Covid-19 (Part 2) - Daily Updates

SARS-COV-2 - lipid bilayer with
ACE2 binding s protein spikes.

... Continuing on from my previous mega-post: "Covid-19: a deadly wake-up call to exponential growth?".

It seems the future is currently flying at us on a daily basis, so I'm still finding it hard not to hyper-focus on events and feel I may as well use this blog for catharsis.

I've ended up spending quite a lot of time talking about the antics of politicians, which I'd normal tell others to ignore, but in this instance the situation is so heavily dependant upon exactly what measures are announced, when and how the public reacts.

Index:
2020-03-29 Sun - Pointing Fingers
2020-03-30 Mon - Missing reports, farm labour, excess oil, Korean expert
2020-04-02 Thur - Symptoms, Vit treatment, Exit strategy
2020-04-03 Fri - Developments (under-reporting deaths in Europe vs China)
2020-04-04 Sat - Followup

2020-04-05 Sun - Science - GAVI, CRISPR, summer reprieve?
2020-04-06 Mon - Science 2 - ICU survival rates, Bio-molecular basis of virus
2020-04-07 Tue - Science 3 - BP med danger? Bio-molecular simulation explain all?

2020-04-08 Wed - Unintended Consequences (Advertising apocalypse, BoJo in ICU, etc)
2020-04-10 Fri - Unequal impact (racial, economic and geographic inequities)
2020-04-12 Sat - Dissecting government decision making, cats & dogs and creativity


► 2020-03-29 - Pointing Fingers:

• The domestic coronavirus outbreak seems to have given Boris Johnson (and other incumbent leaders around the world) political invincibility. The 'rally around the flag' effect has him up at a 73% approval rating, the highest for any conservative government since such metric began in 1943 [Bloomberg].

Which makes sense during a crisis or war, generally. This certainly fits with the vibe I get when talking to most of my friends (those who aren't politically polarised already). Although I saw one post hinting that there may also have been some astroturfing, with copy-pasted supportive sentiments on social media [Twitter]. (Probably insignificant in this context.)


• That record polling was even unaffected by the announcement of his infection (and both health secretaries, etc). Which The Daily Mail has attempted to pin on the EU, via chief negotiator Michel Barnier, who was also diagnosed a while before [The New European]:

It's laughably implausible, given Barnier's not even been to the UK recently, so it would have to have passed via an intermediary politician. Prince Charles or Nadine Dorries far more likely. The very risibility of this nonsense claim is probably the reason I saw it plastered all over my Twitter time-line. Again, right wing intimations going viral, for free spread of their repulsive rhetoric. Including me posting it here, to illustrate the point...

Covid-19: a deadly wake-up call to exponential growth?

With wall-to-wall coronovirus news now impossible to miss, I wanted to do a bit of a brain dump of my thoughts on and around this scary issue. For personal catharsis and reference, as much as to inform the few others who might read it. I think this will likely turn out to be the most significant event in my living memory, so far.😨


On the Curve: 

My perspective with this blog was very much underpinned by extropianism and the inevitability of exponential technological advances most famously expounded by Ray Kurzweil. So of course I've often been aware of how typical human thinking and expectations is unable to grasp exponential changes. E.g. how solar PV is due to come from seemingly nowhere to suddenly be providing abundant clean electricity for most of the globe.

I'm wondering if the exponential spread of the Covid-19/SARS-Cov-2 virus will be a turning point in public awareness for the power and immediate relevance of such non-linear growth rates. Certainly the initial spread appeared to follow an exponential curve [YouTube]:



China's figures now claim the rate of infection spread has peaked after their impressively agile response [Twitter thread]. Throwing up entire new hospitals in a couple weeks, switching (free!) healthcare provision and interaction to be more online, bringing in hospital staff from all over and locking down entire regions with high compliance.

It's great news, if accurate, given how much of the world's goods are supplied by China. There was much reporting (in Western media) of initial infection whistle-blowers being silenced/punished for descent against the state, perhaps frustrating potential for early containment (we don't know, and might not). But the virus was recognised pretty early and sequenced in record time. However, the heroic containment efforts [NY Times] may have only bought the rest of the world a few precious weeks to start preparing...


Epidemic Response: 

There's very good reason to be scared for a worst case scenario outbreak in the US, where testing has been abysmally lacking. Tests alone have been costing individuals thousands of dollars out of pocket and there's no protection for many workers to take sick leave (let alone as a precaution). Pretty strong incentives not to act responsibly.

Also, the Trump administration dismantled the pandemic response team, back in 2018, at the time of an Ebola outbreak [Independent, FP]. He put openly anti-science Vice President Pence in charge of the coronavirus response and Trump himself has been lying that the spread has been "stopped" [Independent].

A very similar situation in the UK, where Tory government has been defunding the NHS for a decade, purging international staff and heath workers with Brexit xenophobia and now with an untouchable majority PM Johnson is making terrifying babbling noises about the UK just "taking it on the chin" [Twitter Video] and allowing the infection to spread, effectively... 😱

The WHO's (arguably belated) declaration of a global Covid-19 pandemic, today (2020-03-11) sounds like a direct dig at these attitudes: "we were deeply concerned, both by the alarming spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction"! Complacency and lack of fear is arguably more scary than a little panic (although calm assertive action is the call of the day, now).

"Autonomous" by Annalee Newitz

Review:

A pretty straight forwards and compelling sci-fi read that I liked. I enjoyed the female central protagonist - James Bond age, scarred and entering a tryst with a hapless but permissive younger man, along the way. And the high (i.e. balanced) number of other strong female characters. Perhaps merely realistic, given the bio-science setting.

Its 2144 setting seems extremely conservative, to someone like myself. Quite possibly aimed at a more mainstream audience - it was, indeed optioned by AMC for a TV adaptation (admittedly what brought it to be on my read list). In terms of personal freedoms and distopia it even seems a little quaint, naive, compared to the (rapidly deteriorating) contemporary political situations in many countries.

I didn't really feel like the cover tag-line was justified, calling it the Neuromancer of biotech and AI. But that William Gibbson story is a little over-hyped itself (and outdated, now). The fictional science and technology felt pretty prosaic - under-ambitious in scope and impact. Except for a use of viruses (at the end) that seemed to jump the shark in implausibility. The AI are all human equivalent robots, with no hint at the influence of trans-(or even sub-)human AI. Let alone why there's been no Singularity, etc.

Specifics [SPOILERS]: