Covid-19 (Part 7) - The Battle Over Child Vaccinations and Long Covid (England/UK)

[Written on 2021-08-25 but unable to to finish due to increased ME/CFS impairment. Publishing 2021-09-16 just to have what's done out there, despite still missing most content on some topics.]

Previous Covid blog posts: Wave 1 - March/April 2020: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3; Wave 2 - Jan 2021: Part 4; Wave 3 - July/August 2021: Part 5, Part 6.

[Fig.1 data.gov.uk] Current (2021-08-25) UK state of Covid dashboard. (We have heave among the best health information reporting in the world!) Cases and hospitalisations continue to climb at a high level, respectively 25x and 11x the numbers of this time last year [Prof Pagel Twitter]. Despite it being mid-summer, usually the easiest time for our health service. 1st dose percentage recently took a small step backwards, with new eligibility of 16-18s (but little provision yet available, I believe).

As I worried in my Covid Part 4 "2021-02-11 point (2)", UK government's pandemic mitigation measures are being stripped away, now that our death rate is greatly diminished by vaccinations. Thankfully, these largely stayed a month or too longer than I expected. So the upsurge has been gradual, since Stage 3 lifting in May, with no further uptick on "Freedom Day" itself (19th July). I analysed the lack of uptick at the end of my part 5 post in sections (I) and (J).

Covid-19 (Part 6) - Calculating UK's Population Immunity to Delta...

This post follows on from my Part 5 Covid blog, which enumerated the problems with, and causes of, UK's apparently reckless re-opening. In the last section (I), I'd been examining the apparent downturn in cases, around the time of our "freedom day". It now looks clear that we were really seeing the end of the football peak (with a big pinch of school-kid case isolation, then finishing for summer) - a bonus peak on top of an overall continuing (slow) upwards trend in cases. Which has plateaued for now, probably (until football gatherings and school start up again, within the month!):

[Fig.1 - GovUK] Official stats show cases steady at ~25k/day, hospital admissions ~700/day.

The official R number, for rate of Covid spread, today is 0.8 to 1.1. I think this is averaged over a time period including some of the brief case drop. So, it looks like R = 1 would be a better approximation of our momentary trajectory. Which is pretty bad, given the high incidence of disease. But fairly ideal for us to take a look and see how far we are from herd immunity (section J, directly below). We're definitely a good way off, because we're at an effective R of ~1, while the population is still being relatively cautious, still a lot of mask use, summer holidays and no football, etc. So we should be able to work out how much of a reduction is coming from these NPIs (non-pharmacological interventions, i.e. stuff other than vaccines).

Actual calculations and results in point (6).

Update 2021-08-14: Summary of the APPG conference call that triggered "herd immunity mythical" headlines, catching the general public up roughly, to what I've concluded here. See (B) below.

Update 2021-08-19: new and clarified information on vaccine effectiveness, section (C).

Covid-19 (Part 5) - UK Government's Reckless Re-opening During Delta

Here we are again. In the alarming but familiar situation where the UK (or rather England's) covid-19 cases are soaring while government fails to act appropriately. The situation that kicked off my first posts, before the March 2020 peak: Part 1, Part 2, Part 3. Then for the even worst autumn/winter wave: Part 4... 

[Twitter]

... Except that this time, the death rate has been greatly diminished by vaccination: case-fatality rate down roughly 12-fold, from ~2% to 0.16% [Twitter]. For the older, vaccinated portion of society, at least. And as expected, it looks like high deaths really were the only thing holding our government back from pushing through herd immunity by full infection, with a reckless abandon that I feel is a crime against humanity.

Here's a somewhat concise list of reasons why their particular interpretation of "living with Covid" is so dangerous and unnecessary, how it's been enabled (A to D) and a possible upside (E). Followed by a brief overall look at the current pandemic situation in other parts of the world (F) and personal anecdotes (G). Finally, some nice graphs further down (H) that explorer some of the topics in more detail. {Update 2021-07-30: why did cases suddenly start to fall, just before re-opening (I) & (J)?}.

Covid-19 (Part 4) - The Brexit Resurgence

Updates index:

•  2021-01-10 - UK situational report - 12 reasons...
  
•  2021-01-16 - Reevaluating - lockdown 3 takes effect.
•  2021-01-18 - Surging inequalities.
•  2021-01-20 - (Minor additions.)
•  2021-01-29 - Contagion dynamics vs testing.
•  2021-02-11 - Vaccination & Immunity Outlook.

 

 ► 2021-01-10 Sitrep - 12 reasons things will get much worst!:

In the UK, we're back in a situation a lot like March, when our (so called) government was disastrously inactive in the face of rapid exponential growth of coronavirus infections. They seem to have given up on containing the spread again.

The scariness of inaction spurred me to write my first Covid-19 mega-blog post, initially about exponential transmission. Following up with part 2 and part 3. I looked at all aspects of the Covid situation (and beyond) in the Anglosphere and the world in general. I'll try to revisit some of those topics and my predictions, below, as and when I'm able.

Thankfully there was enough public alarm to instigate action from the bottom up. The much talk about the nature of exponential graphs, thereafter. But it seems we've largely been overlooking the multiplicative nature of case growth again! In different ways, perhaps.

In many ways, the situation is now far worst than March. Despite having 2 vaccines in use and a 3rd approved, way ahead of the absolute most optimistic 12-18 month time frame (that was the expectation 9 months ago). Plus other positive developments, including mandated mask use and refined treatment protocols apparently halving hospital mortality rates.

 

See Independent SAGE and Christina Pagel for the best briefings on the UK situation. But here's my rundown of why this peak is almost certain to be an order of magnitude worst than the first (in number of deaths, lasting illness, trauma, distress and collateral damage):

(1) More cases and hospitalisations than the April peak - a couple weeks ago (late December 2020) we exceeded the total number of Covid patients during the first outbreak peak (back in April) ~20k. As of 9th Jan we're 50% above that eye-watering level, at ~30k:

 

Official GOV.UK graph from 2021-01-09.

... And we're nowhere near peaking yet. The months long period of high transmission (from September school re-openings, onwards) has accumulated many severe cases. There's around 2 weeks delay before the ill become severe enough for hospitalisation. Then often (many) more weeks for recovery, while deaths typically come in at about a month after initial infection.

 

There were rapid rises in cases in early to mid December [Covid-19 app study], even before the last minute partially aborted Christmas holiday itself. In terms of hospitalisations, we're only just starting to see the impact of that [when I started typing this up on 5th Jan]. With New Year's celebrations then a perfect turbo charger, given the week long (asymptomatic) incubation period between events, multiplying up the effect.

 

From the graph below: the last 2 week period, with ~78% higher (50k-60k) cases than the fortnight before, hasn't manifested in the hospitalisation figures yet!:

 

Christina Pagel [Twitter].

UK Election 2017 - Why we need Corbyn's Labour (but won't get it)

Blog Post Contexts Index: ➤ Setting the Scene ...WHY CORBYN'S LABOUR NEEDS TO WIN: ➤ Inequality ➤ Xenophobia ➤ Economic stimulus ➤ Housing ➤ Shift focus towards environmental issues ➤ Stabilising financial markets ➤ Towards a Universal Basic Income (UBI) ➤ Positive Money (creation) ➤ Brexit ➤ Voting Conservative doesn't even benefit *anyone's* financial self interest ➤ Ill gotten gains ➤ Ironic hypocrisy ➤ The UK's Sanders ➤ Gentler kinder politics ➤ Think of the children ➤ Life or death (or exacerbated disability) ➤ Terrorist Attacks ➤ "1984" isn't an instruction manual! WHY CORBYN WON'T WIN: ➤ Not enough time! ➤ Biased press (the right wing legacy filter bubble) ➤ Memetics ➤ Thought free ➤ Personal appearances ➤ Lies and dirty tricks ➤ Censorship ➤ Gagging ➤ Gerrymandering ➤ Voter suppression ➤ Non-voters (in general) ➤ Party funding ➤ Dark money ➤ Dark ads and big data (I.e. the Facebook factor) ➤ Polls ➤ Committed to the big lie ➤ Terrorism ➤ Rained off ➤ Not mentioned, but not overlooked WHAT HAPPENS NEXT (SPECULATION): ➤ Tory majority ➤ Hung parliament

➤ Setting the Scene:

I've never voted Labour. Historically I have decried the traditional right vs left (Conservative vs Socialist) tug of war, in UK politics. It has ignored the liberal axis of debate - the need to protect the individual, our liberties (which have been ignored or actively trampled) and democracy itself. Hence railing for the Liberal Democrats in many previous elections (including back in 2010). But our politics has drifted so dangerously far to the right, now, that I feel a sizeable socialist swing is currently what's most desperately needed.

Also, the national Lib Dem party currently still resembles a smoking crater in the ground, having (unfairly) received all the blame and none of the credit for 5 years of relatively stable, but austere, government in coalition with  the dominant Tories. While the Greens (for whom I voted in 2015), are in no position to swing things (due to our hopeless electoral system), resorting to valiant tactical efforts, stepping aside to support other progressive parties, regardless.

The manifestos: Conservatives | Liberal Democrats |Green party | Labour Condensed summary of the Labour manifesto (by @LabourEoin, also here).

Under Ed Miliband's lukewarm leadership in the 2015 election, the Labour manifesto promised an uninspiring flavour of austerity-lite, having been painted into a corner by our right-wing press and their pet government's dominant (though bogus) 'paying off the national credit card' narrative.

Thankfully, this time, there's a very stark difference between team red and blue. Labour finally crawling out from the shadow of Thatcherism, after the pleasantly surprising result of their internal leadership election of Jeremy Corbyn in 2015. It was pretty miraculous, given the many interventions from high profile 'Blairite' party members (and the media), branding him as unelectable. Who were bizarrely proposing that the party failed to prevent David Cameron's Tories gaining a full majority due to Labour not being 'centrist' enough.

The 2 years since has seen almost non-stop infighting, with the legacy 'New Labour' guard, refusing to back their new leader, attempting a coop and forcing a second leadership election that Corbyn subsequently won, again, with a large majority of votes. This, despite internal manoeuvres aiming to shut out his ground swell of supports from voting (by banning new members from recent months and, perversely, levying a new fee).

This mirrored the frustratingly outrageous shenanigans in the run up to the 2016 US presidential election, within the democratic party, when Bernie Sanders was stupidly shut out of the running by the party establishment in favour Hillary Clinton. Despite him polling far better against Trump. Of course this lead to the death of real hope (for me anyway) and, of course, the disastrous result.

So anyway, we're very lucky to have a candidate, here, who seems prepared to genuinely push back against some of the worst excesses of the neo-liberal consensus. Although, years of devastating press bias against him, fuelled by suicidal party infighting, means he has started from a massive disadvantage. But with Labour having shrunk the Tory's 25 percentage point head-start, in the polls, down to (perhaps) as little as 3%, there is now arguably hope for change. And this is...

...WHY CORBYN'S LABOUR NEEDS TO WIN:

➤ Inequality:

Despite the global 'occupy' protests of 2011 being a distant memory, wealth inequality has only worsened here since. Ongoing cuts and pay freezes have held the majority back, while quantitative easing (QE) has pumped huge amounts of money upwards, inflating the assets of the already wealthy. (In addition to the usual factors still ticking along.)

In 2015 Greece's radical left alliance, the 'Syriza' government, bravely attempted to battle the brutally crushing austerity handed down to them by the EU (ultimately capitulating), as their central banks effectively laundered the Eurozone debts through the country. I blogged at length about this, siting the writings of Yanis Varoufakis, and tying in many other aspects of global macro-economics, finance, debt, etc.

Must of the Western world seems to have, in fact, exacerbated inequality, rather than redressing it. Obama's initially hopeful stimulus went some distance, but he was thoroughly shut down by endless dirty tricks by the Republican dominated congress for the rest of his 6 years.

➤ Xenophobia:

I think the rise of right-wing, anti-immigration sentiment (that fuelled Brexit, for example) is a direct result of this economic squeeze on the population's living standards. At risk of being overly reductive, I imagine this link stemming from an evolutionary instinct for tribes of hunter-gathers to disperse into smaller groups when the pickings are lean (ensuring that at least some survive).