to Dominic Cummings. (Who finally left government in November, damage done.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Data privacy concerns appear to be relevant, still, at least in the context of the big data deals Cummings stuck early on. They gave unprecedented access of NHS datasets to Google, Microsoft and AI firms Faculty (former Vote Leave) and Palantir (Peter Theil's shadowy US private intelligence contractor). Despite initial (false) assurances, it seems our anonymised data could quite possibly be 're-identified' to individuals [<a href="https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/opendemocracyuk/fresh-concerns-over-privacy-and-profit-nhs-covid-data-deals/" target="_blank">Open Democracy</a>].<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">On September 9th, Johnson trumpeted <b>Operation Moonshot</b> [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Moonshot">Wikipedia</a>]. It aimed for 10 million tests per day by 2021, to allow more widespread economic and social re-openings (and Christmas). At a leaked estimated cost of £100Bn! 1/3 the total NHS annual budget! Terrifying. It was quietly dumped the next month (around the time news of vaccine successes came out). It was partially subsumed into Test and Trace, run by (disgraced ex-TalkTalk CEO) Dido Harding. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>Education secretary</b>, Gavin Williamson, awarded a contract for kid's laptops to a big Tory donor [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/education-secretary-gavin-williamson-takes-23291976" target="_blank">The Mirror</a>]. He's also refused cheap/free broadband offers [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/gavin-williamson-snubbed-offer-cheap-23281316" target="_blank">The Mirror</a>]. Making it harder for disadvantaged children to isolate - receiving no education if locking down at home.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(8) Sabotage</b></span> - Many Tories have been explicitly working for many years/decades to break up the NHS [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-hunt-privatise-nhs-tories-privatising-private-insurance-market-replacement-direct-democracy-a6865306.html" target="_blank">Independent</a>, 2016]. Already, much of its more profitable parts have been sold to private companies, on the sly. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So
having the system fully collapse may well be seen as highly desirable,
for many of our ruling party. Enabling swingeing 'reforms', sell-offs,
buying in use of private providers (to re-hire burned out NHS staff at
marginally higher wages, etc). See "H<i>ow the NHS is being dismantled in 10 easy steps</i>" [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/how-nhs-being-dismantled-10-easy-steps-10474075.html" target="_blank">Independent</a>, 2017] or "<i>The Dirty War on the NHS</i>", for examples [<a href="https://youtu.be/ZTnIOh6yl6Y" target="_blank">YouTube</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><iframe allowfullscreen="" class="BLOG_video_class" height="266" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/ZTnIOh6yl6Y" width="479" youtube-src-id="ZTnIOh6yl6Y"></iframe></div><br />The
pandemic is also a great cover for Brexit harms which are 100% the
fault of this Brexit (Vote Leave campaign) cabinet. I have been
expecting, for months, that they might cultivate a winter peak to
coincide with EU withdrawal. This makes it impossible to definitively
point a finger at the exact cause of each aspect of the disastrous
situation. Avoiding blame through an excess of chaos. It's hard for us
to conceive of anyone being so callous - again, they are clinically
sociopathic.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(9) Improvised vaccine deployment schedule</b></span> - Government declared a departure from the 1 month delay between initial and booster injections tested and prescribed by the makers of both vaccines. Instead trying to give as many vulnerable people just 1 dose, over the course of 12 weeks, to spread as much immunity about as possible [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This sounds very logical. Apart from the initial chaos of cancelling hundreds of thousands of booster appointments. But it's unverified that it will work; keep in mind that the more effect AstraZeneca vaccine 1/2 sized initial dose scheme was found by mistake. So small differences in approach can have unexpectedly big effects.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There's concerns this may increase evolutionary opportunity to incubate a new vaccine resistant variant. As if we'd not given enough to the world, with the more transmissible variant (which has already spread to many countries and is likely to be equally as disastrous elsewhere). <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I personally fear that any reduction in the strength of individual immunity, due to altered injection schedules, could be a major issue - if too few people ultimately submit to Covid vaccination, we may fail to reach herd immunity. Which seems increasingly likely...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">And the implicit elephant in the room, is that this rush strategy means our public health officials seem to have given up on the idea of being able to control the spread. It's pure damage limitation, protecting the oldest most vulnerable first, when they are the most able to socially distance, unlike young, key workers. If they were pilots, this would be dumping spare fuel and telling the passengers to brace for impact, rather than trying to throttle up and pull up. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Already, it seems to have shot the NHS in the foot, by not prioritising frontline workers. 46'000 workers are now off sick [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/09/nhs-counts-the-cost-of-christmas-in-lives-and-warns-worst-is-yet-to-come" target="_blank">The Observer</a>]. An estimated 12%, compared to 6% at the peak in April, with up to half of social care staff out in some places, too.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(10) Poor vaccine uptake</b> </span>- Not so long ago, anti-vaxxers were social outliers. But political culture wars against experts and 'the establishment' (from Brexiteers, Trump, etc) have helped promote these beliefs to the mainstream. Along with Russia funded information warfare and meta-conspiracy movements like QAnon exploding on our poorly regulated social media platforms (Facebook particularly). It's a big and hugely important topic that easily merits it's own mega-blog-post.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Some anti-vax groups are apparently quite organised, training members to target their efforts on persuadable friends and family [<a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2020-12-22/revealed-more-than-5-million-anti-vax-followers-in-uk-as-leaders-spread-distrust-about-covid-vaccine" target="_blank">ITV</a>]. The Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) apparently estimates 5.4M people in UK already follow these beliefs. With 19% growth in followers in 2020 for the top 147 of these misinformation social media accounts [<a href="https://www.counter-hate.com/anti-vaxx-industry" target="_blank">Report</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f84746af-9a7f-4cc8-a3b5-434d4c08556e" target="_blank">FT</a>] reports a Kantar survey showing 42% in UK will definitely get vaccinated, while a further 33% are less certain (so potentially persuadable either way). And a VCP (Vaccine Confidence Project) study found a 6.4% reduction from the 54% of 4000 people surveyed as "definitely take", after exposure to selected falsehoods [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.22.20217513v1" target="_blank">medrxiv</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There's uncertain about the percentage of the population needing to be vaccinated for herd immunity (alone) to fully suppress the spread. FT article says 55%, but before the new variant became news. CCDH states a figure of 82%. Worrying high.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">With the transition to Biden and a Democrat controlled US senate, social media platforms are suddenly making more noises about clamping down on dangerous misinformation. But its a huge, unending battle, "<i>on a scale and seriousness of climate change</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1206353573862395905" target="_blank">Carole Cadwalladr, Twitter</a>]. Trying to reactively counter false claims (screenshot of Twitter ad I saw, below) may backfire, drawing more attention and acting as a confirmation of lies to conspiracy believers. Giving our current, truth allergic, UK government in any degree of control over censorship is also terrifying.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OD0q-ZHBKvI/X_tKfNxPrMI/AAAAAAAA6hc/RkMsmhGrIAs6Z-2pa4M2GJIMX8skSdI-gCLcBGAsYHQ/Screenshot_20210106-223949%2B-%2BAnti-vax%2Bdisinformation%2Bad%2Bon%2BTwitter.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1354" data-original-width="1080" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-OD0q-ZHBKvI/X_tKfNxPrMI/AAAAAAAA6hc/RkMsmhGrIAs6Z-2pa4M2GJIMX8skSdI-gCLcBGAsYHQ/w318-h400/Screenshot_20210106-223949%2B-%2BAnti-vax%2Bdisinformation%2Bad%2Bon%2BTwitter.jpg" width="318" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Phone screenshot.</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Some are unable to be vaccinated - e.g. immune compromised. And there are legitimate concerns justifying hesitance over vaccinations - the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has a warning for possible allergic anaphylaxis, for example.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Personally, with ME/CFS, I'm following a kind of <i>wait and see </i>approach, on the advice of our few disease experts [<a href="https://www.healthrising.org/blog/2021/01/03/chronic-fatigue-fibromyalgia-experts-coronavirus-vaccine/?fbclid=IwAR1R8e1u4TcBWidIMzrbNt8dRh7XfZFp_6BEQeE2VMh1KMS068Y6YQo5o5A" target="_blank">Health Rising</a>]. Given it is an understudied neuro-immune condition and not even recognised in terms of priority for vaccinations, on the basis of increased susceptibility to symptom effects (which there definitely are, from many community anecdotes).<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(11) Winter = no sun = low vit-D:</b></span> Addressing this with supplements would be relatively cheap, potentially halving severity of any viral outbreaks and slashing mortality from Covid. There's ever-increasing evidence of this [<a href="https://youtu.be/ha2mLz-Xdpg" target="_blank">MedCram YouTube</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another huge opportunity missed by government. An effective daily dose of vitamin-D, offered free to *<i>everyone</i>*, would would reduce <i>all </i>illness and extend healthy lifespans. Instead, I see this [<a href="https://www.facebook.com/DHSCgovuk/photos/a.412086549540174/888715518543939" target="_blank">Facebook</a>] advert a week ago. It's now too late to effectively raise people's levels of this critical nutrient/hormone in time for the incoming peak. It's being offered to a tiny sub-population, on an application only basis, so there will be negligible uptake, given most are older age. (Unless they are also mail-shotting everyone.) The offered dosage appears to be only 400IU/day (the defunct meagre daily allowance). A realistic absolute minimum should be more like 1000IU, or 4000IU, to stand best chance of meaningful beneficial effects.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0GV9Tlw_gOk/X_oYLBlpl3I/AAAAAAAA6cU/6SnFsWsHZUcekrwkQTs-NZOnFtfG6lv8ACLcBGAsYHQ/Screenshot_20210102-181829%2B-%2BDHSC%2Boffer%2Bnegligable%2Bquantity%2Bof%2BVit-D.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1399" data-original-width="1080" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0GV9Tlw_gOk/X_oYLBlpl3I/AAAAAAAA6cU/6SnFsWsHZUcekrwkQTs-NZOnFtfG6lv8ACLcBGAsYHQ/w493-h640/Screenshot_20210102-181829%2B-%2BDHSC%2Boffer%2Bnegligable%2Bquantity%2Bof%2BVit-D.jpg" width="493" /></a></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">(11b) Other Winter factors</span> </b>- Of course, winter is also worst for spread due to viable virus particles being able to linger on cold (non-porous) surfaces for much, much longer. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">People congregating in more enclosed spaces, with outside temperatures too cold to open windows for ventilation. And the UK housing market, dysfunctional for decades, forces many into overcrowded living [<a href="https://www.health.org.uk/publications/long-reads/better-housing-is-crucial-for-our-health-and-the-covid-19-recovery" target="_blank">The Health Foundation</a>, via <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/27/cramped-housing-has-helped-fuel-spread-of-covid-in-england-study" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. Also exacerbating the mental health burden and impacting (the more poorly paid) ethnic minorities more. Who are already more vulnerable, due to systemic racism and even lower vitamin D levels because of darker skin.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>(12) 'Long Covid'</b></span> - Government and media have laser focused on deaths as virtually the only issue of infections. Which has allowed 'sceptics' to point out that the number of quality adjusted days of life lost is relatively low, given that overwhelmingly older persons die from infection.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">They should have been focusing on the huge number of lives already devastated by 'long covid'. Those sick for many weeks, months, or rather failing to recover in most ways. This can happen to anyone, of any age, and might be more motivating to avoid than the abstract 1 in 200 chance of ceasing to exist (about as much as the sanitised daily stats show).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A provisional investigation by the Office for National Statistics [<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/news/statementsandletters/theprevalenceoflongcovidsymptomsandcovid19complications" target="_blank">ONS</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/ahandvanish/status/1346178650157293581" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] saw 21% of <i><b>all Covid cases nationally</b></i> (not just the hospitalised) were still ill after 5 weeks. 10% still ill at 12 weeks, the longest time interval period in the study! With an estimated 186k Brits currently in that 5-12 week interval of ongoing sickness. That's only up to 22 November, so doesn't include anyone from the (already) bigger second peak!<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Earlier in the year [<a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html" target="_blank">Covid Part 2</a>] we discussed how a Toronto study on the first SARS outbreak saw at least 17% of cases unable to return to work 1 year on [<a href="https://solvecfs.org/will-covid-19-leave-an-explosion-of-me-cfs-cases-in-its-wake/" target="_blank">SolveCFS</a>]. But that virus was different, in attacking the lungs and airways far more specifically and immediately severely.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Being part of the ME/CFS community, we know that for many types of viral infections, it's expected that 10% of cases don't properly recover. Instead moving into a Chronic illness state, with diverse symptoms ranging across all organ systems, but most commonly neuro-immune. I think I've seen reference of ~5% or 10% long-covid at 6 months after infection (although no super-concrete big published studies). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">A patient led research group surveyed ~4k long covid patients scattered around the world, from 28 days to 6 months of illness [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/05/many-long-covid-sufferers-unable-fully-work-six-months-later?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. They each repeated 257 question surveys over many weeks, compiling a big data-set on symptom progression:</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uKEFKj8Kbj4/X_1Purys1yI/AAAAAAAA6no/hWWinK_31jMK0sed8Q6Q_aaks67a6ZVhgCLcBGAsYHQ/Eq9GJvSXIAAz5Mf.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1492" data-original-width="1242" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uKEFKj8Kbj4/X_1Purys1yI/AAAAAAAA6no/hWWinK_31jMK0sed8Q6Q_aaks67a6ZVhgCLcBGAsYHQ/w533-h640/Eq9GJvSXIAAz5Mf.jpg" width="533" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span face="sans-serif" style="font-size: 18.944px; left: 138.24px; top: 1450.41px; transform: scaleX(1.08883);"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Figure 4: Symptom time courses [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248802v2.full.pdf" target="_blank">Medrxiv</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/kamleshkhunti/status/1346372352175714306/photo/1" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</span><br /></span></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />The pattern most generally seen is of gradual recovery from respiratory difficulties, but brain fog, neurological symptoms and PEM (post exertional malaise) kicking by the 6th weeks. The most common/defining symptoms of ME/CFS. Certainly, if these persist to 6 months, with no acute illness explanation, long
Covid sufferers would satisfy the traditional criterion for ME/CFS. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Obviously the huge prevalence of these new patients and the similarities have the ME/CFS community engaged - e.g. on this summary discussion thread [<a href="https://forums.phoenixrising.me/threads/long-covid-summary-of-discussions.81357/" target="_blank">Phoenix Rising</a>]. And the attention drawn to this very similar looking cohort with post viral illness looks to be setting free a huge wave of research spending that's likely to help us, too, at least in passing. US congress approved $1.15Bn of NIH spend on long term Covid [<a href="https://www.healthrising.org/blog/2020/12/24/congress-billion-covid-19-long-haulers/" target="_blank">Health Rising</a>], when ME/CFS researchers have struggled against repeated rejections for meagre millions, here and there.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There've been many, quite prominent articles about long Covid, raising public awareness and understand by tying it in with ME/CFS too! E.g. from June [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/06/covid-19-coronavirus-longterm-symptoms-months/612679/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>]. Pieces from good papers, which show so much understanding and promise, but then leap into the pseudo-science of debunked, but a still sadly influential school of psychologists [<a href="https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/29/eleanor-morgan-is-still-struggling-with-long-covid-months-after-catching-the-virus?__twitter_impression=true&s=09" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>], now revised of some egregious nonsense. Verses an oddly insightful piece in the [<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-9112353/amp/Long-Covid-patients-told-exercise-despite-crippling-fatigue.html?__twitter_impression=true" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>], covering our fight against harmful GET (graded exercise therapy). And even the [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-55369434" target="_blank">BBC</a>] talking about NICE removing the guidance for GET, too.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Yet government briefings don't talk about it; I saw Chris Whitty just barely mention long Covid in passing (sneeze and you'd have missed it). Even if this [<a href="https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/long-covid" target="_blank">C-19 app</a>] study is closer to the mark, on prevalence (13% still ill at 4 weeks, 4.5% at 8 weeks, 2.3% at 12 weeks), I'm expecting 100s of thousand more chronically ill in the UK by next Christmas. Up to a million, if the rate is higher and the virus isn't able to be controlled before most people are vaccinated. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Another enormous scandal, that this problem was known about but glossed over/ignored. Another palpable hit to the nation's productivity too, particularly given younger (and lower paid essential) workers a being thrown under the bus.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-01-16"></a>► 2021-01-16 - Reevaluating - lockdown 3 takes effect:</span></b><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• <b>Tentative indications</b> - are that the new B117 variant <i>is</i> controllable, within the UK:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uGkfFxdrswc/YAJJPWR61mI/AAAAAAAA63E/FVWQRAHg8yIA8Bgh02CoRSMpoIQSUvkvACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-16%2BUK%2Bdaily%2Bcases%2B-%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bvideo%2Bgrab%2B1.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="949" data-original-width="1330" height="457" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-uGkfFxdrswc/YAJJPWR61mI/AAAAAAAA63E/FVWQRAHg8yIA8Bgh02CoRSMpoIQSUvkvACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-16%2BUK%2Bdaily%2Bcases%2B-%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bvideo%2Bgrab%2B1.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">From Christina Pagel here in this Independent SAGE video [<a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=107" target="_blank">YouTube</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />We're still waiting for the ONS weekly briefing to more officially confirm this analysis. It's delayed from it's expected Friday 2021-01-15 release, maybe due to difficulties with stats post-New-Year. Public Health England say on [<a href="https://twitter.com/PHE_uk/status/1349844627113828355" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] that it's with the deaths data. Last week's [<a href="https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/8january2021" target="_blank">ONS</a>] report. Hopefully that will have graphs for the regional breakdown, too, but some numbers were shown here by Independent SAGE [<a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=188" target="_blank">YouTube</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><i>Bad news</i> - cases have plateaued at a level that's just plain unsustainable for the NHS. And have not yet dropped, post-lockdown, in several regions that have little B117. But the <i>great news </i>is that this slight decline in national case numbers comes predominantly from London, the East and South-East, where B117 <i>is already </i>dominant. So it's definitely still <i>possible</i>, in practice, to lower R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> below 1 (from the looks of it).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Phew! Run-away full infection scenario on hold again (for now). Provided this isn't some terribly timed artefact of increased use of less sensitive tests, etc, or government/organisation(s) conveniently mangling data reporting. Maybe I was wrong to extrapolate R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> = 1.1 to 1.4 from naive mathematics. My thinking is that either mask use (shaky as it still is in the UK) is playing a big roll (compared to first lockdown without them)...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Or maybe a large proportion of the increased transmissibility of B117 has been mediated through school children. The government's NERVTAG group were investigating indications of it being more contagious in children [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55406939" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. Inn which case, closing them could have had an unexpectedly big impact. And higher occupancy (with widened categories of vulnerable and key worker children) would be even more of a concern [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55579711" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. Let alone an even more damning incitement of government's atrocious mismanagement of their eventual closing [<a href="https://twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1350114499060183040" target="_blank">Twitter video</a>]. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Good indications that the vaccination program might have actually kicked into full swing, on track for their aim of 2M doses per week [<a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=810" target="_blank">Independent SAGE </a><a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=810" target="_blank">YouTube</a>]: <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0enW_OXRlns/YAJVj2QezoI/AAAAAAAA63Q/ryNHK5xAAksA1YDFt2yjFXiUc_G8X73DQCLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-16%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bvideo%2Bgrab%2B-%2BUK%2Bvacinations.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="522" data-original-width="734" height="285" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-0enW_OXRlns/YAJVj2QezoI/AAAAAAAA63Q/ryNHK5xAAksA1YDFt2yjFXiUc_G8X73DQCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h285/2021-01-16%2BIndie%2BSAGE%2Bvideo%2Bgrab%2B-%2BUK%2Bvacinations.jpg" width="400" /></a></div><br />But cases are still rising in the most elderly, most at risk age group. A repeat of of the delayed transmission to care-homes during the first wave. But probably more from visiting relatives over Christmas, this time, rather than negligently policy of seeding care-homes from hospital over-spill.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KwxCgimUqp8/YAJX6KyOpKI/AAAAAAAA63c/1xeh6liGp_sM50qskR_bsdQduQPdJomMQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-15-23-46-12-0615166.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1011" data-original-width="1359" height="475" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-KwxCgimUqp8/YAJX6KyOpKI/AAAAAAAA63c/1xeh6liGp_sM50qskR_bsdQduQPdJomMQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h475/Cropper2021-01-15-23-46-12-0615166.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=249" target="_blank">Independent SAGE YouTube</a>] taken from [<a href="https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/952640/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w2_V2.pdf" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />Like many western nations, also with relatively high infection rates, the UK has been prioritising vaccinations to the most vulnerable, starting from the oldest. While this should reduce deaths as a percentage of exposures/infections, it won't actually reduce the burden on ICUs very much because, in practice, the elderly tend to be too frail to be likely to survive ventilators, so are simply moved onto respite care, instead. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AfECpDhuBtw/YAJapgZpW_I/AAAAAAAA63o/MrAp2L3Llqs4qzEKqJ5tq8uNTzgZEUXqACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-15-23-56-47-5564124.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1064" data-original-width="1461" height="466" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-AfECpDhuBtw/YAJapgZpW_I/AAAAAAAA63o/MrAp2L3Llqs4qzEKqJ5tq8uNTzgZEUXqACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h466/Cropper2021-01-15-23-56-47-5564124.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://youtu.be/gKTHqyFfzFs?t=797" target="_blank">Independent SAGE YouTube</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />So, ICU admissions are massively skewed towards middle and retirement aged patients who are not yet due to have their first jab for weeks. So already overwhelmed ICUs will continue to be more so, as the time delayed impact of Christmas and NYE continues to pile horrendous misery on health professionals, for at least another 2 weeks of slow motion motorway pileup, before deaths even start to plateaux. This situation has been having terrible consequences for weeks already, that are barely being appreciated [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/12/overwhelmed-nhs-covid-britain-hospitals" target="_blank">Guardian</a>].<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jCVOY63n420/YAJddlG3ISI/AAAAAAAA634/gwQ6yoADRZU8E360qCefRiQfClai0SGOACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-15-23-51-01-0285904.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1033" data-original-width="1444" height="458" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jCVOY63n420/YAJddlG3ISI/AAAAAAAA634/gwQ6yoADRZU8E360qCefRiQfClai0SGOACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h458/Cropper2021-01-15-23-51-01-0285904.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Hospitalisations per day 1000 higher than previous peak and may keep spiking upwards for about another week (as far as bed capacity will allow)</span>.<br /></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">I'm expecting the death toll could well peak around 2000 per day by the end of January. The effect of over-full ICUs compounds the number of deaths, too. In normal times, there should be one ICU nurse to each patient, in previous surges 1 to 2 beds, but we're routinely seeing 1 to 4 in many places now. This has a direct effect on survival odds, with over 85% full ICUs, patients die at a rate equivalent to them each being a decade older. Or ~20% higher death rate, currently [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55652771" target="_blank">BBC</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-06doy1qrEsA/YALNM1obeMI/AAAAAAAA65A/powW5ODp2-83-9WTwtcb8CbrPZzGTv-7gCLcBGAsYHQ/ErnpFrVXYAAvihW.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1046" data-original-width="1043" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-06doy1qrEsA/YALNM1obeMI/AAAAAAAA65A/powW5ODp2-83-9WTwtcb8CbrPZzGTv-7gCLcBGAsYHQ/w398-h400/ErnpFrVXYAAvihW.jpg" width="398" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.11.21249461v1.full-text" target="_blank">medrxiv - 2021-01-13</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table><br />And this is with a huge proportion of hospital's total capacity turned over exclusively to treat Covid (compared to none before the pandemic, obviously). With most hospitals well over 30% repurposed, up to 66% in one London hospital, that's an enormous flat reduction in overall treatment capacity:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-BVmarxp3HDY/YAJdbp88C5I/AAAAAAAA630/iYSqZoswEQ4SzsDFNlLwl2xegomxI2FNgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-16-03-28-11-0369530.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1202" data-original-width="896" height="640" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-BVmarxp3HDY/YAJdbp88C5I/AAAAAAAA630/iYSqZoswEQ4SzsDFNlLwl2xegomxI2FNgCLcBGAsYHQ/w477-h640/Cropper2021-01-16-03-28-11-0369530.jpg" width="477" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/15/world/europe/england-covid-hospitals.html?smid=tw-share" target="_blank">NYT</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">With a system that's been utilised to breaking point during every winter
for about a decade. (A burning problem that I was dismayed would be
sidelined for 3 months by the 2016 Brexit vote, but has now been shoved
aside by that political black hole for closer to 5 years.)<br /> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Treatment waiting lists only recently hit an all-time high of 4.46M (previous 4.45M in Nov 2019). With 200k now waiting over 1 year and total numbers treated in November down 27% verses the previous year [<a href="https://www.itv.com/news/2021-01-14/record-45-million-on-hospital-waiting-lists-as-impact-of-covid-hits-home" target="_blank">ITV</a>]. And it's going to be far worst than November for at least the first quarter of 2021. Personally, I'm 1.5 years into an investigation into unexplained osteoporosis, yet to see a bone specialist who might be able to tell me anything at all about what my initial blood tests might mean.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-01-18"></a>► <b>2021-01-18 -</b> <b>Surging inequalities</b>:</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• <b>Reason (13) Tory's traditional core priority is sustaining poverty</b></span> - Another point to add to the 12, up top, about why the UK situation got so bad, dovetailing with: <i>(5e) lack of financial support</i> and <i>(7) crony corruption</i>. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The current government's self serving narcissists successfully took control of the Conservative party by internalising UKIP's toxic fantasies. They are now worst than traditional conservatives, with grift apparently an even higher priority than the pandering to wealth and big business. Closely related to Trumpism eating the GOP, causing dramatic splits recently (following the storming of the capitol, etc). Although it's been far less challenged over here by our news media, due to their overall bias. It's easy to frame Brexit, too, as collateral damage in a battle between robber-baron oligarch disaster-capitalist '<i>warlord</i>' types, verses the traditional '<i>house trained</i>' capitalists [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/nov/24/brexit-capitalism" target="_blank">George Monbiot, Guardian</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Business as usual conservativism itself has obviously caused great harm too. E.g. contributing enormously to the pain of our health services, via a decade of defunding - reason <i>(8)</i> above. Austerity cuts, brought in by George Osbourne in 2010, gave the UK the slowest GDP recovery in Europe (except for Greece, which was crucified by the bad Euro debt millstone [<a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2015/06/audacity-of-yanis-varoufakis-and.html" target="_blank">my blog</a>]). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vNvyESXmPoI/YAPkKk71vCI/AAAAAAAA66c/vP_3C36Ff0M_cp8-9IY1VWiVyM7fX6e-gCLcBGAsYHQ/ifs.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1026" data-original-width="1368" height="480" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-vNvyESXmPoI/YAPkKk71vCI/AAAAAAAA66c/vP_3C36Ff0M_cp8-9IY1VWiVyM7fX6e-gCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h480/ifs.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UK sees its slowest recovery on record, largely </span><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">thanks </span> to counterproductive austerity [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/uk-economy-latest-updates-feeble-recovery-record-spring-statement-ifs-recession-philip-hammond-a8255756.html" target="_blank">The Independent, 2018</a>].</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Cameron's Tories caused enormous misery via their spending cuts, which can probably be blamed for 120k unnecessary deaths from 2010 to 2017 according to one study [<a href="https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/7/11/e017722.full" target="_blank">BMJ Open, 2017</a>]. Of course it's impossible to attribute such indirect causes definitively [<a href="https://www.channel4.com/news/factcheck/factcheck-did-austerity-kill-120000-people" target="_blank">Fact Check</a>]. But a previous study also estimated around 130k from 2012 to 2017 [<a href="https://www.ippr.org/files/2019-06/public-health-and-prevention-june19.pdf#page=8" target="_blank">IPPR, pdf</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So, Tory (mis)rule causing mass deaths is nothing new. Although, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson and his crew are looking set to match the body count, from a decade of cuts, in under 1 year; their pandemic mismanagement has officially bagged the UK 100k Covid deaths, as of 4 days ago when 1564 were reported in one day [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-more-100000-people-died-23313764" target="_blank">The Mirror</a>].<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The most enraging thing is that the entire pretext of government budget balancing was proven a lie. After Theresa May's near election defeat to Corbyn's Labour in 2017 [<a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2017/06/uk-election-2017-why-we-need-corbyns.html" target="_blank">my pre-election blog</a>], the supposed need for austerity promptly vanished [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/conservatives-chancellor-george-osborne-ideology-austerity-economics-working-families-a7787776.html" target="_blank">The Independent, 2017</a>]. Government debt reduction was always a con to excuse slashing spending [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jul/14/the-guardian-view-on-covid-19-economics-the-austerity-con-of-deficit-hysteria?fbclid=IwAR3vPv0Ln9j3ri5sTyeEPcn26mPAl6vAwqpJpjtAOnEY9xQh7uT9KmWaNlo" target="_blank">The Guardian, 2020]</a>.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">These days, money is always created from nothing as a promise to repay [<a href="https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1337737606688333826" target="_blank">Richard Murphy Twitter thread</a>]: Government spends by creating money via it's own bank, that it owns (the Bank of England). Gov debt is essentially just guaranteed savings for the rich (with a low interest rate it can control). Tory governments actually avoid reducing this safe investment pool by reducing their revenues, to offset public spending cuts. Taxes really only redistribute individual wealth & controls inflation. It's essentially unnecessary for financing spending. (I first investigated government debt in 2009 [<a href="http://lewyland.blogspot.com/2009/05/who-owns-our-national-debt-i-recently.html" target="_blank">My Blog</a>].)<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Rishi Sunak's mysterious ability to suddenly finance hundreds of billions of pounds of spending [<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-has-bank-of-england-to-thank-for-forest-of-magic-money-trees-plg6nj62q" target="_blank">The Times</a>], for furlough schemes, private PPE/testing contracts and further stock market support, etc, has been shamefully glossed over most by most of by the media. Perpetuating public ignorance of a fundamental reality [<a href="https://positivemoney.org/2016/06/secrets-ignorance-and-lies-money-credit-and-debt/" target="_blank">Positive Money</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">We keep hearing how the wealth of billionaires has inflated massively despite the current turmoil [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/07/covid-19-crisis-boosts-the-fortunes-of-worlds-billionaires" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. E.g. world's richest up 27% during the pandemic [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54446285" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. This was primarily thanks to government central banks (like the US Federal Reserve) pumping trillions into the financial/stock markets via new quantitative easing [<a href="https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/billionaire-fortunes-soared-to-a-record-10-2-trillion-during-the-pandemic-heres-how-they-grew-their-wealth-20201007" target="_blank">FN London</a>]. QE became standard after the 2008 crash and has driven surging inequality in the name of stability for the too-big-to-fail corporations, which must keep growing [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/quantative-easing-bank-england-inequality-financial-crisis-how-solve-it-a8297926.html" target="_blank">The independent, 2018</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jzA9x7eEn80/YAP3nbRCaMI/AAAAAAAA66o/jtYlAgh7YA4n3MNOwqAwaR__rteeMnsOwCLcBGAsYHQ/_115235501_qe_boe-nc.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1664" data-original-width="2048" height="325" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-jzA9x7eEn80/YAP3nbRCaMI/AAAAAAAA66o/jtYlAgh7YA4n3MNOwqAwaR__rteeMnsOwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h325/_115235501_qe_boe-nc.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">UK's magic QE money [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15198789" target="_blank">BBC</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">In April 2020, the [<a href="https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2020/april/hmt-and-boe-announce-temporary-extension-to-ways-and-means-facility?utm_source=Bank+of+England+updates&utm_campaign=c415d8b5ff-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2020_04_09_05_22&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_556dbefcdc-c415d8b5ff-113453601" target="_blank">Bank of England</a>] even announced it would finance the government with direct cash, as opposed to buying it's debt through the bond market. A welcome, progressive move [<a href="https://positivemoney.org/2020/04/major-breakthrough-on-public-money-creation-the-bank-of-england-will-directly-finance-government-coronavirus-spending/" target="_blank">Positive Money</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Given the arbitrary quantity of financing available to our sovereign government, there's no solid reason to chose to support the markets while getting increasingly stingy with support schemes for the public. When these are essential for people to be able to adhere to Covid self-isolation. (And there spending will in-turn stimulate more spending, unlike supporting the wealth hoarding rich, with minimal trickle down.) Here's Our chancellor lying about the nature of its money [<a href="https://positivemoney.org/2020/11/rishi-sunaks-sending-mixed-messages/" target="_blank">Positive Money</a>]:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gLEPFPBatDs/YAR65eGXtoI/AAAAAAAA67A/n18FAPIAjFgcKNAQFd_5OUg6QPBr7BgcwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-17-17-58-32-5500312.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="532" data-original-width="714" height="297" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-gLEPFPBatDs/YAR65eGXtoI/AAAAAAAA67A/n18FAPIAjFgcKNAQFd_5OUg6QPBr7BgcwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h297/Cropper2021-01-17-17-58-32-5500312.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://positivemoney.org/2020/11/rishi-sunaks-sending-mixed-messages/" target="_blank">YouTube video</a>]<br /></td></tr></tbody></table></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• It's the money, stupid!</b></span> - It's become very clear that pressure from workplaces for employees to keep coming in [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jan/16/bosses-accused-putting-workers-lives-risk-bending-lockdown-trading-rules" target="_blank">Observer</a>] and widespread financial insecurity have been (by far) the main drivers behind excessive population mixing, pitiful self-isolation compliance. See (5d) and (5e), above - I was probably wrong to talk about public complacency (AKA pandemic fatigue) at all, really [<a href="https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/01/07/pandemic-fatigue-how-adherence-to-covid-19-regulations-has-been-misrepresented-and-why-it-matters/?fbclid=IwAR2dLhRjfyXVItKOk5y-3Fzkw40JUD1QAHSM4wrA_WIxmTXpPK14CceOzgk" target="_blank">BMJ Opinion</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wci8tl6_3zU/YARdxT5WXEI/AAAAAAAA660/bz46GXWp21YwMnwpJJHsov_DWuaU2eEPACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-17-15-54-20-7811327.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="925" height="304" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-wci8tl6_3zU/YARdxT5WXEI/AAAAAAAA660/bz46GXWp21YwMnwpJJHsov_DWuaU2eEPACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h304/Cropper2021-01-17-15-54-20-7811327.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/01/public-really-ignoring-covid-19-rules" target="_blank">New Statesman</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br />2.4M people in UK experienced destitution in 2019 (many in work), including 555k children, up 50% [<a href="https://youtu.be/h7o6U7udnl0?t=112" target="_blank">Channel 4 Youtube</a>]. So the pandemic has made a bad situation far worst. Insecure, or (newly) self-employed workers, due to no fault of their own, fall entirely between the cracks of the available furlough, Universal Credit and spattering of other support schemes.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">"<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-poiln3 r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0"><i>After a year of joblessness, Britons receive average of 17% of their pre-unemployment income compared to 59% in Germany, 54% in Spain or 34% in New Zealand.</i>" [<a href="https://t.co/COtt8XTunn?amp=1" target="_blank">FT</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/JeremyCliffe/status/1349276805451161601" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] Workers in the UK have the worst guaranteed income for sickness or self-isolating, out of all the [<a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/paid-sick-leave-to-protect-income-health-and-jobs-through-the-covid-19-crisis-a9e1a154/" target="_blank">OECD</a>] countries:</span> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qdY407qqqW4/YAVfJy8ymiI/AAAAAAAA674/nHiBdMWzwiENcj_AgrKPZ2OP-NhsqQ2CwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-18-06-43-42-6797888.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="472" data-original-width="793" height="380" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-qdY407qqqW4/YAVfJy8ymiI/AAAAAAAA674/nHiBdMWzwiENcj_AgrKPZ2OP-NhsqQ2CwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h380/Cropper2021-01-18-06-43-42-6797888.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/paid-sick-leave-to-protect-income-health-and-jobs-through-the-covid-19-crisis-a9e1a154/" target="_blank">OECD.org</a>]</td></tr></tbody></table><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Patching up this half-arsed mess with more support (or even going properly progressive with a blanket UBI) might actually be relatively cost effective at reducing spread, compared to the increasing billions thrown at the privatised test and trace systems. Especially if usage of/adherence to them remains low. It would act as stimulus, multiplying spending and tax returns. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Yet government is still, on Monday, [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-55695298" target="_blank">BBC</a>] hoping to head off Labour's scheduled debate attempt to have them commit to keeping the £20 'uplift' added to Universal Credit payments, past March. This currently brings a single qualifying claimant up to barely ~£100/week [<a href="https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/how-much-is-universal-credit" target="_blank">Money Advice Service</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ndizKn9PDuA/YAfpkAmK7wI/AAAAAAAA7Ac/Aq7G2lJ2OH0fNrYFlTvowitNZkLosELCQCLcBGAsYHQ/Er-FkJaXUAA-G1A.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1152" data-original-width="2048" height="360" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-ndizKn9PDuA/YAfpkAmK7wI/AAAAAAAA7Ac/Aq7G2lJ2OH0fNrYFlTvowitNZkLosELCQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h360/Er-FkJaXUAA-G1A.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Child poverty set to surge back up to the 34% peak following Thatcher, etc [<a href="https://twitter.com/resfoundation/status/1351073086590824451" target="_blank">Resolution Foundation Twitter</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• A female burden</b></span> - Acute infection kills more (older) men. Probably more overlooked is the gender split of debilitating 'long Covid', at least twice as common in (younger) women [<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8750657/Why-fit-healthy-women-risk-long-Covid.html" target="_blank">Daily Mail</a>]. Like there are around 4 times more women with ME/CFS and other chronic inflammatory diseases [<a href="https://www.meresearch.org.uk/sex-differences-in-mecfs/" target="_blank">ME Research</a>]. Often neglected of research and treatment funding, partly due to the patient demographic.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">But lockdowns have also been a disaster for working mothers, having to shoulder most of the burden of school kids suddenly stuck at home, or without daycare [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/13/furlough-refused-to-71-of-uk-working-mothers-while-schools-shut-survey" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. The majority (71%) were refused furlough, when asking to look after their children. According to a recent survey of 50k mothers:<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> <table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-88PKakGqQCE/YAVvJl3KDVI/AAAAAAAA68Q/riDCUVmX3not04Mn1lpwd3TXOAsnbzPbACLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-18-11-15-30-7909433.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="344" data-original-width="668" height="330" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-88PKakGqQCE/YAVvJl3KDVI/AAAAAAAA68Q/riDCUVmX3not04Mn1lpwd3TXOAsnbzPbACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h330/Cropper2021-01-18-11-15-30-7909433.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/jan/13/furlough-refused-to-71-of-uk-working-mothers-while-schools-shut-survey" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b> </b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b> • Widening education chasm</b></span> - Distance learning, during lockdown, is profoundly amplifying the relative advantage of school children's family setting. About 3/4s of private school children still had full days of learning, from home, verses 39% at state funded schools [<a href="https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/further-school-closures-social-mobility/" target="_blank">LSE blog</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The contrast between those with their own laptops and good quality
internet access being even more stark. Especially given government's
blundering failures to support these needs. And it's also a nightmare to figure out how to fairly assess grades for progression to further education, particularly. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) Deaton Review of Inequalities warned that the educational consequences of the pandemic may be even more worrying than the unprecedented economic impact [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55536722" target="_blank">BBC</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Feed our children!</b></span> - There has been an ongoing battle, with the government, to keep disadvantage/vulnerable children fed, particularly through the summer and then Christmas holidays [<a href="https://endchildfoodpoverty.org/" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. At least these scandals have been in the public eye. Although that's taken the heroic effort of famous footballer, Marcus Rashford [<a href="https://endchildfoodpoverty.org/" target="_blank">End Child Food Poverty</a>] via [<a href="https://twitter.com/MarcusRashford/status/1339965736282959872" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. (Social media now often more fundament than freedom of the press, in getting the ball rolling on important issues.)</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Of course, the government privately outsourced contracts to provide the food parcels (without tender). Almost £350M going to Chartwells. Its parent company, Compass Group, chaired by Tory donor, and 2014 government advisory group member, Paul Walsh [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/free-school-meals-tory-donor-rashford-b1786501.html" target="_blank">Independent</a>]. The world's largest catering company, in 2006, paid a £40m to settle two lawsuits, after allegedly attempting to bribe a UN official for a contract to supply peacekeepers. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aTFa4eoy54E/YAV-ICQ3-dI/AAAAAAAA68c/qnyAocXRh5EagtTsmttmyeVI04PnP36xQCLcBGAsYHQ/Image%2B12-01-2021%2Bat%2B09.06.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="721" data-original-width="990" height="291" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aTFa4eoy54E/YAV-ICQ3-dI/AAAAAAAA68c/qnyAocXRh5EagtTsmttmyeVI04PnP36xQCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h291/Image%2B12-01-2021%2Bat%2B09.06.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> [<a href="https://twitter.com/zarahsultana/status/1349483292362465280" target="_blank">Zarah Sultana MP, Twitter</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There was a similar story with food packages for vulnerable shielders, earlier in 2020. <span style="font-weight: 400;"><span data-darkreader-inline-color="" style="--darkreader-inline-color: #272829; color: black;">Bidfood and Brakes was reportedly paid almost double the £26 retail value, £44, for the 4.7M boxes provided [<a href="https://goodlawproject.org/news/food-parcels/" target="_blank">Good Law Project</a>]. With contents often inedible, probably discarded as unsuitable from elsewhere in food distribution.<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">• Authoritarian slide</span> </b>- Our government has an idealogical penchant for suppressing the population, e.g. with stricter laws. Plus it needs to be seen to plausibly be doing *<i>something</i>* to address the continuing high levels of virus transmission. And it won't really address the causes of people piling into regular commutes like in these scenes [<a href="https://twitter.com/BBCTomEdwards/status/1349650712444203008" target="_blank">Twitter video</a>]. Let alone the less visible daily grind...</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-iscyvoVUdiI/YAVkb9s8HPI/AAAAAAAA68E/m5Ezgz-EdeE7yibua8VPNOI95TZVeTH0gCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-18-10-34-32-9280277.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="623" height="315" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-iscyvoVUdiI/YAVkb9s8HPI/AAAAAAAA68E/m5Ezgz-EdeE7yibua8VPNOI95TZVeTH0gCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h315/Cropper2021-01-18-10-34-32-9280277.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://twitter.com/BBCTomEdwards/status/1349650712444203008" target="_blank">Twitter video</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">So ministers prefer to talk about police getting 'tougher' on rule breakers [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain/uk-police-to-get-tougher-on-covid-lockdown-rulebreakers-idUSKBN29H0OL" target="_blank">Reuters</a>]. Even though various over-reactions have caught media attention, been ridiculed and derided. E.g. two (posh looking) female friends out for a walk were surrounded by police and finned £200 [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-55560814" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. And may have played into the hands of anti-lockdown activists via a supposedly 'staged' arrest of woman for sitting on a bench [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/covid-bench-arrest-video-woman-police-bournemouth-b1785210.html" target="_blank">The Independent</a>]. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"></div> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">It's entirely sensible and proportionate to actually enforce wearing of masks when grocery shopping. And break up odd house parties, etc. But this: "<i>Ms Patel portrayed the strengthened enforcement as an alternative to
introducing still stricter rules than those currently in place...</i>" [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f3699-5639-4302-8e22-21ced45e981d" target="_blank">FT</a>] is an inappropriate dichotomy. It totally overlooks the excessive number of employers making workers come in and lack of financial ability to comply with existing measures, for many. More fines won't help there.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">You just know fines and harassment will quietly impact those whom the
police normally focus a disproportionate amount of time on -
ethnic/black minorities and disadvantaged. E.g. looks like the Met were
twice as likely to fine black people [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jun/03/met-police-twice-as-likely-to-fine-black-people-over-lockdown-breaches-research" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-DT-0l1Pif9c/YAVboG_SMCI/AAAAAAAA67s/qZjjPeZRdGQndCMQwsI5T4M8DOkIC2GlgCLcBGAsYHQ/https%2B_d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net_production_814cb98d-3c73-4a0d-861c-671c182835c3.webp" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="394" data-original-width="700" height="225" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-DT-0l1Pif9c/YAVboG_SMCI/AAAAAAAA67s/qZjjPeZRdGQndCMQwsI5T4M8DOkIC2GlgCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h225/https%2B_d1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net_production_814cb98d-3c73-4a0d-861c-671c182835c3.webp" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9d1f3699-5639-4302-8e22-21ced45e981d" target="_blank">FT</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Emphasising petty legal enforcements perhaps plays into our national character, as curtain twitching snitches [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/13/lockdowns-uk-true-character-nation-snitches-useless-leaders" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. Somewhat of a security theatre, compared to the main issues (above).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">There's a good argument to say that over-representing rule-breaking,
like this, may have a direct negative effect on compliance [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/15/lockdown-rules-blaming-covidiots-compliance?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3bNz27CUEccHwbDcd6Qya8fgmh6ZsXJvbaM-fuzggRFt_yhc3VConeA6Q#Echobox=1610773597" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>].
Or at least moral. So much more of a focus on positive anecdotes about
compliance, despite difficult circumstances, would be more productive
(and emotionally uplifting).</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">But government (and press barons) want the distraction of the divide and conquer effect, as I talked about at the top of [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-20" target="_blank">my 3rd Covid blog</a>]. Social media commenters bristle at headlines like "<i>"Hundreds of incidents" of people ignoring lockdown restrictions in Lancashire have been reported over the weekend, police say</i>." [<a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-lancashire-55586641" target="_blank">BBC</a>]. When the top 2 cited infractions are "<i>Three men inside Pub</i>" and guy filming on the street.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-PbyoWDcn_Eg/YAfo7mE0QrI/AAAAAAAA7AU/6Eb8rZxxmn4zbSkJb3-v8MK8-ULAh6-OACLcBGAsYHQ/EsBZANJW8AcRah8.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="441" data-original-width="832" height="213" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-PbyoWDcn_Eg/YAfo7mE0QrI/AAAAAAAA7AU/6Eb8rZxxmn4zbSkJb3-v8MK8-ULAh6-OACLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h213/EsBZANJW8AcRah8.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Everybody thinks everyone else is the problem [You Gov, via <a href="https://twitter.com/LeftieStats/status/1351177754524454912" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Stripping protections </b></span>- We're already seeing confirmation that the Tories will use Brexit to rip into EU protections on worker's rights. Cutting annual holiday down from 5.6 weeks to 4 and extending 48 hour default limit on the working week [<a href="https://twitter.com/GeraintDaviesMP/status/1350412683624013824" target="_blank">FT via Twitter</a>]. Really dumb, given UK's productivity (GDP per person hour worked) has already been struggling. Only Japan is worse (with even an more insane 'work ethic'), while "<i>The average French worker produces more by the end of Thursday than their UK counterpart can in a full week</i>" [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/6ada0002-9a57-11e8-9702-5946bae86e6d" target="_blank">FT 2018</a>], with their shorter hours and more time off.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Government still striving to make most workers as powerless, poor and pliable as possible [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/15/government-uk-workers-power-conservatives-britain-rights" target="_blank">Ed Milliband in The Guardian</a>]. Labour exploitation makes little sense for a nation with scant manufacturing or resource extraction. But instead much high tech, high skill, high value service and information economy, which increasingly need more better educated and well resourced workers. But are being wrecked by Brexit brain drain and xenophobic repulsion of (settled) migrants.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The Equality and Human Rights Commission has been directed away from prioritising gender and racial equality, towards the government's "levelling up" agenda, focusing on the white working class [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jan/18/ehrc-undermined-pressure-support-no-10-agenda-david-isaac" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. (Who it's unlikely to help much either.) Its political independence was thrown out the window with the appointment of a new head and commissioners, at the end of last year. It's funding had already been cut down from £70M in 2007 to £17M now. It investigated anti-Semitism in the Labour party last year, but paused it's look into Tory party Islamaphobia, pending their own internal investigation, which is overdue with no news.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-01-20"></a>► 2021-01-20:</b></span> <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Stripping sovereignty & the NHS</b></span> - The Conservative majority voted to deprive themselves of the power to scrutinise new trade deals in parliament [<a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1351594971657334790" target="_blank">Caroline Lucas Twitter</a>]. Taken in the context of US officials insisting upon the NHS being 'on the table' (particularly regarding the pharmaceutical industry), this appears to make further (stealthy) privatisation of public health provision very likely [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nhs-trade-deal-protections-sell-off-b1789867.html" target="_blank">Independent</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The UK private health sector is already cashing in from the boom in demand stemming from NHS overflowing capacity [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/14/covid-nhs-breaking-point-private-healthcare-thriving" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]. In the first wave, up until August, beds were bought for emergency non-Covid treatments, at a total cost to government of £1Bn. But now, there are elective surgeries going ahead (some being paid for by the NHS, one case I know of personally). While negotiations falter for critical care.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Legal delays</b></span> - Covid restrictions have impacted the legal process, making trials awkward. But the pandemic itself has caused only a modest effect to a system that was already severely backlogged by budget cuts to police and Crown Prosecution Service [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-55712106" target="_blank">BBC</a>].</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-52GQND6aCbM/YAfvYoZxF6I/AAAAAAAA7Ao/mpDN5drM-2YpDlu7iAEsiFx_iXWUY27qwCLcBGAsYHQ/_116570576_outstanding_casesv2-nc.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="1142" data-original-width="1280" height="357" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-52GQND6aCbM/YAfvYoZxF6I/AAAAAAAA7Ao/mpDN5drM-2YpDlu7iAEsiFx_iXWUY27qwCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h357/_116570576_outstanding_casesv2-nc.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/uk-55712106" target="_blank">BBC</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">The total criminal courts backlog is up 100k, in the last year, to over 457k. They were already dealing with 3-4 year delays for cases of simple theft. With 15% of the prison population comprised of those on remand, awaiting trial. Education provision in prisons cut and Covid outbreak risks heightened. <br /><br />Victims of serious crimes, too, living for years with crippling anxiety/fear, awaiting trials. Many forced to give up on justice altogether. I'd expect the government to make scary cuts to the quality of the legal process, to speed things up, rather than returning the modest funding needed to enforce a lawful country.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-01-29"></a><span style="font-size: large;"><b>► 2021-01-29 - Contagion dynamics vs testing:<br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;">• <b>Dispersion factor<i>, k</i>, is more important than R<span>0</span></b></span> - The average rate of transmission in the population as a whole (or
region) is constantly referenced, in updates about Covid virus spread: R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">t</span>, at the present time (as control measures change). </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">This [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>] article (from October 2020) points out why <i>k</i> is more important to understand and planning how to maintain a low level of transmission (or eradicate it). A summary that I originally laid out in a Facebook post (at the time):</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><blockquote><b>(1)</b> Sars-Cov-1 and 2 are "<i>overdispersed</i>" (high <i>k</i> value), because roughly 20% of infection cases account for 80% of the onwards spread. Flu has a more homogeneous spread, so only R0 really matters there. </blockquote><blockquote><b>(2)</b> Some people may shed far more Covid viral particles than most do. But environment is also key - indoor, poor ventilation, crowds, loud talking/shouting/singing, no masks, make a big cluster of transmission far more likely. (E.g. "Patient 31" in South Korea caused 5000 known cases in a mega-church cluster outbreak.)<br /><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><b>(3)</b> <i>Reverse contact tracing</i>, to identify probable super-spreading events, could thus be 2-3 times more effective than <i>*only*</i> focusing on downstream contacts of a brand new confirmed cases. (As UK's mostly privatised Test and Trace system has been doing, poorly.)</div></blockquote><blockquote><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><b>(4)</b> Less precise (but faster/easier/cheaper) tests can be more useful for this tracing method, by getting *<i>all</i>* potential contacts to isolate if just a few positive results indicate there was a cluster event. </div></blockquote><blockquote><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><b>(5)</b> South Korea and Japan's successes largely stem from such a focus. Even Sweden remained stricter on banning events over 50 persons (while other EU states relaxed). School children under 16 are unlikely to be super-spreaders because they don't get as sick as adults. (I'm not sure if this may have changed, recently, with the B117 variant that is >30% more virulent.)<br /></div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"><b>(6)</b> The worse hit countries and regions (at the start of 2020) may largely have been unlucky. Just a few early super-spreading events may have accelerated their outbreaks far more rapidly. (A little like tiny quantum fluctuations in the first milliseconds of the big bang got blown up by expansion to the huge variations in the microwave background radiation, shown across the entire sky.) So we should be careful not to draw wrong conclusions from local conditions that may well have been merely incidental.</div><div dir="auto" style="text-align: start;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b>(7)</b> We should focus on intelligently eliminating conditions for potential super-spreading E.g. (back in late summer) crowded pubs (or restaurants) were far more risky than garden parties with slightly more than the 6 person limit.</div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b> </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b> </b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Less sensitive tests can be better</b></span> - as with point (4), above, mass testing to find spreading events or locations is better done with frequent tests that come back more quickly and can be done en-mass. </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">PCR has continued to be the standard used for UK Test and Trace. DNA amplification from a nasal/mouth swab. It's the most sensitive, so can theoretically find infections the earliest. But only slightly earlier than significantly less sensitive tests, because infectiousness ramps up so quickly (green shaded curve, below).</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">But that sensitivity can be unhelpful, for blanket testing, because it will find (and isolate) many more post-infectious cases (the long tail on curve). It's also too expensive to use frequently, or on mass, at all. (It was the vast majority of Test and Trace's £22Bn outlay [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/uks-test-and-trace-repeatedly-failed-to-hit-goals-despite-22bn-cost" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>], at time of article.) And slow to return results, commonly taking 24h (or 48h + in UK) with centralised labs.<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Txu9qsUHcuE/YBRjA6PTS1I/AAAAAAAA7V0/9cG9a5p6mLsrKa7oVCrf2fZHw3ZXK5WSACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-293%2BMinute%2BPhysics%2Bvideo%2Bcaptures.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="439" data-original-width="800" height="352" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Txu9qsUHcuE/YBRjA6PTS1I/AAAAAAAA7V0/9cG9a5p6mLsrKa7oVCrf2fZHw3ZXK5WSACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h352/2021-01-293%2BMinute%2BPhysics%2Bvideo%2Bcaptures.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Cheap, rapid, insensitive blanket testing can catch more cases. [<a href="https://youtu.be/IZ_8b_Ydsv0" target="_blank">MinutePhysics, YouTube</a>]</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b><br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Project Moonshot</b></span> - reportedly masterminded by Cummings [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>], since ditched after his departure, was to use 10 million rapid tests per day. Back in September, i</span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">t was Johnson's big hope for reopening to life as normal, at the start of this year [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/09/what-is-no-10s-moonshot-covid-testing-plan-and-is-it-feasible" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. That now all rests on vaccinations, because there is no other pandemic exit plan [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jan/13/scary-covid-leaders-no-plan-to-control-pandemic-cycle" target="_blank">George Monbiot, The Guardian</a>].<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">There was talk of the </span>Oxford Nanopore's <b>LamPORE</b> tests (which government ordered in advance) - a faster and more mobile DNA amplification method combined with new, high tech DNA reading. It has just been found to have extremely good sensitivity (~100%) and specificity (~99%), in trials [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/clinical-evaluation-confirms-high-accuracy-of-highly-mobile-lampore-test" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>]. But seems its only being used in a few testing trucks, each able to run 2000 tests per day.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b><span><b>• </b></span>Lateral Flow Tests</b> (LFTs)</span><span style="font-size: normal;"> - came to the rescue in time for early trials of blanket asymptomatic testing, e.g. in Liverpool, during it's November outbreak, pushed by government ministers [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/05/liverpool-will-operation-moonshot-pass-its-first-test-and-stop-coronavirus" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. "<i>Made in China by Biotime Biotechnology for the US company Innova Medical and supplied in the UK and Europe by a micro-company called Tried and Tested.</i>" Another suspiciously new and tiny provider, given £800M in government contracts, without tender, so far (the most of any private provider). </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">The tests look and work like pregnancy test kits (picture below). Internal indicative strips, coated in antibodies, which bind to protein structures of viral particles as they flow past.</span><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-HcHhy4XRvhE/YBRs_CVtodI/AAAAAAAA7WA/sanu0EwEuy04PdoHB3bBVIRS8nNK-vxPgCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-01-29-20-15-19-3068423.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="588" data-original-width="1195" height="196" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-HcHhy4XRvhE/YBRs_CVtodI/AAAAAAAA7WA/sanu0EwEuy04PdoHB3bBVIRS8nNK-vxPgCLcBGAsYHQ/w400-h196/Cropper2021-01-29-20-15-19-3068423.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Innova's latteral flow test [via <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />They were assessed to have a 95% sensitivity for individuals with high viral loads (the important cases to identify and stop), flagging only 76.8% of all infections [<a href="https://fullfact.org/health/lateral-flow-test/" target="_blank">FullFact</a>]. Which could be ideal, for the regime described above (to track back to spreading events). However...<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: normal;"><b><span style="font-size: medium;">• Dangerously misused tests</span> </b></span></b>- The accuracy of the LFTs reduces sharply by experience of user: lab scientists - 79%<b>, </b>trained health workers - 73%, self swabbing - 57.5% [<a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/sites/files/oxford/media_wysiwyg/UK%20evaluation_PHE%20Porton%20Down%20%20University%20of%20Oxford_final.pdf" target="_blank">Joint PHE & UoOxford preliminary study</a>].</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span><br /><span style="font-size: normal;">Despite this, the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has authorised them for home use as part of Test and Trace, in late December [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra-issues-exceptional-use-authorisation-for-nhs-test-and-trace-covid-19-self-test-device">GOV.UK</a>]. Quite possibly under political </span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">pressure</span>. The reportedly stated, in private emails, to use them only for finding positive cases, not clearing contacts as Covid-free [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/28/how-uk-spent-800m-on-controversial-covid-tests-for-dominic-cummings-scheme" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>].</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">But there's major concerns that home users may be taking negative results to mean they are definitely not infected. E.g. a nursing home outbreak (mentioned in article linked). Also, in the [<a href="https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n148" target="_blank">BMJ</a>] "<i>Government uses lateral flow tests to keep children in schools against regulator’s advice</i>". With daily LFTs of pupils <i>*instead* </i>of isolating contacts of known cases. An dangerous inversion of their ideal use case scenario.<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">There's controversy over the use of LFTs, with some scientists reportedly retubing criticisms, saying that claims about missing 60% of cases had misinterpreted the data [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55751874" target="_blank">BBC</a>].<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2021-02-11"></a></div><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>► 2021-02-11 - </b></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>Vaccination & Immunity Outlook:</b></span></span><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">On a per-dose basis, the UK has been doing very well with vaccine rollout. Israel has been blazing ahead of everyone, having struck a deal with Pfizer for a priority vaccine supply, in return for access to the country's unparalleled 30 year deep </span><span style="font-size: normal;">public health database on it's </span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">9M population [<a href="https://www.npr.org/2021/01/31/960819083/vaccines-for-data-israels-pfizer-deal-drives-quick-rollout-and-privacy-worries" target="_blank">npr</a>].</span> Closely monitoring effects and effectiveness as a kind of over-sized trial. Plus the UK's had tensions with the EU, over their supply issues with Astra Zenica's vaccine [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/02/vaccine-rows-spats-eu-uk-competitor" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>]. </span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">A part of why they currently lag behind, for now, in addition to their centrally organised purchase scheme and longer safety deliberations.</span><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UI1yVkGVorQ/YCUvh7fRVNI/AAAAAAAA75g/aE-S0w05qast35aUHyYR6GJB5EmlmCVfwCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-02-11-13-21-26-9597765.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="837" data-original-width="920" height="582" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-UI1yVkGVorQ/YCUvh7fRVNI/AAAAAAAA75g/aE-S0w05qast35aUHyYR6GJB5EmlmCVfwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h582/Cropper2021-02-11-13-21-26-9597765.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[2021-02-11 <a href="https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations" target="_blank">Our World in Data</a>]</span></span></td></tr></tbody></table> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Despite being quick out of of the blocks, there's currently a long way to go for the UK, on all time scales (1 - short, 2 - medium, 3 - long term):</span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> <b> <br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b> <br /></b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b>(1</b>) <b>Reducing the immediate risk of death for the most vulnerable</b> (<i>a month or two</i>) - All developed </span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">countries have started with </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">oldest </span></span>citizens first. UK has already given some protection to most of those who are most likely to die from severe infections (</span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">hopefully)</span></span>. This effect against morbidity seems very assured, starting from a couple of weeks or so after first injections [e.g. <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/johnson-johnson-covid-vaccine/617880/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3rf7QC-DSwD5669dM8og0BJZkDtD-ZH9Un_xL33Xe3Ukcc6G16jjbxWo4" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>]. There were no deaths or hospitalisations of any (fully) </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">vaccinated</span></span> trial participants of all approved vaccines [<a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1356080282286379010" target="_blank">Eric Feigl-Ding, Twitter</a>]. Another srouce, showing outcomes of control groups, etc, too (Oxford/AstraZeneca too, but we'll look at that in detail further down). "NR" = none reported: </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pQDoGy1svtk/YCU2G8GntSI/AAAAAAAA75s/FdVc-mnHTlAjjiWUS0sWJnIlDctS8zLiwCLcBGAsYHQ/EtP29RTVgAAfXut.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="468" data-original-width="900" height="333" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-pQDoGy1svtk/YCU2G8GntSI/AAAAAAAA75s/FdVc-mnHTlAjjiWUS0sWJnIlDctS8zLiwCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h333/EtP29RTVgAAfXut.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1356699730571534343" target="_blank">Eric Topol, Twitter</a>]</span></td></tr></tbody></table> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">The UK was certainly the most desperately in need of this protection, with the highest case numbers and deaths of any country, in January. But other major European nations (and the US) have been struggling badly through the winter, too. So, for once, there is some justification for national pride, in a (so far) successful vaccination program.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">But it's important to note that this success is down to use of existing NHS structures and expertise, unlike government's failure with a lashed together privatatised test and trace system [<a href="https://twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1351507400021454850" target="_blank">Anthony Costello, Twitter</a>]. And worryingly, our government has still shown no sign of planning beyond this immediate emergency vaccine push. Unlike the US, where the new Biden administration published a 200 page plan on day 1 [<a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/National-Strategy-for-the-COVID-19-Response-and-Pandemic-Preparedness.pdf" target="_blank">Whitehouse_Gov</a>]. </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Given that only mass deaths have had the political weight to (belatedly) trigger Johnson to follow SAGE advice, a lack of this irresistable motivation makes a return to mass infections seem likely, with many of his back benchers demanding (premature) re-opening [<a href="https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-under-pressure-ease-lockdown-sooner-backbench-tory-mps-demanding-schools-reopen-feb-856969" target="_blank">ITV</a>].</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b>(2) Reducing spread to allow lifting of lockdown and some restrictions</b> (<i>many months</i>) - there's a bewildering array of different stats for the percentage protection of each vaccine, at each dosing stage, time from injection and age group, etc (details to follow).</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">But there's little very solid, so far, on how much vaccines will reduce onwards transmission, in practice. </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Illness severity is definitely decreased, and the thinking is that more ill</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> = more contagious</span></span>. But, for example, the headline number of 67% reduced transmission (from one dose of AstraZeneca) [<a href="Positive cases are definitely reduced by vaccinations" target="_blank">Guardian</a>] is specically talking only about a reduction in the number *<i>testing</i>* positive.<br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">It's hard to test the effect on real world transmission definitively, until most of an entire population is vaccinated. A</span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">symptomatic infected cases might plausibly be the main contributor to overall spread, where isolation of symptomatic cases is effective. </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">And the number of asymtomptomatics might remain similar after vaccination: </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">while asymptomatics don't test positive even with PCR, </span></span>would-be severe cases (and deaths) seem shifted down to only moderate symptoms, and moderate down to asymptomatic </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">[<a href="https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/03/oxford-astrazeneca-data-again?fbclid=IwAR17S_-Du-jyOqj1G5cIeNEeA2SO6pFvRI42i0yZq0jUxI82WNNmc64ViBI" target="_blank">In the Pipeline</a>]</span></span></span>.<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">At any rate, there's no expectation of vaccinations achieving any noticeable reduction in spread, in the UK, until late spring. (See graphs in next section, Herd immunity, below.) So a release of control measures before then is scary, something that scares this German virologist, scientific advisor [<a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/interview-with-virologist-christian-drosten-i-am-quite-apprehensive-about-what-might-otherwise-happen-in-spring-and-summer-a-f22c0495-5257-426e-bddc-c6082d6434d5" target="_blank">Spiegel International</a>].<br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b>(3) Suppressing/eradicating infections in every country, to prevent new strains arising</b> (<i>a couple of years</i>) - we're already seeing, from trials of the additional vaccines now being published, that the South African B1351 variant</span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> (and Brazilian) </span></span>have a significantly increased ability to escape the immune response from past infections of the original virus - total escape in 48%, partial in 90% [African CDC, via <a href=" (and Brazilian)" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">While Novavax was 96% effective against the original, that dropped below 90% in a more recent UK trial and to ~60% in South africa, with their newly dominant varients [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-south-africa.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1354929042965864451" target="_blank">Twitter</a>]. </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">AstraZeneca's recent effectivness in a small South African trial was reported at (very roughly) 10%, causing it's use to be abandoned there </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">[<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/08/oxford-covid-vaccine-10-effective-south-african-variant-study?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1612777545" target="_blank">Guardian</a>]</span></span></span></span>.</span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><br /><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">The
UK's B117 varient has been seen to have aquired the troublesome E484K
mutation (of the SA varient), too, in several documented cases [<a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1356370206537510912" target="_blank">Eric Feigl-Ding, Twitter</a>]. </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">This suggesting convergent
evolution, with strong selection pressures towards a particularly effective trait. Which might be partially good news, if it remains stuck in this niche, as opposed to finding other ways to evade immunity (for now). But means we <i>must</i> keep domestic cases in decline and fully quarantine against imported varients, to avoid a fresh outbreak here.<br /></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">So, it's certain that updated vaccines will be needed, by this autumn and in future years, to keep new varients from spreading through even those </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">nations who have been </span></span>fully immunised. Several manufacturers already started work on tweaks for B1351 and B117 (trivial for the mRNA approaches) and UK government has some agreement in place for production of ongoing updated vaccines [<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2237475-covid-19-news-four-new-covid-19-symptoms-identified-in-study/" target="_blank">New Scientist</a>]. Fully overcoming this situation is going to take an unprecedentedly rapid and well organised global effort. 'Vaccine nationalism' being counter-productive for every nation, in the long run.<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Herd immunity</b></span> - Here's a graph showing the percentage of the population that will need to be fully immune (y-axis), verses the R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> of any given pathogen. Because the curve is so steep, to start with, that a small increase in native </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> </span></span> (no social distancing) has a big effect on the population immunity required. From an </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0 of </span></span></span></span></span>~2.6 (original SARS-COV-2) to an estimated 4.5 [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.16.21249946v1" target="_blank">medRxiv</a>, via <a href="https://twitter.com/AlastairGrant4/status/1352562590489178113?fbclid=IwAR3pLVBFjliiDjrFtXOyxt3puIK_XhY-78MPEMKbzAJOlLyGD5WZrmpXmkE" target="_blank">Twitter</a>] with the B117 (UK) variant. (</span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0 </span></span></span></span></span>4.5 is stated there as a lower estimate, but some talk of 3.9 [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2021/jan/25/new-coronavirus-variants-may-spread-more-easily-so-what-does-this-mean-for-the-fight-against-covid" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>].) So, we go from >60% to around 80% total population immunity required (to relax all control meassures):<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> <br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Z__qdSPIJHM/YBdM8AAlhFI/AAAAAAAA7gA/BTyYkwO3dwc2kMBBA210ujH7k_zLsjDOACLcBGAsYHQ/2021-01-31%2BHerd%2Bimmunity%2Bgraph%2B%2528original%2Bvs%2BB117%2529%2Bcopy.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="340" data-original-width="544" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-Z__qdSPIJHM/YBdM8AAlhFI/AAAAAAAA7gA/BTyYkwO3dwc2kMBBA210ujH7k_zLsjDOACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h400/2021-01-31%2BHerd%2Bimmunity%2Bgraph%2B%2528original%2Bvs%2BB117%2529%2Bcopy.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">Annotations added to graph from [<a href="https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/" target="_blank">CEMB</a>].</span><br /></td></tr></tbody></table></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Looked at from a slightly different angle. If the whole population has an average level of immunity, shown for each coloured line (below), it will transform a native R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> (x-axis) to an effective R<span style="font-size: x-small;">e</span> (y-axis). With an R<span style="font-size: x-small;">e</span> below 1 needed to (gradually) reduce the number of infections (towards die-out):<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-HmOHNbse0wU/YBdOJ0gtX4I/AAAAAAAA7gI/2QolltsRAHs4rdB7_drKpS6lkp2Hah76ACLcBGAsYHQ/KM-2.png" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1200" height="400" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-HmOHNbse0wU/YBdOJ0gtX4I/AAAAAAAA7gI/2QolltsRAHs4rdB7_drKpS6lkp2Hah76ACLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h400/KM-2.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/when-will-it-be-over-an-introduction-to-viral-reproduction-numbers-r0-and-re/" target="_blank">CEMB</a>]</span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table><br />So, even if *<i>everyone</i>* were vaccinated with (all the doses of) a vaccine that only gives 70% protection (on average), the amount estimated for the AstraZeneca vaccine </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">[<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.16.21249946v1" target="_blank">medRxiv</a>],</span></span> it would be impossible to control the a variant, if it's intrinsic R<span style="font-size: xx-small;">0</span> is greater than 3.5. In other words, we'd still need extra measures, like masks, distancing, effective test, trace & isolate, etc, to bring the observed R value below 1.<br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Of course, a significant minority will refuse vaccination and many more are hesitant (e.g. a major problem in France and amongst ethnic minorities who've been wronged/ignored in the past). Also, older people tend to achieve lower levels of immunity. So by starting with the eldest first, we've inadvertently been *<i>minimising</i>* the overall reduction on transmission rate. Especially as retired people are more likely able to socially distance, without the need to go to work/school/etc.</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"> • <b>Infection protection</b></span> - Immunity the hard way! There have been 3.8M officially confirmed positive tests in the UK [<a href="https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>]. But the majority will have gone untested, either asymptomatic, unable or unwilling to go for a test. If we take the 117k deaths (within 60 days of a Covid test) [<a href="https://twitter.com/LawrenceGilder/status/1356637792902774784" target="_blank">Twitter</a>], and extrapolate total infections based on a 1% mortality rate, we're probably looking at somewhere in the realm of about 12M infections in the UK infected, so far. About <i>18%</i> of the population, overall. With a higher percentage for young adults (seen in various demographic breakdowns </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">previously</span></span>). </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Public Health England's SIREN study, published 13 Jan [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.13.21249642v1" target="_blank">MedRxiv</a>, via <a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518" target="_blank">BBC</a>], saw a number of reinfections (within their </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">6614 participants) suggesting that first time infections gave approximately <i>83%</i> immunity, at a </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">median of 5 months after infection. Their preliminary findings also showed that some of those with antibodies still had high viral loads. Which is very suggestive of them being infectious, a second time, even if they are asymptomatic.</span></span></div><p><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Multiplying the ~18% estimated total infections by 83% immunity gives us (very roughly) ~<b>15%</b> total population immunity in the UK. Far more than that given by those who've had both vacine doses, so far (<500k, ~1% [<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-vaccination-tracker-find-out-how-many-have-had-the-jab-12179220" target="_blank">SkyNews</a>]), but still negligable, in terms of slowing spread. Of course there will be an amount of overlap between the vaccine roll-out and those previously infected, </span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">increasing </span></span>as it eventually reaches younger adults, too.<br /></span></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">------------------------</span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">> <i>Work in progress</i>: </span></span><br /><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><b>• Vaccines:</b><span style="font-size: small;"> their effectiveness is stated </span></span>against various eventualities - death, severe/moderate infection, symptomatic infection, detectable (asymptomatic) infection. E.g. AstraZeneca appears 70% effective against serious illness, but only 50% effective against asymptomatic infection [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.16.21249946v1" target="_blank">medRxiv</a>]. </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Also with reduced effectiveness against the various variants. NovaVax was recently seen to be 89% effective in the UK, but only 49% effective in South Africa</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">, where the B1351 variant is already dominant</span></span></span></span> [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/01/johnson-johnson-covid-vaccine/617880/?utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3rf7QC-DSwD5669dM8og0BJZkDtD-ZH9Un_xL33Xe3Ukcc6G16jjbxWo4" target="_blank">The Atlantic</a>].</span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><b><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></span></span></span></b></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b>At full dose schedule</b> - the vaccines approved in the UK are:<br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br />Pfizer-Biontec - Gives >90% protection.</span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><b>But after just one dose</b> - t<br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><tbody><tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yJAWK633mXY/YBoN1Hm_eJI/AAAAAAAA7nM/nyG_CauBEwQQOIevPsxMKNnnPdXy43_dQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-02-03-02-43-20-2790770.jpg" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img alt="" data-original-height="623" data-original-width="954" height="418" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-yJAWK633mXY/YBoN1Hm_eJI/AAAAAAAA7nM/nyG_CauBEwQQOIevPsxMKNnnPdXy43_dQCLcBGAsYHQ/w640-h418/Cropper2021-02-03-02-43-20-2790770.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr><tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Pfizer-Biontech's vaccine trail data [<a href="https://www.fda.gov/media/144246/download" target="_blank">FDA</a>] briefing, page 27 [via <a href="https://twitter.com/Prolapsarian/status/1351608854388355079" target="_blank">Twitter</a>].</span></span></span></span></td></tr></tbody></table> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">Above: Meassured concentration of p</span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">rotective
antibodies found in older adult's blood at days 1, 21, 28, 35 and 52 after first doses. Trialled amounts of 10ug, 20ug, 30ug, placebo control. Second doses on day 21. </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">30ug is the dose administered in the UK [<a href="https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/regulatory-approval-of-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-for-covid-19/information-for-healthcare-professionals-on-pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccine" target="_blank">GOV.UK</a>], apparently tailored to the weaker immune response of the elderly. Those 18-55 years old saw just as strong protection from 20ug (below). But in either case, the amount of antibodies pressent 3 weeks after a single dose is very low (<10% of final levels). Certainly too low to immediately neutralise a live infection before it can replicate. Although give the body many days/weeks headstart on mounting an effective response. <br /></span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aGvJADoo8gs/YBoPNgUdEYI/AAAAAAAA7nY/T7PrgEPPTD022vME_1MJSPXoq3CCajtDQCLcBGAsYHQ/Cropper2021-02-02-22-59-40-0182857.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="695" data-original-width="946" height="147" src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-aGvJADoo8gs/YBoPNgUdEYI/AAAAAAAA7nY/T7PrgEPPTD022vME_1MJSPXoq3CCajtDQCLcBGAsYHQ/w200-h147/Cropper2021-02-02-22-59-40-0182857.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">---<br /><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><span style="font-size: normal;">There
was no data for this from the original Oxford Astra-Zeneca trials. Then
an (overhyped and shaky) retrospective analysis of this data was
published claiming 76% efficacy of one dose [<a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2021-02-02-oxford-coronavirus-vaccine-shows-sustained-protection-76-during-3-month-interval#" target="_blank">UoOxford</a>]. But with very wide error margins [<a href="https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/03/oxford-astrazeneca-data-again?fbclid=IwAR17S_-Du-jyOqj1G5cIeNEeA2SO6pFvRI42i0yZq0jUxI82WNNmc64ViBI" target="_blank">In the Pipeline</a>].</span></span></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;">---<br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: normal;"> </span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: large;"><b>► Next up:</b></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"> </div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Vaccines & immunity.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Global situation. <br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Virus variant details.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Vaccines overview.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• David Davis, unlikely Vit-D crusader.</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• More on Long-covid and ME/CFS.<br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">• Revisiting my past predictions...</div><p></p>ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0Chapel Hill Cottages, Newbury RG20 8RA, UK51.479800999999988 -1.35759940.752789308465857 -18.935724 62.206812691534118 16.220526tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15425064.post-18613663197591633112020-04-18T11:06:00.001+01:002020-04-24T20:55:18.545+01:00Covid-19 (Part 3) - Life under lockdown<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wY19kyObNv8/Xpog1K3d3JI/AAAAAAAAxIM/agFPW3dk0f0_h4MSNyfHwUpAx_3_RKhIwCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/2020-04-15%2BSainsbuy%2527s%2Bmask%2Bhead%2B3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-wY19kyObNv8/Xpog1K3d3JI/AAAAAAAAxIM/agFPW3dk0f0_h4MSNyfHwUpAx_3_RKhIwCK4BGAYYCw/s200/2020-04-15%2BSainsbuy%2527s%2Bmask%2Bhead%2B3.jpg" width="192" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Out for our 3rd weekly shop.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Exploring the pandemic situation, continuing from:<br />
• "<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-deadly-wake-up-call-to.html"><i>Covid-19: a deadly wake-up call to exponential growth?</i></a>"<br />
• "<i><a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html">Covid-19 (Part 2) - Daily Updates</a></i>"<br />
<br />
<b><u><span style="font-size: large;">Index:</span></u></b><br />
<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-18">2020-04-18</a> Sat - Misplaced Animosity<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-19">2020-04-19</a> Sun - Divided States<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-20">2020-04-20</a> Mon - Food Shortages?<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-21">2020-04-21</a> Tue - Through the floor!<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-22">2020-04-22</a> Wed - Perspective<br />
• <a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/04/covid-19-part-3-life-under-lockdown.html#2020-04-23">2020-04-23</a> Thur - More Science Sumaries<br />
<br />
<br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-18"> </a>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2020-04-18 -</span></b><span style="font-size: large;"> Misplaced Animosity:</span><br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wWZLapHoQos/XpplQiO7W9I/AAAAAAAAxKc/SWoLerf2Ta8g2pJKZY585jCmM_DAI7TsACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/index.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="642" data-original-width="962" height="213" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-wWZLapHoQos/XpplQiO7W9I/AAAAAAAAxKc/SWoLerf2Ta8g2pJKZY585jCmM_DAI7TsACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/index.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px; text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/police-urge-people-to-maintain-physical-distance-in-uk-parks">Daily Mail</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
• I've been somewhat horrified at the general appetite (seen in posts from of some of my old Facebook friends) for <b>martial law</b> and/or <b>capital punishment</b>, effectively. I.e. marking anyone taking an unnecessary walk in a park as "<i>not for treatment</i>", in the case they ever get infected. Punishment fits the crime grim poetry.<br />
<br />
That last coming from one of the most caring individuals I know, in response (I believe) to a litany of pictures like this one (right), from the [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/police-urge-people-to-maintain-physical-distance-in-uk-parks">Daily Mail</a>]. Flattened, zoomed in perspectives making everyone look far closer together. Seemingly just trying to stir up resentment and outrage, for viewership and quite possibly to undermine public solidarity and help usher in crony capitalist friendly authoritarianism (for the papers owners).<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d75NoacDX1o/Xpq5H7LpJyI/AAAAAAAAxLw/CTPEdVQV4Ic_IjgtQLWURKa31kI_7ZH4QCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Cropper2020-04-18-09-23-31-2969197.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="451" data-original-width="632" height="456" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d75NoacDX1o/Xpq5H7LpJyI/AAAAAAAAxLw/CTPEdVQV4Ic_IjgtQLWURKa31kI_7ZH4QCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cropper2020-04-18-09-23-31-2969197.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iGvgC2lsyUQ/Xpq545pvIoI/AAAAAAAAxL4/8_Aog1XE-GIEVxck32nA-2osi_HtoMqRACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/_111764835_traffic_data-nc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1375" data-original-width="1600" height="273" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-iGvgC2lsyUQ/Xpq545pvIoI/AAAAAAAAxL4/8_Aog1XE-GIEVxck32nA-2osi_HtoMqRACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/_111764835_traffic_data-nc.png" width="320" /></a>Above is closer to the <b>real story</b> of public spaces - drone footage of Birmingham city centre on a sunny Saturday afternoon. It's usually heaving with crowds, but is now deserted! [<a href="https://twitter.com/BhamUpdates/status/1250433946774462466">Twitter Video</a>]<br />
<br />
<br />
It also looks like over 90% of rail travel is gone, 80% of London bus trips and 65% of other road travel too (right). [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52229828">BBC</a>]<br />
<br />
<br />
78% of people self isolating, as of the beginning of April [<a href="https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/most-us-are-staying-home-stop-spread-covid-19-shows-latest-global-poll">Ipsos MORI</a>]. Pretty impressive adherence to measures (and an unprecedented economic change).<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4c2ysGRZPyE/Xpq8ATEvwKI/AAAAAAAAxME/I_79BQOiiuchtwuXLljQngSuW4YzhPBUQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Cropper2020-04-18-09-32-35-0513997.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="401" data-original-width="611" height="420" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-4c2ysGRZPyE/Xpq8ATEvwKI/AAAAAAAAxME/I_79BQOiiuchtwuXLljQngSuW4YzhPBUQCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cropper2020-04-18-09-32-35-0513997.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Despite all this, UK public is <i>still</i> being focused on the rare black sheep amongst us, and bad optics in occasional photos and videos. It's our 10'000 year (or so) old memetic predilection for social scandal, coupled with a cognitive incomprehension for relative scale and rarity.<br />
<a name='more'></a><br />
To be fair, police did break up hundreds of house parties in Manchester alone, over the course of 2 weeks [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-52221688">BBC</a>]. But I'd hope that this mostly means there are thousands of citizens even less likely to contravene the new government rules now. Helping to bring down the infection numbers even quicker.<br />
<br />
[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/3a654170-d53c-4efa-862a-027496fb6289">FT</a>] data shows the same story with UK retail + entertainment activity down 80%, transport down 70%, although a <i>slight </i>uptick in park use compared to a week before. But this still runs at ~30% below <i>winter </i>usage levels, in the middle of the pack of these Western countries [via <a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1250338997374599170">Twitter</a>]:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xDYPGJMiwb8/Xpq_LWgL4OI/AAAAAAAAxMQ/7LUfDPpKrGcbS6opJCHsy5lYpd2Vfw4lQCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Cropper2020-04-18-09-46-46-0340405.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="425" data-original-width="764" height="356" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xDYPGJMiwb8/Xpq_LWgL4OI/AAAAAAAAxMQ/7LUfDPpKrGcbS6opJCHsy5lYpd2Vfw4lQCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cropper2020-04-18-09-46-46-0340405.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
In fact, many local authorities have only just <i>reopened </i>their parks, after a couple weeks of closure following the initial lockdown orders [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/police-urge-people-to-maintain-physical-distance-in-uk-parks">Guardian</a>]. Something I welcome, in the context on ongoing caution. In fact, police and authorities have arguably been overzealous in moving anyone at rest in some parks, failing to give allowance for (invisible) disability, for an example [<a href="https://twitter.com/polski_smakdown/status/1249006032975728640?fbclid=IwAR2mbWhdZs4YPeP18zMeT-dTrZ2M9BhpRsyGTilVvvrPuikJqYAkUf7irzw">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
On a mechanistic side of health, vitamin-D from sun exposure may be significant (disused before, good levels potentially halving infections). Parks are most probably the safest open places to exist outdoors in large cities (better than sometimes crowded pavements). A far higher percentage of urban residents don't have access to their own gardens. (I now I'm very lucky in a nice part of a modest sized town's suburbs.)<br />
<br />
The beneficial emotional impact should not be approximated to zero, either, compared to the infection risk. Good spirits raise immunity, and depression can be especially deadly in the context of enforced social isolation. One example on [<a href="https://twitter.com/MindingtheBrain/status/1251259363085467655">Twitter</a>] from today. I'm somewhat dreading the stats for this impact, predominantly on young adults (if we ever get anything definitive).<br />
<br />
Here's another "<i>Anywhere But Westminster</i>" video from the [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/11/police-urge-people-to-maintain-physical-distance-in-uk-parks">Guardian</a>] article linked above which I think does a good job of giving some contextual examples of why the lockdown can be especially hard for some, dependant on public spaces, particularly with kids and with special needs [<a href="https://youtu.be/6j_jHXV8LMs?t=261">YouTube</a>] :<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/6j_jHXV8LMs/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/6j_jHXV8LMs?feature=player_embedded" width="480"></iframe></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
• The public are taking the situation <i>so seriously</i> that people are <b>avoiding emergency visits.</b> A&E figures are down ~30% in the UK and far more regular (i.e. non-Covid-19) hospital beds are sitting empty than usual. Alarmingly, cardiac patients are down to half of normal [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d5ac0a79-6647-4f49-bb64-d1cc66362043">FT</a>]:<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V7BfVa3WmOE/XpoxIm_qjVI/AAAAAAAAxI8/w2hhVZUnQV4W5ipodZHbUrgb7EQ5NLP2ACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_0e647660-7a87-11ea-8385-c7be92f90ce8-standard.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="480" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-V7BfVa3WmOE/XpoxIm_qjVI/AAAAAAAAxI8/w2hhVZUnQV4W5ipodZHbUrgb7EQ5NLP2ACK4BGAYYCw/s640/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_0e647660-7a87-11ea-8385-c7be92f90ce8-standard.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d5ac0a79-6647-4f49-bb64-d1cc66362043">Financial Times</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Many heart attack victims have opted to avoid hospitals, in fear of infection (or burdening the NHS). Delays in seeking help have meant surgeons having to amputate when limbs could have been saved, plus longer stays in hospital [<a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74a54/even-people-without-coronavirus-are-getting-sicker-right-now">Vice</a>]. This will no doubt be building a backlog of (worsened) serious health issues, that could peak hospital demand when measures are relaxed.<br />
<br />
I also feel there will be a big toll from difficulties in seeing <b>GPs</b> - our surgery converted all existing (and future) visits to telephone appointments, since 16th March. It seems they must then be seeing some patients in person, if necessary, because they are also begging of donations of PPE (masks and gloves). I've not found any aspect of this reported on at a national level, as yet.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
• Also from those friends (mentioned above) and others, there's a near universal <b>lack of appetite for scrutinising our government.</b> Not until a potential investigation <i>after</i> the pandemic is over, at least. Which I think is crazy! That there is an emergency is all the <i>more</i> reason for careful scrutiny.<br />
<br />
Especially given that gov seems repeatedly to have only to acted after pressure was put on them, publicly. In fact, a cabinet minister has just been reported saying, in the [<a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/17/cabinet-ministers-admit-no-lockdown-exit-plan-wait-boris-johnsons/">Telegraph</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1251417319731052546">Twitter</a>]:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
“<i>We didn’t want to go down this route in the first place – public and
media pressure pushed the lockdown, we went with the science. </i> </blockquote>
<blockquote class="tr_bq">
<i>“The lockdown will only start coming loose when the public wants it to – not ministers.</i>” </blockquote>
<br />
That quote raises some major questions, too, about what gov <i>currently </i>thinks "THE SCIENCE" is...?! Plus, the article spends most of its length quoting officials saying they're waiting for Johnson to return before making any big decisions, e.g. on lifting lockdowns. I think it's a factor that he has so much more public mandate heaped upon him than most PMs (in lieu of any particular policy positions during election, aside from Brexit, etc).<br />
<br />
This decision making and accountability deferment is striking, given revelations that Johnson was <b>absent from all 5 Cobra meetings</b> from late February up to the beginning of March [<a href="https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/18/boris-johnson-skipped-five-cobra-meetings-coronavirus-crisis-loomed-12576899/">Metro</a>]!<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dUSLTDmt0Fg/XpuT5adesyI/AAAAAAAAxOU/yVwlWn7cWHsy5kQPbYSllUY1ECrYTgzogCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/mcr9dpef57441.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="220" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-dUSLTDmt0Fg/XpuT5adesyI/AAAAAAAAxOU/yVwlWn7cWHsy5kQPbYSllUY1ECrYTgzogCK4BGAYYCw/s320/mcr9dpef57441.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Johnson famously hid inside a (walk in) fridge to avoid <br />
questions during the 2019 election [<a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/brexit/comments/e9myu3/any_wheres_wally_fans_out_here/">Reddit</a>].</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The first he didn't have time for, despite making Lunar new year celebrations in the afternoon (on the day the Lancet warn Covid-19 could be worst than 1918 flu). Next he prioritised the EU withdrawal agreement and a cabinet reshuffle. With the last 2 weeks at a country retreat with his pregnant fiancee, while struggling to finalise the divorce of his previous wife [SundayTimes via <a href="https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1251630747078836224">Twitter</a>]. During this time, in February, he was also criticised for not visiting badly flooded UK areas at all [<a href="https://metro.co.uk/2020/02/23/boris-johnson-still-not-visited-communities-devastated-floods-12287292/">Metro</a>].<br />
<br />
But far from being just a bad month, it seems he's as much a shirker-in-chief as Trump, who has been insistent on prioritising golf breaks. Johnson reportedly avoids chairing meetings, working weekends and doesn't read briefings over 2 pages long, in general.<br />
<br />
In fact, one of his first acts after winning the December 2019 election was to disappear for 2 weeks, on a £15k Caribbean holiday controversially gifted to him, supposedly by a Tory donor [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-holiday-gift-david-ross-tory-donor-carphone-warehouse-caribbean-a9332771.html">Indepenent</a>]. "<i>Where is Borris Johnson</i>" was a cliche back when he was foreign minister, in 2018, when he dodged an awkward vote on Heathrow expansion [<a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/wheres-boris-johnson-the-hunt-is-on-for-the-foreign-secretary_uk_5b30c3d4e4b0321a01d35052">HuffingtonPost</a>]. However, tonight <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%23WhereIsBoris&src=trend_click">#WhereIsBoris</a> seems to be trending largely because of right wing trolls (ironically, or purposefully) jumping in to point out he was in hospital not long back:<br />
<br />
<a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6RwEhg991v0/XpuWk7Z_4RI/AAAAAAAAxOg/6oEbVJvtWdIjwgXJIiZjuOvYGAYHOLruQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/Cropper2020-04-19-01-04-09-6231429.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="118" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6RwEhg991v0/XpuWk7Z_4RI/AAAAAAAAxOg/6oEbVJvtWdIjwgXJIiZjuOvYGAYHOLruQCK4BGAYYCw/s640/Cropper2020-04-19-01-04-09-6231429.jpg" width="640" /></a><br />
<br />
Anyway, UK gov press briefings are still carefully filtered, with ministers flat refusing to appear on Channel 4 news for over 8 days (for one example). And there's still no parliament, despite it being our sovereign power, in principle, above the cabinet and executive.<br />
<br />
Blind support of our leaders doesn't even make sense in an extreme emergency - during WW2 there was a change in leadership in 1940, with Chamberlain giving way for Churchill, who formed a government of national unity [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_United_Kingdom_general_election">Wikipedia</a>]. Certainly David Cameron, in opposition during the 2008 Labour management of the financial crash, continued to grill the government [<a href="https://twitter.com/philbc3/status/1251463022868156416">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
There's also a depressing apathy, amongst friends, that events would have unfolded the same under any party leadership... As if a Corbyn win in 2019 wouldn't have removed the Brexit idolisation obstacle to EU collaboration [<a href="https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/therese-coffey-lbc-radio-eu-ppe-procurement-scheme-1-6606962">TheNewEuropean</a>]. Or a 2017 win wouldn't have reversed the worst of NHS defunding and likely shored up provision of PPE in our national <b>pandemic stockpile, cut by 40%</b> (~£325m) in the last 6 years of Tory rule [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/12/revealed-value-of-uk-pandemic-stockpile-fell-by-40-in-six-years?fbclid=IwAR2VsU659CpyULF-TJeJ7mFqJufRzoAhjI2uMfvjRCnkvw4Bx_gpt7DX2Mk">Guardian</a>].<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
• <b>SAGE </b>(Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) has been coming under extra pressure to operate more openly [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/apr/14/no-10-secrecy-around-sage-coronavirus-advisory-group">Guardian</a>]. All their published evidence for decision making is well over a month out of date, with <b>no plan to publish until after the pandemic</b> [<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2241082-uks-coronavirus-science-advice-wont-be-published-until-pandemic-ends/">NewScientist</a>]. While we know a fair amount about the NERVTAG sub-group, members of whom we heard a lot from in this previously discussed [<a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-path-speci/special-report-johnson-listened-to-his-scientists-about-coronavirus-but-they-were-slow-to-sound-the-alarm-idUKKBN21P1X8">Reuters</a>] investigative piece, we still know less about SPI-M (the modelling group) and SPI-B (the behavioural group) [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84">FT</a>].<br />
<br />
Membership is kept mostly secret, with the justification of avoiding "<i>undue influence</i>". I guess there's big potential for problems there, even more than for jury tampering in a high profile legal case. But pillars of real science are the accountability and transparency of scientists, standing up to expose their theories and data to withstand scrutiny.<br />
<br />
It's also impossible to have any confidence that these groups definitely have a sufficient range and depth of expertise to draw from, to avoid having big gaps in their thinking (again). Many prominent scientists and experts saying there was far too few public health experts [<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2241082-uks-coronavirus-science-advice-wont-be-published-until-pandemic-ends/">NewScientist</a>].<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6YHfBwhkuGE/XprQSfoMRKI/AAAAAAAAxMk/vuxJBiTLpYEaugThNWzpetkhgqDLnArsgCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/8dfbb19a-7e6a-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="488" data-original-width="1440" height="216" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6YHfBwhkuGE/XprQSfoMRKI/AAAAAAAAxMk/vuxJBiTLpYEaugThNWzpetkhgqDLnArsgCLcBGAsYHQ/s640/8dfbb19a-7e6a-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a.webp" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 12.8px;">Vallance and Whitty [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/1e390ac6-7e2c-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84">FT</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Although, I keep feeling like the top advisers may well end up being singled out too much for their accountability. I'm wondering if we might see a repeat of the 2003 David Christopher Kelly tragedy, when the biological weapons expert killed himself after unfair political pressures brought to bare on him for his role in the infamous 2002 dossier on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Which was largely a fabrication (gross exaggeration) to facilitate UK and US military action against Saddam Hussein's Iraq [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Kelly_(weapons_expert)">Wikipedia</a>].<br />
<br />
For general reference, there's a great timeline of the decision making (and failures) of the conservative government during this crisis and before (back 4 years), compiled (and updated) by the [<a href="https://bylinetimes.com/2020/04/11/a-national-scandal-a-timeline-of-the-uk-governments-woeful-response-to-the-coronavirus-crisis/">Byline Times</a>].<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
• <b>Chinese manufacturing</b> is scrambling to ramp up production of PPE (personal protect equipment) that western hospitals are crying out for. As shown in this interesting [<a href="https://youtu.be/nCudSkIeqdM">YouTube</a>] video of a medium sized operation:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/nCudSkIeqdM/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/nCudSkIeqdM?feature=player_embedded" width="480"></iframe></div>
<br />
They produced ~50% of the worlds face masks before the pandemic and had already increased that number 12 fold as of a month ago [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/masks-china-coronavirus.html">NY Times</a>]. Of course, their initial lockdowns paused much production, and domestic demand was initially consuming much of the increased supply.<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-leNfud0gB20/Xpuk9o389vI/AAAAAAAAxO4/uazplH74e5wc-f7Ef4GhYp2dj247fYMKQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EV7RfGkU0AAfwD1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="180" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-leNfud0gB20/Xpuk9o389vI/AAAAAAAAxO4/uazplH74e5wc-f7Ef4GhYp2dj247fYMKQCK4BGAYYCw/s320/EV7RfGkU0AAfwD1.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">540,000 face masks from China to U.S. [<a href="https://twitter.com/XHNews/status/1251668082231140354">Xinhua Twitter</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
Unfortunately, a lot of the additional factories are re-purposed, not specialised to medical equipment. This may have led to highly publicised cases of faulty/unsuitable equipment being shipped to the west. Triggering Chinese authorities to impose more stringent export checks, a week ago [<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-masks/china-imposes-more-checks-on-mask-exports-to-ensure-quality-control-idUSKCN21S141">Reuters</a>]. Which may slow things down further, but we're still dependant on them.<br />
<br />
And Chinese media are putting on a show of helping us out [<a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/19/c_138989073.htm">XinhuaNet</a>], with non-standard equipment shipments published by west facing state news (above right).<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuYAhgmEx-0/Xpo9r9L6V1I/AAAAAAAAxJY/RII0DhToyNIOgvo0rEI9kbW8ZauQgXnJQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/_111808269_who_funding_640_3x-nc.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kuYAhgmEx-0/Xpo9r9L6V1I/AAAAAAAAxJY/RII0DhToyNIOgvo0rEI9kbW8ZauQgXnJQCK4BGAYYCw/s320/_111808269_who_funding_640_3x-nc.png" width="252" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">WHO's funding breakdown [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52291654">BBC</a>].</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
• Meanwhile, many English speaking media outlets, and certain US politicians in particular, are still making a show of <b>blaming China</b>.<br />
<br />
Trump had a fling with with the idea of <b>defunding the WHO</b>, over a week ago, which he backtracked on [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/07/trump-coronavirus-who-funding-deaths-briefing">Guardian</a>]. Maybe just another random 'trial balloon'. But then circled back to call a halt of funding (while investigating WHO's actions). Something widely condemned as ludicrously dangerous and which no other nations have echoed, thankfully [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52291654">BBC</a>].<br />
<br />
Trump's claiming they've been too biased towards China, helping them (supposedly) cover up the problem. Specifically, he cited WHO initially advising against flight restrictions (a measure Chris Whitty has previously said is damaging far in excess of its usefulness) and declaring no clear evidence for human to human transmission, back on 14th January [<a href="https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
A bemused WHO CEO, Dr Michael J. Ryan, explains the timeline of their actions, here in this conference video [<a href="https://youtu.be/3tBLu3wj-XE?t=3891">Guardian YouTube</a>]:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/3tBLu3wj-XE/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/3tBLu3wj-XE?feature=player_embedded" width="480"></iframe></div>
<br />
- Virus announced to world on the 5th January (triggering all country's incident management systems and direct briefing the next day).<br />
<br />
- Virus sequence shared on 12th; picking out a cluster of 41 cases of "atypical pneumonia" so early was actually pretty impressive given so many similar cases all over the world constantly.<br />
<br />
- Confirming human to human transmission is very tricky because this is often entirely context dependant (e.g. avian flu spreads very poorly or not at all outside of very close quarters contact); but WHO made clear even before the 14th that respiratory precautions needed to be taken.<br />
<br />
- They are very keen to see the "after action" reports (which always happens to evaluate such events).<br />
<br />
- Flight restrictions are all country's sovereign rights, who only works as a go between to assure other countries that such measures are justified for health reasons (not for purely political reasons, etc).<br />
<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I8OFqLQdLfE/XpqzGVWz7XI/AAAAAAAAxLk/mKIQ_f0rKkgD3bdT64DEQMy8vEY5iGkjACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/82-62rVS.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="383" data-original-width="680" height="180" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I8OFqLQdLfE/XpqzGVWz7XI/AAAAAAAAxLk/mKIQ_f0rKkgD3bdT64DEQMy8vEY5iGkjACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/82-62rVS.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/WHO-Trump-coronavirus.html">NY Times</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/health/WHO-Trump-coronavirus.html">NY Times</a>] exonerate the WHO from blame in European and US epidemic disasters. Much in line with their own statements, above: "<i>With limited, constantly shifting information, the W.H.O. showed an early, consistent determination to treat the new contagion like the threat it would become.</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1251103131250962433">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
Peak Prosperity [<a href="https://youtu.be/kCiDCBLpjZg?t=1341">YouTube</a>] criticises the WHO for failing to declare a "<i>pandemic</i>" explicitly until March 11th, despite reaching "<i>Phase 4</i>" of their own (influenza) pandemic checklist on 24th January and "<i>Phase 5</i>" a week or so after (with sustained human-to-human transmission within multiple countries). This lack of officially declaration explicitly using that magic word (pandemic) does seem like an odd omission. But they were being very specific with good, specific advice for countries, the whole time describing it as a "global emergency". <br />
<br />
I'd personally felt they'd probably held off declaring "pandemic" under pressure from US (and UK), who started making their first big move *right* afterwards. Not heard any evidence to that effect though. But the WHO has extremely limited powers, funding and capabilities. It relies on it's members resources and co-operation to get anything done [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization">Wikipedia</a>].<br />
<br />
So, yes, it's deferential to China, but in the same vein that it always bends over backwards to avoid criticising any governments. It walks an impossible line, between taking flack for causing unnecessary economic damage by being too alarmist (usually more common), verses under-stating. Which may have been the case here, in not quite screaming bloody murder at the top of its lungs - a more measured use of language.<br />
<br />
The key issue in China, early on, was the <i>local </i>suppression of outbreak information by Wuhan’s mayor, Zhou Xianwang, wanting to avoid interrupting major social events. This was brought to a close abruptly by national celebrity epidemiologist, Dr. Zhong, on 20th January, with a national TV announcement of the cover up and declaration condemning any other future attempts to suppress information. Which I'm inclined to believe - its pretty clear China couldn't contain this embarrassment, so worst still to look entirely clueless. The WHO were still not permitted to tour the affected areas for themselves for another 3 weeks, though, which leaves a lot of ambiguity.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
• Anyway, It's blatantly obvious to almost everyone that Trump is looking to divert blame from his disastrous handling of the situation, having played down the dangers in February (long after Chinese lock-downs) and dithered on through March, etc.<br />
<br />
But it's more directly to <b>divert attention</b> and hard questions about his very obvious failings, by moving the controversy on to a different set of questions with more ambiguous answers, that is easier for him to defend against [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/trump-threatens-defund-world-health-organization/610030/?utm_content=edit-promo&utm_source=facebook&utm_campaign=the-atlantic&utm_term=2020-04-15T13%252525253A50%252525253A31&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR1ut1N6z2RX7rkCYW-ChNm63CS0LRe_ScgK3sjB0LnCHaP49-IqLZTMkgk">TheAtlantic</a>].<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QmAiFbfPGbQ/XppSonO3HpI/AAAAAAAAxJ0/icuymXYLndUyGMIZ4zNFt8R4of_mxb9RACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/EVlQh7uWkAEonNf.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="586" data-original-width="828" height="226" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-QmAiFbfPGbQ/XppSonO3HpI/AAAAAAAAxJ0/icuymXYLndUyGMIZ4zNFt8R4of_mxb9RACLcBGAsYHQ/s320/EVlQh7uWkAEonNf.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">A Fox reporter on [<a href="https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1250118919278526464">Twitter</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The ramping up of rhetoric was accompanied by displays of military power, e.g. lining up all US Airforce B-52 bombers and drones in Guam [<a href="https://twitter.com/LucasFoxNews/status/1250118919278526464">Twitter</a>], right.<br />
<br />
The situation kind of feels like the US is a (racist) old granddad in a care home, waving a gun about while shouting incoherent nonsense at the 4 staff members busy seeing to his needs.<br />
<br />
I'm not seeing this reported anywhere reputable, but the [<a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8215863/US-puts-force-elephant-walk-B-52-bombers-Guam.html">Daily Mail</a>] claim the show of force is in response to China sailing its first aircraft carrier somewhere near Taiwan, while (as previously mentioned) US aircraft carrier, Theodore Roosevelt, is out of action, at Guam. But we know the Daily Mail has a fanciful imagination [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html#2020-03-29">previous blog post</a>].<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
• More troubling than the WHO distraction, in terms of number of people convinced, is the <b>Chinese cover-up narrative</b>, that they <i>must</i> have had <i>massively </i>more cases and deaths than officially acknowledged [<a href="https://metro.co.uk/2020/03/30/thousands-people-died-wuhan-authorities-saying-12478118/">Metro </a>| <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-52194356">BBC</a>].<br />
<br />
<b>Disbelief </b>that the US (and west) is seeing so many more deaths than China, despite its far bigger population, seems to be bolstering the popularity of this idea. Assumed superiority in all things still taken as a given (wrongly). Witness this tweet with over 100k likes [<a href="https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1249876189616971778?s=09">Twitter</a>]:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-karbqhWI8xY/XppZPPUXlPI/AAAAAAAAxKE/MtoqPsk39BgY67adNnKY8NYTQ_gl7j7dACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Cropper2020-04-18-02-33-15-3747881.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="143" data-original-width="629" height="144" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-karbqhWI8xY/XppZPPUXlPI/AAAAAAAAxKE/MtoqPsk39BgY67adNnKY8NYTQ_gl7j7dACLcBGAsYHQ/s640/Cropper2020-04-18-02-33-15-3747881.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
Even thinkers who I greatly respect seem to keep getting caught on this mental dissonance. Venkatesh Rao [<a href="https://twitter.com/vgr/status/1248114685087375360">Twitter1</a>], dividing the national death counts by their total population, which is meaningless, as FT data visualisation artist, John Burn-Murdoch, explains [<a href="https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1244380095164420101">Twitter</a>] in his recurrent threads tracking the pandemic in (mostly log) graphs: "<i>As I’ve been saying, population does not affect pace of spread. All per-capita figures do is make smaller countries look worse.</i>"<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MIxR20pESv8/XppbpagsEUI/AAAAAAAAxKQ/ag9iZYQ5j9Mw0-RVX3DnhW1qjhcsVf73ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/EUTtGI0XQAEjhGO.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="600" height="531" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-MIxR20pESv8/XppbpagsEUI/AAAAAAAAxKQ/ag9iZYQ5j9Mw0-RVX3DnhW1qjhcsVf73ACLcBGAsYHQ/s640/EUTtGI0XQAEjhGO.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Pure scatter plot, no correlation [<a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1244368708249817091">John Burn-Murdoch Twitter</a>].</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As we looked at at the top of our first Covid-19 post [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-deadly-wake-up-call-to.html">Blogger</a>] the spread follows an exponential curve, until a substantial fraction ~50% of the vulnerable population has been infected (and become immune), at which point it arcs back into an "S" shaped logistics curve. Until then its like a little blob of mould expanding on an agar jelly dish, or lily pads multiplying in the middle of a lake, spreading without regard for the distant boundaries.<br />
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More specifically, people [e.g. <a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1246221993151623169">Venkat on Twitter</a>] are referencing reports claiming Chinese deaths might have been under-reported by a factor of 5-10 times. E.g. US funded [<a href="https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/wuhan-deaths-03272020182846.html">Radio Free Asia</a>] talking about the number of urns used by <b>crematoriums </b>and some running continuously, possibly implying ~46k deaths.<br />
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This all seems to stem from this weak Washington University paper from the 18th Feb [<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3540636">SSRN</a>]. Or the same information sources, at least. Namely a quickly <b>censored Tencent post</b> (Chinese social media) report of ~233k cases, which would put the death toll at ~7k with their stated ~3% fatality rate (closer to double official). And some 'back of the envelope', very rough looking calculations taken from reports of crematorium operation, etc, which I think are ridiculously presumptuous.<br />
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Even if they were playing catch-up, 24-7, that makes sense if they had been closed for some days (just in terms of the backlog from other deaths). Or if the extra load is all Covid-19 deaths, it's likely that bodies had been stored in freezes for days before hand, then taken care of in bulk, at as few locations as possible (due to contamination risks, etc). Flimsey. Paper [<a href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID3542661_code78166.pdf?abstractid=3540636&mirid=1&type=2">PDF</a>].<br />
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<br />
• To catch up on some <b>general political developments</b> (during the last week I've missed making updates):<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PtzLYNZWGpw/XppKpohMqOI/AAAAAAAAxJo/hAURC7o1js82v6iCcGhyyLNdIHXdXl5WwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/249419a5-157d-42f9-b2b9-eeb28066c392.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="180" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PtzLYNZWGpw/XppKpohMqOI/AAAAAAAAxJo/hAURC7o1js82v6iCcGhyyLNdIHXdXl5WwCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/249419a5-157d-42f9-b2b9-eeb28066c392.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/f4b6d413-fd5a-42e5-aee0-697f11de7a92">FT</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>(1)</b> <b>Keir Starmer</b> <b>won the Labour leadership</b> contest, surprised no one, on the 4th April [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/apr/04/keir-starmer-wins-labour-leadership-election">Guardian</a>]. Looking Priministerial, the former human rights lawyer appears to be taking the party back more towards the centre. Although Corbyn's legacy won the argument for more socialist policies.<br />
<br />
He's taken pains to avoid sniping at the government's coronavirus response [<a href="https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/keir-starmer-says-now-not-21853988">Mirror</a>], asking how Labour can help the response, but staying coy in terms of courting calls for a national government of unity. Something I think would be as much of a mistake for Labour, as the Lib Dem's 2010 coalition was, in unfairly taring the more progressive party with (most of) the blame.<br />
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<b>(2)</b> A <b>leaked internal Labour report</b> (looking at much reported antisemitism) has shown that senior party staff deliberately sabotaged Corbyn in the 2017 general election [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/13/labour-leaked-report-party-unity-keir-starmer-corbyn-faction">Guardian</a>]. It was a narrow loss that Corbyn has also recently said could have been averted but for the (failed) 2016 leadership coup [<a href="https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/labour-could-have-won-2017-election-without-2016-plp-coup-corbyn-says">NewStatesman</a>].<br />
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How different recent events might have played out with Labour since 2017...: A properly funded NHS, bigger PPE stockpile, EU cooperation (instead of Brexit BS), more chance of an earlier shut-down (presuming greater concern with human lives than big business). Maybe we'd now have a universal basic income on the way in, like Spain. Although, they would have been fighting a hostile right wing press the whole time. Certainly if they'd only come in as of December 2019, there would be a lot less deferential treatment of the government response.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-umHSFB9LfDA/XppKWHS0heI/AAAAAAAAxJg/Z4La8pU_GH8e9DZsg76YbP8r-bTLJXn7QCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/Screen-Shot-2020-04-08-at-10.59.48-AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="952" data-original-width="1562" height="195" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-umHSFB9LfDA/XppKWHS0heI/AAAAAAAAxJg/Z4La8pU_GH8e9DZsg76YbP8r-bTLJXn7QCLcBGAsYHQ/s320/Screen-Shot-2020-04-08-at-10.59.48-AM.png" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/08/comrade-sanders-concedes-revolutionary-defeat/">Federalist</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>(3)</b> <b>Bernie Sanders</b> officially dropped out of the Democratic leadership race [<a href="https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/us-senator-bernie-sanders-drops-out-of-2020-democratic-campaign">StraitsTimes</a>]. After the party's again gave him fewer delegates, despite being more popular amongst members, overwhelmingly with young (i.e. below middle age). The coronavirus situation made it harder/impossible to justify continuing with rallies and giving way early might afford more time to heal internal divisions before presidential elections (due in November).<br />
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However, presumptive nominee, Joe Biden (Obama's Vice President), is perceived as not progressive and there's general acrimony. Personally, I'd be feeling a complete loss of motivation to vote, too. So things don't look great for avoiding a second term (or more) of Trump insanity. Sanders has generally argued far better against Trump on stage, Biden a far easier establishment figure to pull down. I think Bidden should make Sanders his running mate, personally. Unprecedented times, unprecedented measures.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-19"> </a>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2020-04-19</span></b><span style="font-size: large;"> - Divided States!</span><br />
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• Meanwhile, in Trumpland... He's wasted no time politicising the lockdowns. 5 days ago, there was the announcement of his "<b>Council to Re-Open America</b>", composed of his family members, close advisers and no a single health expert, scientist or epidemiologist [<a href="http://council%20to%20re-open%20america/">Twitter</a>]:<br />
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<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vdAOMGQp9qw/XpuxSkeuzoI/AAAAAAAAxPU/5hrC4vWKk24t-HURb2Xyy-l_ukTKCwWTgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EVgj7FrXYAEwBAE.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="379" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-vdAOMGQp9qw/XpuxSkeuzoI/AAAAAAAAxPU/5hrC4vWKk24t-HURb2Xyy-l_ukTKCwWTgCK4BGAYYCw/s640/EVgj7FrXYAEwBAE.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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He's also wrongly claimed that he has the power to force states to reopen business [<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1249712413219397632">Twitter</a> via <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/14/21220755/trump-council-to-reopen-america-fox-news-economy">Vox</a>]. That control officially rests with the governors of each state, who have been (quite sensibly) banding together to co-ordinate easing measures in a sane fashion. Starting with California, 3 west coast states formed a pact [<a href="https://www.governor.wa.gov/news-media/washington-oregon-and-california-announce-western-states-pact">Washington Governor</a>] and a 6 state, then multi-state, East coast council, too [<a href="https://twitter.com/alfred_twu/status/1249789233146945536">Twitter</a>].<br />
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xNAE1AU8z5w/Xpu4MKYfoDI/AAAAAAAAxP4/piOIucRhQZAgBdK2IQSYX-u_NS7vExmGgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EV0qpuZU0AAbcUN.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="345" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-xNAE1AU8z5w/Xpu4MKYfoDI/AAAAAAAAxP4/piOIucRhQZAgBdK2IQSYX-u_NS7vExmGgCK4BGAYYCw/s640/EV0qpuZU0AAbcUN.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s8jaidks28o/Xpu2YA31xWI/AAAAAAAAxPs/m88di2psoTgCWSH8uV7gHb1PH78r4lYEACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/250px-GitS-Appleseed_Imperial_America_2030.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-s8jaidks28o/Xpu2YA31xWI/AAAAAAAAxPs/m88di2psoTgCWSH8uV7gHb1PH78r4lYEACK4BGAYYCw/s400/250px-GitS-Appleseed_Imperial_America_2030.png" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">[</span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Ghost_in_the_Shell#American_Empire" style="text-align: start;">GITS Wiki</a><span style="text-align: start;">]</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
As of April 17, the coordinating areas looked something like this (above), with metropolitan mayors leading the way in place of state governors in the south [<a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1249789233146945536">Twitter</a>].<br />
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There are chilling science fiction dystopia parallels whenever one starts looking at carving up the US. E.g. Snow Crash, Shadowrun, Gamma World, Judge Dread [<a href="https://twitter.com/MykeCole/status/1249828259476504578">Twitter</a>].<br />
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Personally I'm most reminded of Ghost in the Shell's "<i>American Empire</i>", etc [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_of_Ghost_in_the_Shell#American_Empire">GITS Wiki</a>] (right). That fiction is set in the 2040s after a third world war.<br />
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I think these groupings are just pertaining to pandemic related public orders. But NY governor Cuomo has previously complained about the insane medical equipment acquisition system (of states bidding against each other, etc), so there may at least be moves to coordinate that better too.<br />
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But it's easy to imagine these new regions seeding new formal divisions and alliances in a far more wide reaching sense. Especially as Trump duels with Cuomo and other state authorities [April 13th <a href="https://variety.com/2020/biz/news/andrew-cuomo-gavin-newsom-governors-restart-economy-1234578920/">Variety</a>, 18th <a href="https://www.vogue.com/article/andrew-cuomo-trump-get-up-and-go-to-work">Vogue</a>].<br />
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It seems like Trump is trying to take personal (and familial) glory, by associating himself with reopening. Trying to be seen to push for it, despite being in charge of the shut-downs himself, officially at least. He may also have some fanciful notion of restoring the (real) economy to its previous health by the time of election voting in November. There's just no way employment can go back to where it was a month ago inside of several years, but maybe if it's trending up well<br />
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At any rate, he's also been <i>directly</i> agitating unrest in tweets urging protests in Minnesota, Michigan and "<i>LIBERATE VIRGINIA, and save your great 2nd Amendment.</i>" [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/17/trump-liberate-tweets-coronavirus-stay-at-home-orders">Guardian</a>]. These were loud, scary, fairly well orchestrated demonstrations, with many participants toting automatic rifles. They've given us this searing image, spawning endless Zombie movie mash-ups (e.g. Shaun of the Dead):<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LUBlzFn27g0/XpvFgGO3A8I/AAAAAAAAxQQ/xBdrXm_pPPE95jtftjcMPQ5ODwr4J8U-QCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/92696972_860592971118912_8145496817933484032_n.jpg" imageanchor="1"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LUBlzFn27g0/XpvFgGO3A8I/AAAAAAAAxQQ/xBdrXm_pPPE95jtftjcMPQ5ODwr4J8U-QCK4BGAYYCw/s640/92696972_860592971118912_8145496817933484032_n.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5nQIWuTNJI4/XpwPCMq2LjI/AAAAAAAAxRU/fg6kiLxA1O0_sSz-VrakCnMIGGevI1u_ACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EV6AS7XU4AA2h9B.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-5nQIWuTNJI4/XpwPCMq2LjI/AAAAAAAAxRU/fg6kiLxA1O0_sSz-VrakCnMIGGevI1u_ACK4BGAYYCw/s200/EV6AS7XU4AA2h9B.jpg" width="140" /></a>Maybe Trumps tweets are not thought out, just knee-jerk declarations to sound good to his base and rally them. Maybe they are largely petty, vindictive partisanship (all aimed at democratic governors). Maybe even a deliberate ploy to worsen the pandemic's impact in the democratic states he's targeting, as partially indicated by his highly uneven distribution of federal medical equipment. Increasing death and disorder with an aim to decrease trust of democrat voters and stir up motivation of republican voters.<br />
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Many of the things that interviewed protesters are complaining about are frivolous, like haircuts or seemingly ice cream, from the look of this equally bizarre photo (right). So it's easy to dismiss them as idiots, and those spouting inflexible rhetoric about civil rights and amendments as die hard right wing Trump supporters with an axe to grind (in democrat controlled states, particularly). An excuse to be angry and feel powerful, showing off their big guns, etc...<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5PEUQW0lxEY/XpwTgTLWBvI/AAAAAAAAxRg/QoaxuV2BlYMgmd6Dhyy8aw2BDe-IZeDPACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EV6sDb-XQAEenq2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5PEUQW0lxEY/XpwTgTLWBvI/AAAAAAAAxRg/QoaxuV2BlYMgmd6Dhyy8aw2BDe-IZeDPACK4BGAYYCw/s200/EV6sDb-XQAEenq2.jpg" width="147" /></a><br />
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The situation certainly makes UK seem quaint, right now. We just have the oligarch/press-barons trying to foment the public to loose patience (right). We know that newspaper's ad revenue's dried up at least 50%, so there one extra reason to stir.<br />
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Maybe all the US protests are predominantly 'astroturfed' by wealthy employers, claiming that they "<i>want to be able to work again</i>", when what they mean is they want to be able to make their workers earn them money.<br />
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But... I feel there is going to be widespread tolerance and even support of such (seemingly insane) protests because of the gaps in financial support for many Americans (see below).<br />
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What's perhaps reassuring, in terms of virus spread, is that the vast majority, about 80%, of American's "<i>would wait to resume activities after government lifts coronavirus restrictions</i>" [<a href="https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/492639-8-in-10-would-wait-to-resume-activities-after-government-lifts-restrictions">TheHill</a> via <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/g143rb/8_in_10_americans_would_wait_to_resume_activities/">Reddit</a>]. Although, that's as things currently stand, after just a month of restrictions. And it would mean very sluggish return to economic activity, of course.<br />
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• Like the response to 2008, the <b>US financial measures are boosting inequality</b>. The government's initial package worked in a $500Bn "<i>slush fund</i>" for the Secretary of the Treasury to distribute to corporations and states with no accountability or oversight, as yet [<a href="https://time.com/5823510/coronavirus-stimulus-oversight/">Time</a>]. Propping up big business and who know what else, on the side.<br />
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£250Bn went into the Paycheck Protection Program [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/26/us-stimulus-bill-worker-relief">Guardian</a>]. Including a $1200 emergency payment to all adults, but that's a one off and won't last people long. Unemployment benefits were also expanded fairly substantially, to pay a little more and include self employed and gig workers. But that won't help those paid in cash, undocumented, homeless or the millions who've not filed their tax returns (recently, as in the UK). While some workers could theoretically receive more unemployment pay than in their work, most will be substantially down, I think.<br />
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The $350bn allocation to finance small business loans is failing to be taken up, with insufficient money to pay certain types of employee (e.g. restaurant staff) enough to make it worth their while, and also pay rent on their premises, plus too many strings attached and too much uncertainty about the length of shut-down and the unlikely eventually of business immediately bouncing back at the end [<a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/relief-small-business/610066/">TheAtlantic</a>].<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5-i357FCRtU/Xp6P3Ggxc8I/AAAAAAAAxYU/XOnjowLsuEcoOpfzRvN8Sac0jPpRWQqGQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/EVRbqeIXkAAZoXT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="243" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5-i357FCRtU/Xp6P3Ggxc8I/AAAAAAAAxYU/XOnjowLsuEcoOpfzRvN8Sac0jPpRWQqGQCK4BGAYYCw/s320/EVRbqeIXkAAZoXT.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">"<i>When late stage capitalism takes a selfie</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1248723786154872837">AOC Twitter</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is being extremely liberal with its stock market spending, buying up everything to keep it aloft, including dodgy junk bonds "<i>supporting some of the private equity companies that have
specialised in capital engineering and loading companies up with debt</i>" [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d53d77d8-7fe0-11ea-8fdb-7ec06edeef84">FT</a>]. That'll include the big finance buddies of those in government and the Fed, getting richer.<br />
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Admittedly the stock market rallies do come off the back of record breaking drops. But the fundamentals behind this upward movement are not a good look and pretty worrying.<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yvC1k26SDkM/Xpwi6kjw8tI/AAAAAAAAxRs/Cnk9F2AdG1wKYA5fRkiELOYeucEPqkAEACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/2020-04-19%2BPeak%2Bprosperity%2Bchart%2Bstock%2Bmarket%2Bvs%2Bjob%2Blosses.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="456" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-yvC1k26SDkM/Xpwi6kjw8tI/AAAAAAAAxRs/Cnk9F2AdG1wKYA5fRkiELOYeucEPqkAEACK4BGAYYCw/s640/2020-04-19%2BPeak%2Bprosperity%2Bchart%2Bstock%2Bmarket%2Bvs%2Bjob%2Blosses.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Stock market climbs back up as unemployment also soars [<a href="https://youtu.be/kCiDCBLpjZg?t=1642">Peak Prosperity YouTube</a>].</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<br />
<br />
• An bastion of sanity, <b>France's President Macron</b> waxes philosophical on the nature of multilateralism, globalisation, inequality, human nature, etc, in the context of current events - (subtitled) FT video [<a href="https://youtu.be/DPGfKhCICC0">YouTube</a>]:<br />
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<iframe allowfullscreen="" class="YOUTUBE-iframe-video" data-thumbnail-src="https://i.ytimg.com/vi/DPGfKhCICC0/0.jpg" frameborder="0" height="270" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/DPGfKhCICC0?feature=player_embedded" width="480"></iframe></div>
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It seems that he's struggling to convince Germany and Netherlands to allow financial backing of Italy, Spain and Greece, to survive the economic shock. Tensions presumably being much the same as when I looked into the Eurozone problems with Greek bailouts (aka EU debt laundering) in this post [<a href="https://youtu.be/DPGfKhCICC0">Blogger</a>] starting from Yanis Varoufakis' perspective, that the EU is half finished (monetary union without financial union).<br />
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Now Macron's saying the EU project may be over if the nations don't come together and support each other. Authoritarian populists will win if not. But he sounds pretty hopeful, that events are showing us our vulnerabilities, will prompt reassessments, that we'll no longer accept dirty air, etc (in the context of questions about climate change). Kinda wish he was our Prime Minister...<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-20"> </a>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2020-04-20</span></b><span style="font-size: large;"> - Food shortages?</span><br />
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• We talked previously about the looming lack of migrant farm workers for picking produce. But there's also been a major shock to <b>meat and dairy</b> supply.<br />
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In the US, there have been several major closures of abattoirs/meat packing business due to sick employees, who often have to work physically close to each other, so shortages may be fairly imminent [<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sick-workers-closures-hit-meat-suppliers-sparking-shortage-fears-2020-4">BusinessInsider</a>].<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5d41173a-9fc8-4201-8a19-4c10c92df3ff">FT</a>]</td></tr>
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While in the UK, a quarter of dairies (about 10,000 farms), became financially unviable [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/5d41173a-9fc8-4201-8a19-4c10c92df3ff">FT</a>]. They usually operate on very thin margins due to extreme price pressure from supermarkets. This is a knock-on from restaurant and hotel closures, killing demand and wholesale prices. Easing of competition laws, to allow coordinated reduction of supply, and existing coronavirus loan schemes, which many farmers are struggling to access, may be insufficient to avoid "<i>irreparable damage to the milk supply chain</i>".<br />
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Much milk is simply having to be pored away, and (again in the US) talk of flocks of chickens slaughtered without sale, wasted due to staff shortages [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/chickens-coronavirus-slaughtered-farmers-us-delaware-maryland-a9469101.html">Independent</a>].<br />
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Closures have hit beef and lamb production awkwardly, with demand for expensive cuts from restaurants gone, but many more wanting supermarket mince meat (i.e. cheaper off-cuts) [<a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/coronavirus-lockdown-uk-food-supplies-strain-supermarkets-a9469476.html">Independent</a>]. Impossible to supply without huge wastage and financial loss, or drastic price changes to force demand to re-balance.<br />
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From the above linked article, an acclaimed 35% of food (~70M meals per day) usually came from restaurants, caterers and canteens (e.g. at schools). Aside from the odd take-out/home delivery, that's all gone. So for one thing, there's struggles all over the place trying to get potentially wasted food to hungry mouths. Vegetable farmers scratching their heads over what to plant for totally new types of customers and how to distribute it to them. Massive growth potential for veg boxes right now - a tiny green grocer around the corner from us has seized upon this, taking boxes to home isolating retirees (as well as his usual care home supply business).<br />
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What's interesting (and a little concerning) to me, is that it looks like there hasn't been a persistent 30% increase in supermarket sales, as yet:<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-52229828">BBC</a>]</td></tr>
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Yes there was a short period of Christmas-like sales, peaking at 43% above normal (preparing for a potential 2 weeks of isolation upon symptoms). But that stopped abruptly at the point of lockdown, actually dipping below normal for a fortnight.<br />
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In part everyone staying at home may be eating through some of those (predominantly longer life) foods. Maybe a lot of eating out was smaller meals, cheaper to replace. But there still seems like a mismatch in supply/demand, which implies cupboards and freezers may be going bare in a lot of homes. Certainly I've heard of those (permanently) housebound getting pretty desperate, waiting for home delivery slots, their supplies run out. And foodbank use has certainly spiked in some areas [<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-my-only-way-of-surviving-food-banks-see-massive-spike-in-demand-as-job-cuts-bite-11974622">SkyNews</a>]. Although I heard we have a large surplus of stock, locally.<br />
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Maybe part of the reduction in home wares, clothes and toiletries, etc, will cover part of this discrepancy in food. In that, expenditure (after lockdown) has stayed roughly normal, but purchases have shifted to a higher percentage of food (as above right graph).<br />
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But my local supermarket has seemed less busy than normal on each visit, with half the points of sale closed and shorter opening hours. I don't see how this (apparently) reduced usage can be sustainable. Maybe shopping is more evenly distributed (no quiet times). I don't think home increased deliveries are accounting for enough of the shortfall (and usually those are picked from in-store anyway).<br />
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There must be a rise in sales and customers soon, as people realise lockdowns aren't going to end and they're running out of food... That could make it really difficult to maintain distancing in shops if demand rises 30%. Maybe supermarkets will go the other way and extend opening hours again, to spread customers out better.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">[</span><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister" style="text-align: start;">Guardian</a><span style="text-align: start;">]</span></span></td></tr>
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• It sounds like Brazil's President Bolsonaro is trying to beat Trump at his own game. Already rallying against state government's public closure measures, he fired his health minister, Luiz Henrique Mandetta, sparking more pot banging protests in cities [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/16/bolsonaro-brazil-president-luiz-mandetta-health-minister">Guardian</a>].<br />
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With 211M citizens, Brazil had only 2000 deaths, as of a few days ago. But could easily loose 1M souls, according to modelling. I'd expect far worst, if that's a naive (full treatment) number and things get out of hand. I guess they may have to test out how well more tropical temperatures slow transmission (if at all), and how much the public can socially distance off their own backs.<br />
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• In his press conference yesterday, Trump was certainly pushing a misuse of figures we talked about above - dividing the country's death toll by the total population. Both to minimise the fact that US now has the most deaths in the world and to be able to point at China because that makes it's number look implausible, by comparison. It's not, as discussed. Also, having an epidemic start from a single location is probably cleaner to suppress (if acting decisively) than it being seeded all over at random by travellers flying in, etc.<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://youtu.be/WUweeVICgOE?t=3017">Guardian YouTube</a>] "Look at this misleading chart, it makes no sense!" (To paraphrase.)</td></tr>
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I actually found, half watching this presentation in full, that Trump could be kind of sympathetic. I certainly get how he can appeal to many, with very direct use of simple language and many reassuring boasts. Provided one doesn't remember him contradicting himself, realise he's pushing personal profit agendas here and there, or do a bit of research to realise his details are often nonsense. Din't loose his cool with any reporters, really. Maybe a good day. But I can see why ardent supporters could easily see reports as picking on him unfairly, etc.<br />
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• Overview of the current current global situation: US and UK death rates seem to have finally <i>just </i>passed their (initial) peaks...:<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest">FT</a>]</td></tr>
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But it seems likely that both will now follow Italy and Spain in running close to this high for some time to come:<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest">FT</a>] Note: the dip oscillations coincide with weekends, when reporting is lower.</td></tr>
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It could be predominantly that deaths, in lagging infections substantially, are very smeared out. Many taking a long time to become critically ill and then longer still on ventilators, etc.<br />
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But maybe my friends were right, in wanting lockdown measure even more strongly enforced, To get infections under control more quickly. There's no sign of those coming down yet, from testing. But obviously that became saturated a good while ago, so it might well be unrepresentative.<br />
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Although maybe an ongoing maximally manageable infection & death rate is exactly what some in power want... Michael Gove was reportedly quoted in the Sunday Times saying “we<i> need to run this hot</i>” [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/ba7f6a0e-a02e-4819-93cf-ff3e9dc192d2">FT</a>]. Either brazenly oblivious (quite possible) to the fact that any level of infection/deaths can be sustained for the same imposition of distancing measures, yielding the same R0 transmission value. So an initially low death rate could be kept low for the same amount of 'economic damage' as a high one. It will just take a couple months to bring it down, first. Or he's still stuck on trying for full infection 'herd immunity'...<br />
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Either way, it's Gove and Sunak in the cabinet, apparently, pushing to reopen sooner. Unsurprising position for the Chancellor, given he has to keep signing off on more enormous government spending, the longer disruptions continue. While Health secretary Hancock and Cummings want to crush the infection level first. Perhaps the brains behind Johnson is smart enough to see the intrinsic merits of not making a huge percentage of the population seriously ill... Or he's just more savvy, that opinions dead set against infections and likely to crush anyone seen to be pushing the wrong way.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-21"> </a>
<b><span style="font-size: large;">► 2020-04-21</span></b><span style="font-size: large;"> - Through the floor!:</span><br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">[</span><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1252266724449230848" style="text-align: start;">Twitter</a><span style="text-align: start;">]</span></span></td></tr>
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• Shocking revelations (if true, which appears most likely): someone from UK gov's Department of Health and Social Care <b>DHSC created 128 fake nurse Twitter accounts</b>, 43 with stolen photos of actual NHS nurses, and had been using them to try to influence public opinion [<a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/jdpoc/status/1252266724449230848">Twitter</a>].<br />
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Apparently they refused to acknowledge the issue, then the accounts were bulk deleted. Now the official DHSCgovuk Twitter account is out posting in reply to any share of this post that it is "<i>Disinformation</i>" (below) [<a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1252342364644929536">Twitter</a>].<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">[</span><a href="https://mobile.twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1252342364644929536" style="text-align: start;">Twitter</a><span style="text-align: start;">]</span></span></td></tr>
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This is, quite frankly, somewhat <i>terrifying</i>. It's an echo of the 2019 Tory election disinformation campaign, where 88% (5952) of their biggest ads were disinformation, next to 0% from Labour [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-50726500">BBC</a>]. And of the Brexit referendum information and influence operations (which illegally swung it). But now that team is in government, able to pull directly on the strings of power, controlling entire civil service departments!<br />
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And potentially to censor critical social media content calling them out, starting perhaps under the cover of measures to suppress damaging conspiracy theories (e.g. 5G masts). It casts this next in a slightly more sinister light...<br />
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<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--lZLiydB2vI/Xp9Ed7I-52I/AAAAAAAAxbA/8ERmD09Ysa8_g76JeffNcQJK2RtUsbWlQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/94135787_1874505092685224_7508980130635579392_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/--lZLiydB2vI/Xp9Ed7I-52I/AAAAAAAAxbA/8ERmD09Ysa8_g76JeffNcQJK2RtUsbWlQCK4BGAYYCw/s320/94135787_1874505092685224_7508980130635579392_n.jpg" width="256" /></a>• The "<i><b>Boris missed 5 cobra meetings</b></i>" story (I posted about above) has actually been making a big splash across all media. Very widely reported (other details summarised, right). Enough that an anonymous "<i>spokesperson</i>" wrote a lengthy rebuttal to the [<a href="https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/coronavirus-38-days-when-britain-sleepwalked-into-disaster-hq3b9tlgh">SundayTimes</a>] article, and published it on the Department of Health website [<a href="https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/">DHSC</a>].<br />
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Some consider this use of this outlet to defending the executive startlingly strange [<a href="https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1252143833707577344">Carole Cadwalladr Twitter</a>]. Given the above, it made me wonder if this odd departmental use is not just to sheaf the defence of government ministers in a veil of health and science legitimacy, but maybe also if it could aid in censorship. E.g. by enabling government critical content referencing these posts to be removed (automatically) on some platforms...? I think this is overly paranoid, for now.<br />
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But all the above calls further into question the kind of communications strategies will be worked on by the election campaign gurus called to No.10 by Cummings [<a href="https://www.campaignlive.co.uk/article/downing-street-calls-election-gurus-overhaul-coronavirus-comms/1678511">Campaign</a>]. Given the vapid information in press conferences, I feel like it's more likely about spinning damage control to protect government's reputation [<a href="https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1252184979263696897">Twitter</a>], than to better articulate the reality of the situation to the public.<br />
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• It was also just confirmed by Foreign Office’s top civil servant, Sir Simon McDonald, that ministers made a <b>political choice to ignore EU offers</b> for joint procurement, as they were definitely informed and aware of them [<a href="https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/british-diplomat-admits-political-decision-not-join-eu-bulk-buy-schemes-not-e-mail-error-1-6617185?utm_source=Facebook&utm_medium=Social_Icon&utm_campaign=in_article_social_icons&fbclid=IwAR1RcS4ar3a4a4mcovifd_mMy757tBY9fi0nERyk1OHQHuxbckcusPnz1-U">TheEuropean</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/status/1252633411770028033">Twitter</a>]. So the "missed emails" revisionism really is a massive, barefaced lie. Arguably government topplingly big, if we run out of PPE in the next few days - it's extremely close, and many NHS staff deaths have already been blamed on rationing its use.<br />
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[<b>Update</b>: Sir Simon then retracted this in a written statement [<a href="https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/status/1252697573791608833">Twitter</a>]. What the actual...?! No way he wasn't pressured into this. Hard to he sure he even signed the document, given how brazen the gov's dishonesty has been.]<br />
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This [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/how-did-britain-get-its-response-to-coronavirus-so-wrong">Guardian</a>] article highlights the <b>Brexit distraction</b> too. And also how Cummings was (known to many) waging a war on civil servants in Whitehall, pushing various ones out (I'd add, including ousting the former chancellor by axing *all* his advisers). Unsurprising that gov were distracted. I could imagine Boris was told he might as take a break while his fixer cleaned house...<br />
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Much satirised ominously dystopian scene at the London Nightingale [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/how-did-britain-get-its-response-to-coronavirus-so-wrong">Guardian</a>].</td></tr>
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• The Excel Centre <b>Nightingale hospital is barely being used</b>, largely a good thing, but also turning away patients due to a lack of ICU nurses [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/21/nurse-shortage-causes-nightingale-hospital-to-turn-away-patients?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR1QwG0I3JlPAHfa4SRqqwfQPtwi9o2rjwXT-ap97CItnbWzFeym8BPUE6I#Echobox=1587490529">Guardian</a>]. No surprise there (that it's another shiny distraction).<br />
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As well as imminent PPE shortages in some regions (with a shipment from Turkey delayed), a number of the <b>muscle relaxant drugs</b> used to sedate patients on ventilators are in short supply. Cisatracurium is days from running out, with no restock scheduled in at all [<a href="https://youtu.be/GfIX6FdTQzE">Channel 4 YouTube</a>].<br />
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<b>Rehabilitating ventilated patients</b> is also a major growing issue. They are generally badly deconditioned, with a list of neurological problems and other issues. And this capacity was already badly under-resourced, before this big influx (as is typical for non-acute care, cut back). So boosting ventilator capacity, it seems, was always going to be largely irrelevant.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">[<a href="https://youtu.be/GfIX6FdTQzE">Channel 4 YouTube</a>]</span></div>
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• Crude <b>oil prices hit <i>negative </i>$37 per barrel! </b>To be more specific, this is for the May futures contracts in the US specifically, for which "<i>at expiration [today], you must take physical delivery of 1,000 barrels of oil at Cushing in Oklahoma</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/gilbeaq/status/1252293724215762950">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
So with all refineries who are able to physically take delivery currently full up, those traders who only want to own oil on paper are struggling to get rid of that liability (I think). These negative prices account for a very small percentage of the market and the futures contracts for crude another month out are still trading for ~$21. But have also dropping, of course. From [<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html">CNBC</a>]:<br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A6KhRbFVA2Y/Xp6Vegne6zI/AAAAAAAAxYs/n2HfYme-GkYMtDsmaz1WdcsNlqjqHx3YwCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/106497396-158741310922920200420oilpricescrash.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="360" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-A6KhRbFVA2Y/Xp6Vegne6zI/AAAAAAAAxYs/n2HfYme-GkYMtDsmaz1WdcsNlqjqHx3YwCK4BGAYYCw/s640/106497396-158741310922920200420oilpricescrash.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"><span style="text-align: start;">[</span><a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/oil-markets-us-crude-futures-in-focus-as-coronavirus-dents-demand.html" style="text-align: start;">CNBC</a><span style="text-align: start;">]</span></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
In early March Saudi Arabia actually increased production, in a power move to pressure other nations [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/42dee420-6222-11ea-a6cd-df28cc3c6a68">FT</a>]. But just over a week ago, OPEC+ (including the US, currently the worlds biggest oil producer) finally managed to agree record 10% overall reduction [<a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52264546">BBC</a>].<br />
<br />
But as I mentioned in my previous post [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2020/03/covid-19-part-2-daily-updates_29.html#2020-03-30">Blogger</a>], overall global oil demand appears to be 25% down (75% on jet fuel). That BBC article estimates fall by about 1/3. So there's still a dramatic over-supply and the agreed reductions only come into effect on the 1st of May.<br />
<br />
This is an industry that's been loathed to build significant storage capacity (expensive), previously leading to many hard price spikes when supply is hit, because demand is usually so inflexible. With full tankers unable to unload, I'm not sure where the extracted oil is physically going to go. Extraction operations may not be trivial to turn off (like a tap), so could there be substantial volumes of fuel burned off (or spilled)...? I think just the gas is burned to relieve pressure, normally [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_flare">Wikipedia</a>].<br />
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• <b>Lower electricity demand</b> is anticipated to put a strain on the UK national grid [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/16/low-demand-for-power-causes-problems-for-national-grid">Guardian</a>]. Of course, many factories, offices, retail, restaurants and hospitality have gone dark. Easter weekend demand, a yearly dip, was even lower than the original forecast of 17.6GW, down to 15.2GW.<br />
<br />
This is a potential problem because production must always be managed to balance demand at all times. Excess power leads to rising mains frequency (and grid voltage), as there is less electrical load 'pushing' back against the large generator motors, traditionally linked to steam turbines, with heating from fossil fuels, etc. As an oversimplification. In practice most of our power often comes from non-turbine generators (weather dependant).<br />
<br />
Damage to grid equipment (transformers, etc) is entirely possible, or blackouts/brownouts could be triggered, ironically. Large power plants hard to turn off and on - nuclear taking around a day to do so properly. So the onus is usually on renewables (e.g. wind) to stop, as that's physically easier. Purchases from other European countries, via various undersea interconnects, too. Also, (relatively small) pumped hydro electric systems are used to fine tune, storing excess power and releasing it quickly on demand.<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fkvY36u3KM4/Xp9aXSBNKgI/AAAAAAAAxbo/8WoaRsApeTwuZ4c07sM202cN_nCWD9WmQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/2020-04-21%2BGridwatch%2Byesterday%2527s%2Bpower.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="312" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-fkvY36u3KM4/Xp9aXSBNKgI/AAAAAAAAxbo/8WoaRsApeTwuZ4c07sM202cN_nCWD9WmQCK4BGAYYCw/s640/2020-04-21%2BGridwatch%2Byesterday%2527s%2Bpower.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Total UK energy production on 2020-04-20. [<a href="https://gridwatch.co.uk/">GridWatch</a>]<br />
Grey = nuclear, orange = gas turbine, = light blue = wind, yellow = solar (not all used).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
But with falling demand comes falling prices, which makes fossil fuel plants uneconomic to run first (you don't want to be burning fuel that cost more than you recoup). Whereas, solar and wind have virtually no production costs, so would be happy to run at any market price, in theory. Which is where the national grid comes along and effectively pays producers to stop.<br />
<br />
It's more complex, in practice - the grid is more like an orchestra conductor, contacting generators to tweak output. The coordination of supply is via a complex virtual marketplace for power, where producers bid to supply and face financial penalties for under or over supplying. Prediction of consumption is vital, with long term, day ahead and half hourly time slots resolved.<br />
<br />
When short term supply is in excess, there's still a "<i>bid offer acceptance</i>" system, where wind producers offering to cut production get could money reallocate to them for reducing output. But that might be achieved by a pumped hydro system, moving water up their mountain, instead. Depends who's cheapest. Energy supplier companies would take the financial hit for their customers using less than the supplier bought. [Source - a friend involved with grid energy trading.]<br />
<br />
<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FBXb4soRwJA/XqAcMmZqEwI/AAAAAAAAxc8/w1SCYAw5cTEFt14T8QQLR4995bUuww0_wCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/Cropper2020-04-22-11-27-24-5949371.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="332" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-FBXb4soRwJA/XqAcMmZqEwI/AAAAAAAAxc8/w1SCYAw5cTEFt14T8QQLR4995bUuww0_wCK4BGAYYCw/s640/Cropper2020-04-22-11-27-24-5949371.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.bmreports.com/bmrs/?q=demand/2-52-weekahead">Elexon</a>] 2 to 52 week ahead forecast for demand (top lines) and forecast surplus production (bottom lines).<br />
Note the notch in the domed winter peak is the Christmas period, where many businesses usually close. </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kF5DtnlF7II/Xp9en8RlDTI/AAAAAAAAxb0/4TJNMcP_MZ8qp6QFz--J8-0yXHTuWoNAgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/index3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="242" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-kF5DtnlF7II/Xp9en8RlDTI/AAAAAAAAxb0/4TJNMcP_MZ8qp6QFz--J8-0yXHTuWoNAgCK4BGAYYCw/s400/index3.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.nordpoolgroup.com/Market-data1/GB/Auction-prices/UK/Daily/?view=table">Nord Pool</a>] grid price data graphed by a friend (£ per Mwh).</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The price of electricity production in the UK has typically followed gas wholesale, given that's been the prominent fuel source. Although, it seems the majority of its capacity is only used to compensate for windless days, now. Gas and electric prices had overall been dropping for the last couple of years, from around £60 per Mwh in 2018, down under £30 before the shutdowns this year.<br />
<br />
I'm not sure how much natural gas production is tied to operations simultaneously extracting crude oil. Simply burning off gas at oil sites via "<i>routine flaring</i>" has been discouraged/reduced, for obvious environmental reasons [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Routine_flaring">Wikipedia</a>]. So there must be a significant overlap. Which makes me wonder how a crash of oil production will knock onto gas availability and and price. Hopefully not an issue, when power use is down simultaneously.<br />
<br />
It surprised me a bit how big a proportion of our power now comes from wind (mostly off-shore, thanks to Tory schemes and a ban of cheaper but ugly on-shore). Although it's been exactly a decade since I blogged speculating about a "green energy bubble" in the decade just gone [<a href="https://lewyland.blogspot.com/2010/04/utility-of-green-energy-bubble.html">Blogger</a>]. I don't <i>think</i> we've had one..? If anything we've just seen an oil price bust, of course. But it's going to be impossible to judge what markets were in a bubble, given the circumstances of <i>everything</i> crashing at once and bailout money everywhere. Also no sure if solar PV is as big as I would have expected (in sunnier countries, anyway). Might have to take a look back into that some time...<br />
<br />
At the end of last year, thousands of homes on new smart-energy tariffs were actually paid to use power, one windy night, when wind turbines were producing a record 16GW of power, on their own [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/dec/09/thousands-were-paid-to-use-extra-renewable-electricity-on-windy-weekend">Guardian</a>]. A little like the US oil market was paying to offload oil just now. Smart consumption is certainly a promising and potentially important way to help balance diurnal variation in power demand, particularly by tweaking timing of electric vehicle charging (or home power walls, etc). I don't know how that would feed into the main grid markets (mentioned above). Perhaps that complexity has been an obstacle to implementing this with domestic customers, so far.<br />
<br />
Anyway, with the UK's now thankfully aborted deadly full infection gambit, that would have meant "<i>energy network contingency plans are likely to be tested to the limit</i>" [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/mar/17/energy-firms-draw-up-crisis-plans-amid-fears-of-loss-of-80-of-staff">Guardian</a>]. Hopefully we don't have to worry about that now (fingers crossed). I'm not sure if power companies are still putting off non-essential maintenance. If so, I hope that doesn't drag on over the whole course of the epidemic suppression, potentially building up dangerous technical arrears.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-22"> </a>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>► 2020-04-22</b> - Perspective:</span><br />
<br />
<a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iV6CEBBgDVI/XqAzzCsnVdI/AAAAAAAAxd4/rZDgrwPO0HE0Reusy9sm4fJkQxzgBThJgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/LeMePRuX_400x400.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-iV6CEBBgDVI/XqAzzCsnVdI/AAAAAAAAxd4/rZDgrwPO0HE0Reusy9sm4fJkQxzgBThJgCK4BGAYYCw/s200/LeMePRuX_400x400.jpg" width="200" /></a>• <b>Peter Kolchinsky</b> (biotech investor, virologist and author) has compiled an excellent FAQ super-thread of the (technical) coronavirus topics he's explained for non-experts [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850557385572353">Twitter</a>].<br />
<br />
- Why we have <b>no vaccine for common cold</b> causing coronaviruses [<a href="https://www.city-journal.org/covid-19-our-attitude-toward-vaccines">City-Journal</a>]. They're entirely possible to develope but not economic; coronaviruses only cause ~20% of colds, but you'd need far higher coverage to be able to market to customers. Symptoms too mild to motivate people and headaches with anti-vaxer claims add a burden to anything.<br />
<br />
- A Sars-Cov-2 <b>vaccine (and immunity) should last </b>for a fairly long time [<a href="https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine">City-Journal</a>]. It has a single strand of RNA code, unlike flu viruses which have 8 separate sections (which is rare). Those are able to swap sections with other flu viruses to make totally different species very rapidly. Bad flu years happen when a strong strain picks up an unusual part (e.g. from an animal flu) and the yearly vaccine doesn't protect against it (takes 6 months to reformulate). Both virus types have very slow genetic drift from random individual mutations, but all Sars-Cov-2 (so far) still looks essentially the same to our immune systems.<br />
<br />
- Why <b>Sars2 virus is worst than Sars1</b> (2003) [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1246975275021348865">Twitter thread</a>]. It takes it's time replicating in the upper respiratory tract (e.g. throat), being infectious before causing symptoms. Unlike Sars1, that hit the lungs hard immediately, much more distinctive. 50% of infected develop serum antibodies within 7 days, all within 14 days [<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2196-x">Nature</a>].<br />
<br />
- Antibodies and <b>antibody tests</b>, false positives and negative [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1249475238636765184">Twitter thread</a>]. Vaccines train the immune system to identify and respond to the real virus by showing it pieces of the virus particle. Characteristic protein structure features identified by (and so stimulating) the immune system are called <b>antigens</b>. Antibodies bind to specific antigens. Antibody tests contain virus antigens (bits of it's key features) stuck to a test plate. Antibodies from patient blood will stick to them after washing away the rest of the serum. A additive then binds to any antibodies remain (should be just ones for Sars2), highlighting them visually.<br />
<br />
- Flaws in high <b>asymptomatic </b>prevalence studies [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251585935994740736">Twitter Thread</a>]. Analogy of a town mayor mistakenly declaring getting shot in the head is far more common than we thinks and hence less deadly. Statistically, a test with (an extremely high) 99% <i>sensitivity</i> will return a negative result for 1 out of 100 infected. A test with 99% <i>specificity </i>with return a positive result in 1 out of 100 uninfected. A huge problem with random sampling population prevalence studies, given that if only 1% actually have it, your results will on average show 2 out of 100 positive results. Massively skewing results, or burying them inside error bars. Some of the tests used in these studies have <90% specificity! Plus other major study design issues. In this Santa Clara study [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf">MedRxiv</a>] they recruited subjects by them volunteering for a free test (going to get more with symptoms), then scaling the very disproportionate subject demographics to match general population.<br />
<br />
- Apparent <b>reinfections</b> are probably just testing errors [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1244029896453754880">Twitter Thread</a>]. See above. Also basic testing errors with swab sample collection. Plus the PCR tests can be so sensitive as to detect lingering bits of inactive virus material that that body's not finished cleaning up. Genuine re-infection after just a couple weeks doesn't make sense, because of the fundamental way in which the body revs up antibody production to fight pathogens.<br />
<br />
- Is <b>gargling</b> effective to prevent and treat? [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850567317626880">Twitter thread</a>] Some studies show, maybe a little bit, although iodine gargling may have increased risk of infection in one study.<br />
<br />
- <b>Hydroxy</b><b>chloroqine</b> (HCQ) and other anti-malarials, probably don't work and we should stop testing them [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850572963119107">Twitter thread</a>]. Two studies [<a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1">MedRxiv</a> | <a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060558v1">MedRxiv</a>] showed it doesn't work (and has dangerous side effects). Chris Martenson [<a href="https://youtu.be/COQY0et2J-E?t=854">Peak Prosperity YouTube</a>] points out for the continued (5 total) studies with negative findings, that none seem to have used zinc as part of the treatment (which may be essential to HCQ's action and deficient in many people).<br />
<br />
- Virus physically enters cells within seconds to minutes [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850568806645760">Twitter thread</a>].<br />
<br />
- We should permanently <b>stop shaking hands</b> [<a href="https://twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1251850571553943557">Twitter thread</a>].<br />
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<br />
<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qLMGYYIsm7k/XqDPfD_ewjI/AAAAAAAAxgU/7_MnP2sBhrYN3EWesOB6kt5rlK6zUx5mgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/2020-04-23%2BPulse%2Boximeter%2B1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qLMGYYIsm7k/XqDPfD_ewjI/AAAAAAAAxgU/7_MnP2sBhrYN3EWesOB6kt5rlK6zUx5mgCK4BGAYYCw/s320/2020-04-23%2BPulse%2Boximeter%2B1.jpg" width="313" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Typical pulse oximeter, usually cheap and reliable,<br />
but already on back order or overpriced online.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
• "<b>Silent Hypoxia</b>" - is how an ER doc in New York is describing the core symptom of Covid-19. That patients can be sat their on the mobile phone with blood oxygen saturation at a terrifyingly low 50%. Breathing doesn't become overly laboured because the lungs are still able to remove CO2 (carbon dioxide) from the body, which is usually the physiological trigger for such things.<br />
<br />
His explanation is a burgeoning understanding that the "<i>coronavirus attacks lung cells that make surfactant</i>" that helps alveoli stay open between breaths. Inflammation collapses the 'air sacs' further, worsened by unconsciously more intense breathing. Yet lungs remain "<i>compliant</i>" (not stiff or heavy with lots of fluid), until oxygenation takes a precipitous dive and the condition goes south potentially very rapidly. It's a fairly mundane sounding, simple structural mechanism, no fancy new heme attack mechanism involve or anything.<br />
<br />
Because of this scarily stealthy progression, he recommends that anyone with early Covid-19 symptoms should monitor their blood oxygen levels closely. Hospitals are generally accepting patients at less than 92% SpO2. A nice solid, proactive piece of advice that was picked up a couple of places I saw [<a href="https://www.healthrising.org/blog/2020/04/22/coronavirus-silent-hypoxia-pulse-oximeter/#comment-970666">HealthRising</a> | <a href="https://twitter.com/carolecadwalla/status/1252863305267306499">Twitter</a>]. But given that the cheap consumer devices were already sold out for a month or so, with the remaining listings being overpriced (and potentially dodgy), I wonder if other systems to assess hypoxia (remotely) might be deployable, as in the 2017 paper that links it to voice stress analysis [<a href="https://www.jsams.org/article/S1440-2440(17)31191-X/fulltext">JASMS</a>].<br />
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<br />
<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I4LGpBaxczk/XqAqAmZUB2I/AAAAAAAAxdg/AL9NmuZ2NSU4uwwiYkNlJy_VCx-RSA_YQCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_61069930-83f5-11ea-bbbb-ff4639fb83e2-standard.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-I4LGpBaxczk/XqAqAmZUB2I/AAAAAAAAxdg/AL9NmuZ2NSU4uwwiYkNlJy_VCx-RSA_YQCK4BGAYYCw/s400/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_61069930-83f5-11ea-bbbb-ff4639fb83e2-standard.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab">FT</a>]</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
• The Financial Times has extrapolated ahead using weekly ONS figures for total UK deaths to produce a conservative estimate of <b>41,102 excess deaths</b>, to date, due to the pandemic [<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab">FT</a>]. Plot on the right.<br />
<br />
<b>More than double</b> the 17,337 officially confirmed dead from the virus (in hospitals). With the additional deaths split between homes and care homes.<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0idemvbf450/XqAyRE2g3gI/AAAAAAAAxds/KsWY-rZlmYAaVtiNLr2IeXWp-HqJpp4zACK4BGAYYCw/s1600/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_b82c6ec0-83f4-11ea-8d9b-3ddaa1e421ff-standard.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="300" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0idemvbf450/XqAyRE2g3gI/AAAAAAAAxds/KsWY-rZlmYAaVtiNLr2IeXWp-HqJpp4zACK4BGAYYCw/s400/https%2B_d6c748xw2pzm8.cloudfront.net_prod_b82c6ec0-83f4-11ea-8d9b-3ddaa1e421ff-standard.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa6ab">FT</a>] Total deaths far in excess of average for this time of year.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
The care home deaths will peak after hospital deaths, as they are largely being seeded by recovering Covid patients being moved out for ongoing care. Where workers are even less well provisioned with PPE and have largely been overlooked by the public focus on NHS.<br />
<br />
It's A massive, glaring flaw in our overall pandemic strategy, that makes a mockery of the original notions of "<i>cocooning</i>" the elderly and vulnerable (explained by Valance at the first conference where they were planning a full scale unsuppressed outbreak).<br />
<br />
This new analysis validates all the anecdotal reports in this [<a href="https://youtu.be/j6Z2RvoR1Wg?t=505">Channel 4 YouTube</a>] about hidden care home deaths. Apparently GPs so overworked that they sometimes don't even see the deceased before writing death certificates and even when they are pretty sure a death was Covid-19 related they may leave that off the certificate in favour of some generic cause associated with old age. Of course, there's no testing to confirm anyway. Discussion also of the national guideline criterion for deciding who to discount from ICU care (e.g. if too frail):<br />
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It's clearly an horrendous position to be in, as a care worker. Knowing that you may be killing those in your care just by looking after them, when unable to access equipment or testing, ti know if you should isolate. And the hopelessness of containing spread, once it's in a home, when the hospitals won't even take the elderly sick. <br />
<br />
As of a week ago, there were 25% of care homes (350) in London had officially seen cases in residents [<a href="https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-one-in-four-care-homes-in-london-hit-by-covid-19-11975198">SkyNews</a>]. And Sweden is in a very similar position, where there's anger at lack of protective measures as the virus ravages the vulnerable [<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/19/anger-in-sweden-as-elderly-pay-price-for-coronavirus-strategy">Guardian</a>].<br />
<br />
An non-predictive look at excess deaths across a 10 countries was published in [<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html">TheNewYorkTimes</a>]. Greatly varying levels of extra deaths, with Belgium and Sweden currently show a very small negative number, which may be largely due to greater efforts to include non-hospital deaths in the official figures, but could also mean people aren't avoiding emergency care.<br />
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<a href="https://www.blogger.com/null" id="2020-04-23"> </a>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>► 2020-04-23</b> - More Science Summaries:</span><br />
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• Why we should <b>avoid <i>anyone </i>being infected </b>(not just vulnerable):<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; margin-left: 1em; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fP7CIgA7zSE/XqGKuA-JJlI/AAAAAAAAxhk/YuyEWXxmRY8Z9QG0l4-EUnCpVrNPnFVLgCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/1600x900_1587195076518.Lunge.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="183" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-fP7CIgA7zSE/XqGKuA-JJlI/AAAAAAAAxhk/YuyEWXxmRY8Z9QG0l4-EUnCpVrNPnFVLgCK4BGAYYCw/s320/1600x900_1587195076518.Lunge.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau/articoli/2020/04/tag-Coronavirus-Lungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html">Rainews</a>]</td></tr>
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German doctors found that 6 scuba divers, who each home quarantined with very mild infection symptom, all showed <b>substantial lung damage</b> upon examination [<a href="https://translate.google.com/translate?client=firefox-b-d&client=tw-ob&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rainews.it%2Ftgr%2Ftagesschau%2Farticoli%2F2020%2F04%2Ftag-Coronavirus-Lungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html">Google Translate Rainews</a>]. It would be very dangerous for them to participate in scuba diving again, because of the effects it has on lungs.<br />
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The doctors are extremely dubious that such extreme damage will ever heal. 2 showed substantial decrease in oxygen saturation 2 weeks after, due to lung shunt. For 2, their bronchi behaved like asthmatic's.<br />
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• Covid-19 is far from being just a lung disease. Here's an article giving a quick overview highlighting some of the <b>various major organs being attacked</b> in severe Covid-19 cases [<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes?fbclid=IwAR0vmkX7kzlpUl-JuaW5oQzBkoHl_pfoUhAWMrp3Wm43LWBsExJVx3W7bLc#">AAAS ScienceMag</a>].<br />
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A <b>whole system</b> perspective is certainly needed, with the progress of the disease so varied and many hypothesised mechanisms for systemic damage: atypical hypoxia, increased blood coagulation/clotting, treatment drug side effects, or just direct viral attack of the various tissues expressing more ACE2, including parts of the brain. (Brief summaries, right.)<br />
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: right; text-align: right;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YndF3Gmnh_c/XqGdJsoMntI/AAAAAAAAxmY/nUkRGvEHxDgx2sKeflTtG33w8Y51HjxUwCK4BGAYYCw/s1600/Cropper2020-04-23-14-31-15-8586722.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-YndF3Gmnh_c/XqGdJsoMntI/AAAAAAAAxmY/nUkRGvEHxDgx2sKeflTtG33w8Y51HjxUwCK4BGAYYCw/s400/Cropper2020-04-23-14-31-15-8586722.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">[<a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes?fbclid=IwAR0vmkX7kzlpUl-JuaW5oQzBkoHl_pfoUhAWMrp3Wm43LWBsExJVx3W7bLc#">AAAS ScienceMag</a>]</td></tr>
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<b>Kidney </b>damage is so prevalent that a shortage of dialysis machines is sometimes more of an issue than ventilators. A Wuhan cohort had 27% kidney failure. Another the 59% had signs of severe damage and those with acute injury more the 5 times more likely to die.<br />
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<b>Heart </b>and vasculature may be direction infected, with signs of damage very common and those with high blood pressure and heart conditions the most likely to suffer worst complications and death. Many have drastically higher D-dimer levels, a breakdown product of blood clots, which may cause heart attacks, pulmonary embolism in lungs, or stroke in the brain.<br />
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<b>Liver damage</b>, seen from elevated enzymes of about half of some patient studies. Could be largely from treatment drugs.<br />
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Diarrhoea common, at least 20% (as mentioned before), with <b>gut </b>very high in ACE2. But this symptom may prevent diagnosis with Covid-19 in many instances.<br />
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Major <b>neurological </b>problems (encephalitis, seizures, sympathetic storm, stroke) seen in at least 10%, but may be far high for those unconscious on ventilators. Any of the above systemic issues could cause/contribute to these. The common loss of smell suggests that virus might spread to brain direct through olfactory bulb, then there's ACE2 expressed in the neural cortex and brain stem.<br />
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• Focusing on the <b>Brain</b>, this [Wired] article explains 1/3 of all patients (of 200 in Wuhan) had neurological issues. It's important to recognise this, to avoid missed diagnoses. Also to change treatment modalities, given that most drugs don't penetrate the blood brain barrier. But it's hard to tell if neurological symptoms are secondary just to other issues.<br />
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<span class="css-901oao css-16my406 r-1qd0xha r-ad9z0x r-bcqeeo r-qvutc0">Michael VanElzakker, who studies ME/CFS (and PTSD) highlights that in general "</span>V<i>irus' ability to move along nerve tissue is a really underconsidered and important phenomenon</i>" [<a href="https://twitter.com/MBVanElzakker/status/1240014837301772291">Twitter</a>]. His hypothesis he's been trying to test, for the cause of ME/CFS, is ongoing vagus nerve viral infection, causing a permanent spurious illness response of the entire body's innate defences.<br />
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• WHO warn about <b>disruption to regular immunisation programmes</b> [<a href="http://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/events/events/2020/04/european-immunization-week-2020/statements/whounicef-joint-statement-maintaining-routine-immunization-services-vital-during-the-covid-19-pandemic">WHO</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/Azeem_Majeed/status/1252513745076736001">Twitter</a>]. While social distancing is almost certainly going to be cutting down on the transmission of many other communicable diseases, this factor could contribute to a resurgence after Covid responses end. Or there could be parallel outbreaks in countries unable to take social distancing measures. Covid outbreak interfering with e.g. suppressing a new Ebola outbreak (hopefully not).<br />
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• The Republic of <b>Ireland </b>is acting as a kind of control group for the UK, as it follows WHO advice while the North (part of UK) takes directions from London [<a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/coronavirus-ireland-is-one-island-with-two-very-different-death-rates-1.4234353">IrishTimes</a> via <a href="https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1252949950289371137">Twitter</a>]. It's not looking good for the North, despite a larger population and very close epidemic starting conditions, the South has only 2/3 the death rate. They had quicker lockdowns, expanded testing provision and persisted with contact tracing.<br />
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<span style="font-size: large;"><b>► Coming up</b></span>...<br />
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• Contact Tracing, privacy and authoritarian over-reach....<br />
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• CD147 receptor is a second cell entry mechanism for the virus...<br />
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• Some recovered patients lack immunity...<br />
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• Treatment, vaccine and testing development...<br />
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• Network Theory...<br />
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ZeroGravitashttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10255633322319663191noreply@blogger.com0