Updates index:
► 2021-01-10 Sitrep - 12 reasons things will get much worst!:
In the UK, we're back in a situation a lot like March, when our (so called) government was disastrously inactive in the face of rapid exponential growth of coronavirus infections. They seem to have given up on containing the spread again.
The scariness of inaction spurred me to write my first Covid-19 mega-blog post, initially about exponential transmission. Following up with part 2 and part 3. I looked at all aspects of the Covid situation (and beyond) in the Anglosphere and the world in general. I'll try to revisit some of those topics and my predictions, below, as and when I'm able.
Thankfully there was enough public alarm to instigate action from the bottom up. The much talk about the nature of exponential graphs, thereafter. But it seems we've largely been overlooking the multiplicative nature of case growth again! In different ways, perhaps.
In many ways, the situation is now far worst than March. Despite having 2 vaccines in use and a 3rd approved, way ahead of the absolute most optimistic 12-18 month time frame (that was the expectation 9 months ago). Plus other positive developments, including mandated mask use and refined treatment protocols apparently halving hospital mortality rates.
See
Independent SAGE and
Christina Pagel for the best briefings on the UK situation. But here's my rundown of why this peak is almost certain to be
an order of magnitude worst than the first (in number of deaths, lasting illness, trauma, distress and collateral damage):
(1) More cases and hospitalisations than the April peak - a couple weeks ago (late December 2020) we exceeded the total number of Covid patients during the first outbreak peak (back in April) ~20k. As of 9th Jan we're 50% above that eye-watering level, at ~30k:
... And we're nowhere near peaking yet. The months long period of high transmission (from
September school re-openings, onwards) has accumulated many severe cases. There's around 2 weeks delay before the ill become severe enough for hospitalisation. Then often (many) more weeks for recovery, while deaths typically come in at about a month after initial infection.
There were rapid rises in cases in early to mid December [
Covid-19 app study], even before the
last minute partially aborted Christmas holiday itself. In terms of hospitalisations, we're only just starting to see the impact of that [
when I started typing this up on 5th Jan]. With New Year's celebrations then a perfect turbo charger, given the week long (asymptomatic) incubation period between events, multiplying up the effect.
From the graph below: the last 2 week period, with ~78% higher (50k-60k) cases than the fortnight before, hasn't manifested in the hospitalisation figures yet!:
